Temmie10:

Its a con job being spinned by many companies on the exchange.
wapic did a public offer and rights issue totalling 1.25 billion shares in the same year they issued the audited statement you are talking about.

You now know why I am suspicious of those companies.

I was aware of the rights and public offer by WAPIC. What they did was to exclude those shares from the Feb 2007 end year result. For the uninformed, you will not be able to analyse the companies very well.

I hope people are not just getting carried away. That sector is currently in crisis. Jimoh Ibrahim is ready to fight dirty!

MyPeace:

Wanajo, lts not posible. Every shareholder is holding on to the shares for now. l don't even have any of it and wished to have.

Abeg let's talk!!!! We may be able to work out a deal. What is your number or e-mail address. I must partake in that TransExpress loot!. That is a 4.00 share!

ok, email me here ask4angel06@yahoo.com

Got your e-mail already. Sent two e-mails on two sensitive issues

wanaj0:

Got your e-mail already. Sent two e-mails on two sensitive issues

Wanaj0, Wanaj0, Wanaj0 ---- how many times did I call you!!

Your eyes too dey shine for money

Anyone knows what is going on with Bank PHB.

Those guys are off the roof. they just released their 1st qtr results 3.5B PAT

Any one has the list of their outstanding shares - before their proposed bonus issue?

It also seems they plan to come to the market?

Meanhwile Dangote has started again ooo, Dividend of 40kobo this man no go kill person.

And I do not have the shares? chei?

yodiyokun:

Wanaj0, Wanaj0, Wanaj0 ---- how many times did I call you!!

Your eyes too dey shine for money

My eyes go start to shine when I reach $10m net asset value.

yodiyokun:

Anyone knows what is going on with Bank PHB.

Those guys are off the roof. they just released their 1st qtr results 3.5B PAT

Any one has the list of their outstanding shares - before their proposed bonus issue?

It also seems they plan to come to the market?

Meanhwile Dangote has started again ooo, Dividend of 40kobo this man no go kill person.

And I do not have the shares? chei?

This Dangote man is making me angry with all this dividend. Is he not a Nigerian? Dividend does not move the market. A bonus will make the price to skyrocket. However, because the guy need to take money out, he has to declare dividend. 40k for his 7bn shares translate to N2.8b dividend warrant for the guy!!!!! With 10bn shares oustanding possibility of bonus is very remote!

If that is what he will be doing, no more buying of any Dangote company. Thank God I did not make the mistake of buying the Flour!

Bank PHP is planning to come to the market so expect many juicy news. I cannot be decieved. See as Zenith has found its level.

wanaj0:

This Dangote man is making me angry with all this dividend. Is he not a Nigerian? Dividend does not move the market. A bonus will make the price to skyrocket. However, because the guy need to take money out, he has to declare dividend. 40k for his 7bn shares translate to N2.8b dividend warrant for the guy!!!!! With 10bn shares oustanding possibility of bonus is very remote!

If that is what he will be doing, no more buying of any Dangote company. Thank God I did not make the mistake of buying the Flour!

Bank PHP is planning to come to the market so expect many juicy news. I cannot be decieved. See as Zenith has found its level.

Wanaj0,

Na true you talk!. It because of their impending offer that we are seeing bright lights, they too will soon join the likes of Oceanic with diluted shares.

Do not expect bonus from Dansugar lai lai. But your analysis of him taking 2.8Billion every quarter out of the profit is not good news ooo. But its good news for investors with dividend payout as their goal.

I hope the price will fall to 31 again , I will swoop on it.

Generally, from the look of the market I joined the party too late. We should not expect the kind of bull run experienced in the last 52 weeks in the immediate future.

My People what is going on with Costain? It has been on the losing streak since Monday.

It closed today at 18.35. I almost bought it last week at N21

@ Wanaj0,
WAPIC has 4.2B shares and Crusader appears to be the pick of the insurance companies. I disagree with your notion of 20 being to high a PE for insurance companies. Sure they are not as solid as banks but the growth rate in that industry in phenomenal! If anything, they should be selling at a higher premium. But you are right in saying it's murky waters. I still can't trace the full pic of outstanding shares for most companies.

@ yodiyokum, Bank PHB has 8B shares (including the bonus that closed yesterday). Very solid outlook. Looks like they are setting us up for a PO. The forward PE (15) is now the lowest in the banking sector.

easimoni:

@ Wanaj0,
WAPIC has 4.2B shares and Crusader appears to be the pick of the insurance companies. I disagree with your notion of 20 being to high a PE for insurance companies. Sure they are not as solid as banks but the growth rate in that industry in phenomenal! If anything, they should be selling at a higher premium. But you are right in saying it's murky waters. I still can't trace the full pic of outstanding shares for most companies.

PE of 20 is high for the insurance industry. Historically they average about 6.00. With low dividend payout and requirement to retain a large part of their profit as reserves, dividend yield is historically on the low side. While the growth potential is there, teh sector is still wobbling. Just imagine how the consolidation is going.

Risky's numbers looks realistic for me compared with the other figures being bandied around. Crusader is the jewel out there.

IBTC is adding another 3.4b shares to Platinum shares. Not sure where that is coming from. Well, it will never be high on my list. Oceanic is good but not for the short term. IBTC will also do well but is not available.

easimoni:

@ easimoni
WAPIC has 4.2B shares and Crusader appears to be the pick of the insurance companies.

it looks like crusader is about to come to the market for ANOTHER offer:
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/09/25/2966027.htm

is it still advisable to go for this stock now, or wait for the offer?

@all Gurus

l've been studying this thread & a few others over the past few months and finally my peeps, l think l'm ready to contribute intelligently

Kudos to all my Gurus & they know themselves

Pls can someone give us the figs for Diamond bank: Outstanding shares, half/full year results et all, we need to project for their PO which is rumoured to take place 1st Qtr 2008!

Also methink NGC is not very liquid (imagine only 7K shares exchangingg hands today) so only a bonus issue can drive up the price, so NGC perform o!

Sebi l try?!

@easimoni,
If crusader is the pick, with 200k to invest in the secondary mkt, what would u advise?
let's sayi'm in for 9months only.
Crusader?
C&I Leasing?
Wema?

thanks.

I just dey write to contribute on page hundred of this forum dat made me financially independent. How Page 100 go reach and I no go comment?!!! Na LIE. It is just like missing 10 or 50 year anniversary of wedding, So here we go, comment, comment, comment, comment,


On a more serious note. I was asking why Temmie10 and Shigidi were seeming to like Access regardless of the fact that they have already lost steam and momentum. What's the rationale behind that?

Any takers on Bank PHB vs Costain public offer if it ever comes down to that?

wanaj0:

IBTC is adding another 3.4b shares to Platinum shares. Not sure where that is coming from. Well, it will never be high on my list.

Platinum declared 1-for-4 and it was effected yesterday, that is where the 3.4b units came from

walcolm:

Platinum declared 1-for-4 and it was effected yesterday, that is where the 3.4b units came from

Nope. The 1 for 4 was alaredy factored in.

thanks 2 everyone on this thread, u've all been wonderful, i've just got 1 question as a fresh man investor;
1. i've got my cscs no. and my clearing house no. from my brokers( partnership inveatment limited) but i cant log onto the cscs website with it. i would like to confirm my ownership of the shares which i bought through partnership investment but i still have no evidence except the credit notes which they issued me for the shares. please let me know how i can confirm this. thanks

p.s. happy 100th page anniversary!!!! hope we all see page 1000

Dear All,

          Evaluation of  Japaul P.O


        Critical Ratios -  the company has been making money but at a declining rate for the past years especially the last two FY .Current year results may however  reverse the trend.The picture is a firm with declining operating margins.The company had liquidity issuees as current liabilities outweighed current assets, hence negative working capital.This simply means the firm could not pay its bills without borrowed funds, this was the trend between 2002-05 FY , however there was a turnaround in the 2006 FY with a positive working capital of 170m. This may be explained by the capital injectionfrom equity capital raised in 2005 when the firm got listed on the NSE.

  Particularly worrisome to me is the huge amount of capital -assets tied down in TRADE DEBTORS/ ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE, representing  27% of Net Assets in '04, 33% in '05 and 45% in 06% , clearly an uptrend.This limits the use to which these funds may be used to generate value for shareholders.Added  to this concern is the average collection period , a whopping 985 days in FY2006 ! this is a measure of the period it takes the company to get paid for services rendered, the 2005 FY was 847 days.Information is limited which makes comparison difficult , moreso that Japaul is the only listed firm in the sector.

Leverage/Gearing
        considering the liquidity problems the company had its  hardly surprising that the firm had to be financed by debt , 306m for FYE 2006.Interest expense rose by 250% between 05 and 06 FY.The company's leverage  is higher compared to historical figures and represents significant additional
Financial risk to the shareholders , i mean the risk of debt on earnings to shareholders. Lets put this in perspective ,the firm has to pay interest charges to debtors and the government takes it bite with taxes before declaring PAT, hence the more debt the firm takes on as part of its cpital structure the less the Net income available to shareholders. As per taxes, the  firm has a Deferred Tax Liability of 56m from 2006 FY. Liability that needs to be taken care of ,going forward  but not big enough to cause alarm. From the prospectus, the company does not have any Off -Balance Sheet liability.

Having looked at the potential liabilities, there are some good reasons to take up the offer , the firm is in expansion mode, that is , it is growing its business and it has good potentials , it benefits from regulatory advantages from the Local Content Law, its an emerging brand in the oil and gas sector.The expansion is reflected in Net Capital Expenditures which has been growing, Fixed assets grew by 57% between 2006-06 FY,while Return on Assets creased slightly from 16.3% to 18.1% btw 2005-06.Though margins have been declining ,there is still plenty o from for potential growth .With the equity capital being raised through this P.O, the firm should , in my view, reduce its reliance on debt finance thereby reducing the financial risk of shareholders. I anticipate  further capital appreciation over the next 12/15 months, ceteris paribus, all things being equal. Personally , i feel the growth potentials overrides the concerns raised earlier.One needs to remember this are historical figures which indicates trends, more importantly you need to determine if the company can grow and create value for shareholders.As per the offer price , i do not consider the discount , i see the discount as a sales gimmick, the regular Naija factor of whipping up the sgare price before P.Os.The offer price is just about the fair value, the discount should not be a reason to take up the offer.

Management / Corporate Governance / Dividend Policy

The management of the company seems to be very willing to return value to shareholders in form of cash dividends ,as the payout ratio indicates, increasing from 58% to 74% btw 2005-06 FY,despite falling margins.Apparently mgt chose to borrow funds than reduce dividend payout. This good is a good sign moreso considering the naija mentality.
The M.D Paul Jegede owns 24% of the company , the single largest shareholders as no other shareholder has more than 5%.This is booth good and bad. Good because the company's results affects the MD's purse  but it may affect cash dividend / stock dividend decision depending on his personal interest.

Before you take the leap, remember what is good for the goose may not necessarily be good for the gander. For me, I am in on this one but timeframe and investment objectives differ. The projections going forward are achievable but one needs to review one's position periodically. Japaul has good fundamentals .To a large extent ,the decision to buy into the PO depends on your risk profile and timeframe.On this, am going long.You might take a look at the opprtunity cost of taking part in the offer.

In writing this  i have been handicapped by the lack of access to the CASHFLOW STATEMENT , which is very important because it tells nthe story of the sources and uses of CASH by the company.Despite the handicap its worth your money if you have a reasonable timeframe. I hope this helps someone because this thread has help me in more ways than one, it has changed me for the better.

All dem gurus , i hope i have the benefit of your views.

For old clients, the on line access is active but the data is not always correct. For new clients, they are not providing on line access except it changed just last week.

Since the merger/acquisition with Afrinvest, their stockbroking performance has dropped. They seem to focus on other areas now.

Your account officer also matters. Right now, Bis is one of the best. Susan is also not doing badly. Will stay away from Dollop though!!!!



self-service,

Please again since Afinvest are into other things that they pay little attention to broking services are advicing that one should stay away from them? if yes what stock broker firm would you advice one should open account with that has good online services?

@Wanajo and other gurus,
Is there a chance I'd benefit from the div and bonus declared by FBN given that I bought on the dayd the register closed? The same question applies to FMNL. Thanks

Thumb up to all the Guru in d house (easimoni, wanaj0 yodiyokun, walcolm and the rest )
U guys are really doing a good job

I am looking at buying into private placement of IAA insurance
and picking some International energy insurance as well
I will like to know if this is the best time to go into it

jehosaphat:

I just dey write to contribute on page hundred of this forum that made me financially independent. How Page 100 go reach and I no go comment?!!! Na LIE. It is just like missing 10 or 50 year anniversary of wedding, So here we go, comment, comment, comment, comment,

Una no go kill me for nairaland. You don extend the marking of '100 days in office ' to nairaland thread. You be politician?

Mr. Cee:

For old clients, the on line access is active but the data is not always correct. For new clients, they are not providing on line access except it changed just last week.

Since the merger/acquisition with Afrinvest, their stockbroking performance has dropped. They seem to focus on other areas now.

Your account officer also matters. Right now, Bis is one of the best. Susan is also not doing badly. Will stay away from Dollop though!!!!





self-service,

Please again since Afinvest are into other things that they pay little attention to broking services are advicing that one should stay away from them? if yes what stock broker firm would you advice one should open account with that has good online services?

Go for Afrinvest. They are my ONLY broker. Had opportunities to try others but not impressed. itsyour account officer that matters most.

Yes they are into other things. Stockbroking does not bring that much money so I do not blame them.

aksance:

it looks like crusader is about to come to the market for ANOTHER offer:
http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2007/09/25/2966027.htm

is it still advisable to go for this stock now, or wait for the offer?

The gist was in the guardian newspaper a few days ago.
Interesting developments there. The company's figures remain impressive in any case.

Temmie10:

The gist was in the guardian newspaper a few days ago.
Interesting developments there. The company's figures remain impressive in any case.

No totally true report.

No interim dividend was paid put final dividend of 15k per share.

Authorised capital was raised. Board also given approval to issue new shares (by rights, PO, merger). This was just o prevent them from calling another EGM to consider such issues again. Don't see them coming to the market at least not this year!

wanaj0:

No totally true report.

No interim dividend was paid put final dividend of 15k per share.

Authorised capital was raised. Board also given approval to issue new shares (by rights, PO, merger). This was just o prevent them from calling another EGM to consider such issues again. Don't see them coming to the market at least not this year!

Interim dividend of 15k was recommended way back in May and now has been approved as the final.
the company had indicated that much earlier when they released their half year report

http://www.ubagroup.com/investors/Update_091007.asp

Information about UBA allotment.

UBa now has over 11b shares

@ barge
Your info is too late. We dey here dey cry dey shout for info on Japaul u come dey come with this one. Thanks sha,
E just be like say you dey present soup after I don chop my eba dry.

@ wanajo, yes i was a late comer in nospetco, but thank God i recoverd something. net loss was 300,000, at least i live to fight another day .
EVERY ONE PLEASE NOTE THE ADDED 3.4BN SHARES FOR BANK PHB WAS ADDED DUE TO THE PROPOSED PO, they are trying to raise 75bn. bank phb looks good but by the time those new shares are added it will at best be a long term BUY.
congratulations on page 100 of this topic. may we reach 1000 one day