SirShymexx:


However, "facts" can be deceiving sometimes when the reality doesn't give credence to these "facts", especially when dubious characters are in-charge of collating them, in a country where folks are allergic to keeping proper records. You can correlate it with the Nigerian football age syndrome. Based on "fact" and the birth certificate issued by naij, Taye Taiwo is 31 years old...but in reality, he isn't anywhere near 31 and should be over 40. Another classic example is the bogus naij GDP that accorded an industry like nollywood billions of dollars, just to make up numbers, when in reality, the industry isn't worth anything - apart from junk.

A country that doesn't manufacture anything, apart from oil, low agricultural produce export yields, and food items and other miscellaneous things to its huge diaspora population - but imports basically everything, including refined crude - can't have trade surplus in reality based on logic. The numbers don't add up and you can't compare MENA country with small population/consumption ratio vis-a-vis their huge oil export - to a naij with huge population ratio vis-a-vis its disproportionate oil export. So if naij has been enjoying real trade export for that long, its economy won't be perpetually messed up as it is. The figures are dubious and I doubt they record what they import. How can you even export more than you import when you are not even self-sufficient in anything and not even oil, which is naij's primary foreign exchange earner?

What do Saudi Arabia,Kuwait Qatar and so on manufacture

SirShymexx:


However, "facts" can be deceiving sometimes when the reality doesn't give credence to these "facts", especially when dubious characters are in-charge of collating them, in a country where folks are allergic to keeping proper records. You can correlate it with the Nigerian football age syndrome. Based on "fact" and the birth certificate issued by naij, Taye Taiwo is 31 years old...but in reality, he isn't anywhere near 31 and should be over 40. Another classic example is the bogus naij GDP that accorded an industry like nollywood billions of dollars, just to make up numbers, when in reality, the industry isn't worth anything - apart from junk.

A country that doesn't manufacture anything, apart from oil, low agricultural produce export yields, and food items and other miscellaneous things to its huge diaspora population - but imports basically everything, including refined crude - can't have trade surplus in reality based on logic. The numbers don't add up and you can't compare MENA country with small population/consumption ratio vis-a-vis their huge oil export - to a naij with huge population ratio vis-a-vis its disproportionate oil export. So if naij has been enjoying real trade export for that long, its economy won't be perpetually messed up as it is. The figures are dubious and I doubt they record what they import. How can you even export more than you import when you are not even self-sufficient in anything and not even oil, which is naij's primary foreign exchange earner?

tuniski:


The value of the naira by purchasing power parity is determine by a simple Concept thus; if the cost ccommoditiy A in USA is 3$ and same commodity A in nigeria cost 1000naira, the naira to dollar value is 1$/333naira. QED

Any official control/pegging only ensure poor economic performance and rent seeking. The premium of the naira via control is what is driving inflation.

It is not poor economy if 400naira goes for 1$, no it is not! What is wrong is creating incentives for black-market via subsidy on Forex thereby impeding economic activities.

By this false valuation of naira, we officially are losing about 35% in naira what it should be. If we earn 1bn$ and value it at 197bn naira instead of 320bn, the 123bn subsidy is reflected in cost to manufacturers, inflation to consumers and rent to round trippers. It helps only the round trippers who gain only currency transaction value without economic value backing!

Buhari simply doesn't get! Let himm continue to romance the Yuan thinking two peggers of their currency (China n nigeria) live in isolation of global economy.


Bottom line, the naira is already devalued with the sustained depreciation and the continue insistence by buhari not to yield to reality has created reality in job losses, inflation and overall recession. A govt that mouths diversification on one breath and stifle it On the other promoting dumping and importation!


May God help us.

tuniski:
the noise about sheriff already shows pdp got it right! Pdp needs political gladiator not a Mr clean! The arena is not for the faint hearted and sheriff is a veteran.

Time to engage the yeye apc. Afterall, the BH at some point nominated GMB to be their negotiator! So Kini big deal if buhari can be president, Sheriff appropriate to lead pdp!

tuniski:
.
PDP made no mistake in the choice of Sheriff. The opposition and those who lost out are the ones making noise. Politics is not for the Faint hearted.
If buhari can be president then nothing wrong with Sheriff as chairman. The pdp must not allow the apc and its sympathizers dictate the narrative that is where it will be bad.
It is about a comatose economy under the incompetent watch of buhari/apc not sheriff!

tuniski:

Please give me one such person from North East?
Sheriff is a tested gladiator and pdp doesn't need mr clean. It is going to be real political battle come 2019. It is for those who will look apc eye to eye and say we are taking Aso Rock!

tuniski:

The fear of pdp is the beginning of performance. Pdp is very much alive. It is the bastion of our democracy, rather it iis apc that will die like always after a defeat!

tuniski:
All these orchestrated actions by apc/buhari won't fly in the fullness of time cos they are up against a tested politician and a changing dynamics of politics. I am not a saraki fan but, equally not an apc fan too. Let this banana peel do slip them all. Apc and their change is a scam!!

omonnakoda:
You cannot pick and choose which facts you like. If YOU are the arbiter of which facts are good or bad then we have a problem and there is no point to further discussion. The onus then falls on you to provide alternative facts.
I find your argument about facts lame and churlish. You pronounce with strange authority what seems good to you e.g Nollywood is worth nothing but junk,Really ? But there are dozens of Nollywood Millionaires buying property etc and creating jobs. You really need to come off your high horse and stop these grandiose assertions
Manufacturing which you harp on so much about is not really relevant . Why must countries "Manufacture" to have a trade surplus .What kind of logic is that
What do Saudi Arabia,Kuwait Qatar and so on manufacture

The bottomline is to import less than you export. That manufacturing argument is rather irrelevant and your style of argument is to lump together incoherent points to arrive at a conclusion. The problem with that is you will be right sometimes by luck and often wrong but fail to see the problem with your line of argument.
The "reality " and logic you refer to is quite simply what you wish to believe. Balance of trade payments between countries are in the public domain they are not arcane by any means. The evidence will be found in foreign reserves and sundry related places so quit the emotive pontificating and deal with the public "facts"
Google is free check the Nigeria balance of trade going back as many years as you like

TonyeBarcanista:
I don't know who is advising President Buhari but his insistence on not devaluing the Naira to reflect present reality is one decision he would live to regret. The false sense of value we are giving to the naira is not helping anybody neither is political consideration more important than the economy. The suffering we would experience through devalued naira won't be compared to the hopeless situation we are now. in fact, if the country is pragmatic enough, the devalued naira policy would turn to be a blessing.

SirShymexx:


Before haranguing and claiming that I can't pick and choose the "facts" to believe, how about post anywhere I've ever believed figures released by naij? Even a re.tard knows that whatever figures come of naij is fraudulent cos the country doesn't keep records of the smallest things and if you don't keep records, how can you collate the right figures? In cases such as Nigeria's you just have to use the eye test and logic...and once you do that, you would see that nothing adds up. Common logic.

So you mean the same nollywood where 99.9999% of its movies are straight DVDs, especially in a country where piracy is rife, and quality is piss poor, with almost zero budget based on the movies look, is worth billions of dollars, no? The same one that needed one billion naira bailout from GEJ is worth billions of dollars? Common logic should tell you that the figures are fictitious. Err, I can gather a few folks with a camera and make nollywood movies and most YouTube series have better quality than nollywood. It's just like saying cos channel used to make cheap quality music videos just for about anyone back in the day for £200 with saturated quantity, it's worth millions of pounds lol.

Saudi Arabia: 27 million in population and 10million bpd in oil export.

Qatar: 2.2 million in population and 2.3 million bpd in oil export

Kuwait: 3.8 million in population and 2.50 million bpd in oil export

Nigeria: 180 million in population and 2.4 million bpd

Once you do ya eye test and use logic, you'd see that it isn't rocket science why these countries have trade surplus due to small population and huge oil production. They consume less than what they sell, hence they have huge foreign reserves. However, once you look at naij's huge population and what they consume, especially in a country where everything is imported vis-a-vis its oil production, you would see that you can't compare naij with those countries and the trade surplus tosh is utter bolex. Logic again. Use ya eye test not dubious figures folks make up in their heads and reality doesn't support.

Logic is free as long as the cerebrum is intact and an eye test is easy.

SirShymexx:


A country that doesn't manufacture anything, apart from oil, low agricultural produce export yields, and food items and other miscellaneous things to its huge diaspora population - but imports basically everything, including refined crude - can't have trade surplus in reality based on logic.

obailala:
Yes he has an ingredient which the others totally lack. And since no reasonable civilian could be forwarded in 2015, we had no choice but to select the lesser evil.

omonnakoda:
Balance of trade figures are not Nigerian figures . Every country has a thing called a current account ..These things are in the international domain>Shouting loud does not change reality.
We import a lot but we do not import everything as you claim. Also you are now shifting the goalpost first you said


Now you are saying it is possible if such a country has a small population.
Have a look at this
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS
Saudi depends even more on imports than we do.
Your assertion that we manufacture nothing is nonsense really . Nigeria is top or one of top producers of yam cassava,groundnuts and so on. It is not high value yes but the vast majority of our population consume stuff made in Nigeria and not imports as you would have us believe. Many people do not eat corn flakes or use toothpicks and so on. The real Nigerians largely consume made in Nigeria stuff. We produce beef cattle palm oil fish beans wood and lots more not as much as we could but compared to our population size our imports are small. Importation per se is not the problem. Our productivity should increase and that is what needs attention. Everyone has opinions many of which are useless no matter how tenaciously they are held
Even if every single Nollywood movie sold is pirated it still remains in the economy and on an aggregate basis is part of GDP
Somehow you managed to bring in Taiye Taiwo into the debate. Your argument is all over the place,heavy on opinion but light on analysis.
If we were not having a positive balance of trade how did we build up foreign reserves? You know a lot less than you think you do and lack the humility to redress this
YOUR logic is not "common" at all it is very unique indeed!!

ibietela2:


So have only 2 part in Nigeria

SirShymexx:


You're a vacuous and obtuse clown, hence every time you stray around quoting me stupidly, you always get ya arse whooped and disgraced - then you log out of one handle and start running around with a next one.

Who keeps a country's balance of trade figures if not the country's bureau of statistics? Who keeps records of goods going in and out of the country...international agencies? I bet the next thing you would tell me is that Nigeria's population figures, literacy rate et al, used by international agencies aren't Nigerian figures and these agencies go over to Nigeria to get these figures themselves. You're a gift that keeps on giving and a clown lol.

Common logic alone should tell you that a country with trade surplus won't have an economy as messed up as Nigeria's and eye test would show you that countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait which you cited as reference points have absolutely nothing in common with naij (apart being oil producers and having oil as their primary foreign exchange earner) when it comes to export earnings from oil vis-a-vis population and consumption and the obvious differences are evident in how huge their foreign reserves are compared to naij's. Oil export makes up about 70/80% naij's foreign exchange earnings/export and with a huge population of 180 million that consumes mostly imported goods - where did the trade surplus wriggle out from, smart arse? You have got no brain, yo.

Saudi Arabia might depend heavily on imported goods but the huge 10million bpd it exports can easily offset that with more than enough left based on the consumption by its significantly small population. Can the same be said about a Nigeria that exports a quarter of Saudi's oil production, yet has a population almost five times Saudi's?

If you can't see the correlation in the context in which I used Nigerian football age and dubious figures that don't represent reality - then you are much more vacuous and obtuse than I initially thought.

omonnakoda:
When you run out of things to say you start abusing your family. Like I said balance of trade payments are in the public domain. Nations have current accounts with international drawing bodies and that is how balance of payments are settled through international clearing protocols.
Name calling is the territory best suited to you but reality is what it is. When nations trade they have to pay and they pay through banks ,through CBN letters of credit and settlement procedures . Educate yourself and stop the bluster . Little chance of that happening though since rabble rousing is your area of unique expertise.
Your logic is a very special and distinct kind, everything but common...........

SirShymexx:


Nah, you started the subliminal name calling and I returned the favour based on the venom you applied to it and the more vicious you got, I doubled the dose. Don't play the blame game now.

So all international import in a country as dysfunctional as naij is done by its central bank, no? Your case is irredeemable.

Also, common sense should tell you that a country with trade surplus for 30 years like you claimed would have a strong currency. But we all know the naira is more or less worthless. So where did the surplus go?

obailala:
What do you mean by 2 part?

ibietela2:




2 party

omonnakoda:
according to your logic a country with a trade deficit like the USA should have a weak currency. The reality is many factors determine exchange rate and by the way exchange rate is not the same as "strength". Political factors are just as if not more important
By a similar token China should have a very high exchange rate please explain why this is not so
Clearly you have a chip on your shoulder and very low self esteem hence your need t see invisible enemies and compensate .
Does you aggression strengthen your argument? No your position is bereft of coherence or even analysis.
It is either we measure stuff or we don't and if we do we measure that which is official by looking at a Central Bank's position in foreign reserves. That is what foreign reserves are for.They are not government funds or savings. Huffing and puffing can only mask what you lack to the undiscerning. You have little to offer but bluster ,bluff and bombast

SirShymexx:


However, the US has been running a deficit since like forever, while being $20 trillion and counting in the hole. So if those who think they have a solution to naij's economics problem are from a country with a much more severe economic problem than naij's that's being masked by certain leverages it enjoys - wouldn't it be wise to proffer the solution to their own country with the majestic formula they have before telling others what to do? Or can a blind man lead someone with glaucoma?

Also, once you look at how persistent they're and the way naij's economy is the most discussed apart from Venezuela and Russia (at least these two countries aren't cordial with the US), you just have to wonder why they care that much, especially for a country that doesn't care about other countries apart from when its interests are involved. That is the same way the US has been the most vocal against Brexit, when the same country won't allow the same things it wants the UK to do.

Personally, I believe the current naira policy right now is the best thing this government has achieved. Devaluation won't solve any problem whatsoever apart from increasing inflation and getting horders to unleash their stashed loot. Solving economic problems especially when you have a depleted reserve and major source of foreign exchange is in a limbo isn't something that happens overnight. It is a long hard grind. It is basically like trying to burn fat and build muscles - it takes time, unless you want to cheat.

As for the economics illiterates posting junk trade surplus - I don't know when a country that has never been self-sufficient and doesn't manufacture anything, apart from oil, started having trade surplus. They just collated figures of things consumed by naij diaspora in countries with naij huge populations for the useless data that has no bearing on anything. The current situation can be a blessing in disguise if handled properly. Folks just need to be vigilant.

SirShymexx:


Loooool.

You are more ret.arded than a sewage rat.

The US is strong despite trade deficit due to Fiat, petrodollar, and gold standard (the US has the biggest gold reserve on the planet).

As for China, everyone including a first year economics student knows that if the yen is allowed to float, it might end up as the strongest currency in the world. But China manipulates its currency and it keeps it low lol.

Does naij have the luxuries the two countries enjoy?

I'm done with you. You ain't got no brain, yo lol.

adconline:

False equivalence! US is a$16tn economy with AAA govt bond rating. It's a destination for FDI investment. Just Apple cash_$450bn in the bank is close to Naija total GDP

TonyeBarcanista:
I don't know who is advising President Buhari but his insistence on not devaluing the Naira to reflect present reality is one decision he would live to regret. The false sense of value we are giving to the naira is not helping anybody neither is political consideration more important than the economy. The suffering we would experience through devalued naira won't be compared to the hopeless situation we are now. in fact, if the country is pragmatic enough, the devalued naira policy would turn to be a blessing.

Rallyman:
guy for God's sake... We are talking about creating a great nation u are talking about wailers. is about time we talk national growth not politics pls

TonyeBarcanista:

let the naira be officially devalued.

imagine your brother sending you $2000 from USA through Western Union, you go to the bank and you are paid a naira equivalent at the rate of N199 to the Dollar and you are given N398,000.00. A week later you decide to order a watch from Dubai at the rate of $1000, you go to an aboki who changes your naira to dollar Ay N350, and made you part with N350,000.00. Do you think you are at loss or gain?

if the Naira was officially devalued to N350, you wouldn't have been at great loss like you were before.



Think....

SirShymexx:


So having a debt profile higher than ya GDP is smart economics, no?

Most of you are stark illiterates.

adconline:

Even Nigeria with a very low debt to GDP ratio still keeps its money in US currency; still uses JP Morgan Chase to bank and manage its reserve.
US is still the ground zero for global investment thru FDI. Your Politrickians all want to invest in the US.
You are on a delusional crack powered by patriotic exuberance!

omonnakoda:
You say it so it must be true? And you are?

We can do


You are wrong no it is you that is wrongYou are wrong no it is you that is wrongYou are wrong no it is you that is wrong You are wrong no it is you that is wrongYou are wrong no it is you that is wrongYou are wrong no it is you that is wrong

till the next election, it does not add any weight to your OPINION. Your opinion is just another irrelevance in the noise of a raucous market

All that talk of scaring investors in nonsense. What good has investors done us all these years.

We need to fix our power situation ,fight corruption and curb our appetite for foreign goods

No investor will change Nigeria. Only Nigerians will. kudos to the likes of Dangote for believing in his country. Shell has been here for 50 years and did not build a single refinery.
No investor is coming to our rescue so let us abandon that fantasy

NavierStokes:


Even Dubai was built with loans, manage these loans properly and you go. "Wack" it like IBB and coterie did, the end result will be Nigeria as we know it.

adconline:

What a display of willful ignorance..you haven been given a lot data,you should have provided a different source of data-maybe a Naija-made. Since everything in the west is bad, why are u typing with a western-made phone/laptop? A western developed social media sites like FB?
Naija way of blaming someone instead of taking responsibility. Our greedy leaders took loans from IMF and the west and misappropriated those funds, then we are hailing our corrupt leaders and blaming IMF?? Naija is peopled by congenital -eediots.

blueAgent:



True. blacks just don't understand cause and effect . just like to blame others for the failure.

Saintp:


I'm disputing you actually but one question i normally ask is that why are other nations in Asia and other continents who open up to the west doing well? Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Isreal, Australia, Singapore etc but it is only in Africa that our partnership with them is worse off.
It was even when China started going western that they started blowing. Do it actually say something about Africa?

musicwriter:


Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Isreal, Australia, Singapore, are doing well because they invested in science and still invest a lot of money in scientific research and development. Therefore, they know how to manufacture almost everything they need and import just few things.

They can afford to devalue their currencies, because if they do they'll export more goods to the world. On the other hand, we can't afford to devalue our own currency because we don't manufacture anything, so have nothing to export.

No, China used to be very poor before, even up to the early 80's. China was occupied by Japan and Britain, and they were constantly fighting off invaders just like Africa. China started developing when they started looking inward. When they realized that neither Japan nor the west can help them, and that only themselves can help themselves. So, they reformed their system of education and paid huge attention to science subjects which the study in their native language. The result was development.

musicwriter:


Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Isreal, Australia, Singapore, are doing well because they invested in science and still invest a lot of money in scientific research and development. Therefore, they know how to manufacture almost everything they need and import just few things.

They can afford to devalue their currencies, because if they do they'll export more goods to the world. On the other hand, we can't afford to devalue our own currency because we don't manufacture anything, so have nothing to export.

No, China used to be very poor before, even up to the early 80's. China was occupied by Japan and Britain, and they were constantly fighting off invaders just like Africa. China started developing when they started looking inward. When they realized that neither Japan nor the west can help them, and that only themselves can help themselves. So, they reformed their system of education and paid huge attention to science subjects which the study in their native language. The result was development.