Our population in Nigeria exceeds 170 million, yet electricity generation is less than 10,000 megawatts.

If electricity generation and supply underpins development, and more development means more jobs...

The practical question is, how much electricity should Nigeria really be generating and supplying to serve the economy?

Can we work out reasonable projections with evidence?

If we get it fairly right, we may appreciate the gravity of where we are compared to where we should be. Any thoughts?

Are we talking, 50,000 megawatts, 60,000 or...?
How much power do we really need?

Germany has a population of about 80 million.

Germany generates more than 178,000 Megawatts of electricity, what do you think?

Japan has a population of almost 120 million people.

Japan generates more than 280,000 Megawatts of electricity....

we are not that industrialised as a nation. we've. deficit of 55,000MW. but with our $20bn economy.. it is not feasible to even build 5000MW in this administration cos it cost about $1BN to 1000MW plant. those ones are small issues compare to the politics of making things work.

WinningSun:
we are not that industrialised as a nation. we've. deficit of 55,000MW. but with our $20bn economy.. it is not feasible to even build 5000MW in this administration cos it cost about $1BN to 1000MW plant. those ones are small issues compare to the politics of making things work.

You've scored too many points in your post. Firstly, I don't agree that our deficit is 55,000megawatts.

Let's take it step by step... Why do you think our deficit is 55,000MW?

WinningSun:
we are not that industrialised as a nation. we've. deficit of 55,000MW. but with our $20bn economy.. it is not feasible to even build 5000MW in this administration cos it cost about $1BN to 1000MW plant. those ones are small issues compare to the politics of making things work.

It is perfectly feasible to build even 10,000MW in the next 3 years under 2 conditions:

(1) that private operators be allowed to charge market rates, with no interference from the government.
(2) that the current foreign exchange controls are abolished, and the Naira be allowed to freely float.

Building power plants isn't rocket science, and there are plenty of companies around the world with the necessary skills, but no one will invest serious money in a country like Nigeria where prices are capped at an unprofitable level to appease the economically illiterate, and it's impossible to repatriate any of your earnings because the central bank is trying to pretend the Naira is stronger than it really is.

omohayek:

It is perfectly feasible to build even 10,000MW in the next 3 years under 2 conditions:
(1) that private operators be allowed to charge market rates, with no interference from the government.
(2) that the current foreign exchange controls are abolished, and the Naira be allowed to freely float.
Building power plants isn't rocket science, and there are plenty of companies around the world with the necessary skills, but no one will invest serious money in a country like Nigeria where prices are capped at an unprofitable level to appease the economically illiterate, and it's impossible to repatriate any of your earnings because the central bank is trying to pretend the Naira is stronger than it really is.

Your analysis is advanced! How much power do we really need to generate to run Nigeria like a developed country, please?

dbexcel:


Your analysis is advanced! How much power do we really need to generate to run Nigeria like a developed country, please?

Considering South Africa is having blackouts even with 50 million people and 56,000 MW of generating capacity, I can easily see Nigeria needing more than 80,000 MW in 20 years if industrialization takes off. In the meantime, even getting to half of South Africa's output would be a real achievement.

omohayek:

Considering South Africa is having blackouts even with 50 million people and 56,000 MW of generating capacity, I can easily see Nigeria needing more than 80,000 MW in 20 years if industrialization takes off. In the meantime, even getting to half of South Africa's output would be a real achievement.

Hmmm, now you're coming home slowly...

So Nigeria would need more than 80,000 MW of generating capacity.

But UK has over 60 million people with close to 90,000 MW generated from many sources. My mathematics is.....?

I think we need more than 200,000 MW to grow Nigeria.

And we need it like yesterday. That should be our aim, do you agree?

See

dbexcel:
Japan has a population of almost 120 million people.
Japan generates more than 280,000 Megawatts of electricity....

dbexcel:


Hmmm, now you're coming home slowly...

So Nigeria would need more than 80,000 MW of generating capacity.

But UK has over 60 million people with close to 90,000 MW generated from many sources. My mathematics is.....?

The UK is also a much more industrialized country, with an affluent population that can afford to spend a lot more on energy. In addition, the UK has cold winters during which people need to heat their homes. Most Nigerians can't afford air conditioners, and even if the economy were to start growing at China-like rates, it would still take a few decades before the average Nigerian could afford such luxuries. Finally, there are many businesses that could easily be set up in Nigeria if the country's infrastructure issues were sorted out, and depending on how energy-intensive these are, they in turn would generate more demand for power (e.g. shipbuilding, car assembly, etc.)

To summarize, it's not really possible to give a figure for how much power demand Nigeria could need as this depends on many variables that are difficult to account for: the best one can say without attempting to predict the future is that for countries of comparable or slightly better levels of development to Nigeria (e.g. Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia) the norm is about 5 times what Nigeria currently generates - which is about half of South Africa's current output.

Nigerians may never experience 24/7 electricity in their lifetime, a very sad reality to come to terms with

omohayek:

The UK is also a much more industrialized country, with an affluent population that can afford to spend a lot more on energy. In addition, the UK has cold winters during which people need to heat their homes. Most Nigerians can't afford air conditioners, and even if the economy were to start growing at China-like rates, it would still take a few decades before the average Nigerian could afford such luxuries. Finally, there are many businesses that could easily be set up in Nigeria if the country's infrastructure issues were sorted out, and depending on how energy-intensive these are, they in turn would generate more demand for power (e.g. shipbuilding, car assembly, etc.)
To summarize, it's not really possible to give a figure for how much power demand Nigeria could need as this depends on many variables that are difficult to account for: the best one can say without attempting to predict the future is that for countries of comparable or slightly better levels of development to Nigeria (e.g. Pakistan, Vietnam, Indonesia) the norm is about 5 times what Nigeria currently generates - which is about half of South Africa's current output.

We have to rely mainly on population statistics to plan.

If we establish that we need more than 200,000 MW in Nigeria, then we have a focus.
If we rely on and consider only our current situation in Nigeria, we will remain in the poverty cycle or as some may say catch-22.
That's why we have comments like...

kYjelly2:
Nigerians may never experience 24/7 electricity in their lifetime, a very sad reality to come to terms with

Your points are strong but there is a balance...

Many years ago, the UK had to rely on wood to stay warm, before they finished building their power plants.

Simply put, to defeat the effects of the hot weather, we need to build, including manufacture raw materials for the power plants we need.
Many have generators but we need to build collective generating plants that will serve more people with less effects.

It's a catch-22 situation, companies need power plants to operate, power plants need companies to build them!

If we import all we need, we loose jobs and waste money. We must decide that to build plants that will generate more than 200,000 MW that we need, we cannot import all the materials, may we hire specialists to work with us but we need to build using our own raw materials.

Don't you think we need to look at rich countries to learn, not the struggling ones? I understand BRICS and MINT as Paradigms but we need to get the basics and be ready to influence the way forward.

Nigeria needs more than 200,000 MW generating capacity to stay afloat.

dbexcel:

We have to rely mainly on population statistics to plan.

If we establish that we need more than 200,000 MW in Nigeria, then we have a focus.
If we rely on and consider only our current situation in Nigeria, we will remain in the poverty cycle or as some may say catch-22.

That is just not a realistic way of looking at things. You can't simply say "let's pick a target and somehow achieve it": this is something the market should decide, based on the level of power demanded by end users, and how much they're willing to pay for it. The approach you suggest has been tried and failed many times in Nigeria over the last 40 years.

dbexcel:

If we import all we need, we loose jobs and waste money. We must decide that to build plants that will generate more than 200,000 MW that we need, we cannot import all the materials, may we hire specialists to work with us but we need to build using our own raw materials.

Don't you think we need to look at rich countries to learn, not the struggling ones? I understand BRICS and MINT as Paradigms but we need to get the basics and be ready to influence the way forward.

Nigeria needs more than 200,000 MW generating capacity to stay afloat.

This sort of thinking, where someone in an armchair picks a number out of the air, decides that "we need to build using our own raw materials", and then passes some law or other, is precisely why Nigeria's power sector (and the rest of the economy) is in a mess. Why do you assume that you know more about how much power is needed and how to provide it than companies with decades of experience in power generation, managed by professionals with specialized degrees on the subject, who have successfully run power plants requiring billions of dollars (not Naira)? All you're doing here is engaging in empty speculation without any real understanding of the subject at hand.

dbexcel:


Your points are strong but there is a balance...

Many years ago, the UK had to rely on wood to stay warm, before they finished building their power plants.

Simply put, to defeat the effects of the hot weather, we need to build, including manufacture raw materials for the power plants we need.
Many have generators but we need to build collective generating plants that will serve more people with less effects.

It's a catch-22 situation, companies need power plants to operate, power plants need companies to build them!

If we import all we need, we loose jobs and waste money. We must decide that to build plants that will generate more than 200,000 MW that we need, we cannot import all the materials, may we hire specialists to work with us but we need to build using our own raw materials.

Don't you think we need to look at rich countries to learn, not the struggling ones? I understand BRICS and MINT as Paradigms but we need to get the basics and be ready to influence the way forward.

Nigeria needs more than 200,000 MW generating capacity to stay afloat.

I like ur zeal and optimism, but my child, those things amount to nothing in naija

Welcome to the jungle

omohayek:


That is just not a realistic way of looking at things. You can't simply say "let's pick a target and somehow achieve it": this is something the market should decide, based on the level of power demanded by end users, and how much they're willing to pay for it. The approach you suggest has been tried and failed many times in Nigeria over the last 40 years.

I am not impressed with your submission. Reference has been made to population, which is common practice in planning and what obtains in developed countries as we speak. Tell me where it was published that we have had a realistic target for power, I have yet to see it. Tell me who said it, when and where? Also kindly tell me why they failed.

This sort of thinking, where someone in an armchair picks a number out of the air, decides that "we need to build using our own raw materials", and then passes some law or other, is precisely why Nigeria's power sector (and the rest of the economy) is in a mess. Why do you assume that you know more about how much power is needed and how to provide it than companies with decades of experience in power generation, managed by professionals with specialized degrees on the subject, who have successfully run power plants requiring billions of dollars (not Naira)? All you're doing here is engaging in empty speculation without any real understanding of the subject at hand.

Let's leave journalism but talk facts. Give me figures based on something a school of thought based on real examples, not stuff like 'armchair picks a number out of the air'. I don't have claim of fame or so much knowledge, all I've presented here is a view point backed with figures. You project with figures that reflect your needs. For us to have good quality of life capital, there is the need to do comparative analysis. Take 10 developed countries and work out their generating capacity versus their population size, you may see a trend. If you recommendation is that the private sector should build the plants, I have no problem with that as long as they are built and distributed without fail. In politics, I'm not sure it's about specialised degrees but what you actually deliver. Let the professionals deliver! There's always scope for improvement and I can tell you that conditions are not perfect anywhere in the world. So let's talk about why it's not working with a view to getting a clearer picture on how it will work. Show facts and figures not stuff like 'empty speculation'

kYjelly2:


I like ur zeal and optimism, but my child, those things amount to nothing in naija

Welcome to the jungle

Everywhere was a jungle before man developed it. Someone said, the difference between an expert and a mediocre is 'that little extra skill, applied knowledge...'. This is not referring to you or your comments but on what we should be considering to bridge the gap of inadequacies in Nigeria.

Nigeria will be great, starting with you!

We need to accommodate the basic needs of every Nigerian, if we do this we would have covered the issue of per capita demand.

Do you know what Nigeria's per capita use of energy is and why this is important in looking forward?

dbexcel:


Let's leave journalism but talk facts. Give me figures based on something a school of thought based on real examples, not stuff like 'armchair picks a number out of the air'. I don't have claim of fame or so much knowledge, all I've presented here is a view point backed with figures. You project with figures that reflect your needs. For us to have good quality of life capital, there is the need to do comparative analysis. Take 10 developed countries and work out their generating capacity versus their population size, you may see a trend. If you recommendation is that the private sector should build the plants, I have no problem with that as long as they are built and distributed without fail. In politics, I'm not sure it's about specialised degrees but what you actually deliver. Let the professionals deliver! There's always scope for improvement and I can tell you that conditions are not perfect anywhere in the world. So let's talk about why it's not working with a view to getting a clearer picture on how it will work. Show facts and figures not stuff like 'empty speculation'

My 'needs'? What exactly do I 'need' here? Am I getting paid for contributing or something? Frankly, I'm tired of this. You're free to believe whatever you like, it makes absolutely no difference to my life.

omohayek:


My 'needs'? What exactly do I 'need' here? Am I getting paid for contributing or something? Frankly, I'm tired of this. You're free to believe whatever you like, it makes absolutely no difference to my life.

I meant electricity needs for all. It has nothing to do with your thoughts, comments or opinions.

omohayek:


It is perfectly feasible to build even 10,000MW in the next 3 years under 2 conditions:

(1) that private operators be allowed to charge market rates, with no interference from the government.
(2) that the current foreign exchange controls are abolished, and the Naira be allowed to freely float.

Building power plants isn't rocket science, and there are plenty of companies around the world with the necessary skills, but no one will invest serious money in a country like Nigeria where prices are capped at an unprofitable level to appease the economically illiterate, and it's impossible to repatriate any of your earnings because the central bank is trying to pretend the Naira is stronger than it really is.

Thanks X 10000. I just parsed your monicker again. Indeed you're a worthy follower of the Austrian genius, Hayek.

omohayek:


It is perfectly feasible to build even 10,000MW in the next 3 years under 2 conditions:

(1) that private operators be allowed to charge market rates, with no interference from the government.
(2) that the current foreign exchange controls are abolished, and the Naira be allowed to freely float.

Building power plants isn't rocket science, and there are plenty of companies around the world with the necessary skills, but no one will invest serious money in a country like Nigeria where prices are capped at an unprofitable level to appease the economically illiterate, and it's impossible to repatriate any of your earnings because the central bank is trying to pretend the Naira is stronger than it really is.

technically you're right and that is ideal. most Nigerian can't feed themselves not to talk of paying for light. 10,000MW is not feasible if it is from government coffer. except it resort to borrowing.

dbexcel:


You've scored too many points in your post. Firstly, I don't agree that our deficit is 55,000megawatts.

Let's take it step by step... Why do you think our deficit is 55,000MW?

well my projection is for industry cos most of our industry are in it infancy and they are in few locations and they are clustered. the home user usage is meagre. and most rural areas has not be connected to the grid

omohayek:


That is just not a realistic way of looking at things. You can't simply say "let's pick a target and somehow achieve it": this is something the market should decide, based on the level of power demanded by end users, and how much they're willing to pay for it. The approach you suggest has been tried and failed many times in Nigeria over the last 40 years.



This sort of thinking, where someone in an armchair picks a number out of the air, decides that "we need to build using our own raw materials", and then passes some law or other, is precisely why Nigeria's power sector (and the rest of the economy) is in a mess. Why do you assume that you know more about how much power is needed and how to provide it than companies with decades of experience in power generation, managed by professionals with specialized degrees on the subject, who have successfully run power plants requiring billions of dollars (not Naira)? All you're doing here is engaging in empty speculation without any real understanding of the subject at hand.

That us why I looked at the thread with caution because the basis is flawed and cannot be used for planning!

As for some others in this thread asking about 10000mW .it is possible the issue is who are the people building it.the govt,the foreign cogs or your indigenous engineers with 1000% local materisls

The question remains, perhaps some may see it as a wish

- if Nigeria was to be considered as a developed country in future, how much electricity would it need to generate to successfully run the economy. This has nothing to do with who or when.

Facts and figures before sensational journalism or show of comradeship please

I think everyone has made good points, but its left for d government to atleast make improvement from what we've been having before.

Without the masses having to pay heavily for it

....