There is no doubt that the situation in northern Nigeria is deteriorating fast and now President Goodluck Jonathan has admitted as much.

No-one else in the government had dared say a word.

The frequency and scale of the attacks carried out by the militant group popularly known as Boko Haram forced the president to take action and to silence some of his critics who accuse him of being out of touch and slow to react.

"These terrorists and insurgents seem determined to establish control and authority over parts of our beloved nation and to progressively overwhelm the rest of the country," said President Jonathan in a televised address.

The tone of the speech was somewhat surprising.


Here was the president of the country effectively telling every Nigerian: "You are all in danger".

Perhaps it was aimed at getting widespread approval for the imminent military offensive.

The Nigerian military has promised "massive deployment of men and resources aimed at asserting the nation's territorial integrity."

Soldiers are being sent to the three states of Adamawa, Yobe and Borno - where the attack on Bama occurred last week.

Describing that attack, an army spokesman told the media that dozens of Boko Haram fighters had arrived in the town, some 70km (44 miles) from Maiduguri, the regional capital of Borno, before dawn in pick-up trucks mounted with heavy firepower as well as in buses.

Mali parallel
The militants killed police officers, soldiers and prison staff before releasing more than 100 inmates.

It was an unusual account coming from an army that has a reputation for playing down the number of casualties following Boko Haram attacks.

It is not clear how declaring a state of emergency in three north-eastern states will change the situation on the ground.


Comparisons have been made between Boko Haram and the Islamist rebels in Mali prior to the French military intervention in January.

Some analysts have suggested that if left to fester, there is little to stop Boko Haram from setting up its own Islamic institutions in the extreme north-east of the country.

Will more boots on the ground improve the situation?

Much will depend on how the troops behave.

Not for the first time, the Nigerian army has been accused of carrying out human rights abuses - last month in the town of Baga in Borno state, residents said soldiers targeted civilians and burnt homes in response to the killing of a soldier.

The military denied the accusations whilst at the same time stating that the militants were hiding amongst the civilian population.

"We call on all citizens to co-operate with our security agencies to ensure a return to normalcy within the shortest possible time," President Jonathan said in his address.

Amnesty?
It is a big ask.

In the already heavily militarised north of Nigeria, residents are hardly in a position to take sides.

Analysts argue that the military has already lost the battle for hearts and minds and residents feel trapped between the two sides of this murky conflict.

When a Reuters news agency journalist visited the battered town of Baga, he witnessed locals shouting abuse at soldiers.

The military faces an almost impossible task of defeating the militants without civilians paying an extremely heavy price.

President Jonathan does have another option.

Under pressure from northern politicians and religious leaders, he agreed to consider an amnesty for the militants despite the fact that he had earlier rejected the idea of dialogue.

Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau does not seem keen either.

"You talk of dialogue. You are free to say whatever you want but we will never stop our struggle," he said in the Hausa language in a recent video recording.

Seeing as the Islamist group is not a homogenous group, it is possible that some insurgents could be persuaded to adopt a peaceful path.

But as thousands of soldiers enter the increasingly militarised environment it seems highly unlikely that peace talks can gain any traction.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22546745

A good analysis of the current situation without taking any sides.
The success to mission depends on nigerian soldiers winning the hearts and minds of the locals or else we will drag on the conflict for years leading to disintegration of nigeria

Nigerian soldiers will never win this war because northern Muslims are solidly behind boko haram. Northern Muslims sees Nigerian soldiers as the enemy while they regard boko haram as fighting jihad and a legitimate war.

confusion247: Nigerian soldiers will never win this war because northern Muslims are solidly behind boko haram. Northern Muslims sees Nigerian soldiers as the enemy while they regard boko haram as fighting jihad and a legitimate war.

Then we should prepare for disintegration of nigeria.

I believe the military, thus, Nigeria will win d battle. Call it faith or anything but i know evil never triumphs over good.
May God help and protect JTF.
Long live JTF
long live our president
long live Nigeria

confusion247: Nigerian soldiers will never win this war because northern Muslims are solidly behind boko haram. Northern Muslims sees Nigerian soldiers as the enemy while they regard boko haram as fighting jihad and a legitimate war.

LOL. OK. Let the northern muslims begin to carry arms and fight the nigerian soldiers against boko haram.

qualified: I believe the military, thus, Nigeria will win d battle. Call it faith or anything but i know evil never triumphs over good.
May God help and protect JTF.
Long live JTF
long live our president
long live Nigeria

Which god exactly? allah or oduduwa?

qualified: I believe the military, thus, Nigeria will win d battle. Call it faith or anything but i know evil never triumphs over good.
May God help and protect JTF.
Long live JTF
long live our president
long live Nigeria

Why dont we do analysis of the situation, instead of saying god will protect JTF .

EKONGKING:

Why dont we do analysis of the situation, instead of saying god will protect JTF .

analysis? Pls wht kind of analysis are u talking about? Do one, let me see.
God of peace and justice will protect JTF. They are fighting for d safety of Nigerians

Yes Nigeria can quell Boko Haram insurgency in the short run by massive deployment of troops but in the long run, the effort will be fruitless. Boko Haram is as a result of a breakdown of the society, all the structures that make up a society had broken down, especially in remote northern towns and villages, - the police, the judiciary, the social services, schools, infrastructures, everything. And Boko Haram came in to fill the vacuum created by absence of government as nature abhors a vacuum.

Imagine,Boko haram having recruitment and training centres and taking control of numerous local governments for months now and most Nigerians including government officials are unaware.

So unless, the armed forces would stay permanently to police the towns and villages, man the borders and perform customs and immigration services, provide some form of social services, then the Boko Haram insurgents would return as soon as the army leaves.

confusion247: Nigerian soldiers will never win this war because northern Muslims are solidly behind boko haram. Northern Muslims sees Nigerian soldiers as the enemy while they regard boko haram as fighting jihad and a legitimate war.

You are a fool, if you dont know go and find out, the number of muslims that were killed as a result of Boko Haram attacks are far more than the number of christians that were killed by Boko haram. Boko haram kills both Muslims and Christians at their respective places of religious and sometimes in their respective houses. Infact, Boko haram was formed, sponsor and planned to destroy Northern Nigeria by western hypocrisy and the enemies within.

hinal: You are a fool, if you dont know go and find out, the number of muslims that were killed as a result of Boko Haram attacks are far more than the number of christians that were killed by Boko haram. Boko haram kills both Muslims and Christians at their respective places of religious and sometimes in their respective houses. Infact, Boko haram was formed, sponsor and planned to destroy Northern Nigeria by western hypocrisy and the enemies within.

pls check if ur brain is still in ur skull or it has relocated to ur as.s?
Bh has killed more Muslims in d churches they were bombing every Sunday?
Lazy Northerners always looking for a way to blame their dumb undeveolpment on others.