Stock Market Tips For Nigerians - Investment (86) - Nairaland
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| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:08pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
yodiyokun: You forgot that there is another option, keep your money for now. WEMA is very risk so you must have a big heart to go for it. Flour Mills is looking good. NBC (not check today's price) is also not bad for the long term. Just experiencing a turn around. Nigerian German still looking attractive. For now, I am staying clear of insurance stocks. There are many behind the scenes going on. For me, the risk is just too much. When all info becomes available (oustanding shares especially), then I can join the train. I see the food and beverages sector doing well next year. |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:10pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
easimoni: I love your guts. Until how much shares is Crusader issuing for the insurance companies they acquire? Any info? |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by REZIGIRL(f): 3:22pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
attn: easimoni, temmie10, wanajo et all, Pls what do u guys think of Lasaco. Do u guys think it's a good buy for now considering the market status? |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by yodiyokun(f): 3:28pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
Wanaj0, I know you are very risk averse in your approach and I appreciate and respect that, but even if crusdaer is accquiring other insurance companies? will it not accquire their market share, assets, and profitability with it. That may be a better approach to expansion and growth rather than coming to the market to raise funds. I know Wema is risky especially without any results, and not too good testimonial in the past. I have not decided on it totally- I will keep the money I want to use for it in hand - it may be worth my while to buy Japaul oil instead . Anyone have the Japaul oil prospectus? My problem with Food and beverages is the rate of return is very moderate and the total cost of ownership is quite high. Anyway, I just start this thing. Do you have any information on Cadbury? we know there are no results yet - but is there any cleansing going on or any corporate action that may show they are on the upward track again. |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 3:54pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
yodiyokun: I am not risk averse. However, I take calculated RISKS. Not risks that are not worth the effort. Not buying blindly based on sentiments. I am not a gambler. Don't have info on Crusader. But just for arguement, how will you know whether Crusader got a fair deal in the merger? What is the pedigree of the companies that they acquired/merged with? What was the state of their books? I can go on and on. Crusader raised funds and also went ahead to acquire some insurance companies. Right now, information is scanty on the insurance companies. What they are not revealing may be more than what they are revealing. Info on Lassaco also is scanty. WEMA is risky but I took the risk a long time ago!!!!! Bought in January, locked in some profit and will ride the tide. What do you mean by rate of return being moderate  barely three years ago Flour Mills was 12.50!!! They gave a bonus 1 for 3 last year. Check out 7-UP some years ago. Maybe I need to check your definition of moderate.Not that much info on Cadury in the public domain. I however heard that they are doing a restructuring. Fresh people employed into teh top positions. Things will likely start to move up. I will however like to see the YE 2006 result to know how bad the situation actually is. NBC is also turning the corner so should do well. Fact is the bullish run has made people to expect 'unrealistic' returns. Of course this is not sustainable. The bearish market is making people to know that. FYI, the banks were not the ones with the highest returns until the consolidation. With the HUGE oustanding shares, itr will be a big challenge for them to sustain the earnings. The Beverages use to be the leader until the GSM came. Most have restrategised now so expect BIG from them going forward. They are now getting connected to gas thus reducing their operating cost. JaPaul is not looking as good as Dangote Flour!!!! |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:15pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
@wanaj0 Its all a question of risk profile and personal investing objectives. A calculated risk at best is still a risk albeit a safer risk. NGC and flour mills may seem safe bets BUT they are no way the best stocks in the market, come a year's time they will not record the most gains in capital appreciation. Its a high risk high reward play. Some invest in the market to get slightly better than fixed deposit returns, others look for much higher returns. Objectives are simply different, hence risk taking will also be different. A few days ago, my broker made a mistake, misread my instructions and sold mbenefits at 3.62, i was furious even though 3.62 still yielded profit. Now its 3.00 and dropping, i am planning a dive in again with all smiles. I like that sector because its always got activity and euphoria that i can take advantage of. I wouldn't be happy at all if i have been holding flour mills for the last few months. Its a stock that i can always take position in when the time's right (and if i so decide, possibly at an even cheaper price), thr's no urgency/activity thr and to me, locking money in there at this time is like putting money in the bank except i am paying commissions. Fundamentals tell us the important basics but timing (when to buy, when to sell, when to hold) is also of utmost importance too at least to someone looking for huge returns. i am still a huge fan of banks because the liquidity is there, they know how to manufacture profits you dun expect time and again (access, phb, afribank etc) and the largest chunk of the nse cap is there, as well as transparency of info thanks to all the po prospectuses flying around, @yodiyokun Cadbury is not for the fainthearted o. While they have a good business model which may yet yield good returns, their case still dey court, and the demons of overstating profits are still hangin around |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by yodiyokun(f): 4:38pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
Hmmm - It always good to bounce off ideas for the right perspective. Wanaj0, I dont see flour mills repeating that feat anytime soon! as for mergers and accquisitions, someone will always have the better end of the stick, I wager it will be crusader. While we await the news of the consolidation exercise, money can still be made. Temmie, I understand you perfectly and I agree with some of your statements - when I have money that I want to investment and completely close my eyes , I will into the blue chip stocks. Cadbury and wema are in the same boat - no results, so we can not tell their direction. But I will watch out for them cautiously. Comparing Japaul oil with Dangote Flour ? isnt that comparing apples with oranges. Thanks guys |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 4:44pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
Cadbury and Wema are different. Cadbury overstated profits. While we can accuse Wema of gross sloppiness and inefficiency of investor relations, cadbury's accusations which are being heard in the law courts center around illegal result manipulation and deceit. |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:52pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
Temmie10: Yes you are right, everything has to do with your personality. That's why I hardly go round making stock recommedations without having an inkling on the type of person. Moreover, I am more of an investor than a trader. I also don't try to time the market. I don't mind if a stock returns 1000%. My risk profile will not allow me to buy if it does not pass through my screening criteria. Now wonder why IBTC do not have some stocks on their selected list? It has to do with risk. Based on the amount of money they are investing, some risks are not worth taking. As you grow your portfolio, you will start to understand that preservation of capital is the first rule of investing. When I talk about calculated risks, I mean I have enough information at my fingertips to make a decision. Don't know how long you've being investing on the NSE. Note however that 2006/2007 is not the norm You need to understand what is responsible for the shift in market dynamics. Never said that NGC and Flour Mills will return the highest capital appreciation. If you know the stocks that will do that, kindly let me know!!!!!!! However, I am comfortable holding companies with steady growth. Later the market will recognise their potential. I always try to have the annual reports of companies that I invest in. I need to know what they are doing, where the profit is coming from and try to see the warning signals. I buy for the long term until there is a shift in fundamentals. I don't try to time the market. |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by shigidi(m): 4:52pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
Temmie10:u hit the nail right on the brain. timing is very important, which is why my james bond questions have been coming in of recent  |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by shigidi(m): 4:55pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
@ wanajo, i remember u posting a few weeks back that banks should be half of an investors portfolio cos of their over 50% growth rate. now, u say they are no good buys in the banking sector right now.  |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 4:59pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
yodiyokun: Don't know how you arrive at the conclusion that Flour Mills will not repeat that feat soon!!!!! The issue, is the fundamentals is strong, they are growing profit, they have few outstanding shares so a bonus issue is easy for them. On crusader and other insurance companies, until I know the outstanding shares, it is a no go area for me. I salute those who are attracted to them. Maybe it has to do with the fact that I bought UNIC at 1.10 last year, NEM was 0.55 and Crusader was less than 2.00. Need to know what has changed apart from teh 'herd' mentality. Any improvement in EPS (outstanding shares will show that) Well you can compare all companies based on returns that they are likely to give. That's the basis of the Japaul and Dangote comparison |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 5:03pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
shigidi: Tell me how successful you are in timing the market? Even the professionals cannot do that!!! Banks will likely constitute 50% of your portfolio. It does mine anyway. That does not contradict the fact that based on current valuation, most banks are either fairly valued or overvalued so why buy them now. Will rather put a HOLD on most ?? |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 5:08pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
@wanaj0 That settles it then, because i like to know people's risk profiles (allergies) too before recommending (prescribing) a stock (drug).  i screen stocks too (probably with a diff criteria though), thats why i have a long list of no-gos. But within my "looking good list", i have found that the market can be timed with a good rate of success and i am sure you have probably done that many times too. Have you ever bought a stock shortly before end of year? have you ever sold shortly before bonus, shortly after po? have you ever taken position? If you like a stock but you know it will be cheaper in 2 months, the wise thing to do is to wait and buy it cheap. These are all examples of timing the market. This is nigeria and your selling, holding, buying will always be more effective with proper timing. Its not just a traders thing. Even warren Buffet, in quoting his mentor Ben Graham said that its timing and pricing that can give the extra edge to an investor. |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by shigidi(m): 5:55pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
@ wanajo, i agree with your caution in the insurance sector but you cannot deny that the insurance sector is where the next gold mine is. and the fact that crusader, wapic and mbenefits are the leaders in that sector means they will do well if not now, later on and there is nothing wrong in taking position now. but like you said, it all depends on the investors goals. thanks for your advice on flour mills, do u think wapco is as solid? |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by teena(f): 5:57pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
@wanaj0 JaPaul is not looking as good as Dangote Flour!!!! Does it mean that Japual is not good for long term investment? Please, reply soon. |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by yodiyokun(f): 6:16pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
Getting the timing right is like knowing what the future holds with certainty, but we can at least try with some reasonableness. @shigidi, Insurance will do well, but I dont think it can be as good as banking except for those that bought the shares at < 1 or 2 naira. We have to remember that insurance business still has a long way to go in this country where there is little or no disposable income. An average lagosian has a bank account, how many have insurance policies - whether motor, house or life. This may change , hopefully as Nigeria changes for the better. @Wanaj0, You are right that the larger the portfolio, the greater the caution. The Banks I have right now, I will hold on to them but I doubt that I will buy any more soon. Its wiser to redirect one's focus to other sectors of the market. |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by loma(m): 6:55pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
All, Here is the link to the Japaul Prospectus. http://www.japaulplc.com/Prospectus4Web.pdf Did anyone notice the performance of AP since Otedola took over? Is it a buy/hold or sell at the moment? |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by easimoni(m): 9:00pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
yodiyokun: I would argue that's all the more reason for the Ins. companies to grow at a larger rate; there's a large untapped market. And as wealth increases, more people will be aware of the need to insure valuable property. After all, the best investment is always protecting what you already have. In other words, a bird in hand, |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pangolo: 11:45pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
Gurus, esquires and all, We were all pumped up about Japaul, hearing it was pretty much a monopoly in the area of oil services and it had won mouthwatering contracts and now we are hearing there were "misrepresentations" in their financial facts and it might not be as good as originally thought. Those levelling these revelations, could you shed more light please It is not enough to say it not good without satisfying the curiosity of expectant nairalanders. Please give us more light, this is hard earned money we are looking at Make person no get sleepless night ( and day), TEMMIE 10, Easimoni, Frankiriri, Wanajo, yodiyokun, all the numerous gurus, My people perish for lack of knowledge, where knowledge full everywhere na im be say life plenty, OVER TO UNA!! |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pangolo: 11:46pm On Sep 25, 2007 |
Long live pangolo!! |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 8:46am On Sep 26, 2007 |
yodiyokun: If you are in for the long term, timing makes little difference in that your screening criteria will determine whether to BUY or not. For me, I don't try to time the market. For example, can you tell me the lowest and highest that First Bank, Zenith, Oceanic etc will be for teh remainder of the year? On Insurance, the sector will do well in that there are opportunities. However, the regulatory environment need to be improved upon to make the sector what it ought to be. Local content policy of NNPC should favour them provided the policy will be enforced. Group liife policy will also benefit them. Note however that because of the rules, the dividend payout of insurance companies is small. This is because of the reserve requirement. Don't forget that they are covering risk and if the risk should materialise, claims may actually wipe off their capital base. So while the opportunity is there, the risk is also enormous. Part of the problem of insurance companies in Nigeria is image. This is a consequence of their lateness and reluctance to settle claims. Banking is still good but marrgins will start to drop and with the bloated oustanding shares the PE's will likely hit the roof tops. WAPCo is solid but don't expect a fatanstic declaration. They are still paying of debt and will need further investment to remain relevant. They may become a marginal player if they don't do something fast. On sectoral performance, it is more like a yearly thing. 2003/2004 was for the oil marketing companies because of the deregulation policy that period. 2004/2005 was for the cement companies because of the ban on importation policy that came out. 2005/2006 was for the banks because of the consolidation policy. 2006/2007 is for the insurance companies because of the consolidation policy. So which sector will the main one in 2007/2008. I tend to tip the manufacturing(including health care). They will benefit from lower interest rate, improvement in energy supply and going forward improvement in infrastructure thus reducing their operational expenses (distribution cost) |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Temmie10(m): 9:44am On Sep 26, 2007 |
@pangolo Based on past performance, Japaul was overvalued as i explained 2 days ago. But then, do you really buy a stock for past performance? rather its the expected future performance that one discounts and the possibility of the company meeting or indeed surpassing its forecasts. Case in point, Fidelity came out with their po last year at a trailing pe of 16 and a forward pe of 8 (no company comes this cheap again unfortunately). Their performance this year has been miles better than they forecasted (which seemed hugely ambitous at the time), this has sent the price rocketing and some are now screaming overvalued. But it can be argued that the current price discounts the ability of the management to surpass expectations or the wisdom of a management that makes hugely modest forecasts. Over here in uk, most companies that come up with an offer make hugely modest predictions so that the results will exceed the forecasts and in turn shareholders will love the company and the company will have good credibility with analysts. Back to Japaul, their forecasts are interesting, it could easily be a 10-12 naira stock by 2009. I certainly think it should not trade below 5 currently (thats a forward pe of 13). They still have the contracts and their forecasts do not seem impossible/overly ambitous given the money they are raising. Final decision is yours |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Tmoni(m): 9:50am On Sep 26, 2007 |
this bearish market makes calculation of ones portfolio look like a dooms day scene, does anyone hv an idea when oceanic bank would give us sth, our money or the stocks, @temmie and wanjo, very good analysis, pls keep it up |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by REZIGIRL(f): 10:55am On Sep 26, 2007 |
Tmoni: |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 12:25pm On Sep 26, 2007 |
REZIGIRL: Actually, if you are in it for the long term, you should not get too worried with the daily flunctuations except there is a shift in the FUNDAMENTALS of the companies you have shares in. Also, watchout for negative news or shit in policy. Apart from that, you are coming to the real life where stocks go up and down in the short term but most often on the long term it goes UP. Also, September/October is normally a bearish period. All the results are out so nothing to excite the market. Things will likely become active again between Nov/Dec. Apart from 2005, Jan-Mar is always the bullish period on NSE. Also, once the insurance funds are released, there will be more activity. Note however that the market is also recognising the fact that most of the stocks are currently fairly valued or over valued. So at the 'right' price, activities will pick up. |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by Tmoni(m): 1:06pm On Sep 26, 2007 |
so can i get more diamond bank now, we are in for long term except my sterling and wema but the realisation of what u have and what u had is big, the self satisfaction, every N1 is a big issue |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by whitelexi(m): 1:23pm On Sep 26, 2007 |
Tmoni: Guys, look at the bright side, its a wonderful period to buy more and more, the share prices have dropped, yes, but it wont stay like this forever. Theres gotto be some risks involved but this is when the bulls stand out! So, pick yourselves up and stop moaning like a cow |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by yodiyokun(f): 2:08pm On Sep 26, 2007 |
whitelexi, You are quite right, this is the best time to buy. Today ended on a further bearish note for banking, insurance and building sectors - havent checked the others. |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by wanaj0: 2:47pm On Sep 26, 2007 |
yodiyokun: Go and BUY Dangote Sugar. It is now about 31.00. That is a bargain!!!!!! At least, it should reach 40.00 easily!!!! |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by yodiyokun(f): 3:38pm On Sep 26, 2007 |
Quite a number of stocks are at bargain prices currently - Its so painful, I dont have more money to take advantage of the situation. |
| Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by MyPeace(f): 3:42pm On Sep 26, 2007 |
yodiyokun: Which stock would u take position if u have enof cash. Please i might be interested. l bought lasaco at 3.25 and now its alot cheaper, and that was my first stake in secondary market, l need a stock to compensate me for that in a moment. Am still holding on to that stock until their full year result by next year. |
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