On March 7th the inevitable happened – Boko Haram pledged formal allegiance to ISIS, sparking fears that West Africa may soon become over-flooded with ISIS jihadists fresh from the Syrian battlefield. But for analysts of the region, Boko Haram’s love of the Islamic State had been a fait accompli for months. The Nigerian group has slowly changed its modus operandi since the summer of 2014, adopting ISIS hymns, symbols and considerably improving the graphics of its revealing videos. Much like their Middle Eastern counterparts, Boko Haram’s territory has also expanded, measuring some 20,000 square miles of African “caliphate” where the jihadists have enforced their own reading of Sharia law.

As in Iraq and Syria, could Nigeria also be splintered against the backdrop of institutional dysfunctions and violent militancy? The future all hinges on the March 28 presidential elections. The poll was postponed by 6 weeks from it’s original February 14th date at the request of military advisors claiming Boko Haram’s recent string of attacks risked derailing the process; so far, 2015 has been the bloodiest year in Nigeria’s ongoing fight with Islamic terrorism.

A senior Nigerian military official recently announced the offensive against Boko Haram, backed by the multi-national Joint Task Force, was gaining ground and “achieving its intended goals”. Should the army be successful in taking back Boko Haram strongholds in the north, the upcoming elections could see the country’s first democratic transfer of power since the establishment of democracy in 1999. But should the process be mired in violence and rumors of electoral fraud, the country could see itself become further divided between north and south, and descend into violence. The threat is so persistent that it has united all presidential hopefuls, who gathered in Abuja earlier this year to sign a pact, pledging to ensure the peaceful conduct of the elections.

A close call

Currently the two presidential candidates are running neck and neck in the polls. Incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has taken a tumble in the polls proportional to the havoc wreaked by Boko Haram in the north. Despite his vast achievements in the economic sphere, and his planned “transformation agenda” aimed at diversifying the economy and generating employment, Jonathan has been accused of “lack of leadership” by his main opponent, Muhammadu Buhari of the All People’s Congress (APC).

Buhari, a lapsed ex-military dictator who anointed himself president in the early 1980s before being overthrown in a counter-coup, has refashioned himself as a converted democrat. Running on an anti-corruption program and vowing to defeat Boko Haram, Buhari and his APC party are certain they can secure a first round victory. However, despite Buhari’s salt of the earth image of being one of the least corrupt individuals in the country, his reputation for abusing human rights and freedom of expression puts into question his commitment to the democracy he claims to support.

Fighting electoral fraud

Elections in Nigeria have historically been subject to vote rigging and electoral fraud, but this year the country’s electoral body, the INEC, has put in a variety of measures to prevent fraud in the polls. Biometric voter cards have been issued to the population and a fingerprint identification system was created in order to avoid the duplication of votes. Additionally, ballots, result sheets and boxes have been customized for all polling stations to battle with ballot stuffing.

While such efforts to ensure the credibility of elections are certainly a step forward, preparation problems have meant that only a little over half of registered voters have received their voter cards, the majority of whom are in Buhari’s strongholds in the north. Considering the extremely close race in 2015, any feeling by either party that they have been cheated out of victory, could have grave implications for the country’s future governance.

A parallel government

Even though the army has been making strides to stop Boko Haram advances, election and post-election violence could end up splitting the country into two and result in the formation of a shadow government. For its part, the APC has already made threats of forming it’s own parallel government, should they deem the elections to lack credibility and be mired with electoral fraud. According to the Constitution, such an outcome would fall nothing short of a military coup against the elected government.

A “one country two presidents” solution is not unfounded. The Ivory Coast’s contested 2010 presidential elections, which ended in the formation of two governments, plunged the country into a 4 month long civil war, claiming the lives of 3000. Unlike Nigeria, the Ivory Coast had no aggressive militancy wreaking havoc across several of its states and neither does it have the same north/south, Christian/Muslim divide that makes every conflict take sectarian lines.

The escalation of violence by the population is also seen as an increasing threat, with some analysts concerned that should supporters of either candidate feel the elections were unfairly conducted, a disaster scenario of ethnic killings in both the north and south could erupt. Violence following the 2011 elections resulted in the deaths of 800 people, the displacement of 65,000 and the burning of Christian churches and schools.

Electoral fraud and violent outbreaks during the elections will risk tearing Nigeria apart, resulting in the formation of dual political system in a country that requires above all else unity and strong governance. Already plagued with thousands of deaths due to the Boko Haram insurgency, ethnic and religious violence among the population will likely increase the strength of the terrorist group and render the already under pressure army unable to contain the violence on all fronts. The formation of a shadow government will similarly undermine efforts to put an end to Boko Haram and will indicate weakness on the government’s behalf to ensure the stability and safety of the population, country and the region as a whole. A parallel government, which won’t have “the instrumentality to execute the powers and functions of government defeats the entire essence of government”.

The irony of a country risking destruction not only by an ISIS-affiliated group, but by the vanity of power-hungry political figures, which in the face of humanitarian disasters scheme and plot ways to win over power, should not be lost on us.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/10032015-nigerias-presidential-elections-are-more-dangerous-than-boko-haram-oped/

God is bigger than them

I don't believe that

Has Nigeria expired? Will the river of blood burst it's banks? Who ever wins the election, chaos looms.

GEJ and his thugs more dangerous than the outcome of march 28...
Sai Buhari.

There can only be one Nigeria


United we remain


Don't give room for the power drunks to


derail the nation


Most of them are more interested

In their pockets and not the nation

Both parties are guilty. ...d masses are d ones suffering