Dead cert Jonathan's State if a general election is called Tommorrow


1. Bayelsa State - 99.99%

2. Rivers State - Obviously if a free and fair election were to prevail in Rivers state, the result would have been a split vote but as it were, na naija we dey, the Feds would do what Kwara State Electoral Commission did in Offa Last week. I don't want to burst anyone's buble, Amechi has no chance of ganering votes from Jonathan's strong-hold even though common-sense and logics tells me it should be split vote down the wire. - 95%

3. Ondo State - Even if the people vote APC, PDP would still carry the day na naija we dey - 75%

4. Benue - Jonathan - 80%

5. Pleateu State - Jonathan -85%

6. Anambra State- Jonathan -95%

7. Imo State - Even though it is Okorocha's strong-hold the feds would arm twist INEC to gather at least - 50%

8. Ebonyi - Jonathan - 90%

9. Enungu - Jonathan - 90%

10. Abia - Jonathan- 90%

11. Delta - Jonathan - 75%

12. Edo- Jonathan - 75%

13. Lagos- Jonathan - 45% which would translate to massive votes in terms of population figures

14. Kwara - Jonathan- 40% if the PDP Crisis continues

15. Kano -Jonathan -20% if the PDP CRisis continues

16. Adamawa - Jonathan -40% if PDP Crisis continues

17. Borno - 20%

18. Yobe - 20%

19. Oyo State- 40%

20.Ogun - 20%

21. Oshun - 15%

22. Ekiti -30%

23. Kogi - 75%

24. Nassarawa- 50%

25. Kaduna - 60%

26. Kebbi - 35%

27. Niger - 35%

28. Sokoto - 30%

29. Zamfara - 35%

30. Jigawa - 30%

31. Bauchi- 45%

32- Gombe - 50%

33 - Taraba - 60%

34- Cross River - 85%

35- Akwa Ibom -95%

36. Katsina - 40%

Going by this analysis, it might end up being a dead heat or Jonathan edging it. What do you people think. The power of incumbency cannot be under-estimated, and the machinery of the state at his disposal is of tremendous clout that cannot and should not be discounted.

Jonathan will do better than this. FAR BETTER

Only Jonathan can stop Jonathan.

Who did this Otondolistic analysis for you? In PDP we have correction fluid in bulk so we don't need analysis for now!

Despite the failures of this government. It remains to be said without prejudice that the Jonathan's Government has being the best Federal Government since 1979.

Achievements within a short while(bearing in might these projects could easily have awarded and nothing to show) the Naija way of doing things!!!-

1. Lagos - Kano rail link rehabilitated now running(although very slow but still functional)

2. Police College, Ikeja fixed after abandoned by all Federal Government since the initial construction of the edifice.

3. Abuja National Stadium- Fixed to be handed back to the Federal Government after undergoing massive renovation.

4. New Terminal Buildings at some Airports - Kano, Benin, Enugu(on-going " now an international Airport), Abuja and some others.

5. Work has started in the The Port- Harcourt to Maiduguri rail line

6. Kaduna - Abuja rail-road started(much modern and faster train, the project has gone far should be completed b4 2015-so they say! )

7. Roads are the biggest failure at the moment, (having said that the dangerous artery of road called the Benin- Lagos dual carriage road) has been fixed. Although the Abuja - Lokoja has been ongoing for more than 5 years now, and the Lagos - Ibadan seems to change hands regularly, hopefully the last contract awarded to Julius Berger and RCC would be honored.

8. Electricity has improved, some parts of Awka in Anambra State are even boasting of 24 hours light making a VC of the local University to commend the Federal Government.

9. The Political football issue of the Niger 2nd bridge crossing we hope this time, the ground breaking ceremony initializing the commencement of the project is not a "photo-shoot" session. The jury is still out on that project.

10. Overall this President has done better than all other President since 1979.

Kudos to Ebele Jonathan, keep up the good works and try to finish some of the projects highlighted, getting back into Aso Rock should and would be a smooth sailing if you can be judicious with our resources. Nigerians love a winning team. Concentrate on your work and see the people respond to your beck and call.

@op, 4ur mind? Ur worst nightmares..........letz wait n see. Jonathan ko, jolanta ni........mstchew. #piss on this thread#

Jona! Jona..... Jonaaaaa.... Jona, with all this crisis rocking the boat of the PDP, his chances are slim @ the moment, except all aggrieved members of the PDP are in support of his re-election, as I write the house is still in disarray, which will affect him in the fourth coming elections.

Oga Jona! Jona..... Jonaaaaa.... Jona, all the way till 2019

Jonathan ko, Jonalantern ni #Osun

A more concise analysis here, gej with a narrow edge
South South
Bayelsa-A comfortable 98% margin
Delta-90% The death of sen pius ewherido who wanted to decamped to APC kills their chance of gaining ground in delta central, niger delta solidarity would win delta for him.
Rivers-75%..this assumption is based on amaechi leaving the PDP ,however should they reconcile,he'll soar back to 98%
Akwa Ibom-99%...expect akpabio to deliver
Cross River-95%
Edo-60% he has a close relationship with oshiomole who openly supported him in 2011 and he reciprocated in last year's guber polls,he had 80% in edo in 2011
South East
Abia-95%
Enugu-95%
Ebonyi-95%
Anambra-90%.. Even if ngige emerges gov,anambrarians vote for individuals and I must say are easily the biggest supporters of GEJ coupled with their hate for the north
Imo-55% ethno-religious sentiments might combine to give him victory here except Okorocha emerges the running mate
South West
Lagos-50% the large population of ibos/SS people here coupled with a well launched media blitz plus the usual ethno-religious sentimental nigerians could give him what could be a crucial but narrow victory here
Ogun-40% the positive performance of the APC govt might likely prevent a repeat of the 70% victory he secured in 2011
Oyo-55% this is the state to watch, the likely reentrance of Rashidi Ladoja who is easily the single most popular politician in the state could prove the joker coupled with Oyo state's penchant for changing parties every election cycle and the strength of akala in ogbomosho area
Ondo-60% expect Mimiko a strong loyalist to deliver , the last guber polls showed that the LP and the PDP are the two strongest parties in the state
Osun-20% expect GEJ to suffer his worst Southern performance in this state which is heavily APC,
Ekiti-40% this could change if the PDP puts up a strong performance in next year's polls as Fayemi has not exactly performed superbly
North Central
Benue-75% expect david mark and Gabriel Suswam to deliver as usual, george akume has lost bearing as a lot of his APC acolytes in the states have moved back to the PDP
Plateau-75% Probably Jonathan's strongest base and a PDP stronghold...their distrust for Hausa/Fulani would see them flock to him like they did in 2011
Kogi-60% strong PDP state, no qualms about that
Niger-20% Nothing can prevent his losing terribly here just like in 2011
Nasarrawa-50%, he secured twice buhari's votes here in 2011 and with the exception of gov almakura, the PDP dominates most public offices here with majority of the state and national assembly seats. A large Christian/animist population disenchanted with almakura
Kwara-40%..this state is going to be taken over by APC both in the presidential and governorship polls, the saraki dynasty is unravelling
North East
Taraba-60% PDP stronghold and a christian dominated state
Bauchi-15% Even Yuguda can't save GEJ here as Buhari rules here
Gombe-30% the sizable christian population in gombe will deliver the required 25% like they did in 2011
Adamawa-50% Close Call, with the return of Boni Haruna who galvanised the opposition in the state back to PDP, jonathan might win again here like in 2011
Borno-5% Strong Buhari Zone Coupled with the insurgency leaves him hugely unpopular here, however the heavy militarization of the state will mostlikely result in a very low turnout which will be to his favour
Yobe-5% Same as Borno
North West
Kaduna-35% expect southern kaduna to deliver as always
Kano-10% even Muhammed Abacha can't prevent him from getting less than the 16% he secured here in 2011
Kebbi-20% the Zuru emirate which is christian dominated and helped him secure 25% here in 2011 could come in handy
Katsina-10% even Ibrahim shema can't do anything here for GEJ
Zamfara-20% his relationship with yerima could come in handy especially as Yerima and Buhari haven't mended their feud from APC's days but Buhari would carry the day still
Sokoto-10% no show for goodluck here, Sen Abubakar Gada could get him 10%
Jigawa-15% depends on if he reconciles with lamido who could help him secure 25%

Obiagelli:
Apc poll

1. Bayelsa State - 0.2%
2. Rivers State - 30%
3. Ondo State - 50%
4. Benue - (apc stronghold, they even have a senator) -50%
5. Pleateu State -25%
6. Anambra State (when Ngige wins) -55 %
7. Imo State - 80%
8. Ebonyi - - 5%
9. Enungu - - 5%
10. Abia - - 20%
11. Delta - - 40 %
12. Edo- - 60%
13. Lagos- - 80% which would translate to
massive votes in terms of population figures
14. Kwara - - 60% if the PDP Crisis
continues
15. Kano - -80% if the PDP CRisis continues
16. Adamawa - -60% if PDP Crisis
continues
17. Borno - 90%
18. Yobe - 90%
19. Oyo State- 80%
20.Ogun - 80%
21. Oshun - 90%
22. Ekiti -80 %
23. Kogi - 35%
24. Nassarawa- 70%
25. Kaduna - 60%
26. Kebbi - 79%
27. Niger - 70%
28. Sokoto - 75%
29. Zamfara - 70%
30. Jigawa - 75%
31. Bauchi- 70%
32- Gombe - 70%
33 - Taraba - 60%
34- Cross River - 10%
35- Akwa Ibom -10%
36. Katsina - 90%

Thanks to cluelessness.

I understand that you are an APC fan but even u can see that ur analysis is overtly optimistic even outlandish, smacks of political naivete, well 2015 is not so far off, while I'm not endorsing any candidate, I just doubt that APC will be able to overhaul d PDP in 2015, at best they might secure one chamber of the national assembly...u underestimate the PDP machine even when split and u overestimate the ability of nigerians to make informed choices, nairaland is not exactly representative of the nigerian electorate, people vote based on what their pastors and imams parrot to them,bags of rice, lace etc, 2015 would even be more shocking than 2011 in understanding the silly reasons nigerians base their choices on

Apc poll

1. Bayelsa State - 0.2%
2. Rivers State - 30%
3. Ondo State - 50%
4. Benue - (apc stronghold, they even have a senator) -50%

Oh boy in your dreams- With the Senate President delivering the Idoma votes, Suswan would deliver the Tiv votes who is going to deliver APC votes.
5. Pleateu State -25%

6. Anambra State (when Ngige wins) -55 % even if Ngige wins Anambra would still vote en-masse for GEJ

7. Imo State - 80%- more 50% APC cannot win 80% except if Okorocha is the VP
8. Ebonyi - - 5%
9. Enungu - - 5%
10. Abia - - 20%
11. Delta - - 40 %
12. Edo- - 60% - MORELIKE APC 40% this one na vice-versa
13. Lagos- - 80% - U think u are living in the Lagos of the 1950's where Yoruba's are the majority- with Igbos and other ethinc groups including sympathetic Yorubas, PDP would get at least 45% if not 50% votes

14. Kwara - - 60% if the PDP Crisis -
continues
15. Kano - -80% if the PDP CRisis continues
16. Adamawa - -60% if PDP Crisis
continues
17. Borno - 90%
18. Yobe - 90%
19. Oyo State- 80% - with Akala's 400,000 soldiers from ogbomosho including Oke-Ogun votes add Accord Party who controls 1/3 of the votes in the last election, they would probably be wooed into the PDP, I see Jonathan getting between 45- 50 % votes in Oyo State.

20.Ogun - 80%
21. Oshun - 90%
22. Ekiti -80 %
23. Kogi - 35%
24. Nassarawa- 70% - lai-lai, cpc is on the dwindle- With Lebaru Maku set to make things happen in that state, PDP would get -50% minimum
25. Kaduna - 60% - Oh boy u done smoke somthing wey pass Igbo!!1 VP's State that can't happen!!
26. Kebbi - 79%
27. Niger - 70%
28. Sokoto - 75%
29. Zamfara - 70%
30. Jigawa - 75%
31. Bauchi- 70%
32- Gombe - 70%
33 - Taraba - 60% - This State has PDP in its DNA. There are no opposition in Taraba state!!!
34- Cross River - 10%
35- Akwa Ibom -10%
36. Katsina - 90% - More like 75% I would say!!!

Thanks to cluelessness.

2/3 of the politics moderators are Igbo, so I am not surprised that this rant from a random person on NL has made it to the front page.

Next he will be telling us that magnets prove homosexuality is wrong. SMH.

Anyway, here is my prediction: Jonathan gets 23.6784395948% of the vote. This is a very scientific assessment and you can quote me on it.

Gej till 2019

North central or Igbo till 2048

Are those the states he is planning to rig?

We dey wait.

Of course he will. Till 2019 and beyond

Some people get time sha....
I love all these imaginations and analysis...
Only if wishes are horses....
But remember that there is no vacancy in Aso Rock till 2019

STATISTICIAN....


OR BETA STILL, THE MAN WHO KNOWS TOMMOROW.

NO GO FIND WETN U GO EAT. HELP JONATHAN DE COUNT PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WEY LIKE AM.

Bad analysis......Jonathan ko Judas ni!!!

All south east votes will go to GEJ, 80% of votes from Lagos will go to GEJ. Mark my word and look out for what happens.

So many jobless Nigerians abound now sha

Alot of grammatical errors and blunders in the OP's post and yet the Mods nor anti-spambot,didn't bother to re-edit the errors before pushing it to the frontpage. Don't they know that alot of people develop their English diction and spelling from what the read online? Good English should be the watch-word. It's one of the rules(rule 21),yet the Mods are not ensuring that the rules are obeyed!


@topic,let not get our hope high! This politics,a game of chance. He may win,he may not win!

2015 will not be Christian President Vs Muslim President.
2015 will be Cluesless President Vs a Smart President. I have spoken

This made the front page...

I didn't know we could just make stuff up. Sadly, people who are not well versed in politics will read this thread and assume that OP has done real research, or will think that this is coming from a newspaper or another reputable source.

Shame on NL mods. You are in the big leagues now. Your cousin's election predictions should not be gracing the front page.

That's it. . .im off to ghana!

Certainly as a listening president,Jonathan willl win the southwest because as for me and my family we are not going to vote for a northerner and I knew many yorubas who cannot cast their vote for an hausa man.You can call it tribalism if you like.

where do you get all these statistics of yours?
source pls

Danhumprey: Alot of grammatical errors and blunders in the OP's post and yet the Mods nor anti-spambot,didn't bother to re-edit the errors before pushing it to the frontpage. Don't they know that alot of people develop their English diction and spelling from what the read online? Good English should be the watch-word. It's one of the rules(rule 21),yet the Mods are not ensuring that the rules are obeyed!


@topic,let not get our hope high! This politics,a game of chance. He may win,he may not win!

^
Did you edit yours before posting especially last line?

Op point of correction. Jonathan will win 2015 presidential election not might win.


>>>Fresher Air>>> Till >>> 2019