ASPEN, Colo.- Radical Islamist rebels will gain
sway over the many disparate factions
opposing Syrian President Bashar Assad
unless they are checked, and the country's
civil war could last years, a top Pentagon
intelligence official said on Saturday.
David Shedd, the deputy director of the US
Defense Intelligence Agency, did not
advocate any form of intervention by the
United States or its allies, saying that was up
to policymakers.
But his bleak
assessment of the
dangers posed by
the Islamist al-
Nusra Front and al-
Qaida's Iraq-based
wing, as well as the
prospects for a
prolonged conflict,
could bolster
advocates of greater involvement by the
United States and its allies.
Addressing the Aspen Security Forum in
Colorado, Shedd said he counted at least
1,200 groups in the opposition. He said many
of the groups were preoccupied with strictly
local grievances, like a lack of potable water
in their villages.
"Left unchecked, I'm very concerned that the
most radical elements will take over larger
segments" of the opposition groups, Shedd
said, strongly hinting at the need for some
kind of outside intervention.
He said the conflict could drag on anywhere
"from many, many months to multiple
years," and that a prolonged stalemate could
leave open parts of Syria to potential control
by radical fighters.
"They will not go home when it's over,"
Shedd said, envisioning one scenario where
Assad retreats to an enclave and other parts
of the country are up for grabs. "They will
fight for that space, and they're there for the
long haul."
Shedd added he and the DIA never thought
Assad's regime would fall quickly - comments
that appeared to stand in contrast to
predictions by US officials a year ago that
Assad's days were numbered.
"DIA's position was that (Assad's fall) was no
earlier than the start of this year. And it's
obviously not happened," he said.
ARMING THE REBELS
US plans to ship weapons to some rebels
have been caught in a Washington impasse,
after some members of Congress feared they
would end up in the hands of Islamist
militants.
Asked whether he thought more secular
opposition fighters should be strengthened,
or whether more radical rebel groups need
somehow to be confronted, Shedd said: "I
think it's too simple to say it's one or the
other."
"Because it's the reality that left unchecked
they will become bigger," he said, cautioning
that the al-Nusra Front was gaining in
strength and was "a case of serious concern."
Rivalries have been growing between the
Free Syrian Army(FSA) and Islamists, whose
smaller but more effective forces control
most of the rebel-held parts of northern Syria
more than two years after pro-democracy
protests became an uprising. The conflict has
killed more than 100,000 people.
The two sides previously fought together
from time to time, but the Western and Arab-
backed FSA, desperate for greater firepower,
has tried to distance itself from the Islamists
to allay US fears any arms it might supply
could reach al-Qaida.
Shedd's comments came as FSA rebels vent
frustration at what they see as the slow pace
of Western support. Britain, for example, has
abandoned plans to arm rebels.
Shedd acknowledged identifying "good"
versus "bad" rebels was very difficult.
"But I think (it is) a challenge that is well
worth pursuing," he said.
Asked how the United States could avoid
getting sucked into the conflict, Shedd said:
"I believe relying on allies in the region is our
best solution."
"We know that a number of the Gulf states
have great concerns with the Bashar Assad
regime. And I think that there are a number,
and a sizable number, of allies that would be
prepared to work even more closely with us,"
he said.

www.jpost.com/Middle-East/US-official-Islamist-rebels-would-gain-sway-in-long-Syrian-war-320505