It all started like a rumour. Some politicians in government claimed it was fomented by the opposition to misinform and unsettle the ordinary citizen. Later, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, tried to explain it away. She gave an interesting-but really scary-analogy with which to illustrate the situation. According to her, Nigeria was like a family without immediate cash to solve its everyday needs, but whose parents had jobs, and therefore had a sure means of raising money at the end of the month. Conclusion: Nigeria was just temporarily broke. But within a matter of days, the alarm could not be contained anymore. The minister rushed back and read out a press release: Our economy is going down, and Nigerians must tighten their belts!

The annoying situation is that a singular global incident is whipping a big country, or a “great country” as our leaders like to delude themselves, like Nigeria silly: steadily falling oil price. Crude oil sale is the primary source of foreign revenue in Nigeria; so, as the commodity’s price drops in the international market, we take direct hits from its impacts. Our Excess Crude Account, which was set up as a natural buffer in case of such a situation, is now so depleted that it cannot have any remedy effect whatsoever. And to worsen the situation, there is no economic boom in the real sector. So, everybody must keep praying that the price of oil bounces back to above the $100 mark so that we can go back to our collective fool’s paradise.

But the hard truth is that we are currently in a bad economic shape because demand for oil is dwindling globally. It is not driven by witchcraft; it is demand and supply. Many nations are secretly planning an exit from their dependence on the so-called black gold. The governments of the world are in fact looking for alternatives to fossil fuel in order to safeguard the environment and leave a healthier earth for future generations.

We must wake up to the reality that the Kyoto Protocol which Nigeria is a signatory, is a document prepared with an intent to put a stop to the use of petroleum in the long run. In its latest assessment of global warming which was published recently, the United Nations through its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that the use of fossil fuels must be totally phased out by the end of the century. It urged governments to cut carbon dioxide emissions by up to 70 per cent by 2050 and 100 per cent by 2100, and asked them to be less reliant on mining for fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.

Granted, we are still decades away from the deadline, but what if the dwindling oil demand is the opening salvo of the energy revolution the world hopes, and plans, for?

Another hard truth is that we are not even prepared to join the world in a new energy matrix; just as we are not prepared for declining oil revenue. Austerity measures are just a cosmetic approach. The fundamental preparedness should be in our collective attitude. We must stop deceiving ourselves that “God has blessed us with eternal blessings in subterranean places!”

Come to think of it, Madam Okonjo-Iweala’s analogy betrayed our psychological stance. She described Nigeria as a parent “who has a job”. Simply interpreted, our job is oil; therefore, it is assumed that we cannot lose that “job”. What audacity! We are so gloatingly secure in our false sense of security that we never imagine a future without crude oil. It is when we face this truth that we can appreciate that no matter the amount of fasting and prayers we indulge in, sooner or later, the future we fear will catch up with us. Truth is, sooner than later, crude oil will cease to command money and power in the global market.

Two facts show clearly our desperate condition. Firstly, our wealth had no solid base-it was what we could colloquially describe as “paper money”. International experiences show that as countries become richer, the share of the agricultural sector in GDP decreases, and the share of manufacturing and services increases. The transformation usually occurs as a result of technological advances that improve agricultural productivity and shift the factors of production towards manufacturing and services. Ironically, the productive structures in Nigeria have not witnessed any diversification whatsoever since our supposedly providential-but actually inglorious-oil boom. The agricultural sector has but a nominal growth; the manufacturing sector, plagued by lack of power, is in a shambles; and the services sector is just crawling along.

Secondly, the renewable natural resources we have in abundance are not deployed. It seems the government and the people that matter do not care about what matters. Although the Federal Government continues to hype its commitment to developing renewable energy to surmount the erratic electricity supply challenges in the country, Bloomberg recently wrote Nigeria off as a renewable energy non-starter. Having estimated that renewable energy investments in sub-Saharan Africa would reach the $5.9bn mark in 2014 and grow to $7.7bn in 2016, the reputed finance data report entity noted that the investments are predominantly expected from South Africa, Kenya and Ethiopia, leaving Nigeria out of the high-ranking renewable energy investment destinations.

In fact, one does not need an international financial analyst to see and feel our hypocrisy when it comes to renewable energy deployment. During the last Nigeria Alternative Energy Expo, the most respected of such forum in Nigeria which is actually endorsed and supported by the government, the two highest government functionaries in the sector-Ministers of Power – did not deem it necessary to even show face in the meeting hall. Perhaps, they did not want to face the hard questions from seasoned global players in the industry who are perennially frustrated by the murky alternative energy atmosphere in the country.

Yet, while we waste precious time, the world is moving forward in search of replacements for fossil fuel. Just this week, Nigerians were treated to scintillating news about the “Shit Bus” of the United Kingdom. A bus in Britain called the Bio-bus which runs on biomethane gas produced from a combination of human waste and food waste has hit the road. What is more, I just got news alert on my phone about an electric plane invented in China, which is ready to hit the world market. What about news of the sheep urine fuel, invented and deployed by another British bus company? Yes, it is happening every day; people are looking away from petroleum to alternative sources.

Two things we must do very fast are: Stop rent-seeking, and institute a robust legal framework for economic diversification. Advanced manufacturing and service industries greatly depend on the enforcement of contracts between parties, the rule of law, and the transparency of legislation. Together, these factors encourage competition between investors and weaken the rent-seeking that dominates business environments in countries like ours. The challenge for us is to ensure that financial policy can foster growth and economic diversification and those economic reforms can create job opportunities to keep up with the rapid growth of the labour force. The draft Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy Bill is one of such documents; the National Assembly must ensure its quick passage. Without entrenching these vital measures we are set on a highway to doom; but with them we shall speedily become a nation to envy in no distant time.

http://www.punchng.com/opinion/some-hard-truths-about-nigerias-economic-situation/

If I understood this narrative, we should focus on economy diversification, become a manufacturing nation, etc
But then, last time I checked, She Is the Economy coordinating Minister, so Madam, do the needful; establish the framework and environment for all these to thrive

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............ If you like obtain PHD in Econs/Management/Accounting &alltogether + work in the World Bank & heaven sef..............

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OUR POLITICIANS WILL ALWAYS MAKE YOUR QUALIFICATION USELESS cos of their own selfish need..............

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Mrs Minister where You unconscious when the Federal Executive Council Approved Billions on Naira for STOVES ?,,,,,,,,,,,,What about Financial Discipline ?........What about cutting Cost ?,,,,,,,What about proper Management ?? What about cutting our Political Trips Abroad ?.......What about "Mopping" up the budget for excesses ?.....What about Pumping money into Mining,,,Getting our local refineries back on track,,,,Energy/Power......Agriculture ??.........

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The Middle class will always bear the burden,,,Now interest rate is 13% ....& they want to increase d price of Patrol,,,increase Tax & Cut down FG workers ..................MUST WE ALWAYS PAY FOR THE EXECUTIVES RECKLESSNESS


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THE thunder that'll FIRE all OF You is LOADING !!!!

Nairaland

why wouldn't it gone down when so much have been lavishly by the so called house of assemblies

A month of dwindling oil revenue and we are already in this deep shit. What happened to all the money we made in over two years of booming oil sales? So, this is the transformation they promised us in 2011 abi? Nawa o.

our economy will surely be going down in as much this old minister is telling us lies spreading lies around in order for her to per take in d national cake.okonjo iweala should be probe Cos' she's very corrupt than Gej.

I have nothing to say.

yes it is part of the transformation agenda....

Its Mrs Pig and her fellow swines that need to tighten their belts .. I have alwys known this woman is not worth her salt right from day one when people where being hoodwinked with Harvard this and that .. Old Ugly Pig of a woman

He that fails to plan, plans to fail. Ngozi, you are the coordinating minister so instead of crying foul do the needful.

My conclusion

Devaluation should be the last resort and not a top of the list option as in the case of the clueless CBN and FG.

Nigeria being a monoeconomy with an unfavourable balance of payment, the best the FG could have done was to establish and personally manage industries with the highest import e.g Rice, Fruit, consumer goods etc as it is obvious that the commercialisation policies designed to encourage local production of these products are not working as no entrepreneur is willing to take the risk and invest heavily in the industries due to unpleasant competition with importers in the same industries who would rather trade quality for quantity at the expense of local producers. The government could however commercialise or totally privatise the companies established after a predetermined number of years.

(c) Ayobami 2014

This woman is mad, when the economy was large and nutritious were you giving jobs, better roads , power e.t.c ? Now oil Is drying up , you are asking people that have nothing to give up the nothing they have instead of you to reduce your pregnant salaries and get your asses to court because you all have stolen it all , coordinating minister of corruption , total bullshit

When APC spokesman Lai Muhammed told Nigerians this about 2months ago,these same anti-Nigeria(ns)PDP destruction merchants called him a liar.
Pdpidiots' oLIESa OLOSHI Metuh told us we're the biggest economy in Africa.

Jonathan said we're gdp giants.

Now this!

Who's the liar now?

Pdp's not good in economy.

Let's vote APC.

Now that Dieziani Allison Madueke is now the OPEC chairman,let us see what she has to do to save her country from collapsing economically.
Meanwhile,Okonjo Iweala and the rest of her corrupt gang should tighten their own seat belt and leave us alone!

How can we manufacture without serious research in our universities. These people think manufacturing is all about having the cash to set up industries. We are really on a long journey towards serious manufacturing .

The troubling part of this is that our politicians saw it coming but decided to turn a blind eye, went spending like no tomorrow. I remembered some months back when a government official(can't remember his name) told Nigerians not to worrry even if America stops buying our oil, countries like China and India will take up the slack. This was when he was asked if the FG was taking the development of shale oil in the US serious and how it will affect Nigeria

That nigeria should be divided and be separated.

A country of 54 years but still groping in darkness.

chinakobo:
How can we manufacture without serious research in our universities. These people think manufacturing is all about having the cash to set up industries. We are really on a long journey towards serious manufacturing .

This present government is like other useless governments before it.

Unserious government.

toxiflam:
If I understood this narrative, we should focus on economy diversification, become a manufacturing nation, etc
But then, last time I checked, She Is the Economy coordinating Minister, so Madam, do the needful; establish the framework and environment for all these to thrive

Do you think she understands and know her job? What was her exact role again in world bank?

Yeske2:
The troubling part of this is that our politicians saw it coming but decided to turn a blind eye, went spending like no tomorrow. I remembered some months back when a government official(can't remember his name) told Nigerians not to worrry even if America stops buying our oil, countries like China and India will take up the slack. This was when he was asked if the FG was taking the development of shale oil in the US serious and how it will affect Nigeria

It was Ngozi Okonji Iweala who made the irritating statement

We are already doing that.

horpe132:
*******************************************
............ If you like obtain PHD in Econs/Management/Accounting &alltogether + work in the World Bank & heaven sef..............

********************************************
********************************************
OUR POLITICIANS WILL ALWAYS MAKE YOUR QUALIFICATION USELESS cos of their own selfish need..............

*******************************************
******************************************
Mrs Minister where You unconscious when the Federal Executive Council Approved Billions on Naira for STOVES ?,,,,,,,,,,,,What about Financial Discipline ?........What about cutting Cost ?,,,,,,,What about proper Management ?? What about cutting our Political Trips Abroad ?.......What about "Mopping" up the budget for excesses ?.....What about Pumping money into Mining,,,Getting our local refineries back on track,,,,Energy/Power......Agriculture ??.........

*******************************************
*******************************************
The Middle class will always bear the burden,,,Now interest rate is 13% ....& they want to increase d price of Patrol,,,increase Tax & Cut down FG workers ..................MUST WE ALWAYS PAY FOR THE EXECUTIVES RECKLESSNESS


********************************************
********************************************
THE thunder that'll FIRE all OF You is LOADING !!!!

u have said it all

Nigeria failed to diversify over the years, we still have time to stabilze the economy. I don't know why we find it difficult to delve into other sectors other than petroleum. Smh

JackBaueress1:
Now that Dieziani Allison Madueke is now the OPEC chairman,let us see what she has to do to save her country from collapsing economically.
Meanwhile,Okonjo Iweala and the rest of her corrupt gang should tighten their own seat belt and leave us alone!

Let me tell you what she is going to do. She will suggest that OPEC cut down on production in order to hike the price of crude oil. Surely, the price will go up a little bit but this would make oil consumers to seek for alternative choices. Russia has oil, and not a member of OPEC, America is pumping their shale oil like no man's business and its has no impurity. Demand would shift again and oil price will crash further

Boss13:


Let me tell you what she is going to do. She will suggest that OPEC cut down on production in order to hike the price of crude oil. Surely, the price will go up a little bit but this would make oil consumers to seek for alternative choices. Russia has oil, and not a member of OPEC, America is pumping their shale oil like no man's business and its has no impurity. Demand would shift again and oil price will crash further

What is with NOrway they have also oil.

This is very good ..we must diversify even if we don't want to..good good news..

Visit the ports and see what you clueless Nigerian are importing left, right and centre to the country.

Tons and tons of luxurious consumer products including new and fairly used executive/expensive cars and 4-by-4s.

I was weeping inside but IDIOTIC and SHALLOW people around me thought I was jealous.

Now that our reserves is going down south fast, your OYEL is going out of fashion...........and we are staring at IMF & World Bank conditionalities and generational poverty.......

customized13:
Nigeria failed to diversify over the years, we still have time to stabilze the economy. I don't know why we find it difficult to delve into
other sectors other than petroleum. Smh

Diversification is not our main problem. Poor leadership is our problem. We can survive with the meagre foreign revenue from crude oil but the question is what is the federal government doing with the money. In my honest opinion it would be good for Nigeria to be broke, so that our leaders don't have access to easy funds to loot. I know they will want to resort to taxes but maybe we may resist increase taxes. I would be very painful if my money is use to purchase an extra private jet for the president to fly around the world with

idupaul:
Its Mrs Pig and her fellow swines that need to tighten their belts .. I have alwys known this woman is not worth her salt right from day one when people where being hoodwinked with Harvard this and that .. Old Ugly Pig of a woman

Seconded - UGLY PIG OF A WOMAN!

I also fell for that Harvard this, Harvard that BS ........... forgetting a lot of things I cant mention on this page

Ugly as duck....spits on her okoro face!!!

CyberWolf:
This is very good ..we must diversify even if we don't want to..good good news..

It takes money to diversify and we do not have money. It is now time for us to tighten our belts. Okay

With all this pls help me ask those criminals in aso rock what they re planing to do instead they keep looting our treachery they keep slashing money on their private jets against the coming election, the country is going down like is non of their business!