Earlier announcement by its Vice President Mr. Vince Onyekwelu in lagos said jonathan scored 77% while Buhari scored 27% {77+27=104}

Latest figures announced by the same VP now says Jonathan scored 70% and Buhari 30%.

Is this a statistical error or what?

Earlier Announcement:
March 28 Poll: Survey Rates Jonathan Ahead of Buhari

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/march-28-poll-survey-rates-jonathan-ahead-of-buhari/204526/

An independent national opinion poll carried out around the country by a United Kingdom-based firm Kevin, Charlyn and Kimberly has put President Goodluck Jonathan ahead his All Progressive Congress (APC)'s presidential candidate General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), with a margin of 13 percent.

The aggregate analysis showed 77 percent for Dr. Jonathan while Buhari scored 27 percent from over 30,000 respondents interviewed in the survey.

Addressing a cross section of the media in Abuja, Vice President of the firm Mr. Vince Onyekwelu, said the results were collated from a monkey survey sample of 28,000 respondents, 2000 respondents from Facebook and Twitter, and another 300 respondents from face-to-face contacts and telephone interviews.

Said Onyekwelu: "Different platforms were used and one was the survey monkey which is robust for academic research and also Facebook, Twitter and Face-Face discussion. The monkey survey was 28,000, Facebook and Twitters were 1000 each and face to face discussion was 300.

Insisting on the credibility of the poll based on what he described as the rigorous methodology used, he added: “The information is based on the perception of what people have, I don’t know those people, the research was based on several dynamics.”

According to the firm, the respondents considered the war on terror as one of the major determinants on the forthcoming election.

Latest:
POLL PROJECTS PRESIDENT JONATHAN’S VICTORY IN MARCH 28

With days to the 2015 presidential poll, Kevin, Charlyn and Kimberly Associates, a United Kingdom (UK)-based research and political risk consultancy firm, has projected that incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will win the March 28 poll with a margin of 13 per cent probability ratings.

A statement issued by its Vice President (VP) for Africa and Middle East, Mr. OC. Vince, which was made available to journalists in Abuja on Friday, said it used both the ‘monkey survey’ and ‘political risk index’ to forecast the Nigerian election, which culminated in projecting a Jonathan’s win.

He however, explained that the firm had no partisan interest in the outcome of the nationwide survey, adding that the election would be left for Nigerians to decide.

The statement said: “Many people around the world, including politics and business leaders, are focusing on Nigeria to see how the process of democracy is managed.”

The statement added that PDP appeared to be facing its toughest political challenge in 16 years and hoped the efforts the firm had made by organising an independent survey would help deepen and strengthen democracy in Nigeria and enable the different contending parties manage their final push toward 2015.

On the credibility of the test, the statement hinted: “We randomly conducted a nationwide opinion poll focusing on the six geo-political regions of Nigeria: North East, North West, North Central, South West, South East and South- South. The sampled population was asked questions centring on human rights, the economy and security.

Question: “Between General Buhari and President Goodluck Jonathan, who would best protect the fundamental human rights of Nigerians?

While APC’s Buhari scored 30 per cent, Jonathan scored 70 per cent.”

Question: “Between the elections holding in February 14, as previously scheduled and March 28, as postponed, which date do you feel safer to participate in the presidential election?”

Thirty-five per cent thinks the election should have been held on February 14, as earlier scheduled, while 65 per cent thinks the March 28 new date is a safer and more secured date. Accordingly, they believe that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was now more prepared having issued more PVCs and as wells as tested the card readers. The lapses noticed can now be corrected before the polls.

Question: Between Buhari and Jonathan who would best grow the economy?”

APC’s Buhari scored 42 per cent, while PDP President Jonathan scored 58 per cent. Vince said its conclusion were reached in respect of the question, ‘who would best protect your fundamental human rights’ by taking cognisance of the antecedents and past records of the two candidates, adding, that the past and current utterances of the candidates and how Nigerians of diverse gender, ethnicity, religion and social status perceive both candidates and how effectively both candidates has been marketed to the voting population.

The statement also averred that majority of the respondent agreed that Dr. Jonathan is highly tolerant and possesses the right temperament as a democratic president. The respondents also cited the signing of the FoI Act by the President and his high tolerance of criticism as a rare quality for an African leader.

It however, criticised Jonathan’s PR team for not doing enough to market his achievements and personal qualities, which they said surpassed that of any former Nigerian leader in recent history.

The statement added: “We viewed Dr. Jonathan as a favourite to win re-election based also on a number of factors even though the election will still be difficult to call. Our expectation of a Jonathan’s win was predicated also on the fact that the postponement of the election may have helped him comeback decisively into the race.”

http://sunnewsonline.com/new/?p=110219