payless:


I agree with you. Buhari is the most popular politician from the North. His only problem is finding votes from the south. Youths born in the south between 1980 and 1993 overwhelmingly have unfavorable opinion of Buhari. The youths make-up of more than 65% of votes from the south-west.

Like i said, the influence of ACN will sway a lot of young SW and especially Yoruba voters. Another influence that could sway them will be Buhari's deputy who will definitely come from the South. Even a vice from the SW is not advisable bcause the party already has a hold on the SW. They have to endeavour not to kill a bird with two stones instead they should kill two birds with a stone. A deputy from other parts of the South will make sense.

I know Buhari has won popular votes in the past if you eliminate PDP's manipulation especially in 2007. However, it would be wrong to make the APC seem like a platform only designed for Buhari in 2015. It goes beyond that.

I am certain the APC will surprise us with its Presidential/VP candidates in 2015.

mikeansy:

That followership is saturated and at peak level. Buhari will not get votes outside his stronghold. The only way Buhari wins an election is if he is not running against an incumbent and then he is the only candidate from North running against like 5 popular southerners who will split the Southern/Christain vote.

Even at that the election will require a run off because Buhari will never satisfy the requirement to win outright. Then once again Buhari will fail in the run off.

I think the best person with a chance to unsit Jonathan is actually Fashola. Reason is simple. The Hausa Fulani North by default just will not vote Jonathan. Fashola being a Muslim will carry North West and North East and as Yoruba will carry South West. Jonathan will have South South and South East sown up.

The battle ground will now be North Central.

Fashola being a more enlightened and articulate leader will wow young Nigerians and the middle-class in most of the civilised capitals in Nigeria like Lagos and Abuja.

There will also be pockets of opposition in the South against Jonathan. People who will compare Fashola and Jonathan side by side and see through the fact that one of them has a clear idea of what leadership is all about and then the other simply has no business running a LGA but has somehow found himself to the Presidency.

Trust me candidate Buhari is the best thing for the PDP. The election will be a walk in the park! Buhari is so easy to defeat!

By the bolded, you're over-estimating the political education of the average electorate.

Fashola is no different from the likes of Pat Utomi etc. If ACN fields Fashola, the will lose and woefully at that. Fashola will only be able to win the SW states but what happens to the SS(Their son is contesting) and the SE(their cousin is constesting) and the North? That will be a political suicide if you ask me. Don't forget that making fashola the presidential candidate will also mean making a Northern Christian(a northern minority) his deputy.

mikeansy:

There was an ACN candidate in the last election and there was also a CPC candidate in the last election.

South West voted the opposition at guber level but voted Jonathan at Presidential level.

What won Jonathan the last election was popularity of the incumbency plus the christain vote.

The attitutde of Christain voters to Buhari and their attitude towards Fashola just wont be the same.

Nigeria may be roughly evenly split between the North and South but there about 60% christains compared to Muslim. Buhari's inability to shed off his anti-christain reputation is an electoral liability.

it does not matter who Buhari's VP candidate is he will never win an election in Nigeria.

Any candidate that cant even get 10% of the vote in any region of the country should not be standing for election!

Furnish the source of your claim that there are 60% Christains and 40% Muslims in Nigeria. Some also have the view that there are more muslims in Nigeria than Christaians without facts. I don't really know the exact number and I really want to see it. Some of you just sentimentally cook-up numbers depending on your religious view.

This South West People Sef

Mallam El-Rufia will definitely do better than Fashola who will this time deport Nigerians to the borders of Benin Republic and Cameroon

mikeansy:
I think the best person with a chance to unsit Jonathan is actually Fashola. Reason is simple. The Hausa Fulani North by default just will not vote Jonathan. Fashola being a Muslim will carry North West and North East and as Yoruba will carry South West.

The election will be a walk in the park! Buhari is so easy to defeat!

mikeansy:

There was an ACN candidate in the last election and there was also a CPC candidate in the last election.

South West voted the opposition at guber level but voted Jonathan at Presidential level.

What won Jonathan the last election was popularity of the incumbency plus the christain vote.

The attitutde of Christain voters to Buhari and their attitude towards Fashola just wont be the same.

Nigeria may be roughly evenly split between the North and South but there about 60% christains compared to Muslim. Buhari's inability to shed off his anti-christain reputation is an electoral liability.

it does not matter who Buhari's VP candidate is he will never win an election in Nigeria.

Any candidate that cant even get 10% of the vote in any region of the country should not be standing for election!

Nigerian voters don't care much about the religion of a candidate but about where the candidate comes from. So, that counts for little.

payless:


Furnish the source of your claim that there are 60% Christains and 40% Muslims in Nigeria. Some also have the view that there are more muslims in Nigeria than Christaians without facts. I don't really know the exact number and I really want to see it. Some of you just sentimentally cook-up numbers depending your religious view.

the records of census in Nigeria are clearly not to be trusted but how can muslims be more than christains in Nigeria? lets not digress from the topic but Plateau, Benue, are majority christain states in the North Central, there are also large populations of christains in Kogi, Kwara, adamawa, Taraba, Nasarawa, Southern Kaduna, Kebbi.

Yes you have Muslims in the South West but its not enough to dent the population of christains in North Central and North East.
There is no statistics to prove this as Nigeria has never included religion in census data. But anyway lets not digress you can believe what you like.

mikeansy:

the records of census in Nigeria are clearly not to be trusted but how can muslims be more than christains in Nigeria? lets not digress from the topic but Plateau, Benue, are majority christain states in the North Central, there are also large populations of christains in Kogi, Kwara, adamawa, Taraba, Nasarawa, Southern Kaduna, Kebbi.

Yes you have Muslims in the South West but its not enough to dent the population of christains in North Central and North East.
There is no statistics to prove this as Nigeria has never included religion in census data. But anyway lets not digress you can believe what you like.

You do not have facts to support your claim. Don't forget that concentration of Muslims in Kano alone is more than the entire Christian population in North-central. Muslims argue they are more in number and Christians say the same thing sentimentally. If you have the fact, post it and let's see it. I believe you are just being sentimental.

payless:


You do not have facts to support your claim. Don't forget that concentration of Muslims in Kano alone is more than the entire Christian population in North-central. Muslims argue they are more in number and Christians say the same thing sentimentally. If you have the fact, post it and let's see it. I believe you are just being sentimental.

There's also no fact that the Mislim population in Kano alone dwarfs the entire Christian population in the North-Central. Infact, that's preposterous.

Afam4eva:
Nigerian voters don't care much about the religion of a candidate but about where the candidate comes from. So, that counts for little.

They actually do. An Igbo business man who has no problem borrowing from an Islamic bank will most likely vote for GEJ than a Ribadu for example just because he feels GEj is closer to his tribe and religious background.

I don't care how brilliant a Rochas Okorocha is, he will struggle against a Salisu Buhari in the North.

The late Ojukwu spent a good part of his childhood in Lagos Island. He had no hope of winning an election there.

Ngwakwe: Why do Opinion Editors/Writers in Nigeria delighted in writing much and saying little.

The grand purpose of APC is to return Political Power to the North come 2015 and to stop Goodluck Jonathan from restructuring the Country towards Merit as against Quota System that has kept us underdeveloped.

It has become clearer by the day that APC's form of opposition is becoming anti-people and to restore status quo ante were the Northern Elites shared Oil blocs among themselves and the remainder to their frontmen.

Nigeria is undergoing restructuring and should be allowed to work for all its citizens.

The time of enjoying the spoils of war is over, let's move on as one united country or let's part peacefully.

What kind of restructuring? Corruption restructuring or what? If Gej can truly sacrifice himself for this nation,He needs no one to campaign for him to win in 2015.

If the elections are free and fair or not in Nigeria, PDP will continue to win until the hell freezes up or a military coup that will abolish political parties and yet restart another "non-independent" electoral commission that will mandate Nigerians to yet form another sets of political parties. The party which the boys in khaki want to win the initial election will continue the circle.

Nigeria is what it is, a jungle.

It is very Nigerian and practical idiocy to introduce an association known for nothing such as All Progressives Congress (APC) into the discussion. Until the so-called APC is registered as a political party, it does not deserve a mention in intellectual discussion bordering on political parties.

maclatunji:

They actually do. An Igbo business man who has no problem borrowing from an Islamic bank will most likely vote for GEJ than a Ribadu for example just because he feels GEj is closer to his tribe and religious background.

I don't care how brilliant a Rochas Okorocha is, he will struggle against a Salisu Buhari in the North.

The late Ojukwu spent a good part of his childhood in Lagos Island. He had no hope of winning an election there.

I made reference to religion and not ethnicity. Your post supports my assertion. It's more about ethnicity and than Religion.

Afam4eva:
There's also no fact that the Mislim population in Kano alone dwarfs the entire Christian population in the North-Central. Infact, that's preposterous.

If you go by the census and Kano Sate being predominantly Muslim, you have to make that conclusion. Taraba, Nasarawa,Kogi, Benue and Plateau total population is still less than population of Kano Sate.

payless:


If you go by the census and Kano Sate being predominantly Muslim, you have to make that conclusion. Taraba, Nasarawa,Kogi, Benue and Plateau total population is still less than population of Kano Sate.

I can't remember the census ever including the religion of Nigerians. Do we know the ratio of Muslims to Chrritians in Kano and vice-versa in the North-Central? Even the census figures cannot be trusted.

Afam4eva:
Like i said, the influence of ACN will sway a lot of young SW and especially Yoruba voters. Another influence that could sway them will be Buhari's deputy who will definitely come from the South. Even a vice from the SW is not advisable bcause the party already has a hold on the SW. They have to endeavour not to kill a bird with two stones instead they should kill two birds with a stone. A deputy from other parts of the South will make sense.

Good analysis but my fear is that Yoruba is not predictable. If the Vice president is not going to come from SW but other south state,that means ACN Governors have a lot to do. I see them APC winning if they can go this way.

Afam4eva:
I can't remember the census ever including the religion of Nigerians. Do we know the ratio of Muslims to Chrritians in Kano and vice-versa in the North-Central? Even the census figures cannot be trusted.

I never said census includes religion. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to know Kano Sate is predominantly Muslims, just as Enugu, Anambra, Calabar, Rivers, Abia....... are predominantly Christans. I have been to Kano, Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Kebbi, Niger, Kogi, Plateau and few other states. I can say only Kaduna, Bornu, and Benue have large population of Christians in the North. Others North central states do too but the total population of those states is at minimal.


My point is; no one knows if there are more Muslims in Nigeria or more Christians in Nigeria. People should stop being sentimental. They should provide prove to support their claims if there is any.

payless:


I never said census includes religion. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to know Kano Sate is predominantly Muslims, just as Enugu, Anambra, Calabar, Rivers, Abia....... are predominantly Christans. I have been to Kano, Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Kebbi, Niger, Kogi, Plateau and few other states. I can say only Kaduna, Bornu, and Benue have large population of Christians in the North. Others North central states do too but the total population of those states is at minimal.


My point is; no one knows if there are more Muslims in Nigeria or more Christians in Nigeria. People should stop being sentimental. They should provide prove to support their claims if there is any.

I never said there were not more Muslims in Kano than Christians. I was just attacking the assertion you made about the Muslims in Kano being more than the Christians in the North Central.

payless:


You do not have facts to support your claim. Don't forget that concentration of Muslims in Kano alone is more than the entire Christian population in North-central. Muslims argue they are more in number and Christians say the same thing sentimentally. If you have the fact, post it and let's see it. I believe you are just being sentimental.

do you have facts to say Muslims are more?

post yours!

what is the population of Muslims in Kano? You surely dont know that number!

From the census data you can only say the population of kano, but you can not say the population of muslims in Kano.

if you know the figures let us know.

mikeansy:

do you have facts to say Muslims are more?

post yours!

He never said Muslims were more. I guess he was playing the devil's advocate.

payless:


I never said census includes religion. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to know Kano Sate is predominantly Muslims, just as Enugu, Anambra, Calabar, Rivers, Abia....... are predominantly Christans. I have been to Kano, Kaduna, Nasarawa, Benue, Kebbi, Niger, Kogi, Plateau and few other states. I can say only Kaduna, Bornu, and Benue have large population of Christians in the North. Others North central states do too but the total population of those states is at minimal.


My point is; no one knows if there are more Muslims in Nigeria or more Christians in Nigeria. People should stop being sentimental. They should provide prove to support their claims if there is any.

going by your analogy, suggesting that there is a high concentration of muslims in Kano without providing any data is also being sentimental.

you can not have it both ways you know.

mikeansy:

do you have facts to say Muslims are more?

post yours!

what is the population of Muslims in Kano? You surely dont know that number!

From the census data you can only say the population of kano, but you can not say the population of muslims in Kano.

if you know the figures let us know.

I don't have the number and I haven't said there are more Muslims in Nigeria. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Bornu, Kebbi, Zamfara, Niger, Jigawa have large number of Muslim population. You also don't have to be a rocket scientist to know Abia, Anambra, Enugu, Akwa-Ibom, Imo have prodominantly large number of Christains.

Afam4eva:
He never said Muslims were more. I guess he was playing the devil's advocate.

No one is playing devel advocate here. I just don't agree when people argue sentimentally. You will be surprised if you know my religion. You might know if you can go through some my posts.

mikeansy:

going by your analogy, suggesting that there is a high concentration of muslims in Kano without providing any data is also being sentimental.

you can not have it both ways you know.

Kano is predominantly Mulsim just as Anambra or Enugu is Christian.

payless:


If you go by the census and Kano Sate being predominantly Muslim, you have to make that conclusion. Taraba, Nasarawa,Kogi, Benue and Plateau total population is still less than population of Kano Sate.

The bolded is not true!

payless:


No one is playing devel advocate here. I just don't agree when people argue sentimentally. You will be surprised if you know my religion. You might know if you can go through some my posts.

you are also arguing sentimentally when you say because Kano is "predominantly" muslim and hence the population of muslims in kano must be more than christains in North Central as a whole.

Just as I do not have any data to back my claim, you also have no data to back up this claim.

you can not call mine sentiment and calls yours common sense!

Both of us are drawing inference from what we can see in the absence of data backing either claims.

A muslim-muslim ticket by the opposition is a no -no , it will give PDP a easy punch line and a propaganda campaign against such ticket will travel faster than wild fire, taking in to cognisance the sentimental sensibilities of an average nigerian.

I have a feeling APC will not field Buhari, but look for a candidate who will made to "sit on buhari's shoulder" at campaign in the northern zone.

emiye:

The bolded is not true!

Don't get me wrong here. There are more muslims in those predominantly Christian States than Christians in those predominantly Muslim states. The Hausas are not tolerants when it comes to religion. Christians are being intimidated in those predominant Muslim states and Christians have no choice but to stay away. Christians don't live in their states because their lives are in danger. Most Christians who live in the North are most Igbos.


The population you see in those predominatly Muslim states reflects the number of Muslims in thos states. It is fair to say Kano is 97% muslim population.

payless:


Don't get me wrong here. There are more muslims in those predominantly Christian States than Christians in those predominantly Muslim states. The Hausas are not tolerants when it comes to religion. Christians are being intimidated in those predominant Muslim states and Christians have no choice but to stay away. Christians don't live in their states because their lives are in danger. Most Christians who live in the North are most Igbos.


The population you see in those predominatly Muslim states reflects the number of Muslims in thos states. It is fair to say Kano is 97% muslim population.

Do you have data to prove the bolded?

can it also be classed as being sentimental?

mikeansy:

you are also arguing sentimentally when you say because Kano is "predominantly" muslim and hence the population of muslims in kano must be more than christains in North Central as a whole.

Just as I do not have any data to back my claim, you also have no data to back up this claim.

you can not call mine sentiment and calls yours common sense!

Both of us are drawing inference from what we can see in the absence of data backing either claims.

Mine is logic. Did you agree when I said Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Abia, Akwa-Ibom are predominantly Christians and that makes the South predominatly Christian?

payless:


Mine is logic. Did you agree when I said Anambra, Enugwu, Imo, Abia, Akwa-Ibom are predominantly Christians and that makes the South predominatly Christian?

so yours is logic and then mine is sentiment?

you are very funny my friend