FatherOF2:

[quote author=MyPeace link=topic=31554.msg1735102#msg1735102 date=1196433434

This is why i'm getting PHB on the floor at N25.
1. They just announced a bonus of 1 for 4.
2. 6 months result expected at least in January 08'
2. The stock enjoys goodwill post TS.
3. Fair value for me is N32-N33 (Bail out point 25% plus)post TS.
4. Remember GTB (when they start issueing the bonus) stock becomes diluted and some will cash in(Meanwhile you've bailed out) price falls
   and you jump in again after it settles.
5. Know the past deep to predict the future.

.

@Fatherof2
You might want to thread carefully with point #5 as history doesn't always necessarily repeat itself when it comes to stocks trading. I believe that as more and more informed peeps enter into the market, some historical trends, esp. the more obvious ones, will cease to exist

RoughCut:

Ah! welcome back from your sabbatical leave i hope you are back with us full-time_{i know you have another very important full-time commitment}and talking about full-time commitments how's the little madam? hope i got it right  and all the best

i remember we said something about Dangote Flour IPO being expensive because of the PE ratio we arrived  at then and it was agreed it should not have been more than N10 but if the chinese whispers i'm hearing are true because there's a massive massive over-subscription then i think the price when the positions are resolved  will beat the all-comers record on the NSE so the N15 IPO will look like peanuts in comparison but i think it will probably shadow Dangote sugar's price trajectory

Another case of market inefficiency!

Yep, I agree -- another case of market inefficiency, _{and I sort of suspected this would happen}! And just like DSR, the price will most likely first rise sharply and then cool off at a more realistic level which would most likely be when most people will be able to sell. If you didn't buy the IPO, you can take advantage of the folly by buying on the floor and riding up to an exit point, but it's not a long term stock for me.

@ Windywendy

Awaiting ur analysis on Bagco. Could you do PHB too?
Thanks a bunch.


Better to have too much than too little.

samstone4:

@Roughcut, Nairalanders,

I did not buy Dangote Flour because like many others thought it was overrated.
Hear that those who applied for 100,000 will only get 12,000 units!

Should be good for speculators to quickly get in and out. . .
Samstone4

WOW! that's even worse than DSR's oversubscription _{at least I got 88k for every 100k I applied for}! This is sure going to be one joy ride

.

donne4real:

All,

God bless all the people who have been providing excellent analysis and advice on this forum. Does anyone have any experience with the Bank PHB Diaspora account? I learnt that it is similar to the UBA NRN account which has the stock brokerage feature.
How is their service and is it comparable to the UBA NRN?

If you had a choice in both the UBA NRN and hte PHB Diaspora account, which would you select?

Thanks

I dont know about the PHB one, I know someone on here, I think user "NBA" mentioned a delay in opening their Diamond bank one. Really u cant go wrong with UBA, given its stellar reputation as one of the best banks in nigeria. In addition to brokerage services, NRN offers the Mortgage aspect, 11% total interest rate, 20% down payment, giving up to $350k loan.
I am glad I went that route.
I notice Bank PHB has too many clauses to their loan, person has to less than 50, nowhere near retirement, and its not even tied to the diaspora acct.

click here
http://emmaachile.itgo.com/

Mr. Risky:

Femi,

Thank you very much for this news.  Unfortuntely,with the system I now use, I hardly, if ever receive external mail, and so have lost out on the CSL daily market report.  Could you do me a favour please.  Could you be so kind to post the daily market reports from especially CSL beginning from TODAY, it shows the stocks on BID and those on OFFER.  The information helps me a lot, and it also posts COMPANY RESULTS as they are released at the NSE.

PLEASE CONSIDER THIS A SPECIAL REQUEST.

Before I make another appeal LET ME SPECIALLY WELCOME BACK WINDY WENDY, you are especially honoured and respected.  You were missed.  You proved true to your goodself with your recommendation of LEVENTIS.

Now to the other Gentle men and Women,

Could we shift a little further away from ourselves?

Now that Wendy is back and WanajO also back from the UK and Roughcut not currently flying or about to catch a flight, and easimoni too back from his Sabbatical, could we make some stock selections?  What I mean is that could they help pick some stocks for short term (say 6 - 12months  time frame), Medium term (1 - 2years time frame) and others for long term.  And they will help, if they add a brief note against each stock as to the factors influencing their decision.  And also suggested entry price. CAVEAT though is ever there.  As someone said, afterall the money belongs to whoever is using the material for his decision.   That will sure help quench the thirst for some questions that may be lurking in the minds of many lurkers here on the forum.  We will ever remain grateful.

This is important because, in a matter of hours December is here and the beginning of 1st quarter 2008 is just a few weeks away.  I see the Bull going mental come 2008, just my idle prediction though.  I personally do not see the market dropping too low than we are experiencing right now.

REGARDS to you all.  Let's get the thread FOCUSED, we all stand to benefit.

Thanks a lot!! AG leventis is still a long term stock in my portfolio, I like the deal with Cummins -- has a lot of great potential. I've been accumulating and have no plans to sell in the immediate future. I strongly believe this is a N12 - N13 stock based on expected cashflows from their new projects. In addition to the deal with Cummins, they've also been developing new real estate and have embarked on some tourism ventures. I'm accumulating because it's relatively illiquid, but at the right price, liquidity will show up (remember CI leasing?) and guess who'll be doing the selling then   . . . I'm also liking Cornerstone -- I just exited over the last week and am planning to re-enter at some point, depending on what I find about the deal with the so-called PO _{I don't like the sound of the PO yet}. I however like the fact that they've restructured the board and the core PE investors are now actively involved in running the company. That will open a lot of doors as those PE investors have a lot of connections _{just think what's happening to CIleasing with Aureous' influence}. I'm also liking _{no loving} Diamond for the medium to long term. Having read up on them, all I can say is "whao"! Actis is actively using its influence to put those guys on a fast track. I haven't got in yet, because I'm yet to figure out how the GDR will affect my opinion. From a market standpoint though, I like what I see.

Short-term wise, Japaul is good -- I bought a lot at 6.02 when it was on offer, but this was based on both instinct _{yes, instinct}, and some news I heard about the major contracts from some of the oil majors. My broker told me that the one and only Mr. J.A Paul himself had a meeting with the brokers on the floor and told them that with the contracts they have, they'ld do very very well even if they do not get any new business over the next two years. This is really short term for me and I'm still watching closely. Redstar is another good one. I got some during the initial listing. Heard there's a PO in the offing -- it's short term for me because I don't' have much info on them at the moment. For momentum traders, watch first aluminium (yes, I said first aluminium  ). Not a long term play at all, but you can make like 20% -- it's already below its 50-day MA. I strongly suspect (and this is no reason for anyone to be investing) that they might be a takeover target by UC Rusal -- it just makes sense from a purely business standpoint. But then, that's just my opinion, innit

IEI might also be one to watch short term. Those guys seem very innovative and I'm  liking what I see. I however don't like their 16b outstanding shares, and the stock is WAAAAYYYYY overvalued. I don't know what the market sees in it to put such valuation on the stock but I've been "cycling" in and out of that for some time now -- risky but profitable. If it again falls sufficiently, I'm in yet again _{I need more cash to buy more fundamentally sound companies}

@Wanaj0 and Yodiyokun,

Thanks a lot for that spreadsheet. It's absolutely PRICELESS! Whao, such wealth of information. I started to do something like that in order to track stocks in relation to their highs and lows but keeping it updated was such a challenge! You're definitely the official GURU!! Great job, and thanks once again for sharing!

model1780:

@Naijadr

Please is the price chart a representation on furture prices or a chart of the share's past prices, seems to me that its a chart of past prices,

prices from last couple mths till now, it benefits me for the purpose I use it for which is to figure out the pattern and notice the volume, if high then try to find out a reason, why are people buying or selling now? or what made them do that b4 in the past

jehosaphat:

@ Windywendy

Awaiting your analysis on Bagco. Could you do PHB too? 
Thanks a bunch.


Better to have too much than too little.

Will see what I can come up with this weekend.

As an aside, for those who bought the Union Diagnostic PP, I heard it was 100% over-subscribed.

windywendy:

Will see what I can come up with this weekend.

As an aside, for those who bought the Union Diagnostic PP, I heard it was 100% over-subscribed.

Yeah got in at the right time on that one even if i didnt get in on the PP i would have jumped in on the secondary market i mean those guys enjoy a virtual monopoly. If i remember correctly what i read in the PP prospectus their business model is quite unique even though there are other medical dignostics outfits but they look like a monopoly when you drill down to the details of what they are offering so i should clean up on that one!

@ aktopgun, you're surfing nairaland while madam is in labor? Thank God say I no be your wife oh, I for curse you for real   _{just kidding sha} But that's a sure sign of addiction, so it's official : YOU'RE ADDICTED TO THIS THREAD.

Congrats on the birth of the newbie, and welcome to the world of diapers, gurgles, burping, etc etc

RoughCut:

Yeah got in at the right time on that one even if i didnt get in on the PP i would have jumped in on the secondary market i mean those guys enjoy a virtual monopoly. If i remember correctly what i read in the PP prospectus their business model is quite unique even though there are other medical dignostics outfits but they look like a monopoly when you drill down to the details of what they are offering so i should clean up on that one!

Hmmm, are you thinking what I'm thinking? MAJOR CLEAN UP. I hear the certificates have started being despatched by First Registrars (haven't confirmed though) and that listing will happen soon.

Thanks Emmaachile, Yodi and all for the resource.

@ Wanaj0,
If I go  underground then know am reading the spreadsheet.

@WWendy,
Thanks too for the news on Union Diagnostic,
Where is that concerned poster that wanted to know what happend to Union Diagnostic, hope you are reading?
I pray they hit the NSE soon.

@aktopgun
Its not just an addiction its the fact that when i close work its going to take at least 30 mins of reading to catch up so if you get busy and PHCN helps you then one is looking at serious time just to catch up.
Little wonder the NSE is enjoying, However according to experts only 10% of Nigerians are investing.

Happy weekend folks and welcome to A glorious month of December,
Cheers

@wanajo,
Always remember me whenever u are picking any stocks. I'm also a long timer. I'm still learning n hope to start analysing n be picking my own stocks but for now always help a brother. My add is kingypharm@yahoo.com

Geees:

Thanks Emmaachile, Yodi and all for the resource.

@ Wanaj0,
If I go  underground then know am reading the spreadsheet.

Thank you well well. Me? I'm hibernating this weekend to sift through the data. Already dusted my excel and VBA bibles to "align" the data for easier digestion.

Emmaachile, thanks for the upload link. Will use it if/when I have something to share

@ Windywendy

Will see what I can come up with this weekend.

As an aside, for those who bought the Union Diagnostic PP, I heard it was 100% over-subscribed.

Thanks. Little contribution, PHB is in cahoots with Fortis, and they own GTI. And I am a long termer ( 2009 or thereabouts).
How did u hear about Union Diagnostics? I scoured this earth and even nearby planets for info, Apparently you are "standing on the shoulders of giants" like Newton. keep up the good work!

Honorable members of the House,

i have been glued to this forum for the past 2 hours reading from the start. So many experts from all over the world on the Nigerian Stock market. Wish i had actually been in on this a lot earlier.

I would probably be in retirement by now.

Has anyone got an update on the Dangote Flour Mills offer? I subscribed for 20,000 units. The prospectus said the shares will be dispatched by 29th November. Any idea if it was oversubscribed?

I am also thinking of partaking in the bank PHB offer but not sure of the quantity to buy. Heard that if it is oversubscribed people who buy above a certain amount may get there money refunded. Your advise please.

Need to get out of this rat race of 9 -5 ASAP.

WIndywendy

I don bother u tire but abeg apply ur skills to this PP also
http://www.magnusconsulting-ng.com/PrivatePlacement.htm
I have a couple of question marks lingering over it but with things beginning to boom, and IF ( big IF) they bring on management composed of people who know people who know people in charge of National Cake, they just might be on to something. I know this is no Union Diagnostic but ,

[quote windywendy


As an aside, for those who bought the Union Diagnostic PP, I heard it was 100% over-subscribed.
[quote][/quote]


What! 100% over-subscribed?

I can’t believe this, I don’t think I’ll ever be happy with my kid brother, can you believe that I downloaded the Union Diagnostic PP form from this thread, filled it and scanned it to my brother in Nigeria with the money. The funnies part of the whole story is that he was able to collect the money (western union) but said he could not print the scanned document any where in Surulere.
I called him almost everyday till the PP closed and till today he still claims that he can not print the form (jpeg doc)

About the money I send, that one has been used to pay for one thing or the other at LASU (his school)  

My only hope now is at the secondary market, that’s if my broker will be able to get it.

Blackman:

Honorable members of the House,

i have been glued to this forum for the past 2 hours reading from the start. So many experts from all over the world on the Nigerian Stock market. Wish i had actually been in on this a lot earlier.

I would probably be in retirement by now.

Has anyone got an update on the Dangote Flour Mills offer? I subscribed for 20,000 units. The prospectus said the shares will be dispatched by 29th November. Any idea if it was oversubscribed?

I am also thinking of partaking in the bank PHB offer but not sure of the quantity to buy. Heard that if it is oversubscribed people who buy above a certain amount may get there money refunded. Your advise please.

Need to get out of this rat race of 9 -5 ASAP.

I thought Roughcut has answered this questions earlier? Read here ,

i remember we said something about Dangote Flour IPO being expensive because of the PE ratio we arrived at then and it was agreed it should not have been more than N10 but if the chinese whispers i'm hearing are true because there's a massive massive over-subscription then i think the price when the positions are resolved will beat the all-comers record on the NSE so the N15 IPO will look like peanuts in comparison but i think it will probably shadow Dangote sugar's price trajectory

watch naija tv online for free, watching my friend do the business news now
Good info on NSE
http://www.jumptv.com/en/channel/ChannelsTVNigeria/

CrazyT,

thanks for the reply. Must have missed Roughcut's reply. I take it that the news is that it was oversubscribed and keep my fingers crossed that i will get a piece of the action in due time.

I would so hate to miss out on this one. Hope this is the beginning of a new dawn. Am all fired up after reading all your advice.

[quote="Naijadr "]
watch naija tv online for free, watching my friend do the business news now
Good info on NSE
http://www.jumptv.com/en/channel/ChannelsTVNigeria/[/quote]

thought it was free TV but I was wrong

CrazyT,

thanks for the reply. Must have missed Roughcut's reply. I take it that the news is that it was oversubscribed and keep my fingers crossed that i will get a piece of the action in due time.

I would so hate to miss out on this one. Hope this is the beginning of a new dawn. Am all fired up after reading all your advice

If you go back about 1 page you'll see the answer to this question. According to Roughtcut it appears that the IPO was hyper (if this is the word) over subscribed

bjluv:

thought it was free TV but I was wrong

its free, click on watch or play button, its thru windows media player
http://www.jumptv.com/en/channel/ChannelsTVNigeria/

Channels TV
Silverbird
Lagos TV
MiTV
its all free, its been free since last yr

@Naijadr

I have just sent out by courier my application form for joining UBA NRN. You must be pretty impressed with them. Who is your account manager or will it be different for me 'cos I'm in the UK? How long did it take them to open your A/C. I am planning on doing the PHB PO through them.

@Naijadr ---thanks they do play but they are not live. one need to subscribe b4 one can see live
those playable are previews

NAIRALANDERS

If Dangote Flour is going to be oversubscribed then this is confirmation to me that market sentiment could greatly overwhelm fundamentals when applied wisely. In the case of DF, all the pundits and gurus denigrated the stock, too expensive, too this, too that. Dont forget that this is NSE and this is Dangote! After DSR, and with the market share he holds ( with Dangote Flour, who hasnt bought a sack or have a family member use one) I made a gamble to see how much market sentiments would factor into appreciation and it seems like i learned something.
Fingers crossed to see the rest unfold. My stethoscope picks up a growing heartbeat in DF,

Windywendy welcome back!

Will Bagco go the way of DF due to market sentiment? what sayeth thou?
I join to await your analysis with a confocal microscope.!

I am hoping someone can point me to where I can get charting packages for
NSE STOCKS.