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Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. - Politics (2) - Nairaland

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Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by Nobody: 4:11am On Nov 21, 2016
hydroking23:



You didn't even address amagunnerfan's points. He clearly laid out the financial situation of the country during Yar Aduas time up to GEJ taking over after his death. Yet you couldn't refute any of the financial evidence provided that clearly indicate that GEJ mismanaged our economy. Please prove it wrong.....
stop lying....

Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by Pavarottii(m): 5:19am On Nov 21, 2016
9jatriot:
There is only one fundamental rule of economics and it is called "Demand and Supply"

Our balance of trade is deficit against us, that means that we require more dollars right now that we are getting. That is because of 2 reasons:
1: Our income source has reduced drastically (this one needs no explanation)
2: We are a consumer nation that import virtually everything. This results in a heavy craze for the few available dollars.

The best time to solve a problem was yesterday, the next best time is today. If we for example did not need to import fuel by getting them from our refinery, that would have freed up that aspect of the forex sourcing, if all our rice factories were working, we would not import rice and forex from there will be available for something else. If we were not importing clothes and our textile mills were working we would have freed up that forex.

There is no magic that any economics will generate that will solve any of the dollar problem as long as our income is low and our import remains high. Its that simple and yet hard.


Wait, so who are u blaming here?
Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by mrvitalis(m): 6:21am On Nov 21, 2016
NgcoboP:

shut up and keep your ignorance hidden

We have always known Jonathan was an educated illiterate

The question is what was our dollar demand then to our reserves then compare with dolla demand now.... u have less than 5 months demand with dismissed forex in come and ur talking rubbish


Y did I reply u self
Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by Nobody: 6:25am On Nov 21, 2016
mrvitalis:

We have always known Jonathan was an educated illiterate

The question is what was our dollar demand then to our reserves then compare with dolla demand now.... u have less than 5 months demand with dismissed forex in come and ur talking rubbish


Y did I reply u self
hockus pockus ... jibber jabber
Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by mrvitalis(m): 6:31am On Nov 21, 2016
NgcoboP:

hockus pockus ... jibber jabber
Google is ur friend
Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by Nobody: 6:32am On Nov 21, 2016
mrvitalis:
Google is ur friend
poppycock
Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by Tiffbuxas: 6:39am On Nov 21, 2016
reemix123:
Very ghetto write up. ..poor analysis go back to school. you didn't even mention the source of income. .start by telling us where the dollar comes from
oga pls until we see your write up..... And until we see ur primary 6 certificate... I advice u shut da hell up and stop criticizing peoples opinion.... Even if it may not be true

1 Like

Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by Tiffbuxas: 6:47am On Nov 21, 2016
9jatriot:
There is only one fundamental rule of economics and it is called "Demand and Supply"

Our balance of trade is deficit against us, that means that we require more dollars right now that we are getting. That is because of 2 reasons:
1: Our income source has reduced drastically (this one needs no explanation)
2: We are a consumer nation that import virtually everything. This results in a heavy craze for the few available dollars.
The best time to solve a problem was yesterday, the next best time is today. If we for example did not need to import fuel by getting them from our refinery, that would have freed up that aspect of the forex sourcing, if all our rice factories were working, we would not import rice and forex from there will be available for something else. If we were not importing clothes and our textile mills were working we would have freed up that forex.

There is no magic that any economics will generate that will solve any of the dollar problem as long as our income is low and our import remains high. Its that simple and yet hard.



I tot that's how It has been since 1991 until the master of recession took over and initiated operation free fall of da naira
Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by realborn(m): 6:51am On Nov 21, 2016
obailala:
"In the end, foreign investors took over $80B out of the economy within a short period and everything went down to free fall"
Are you sure you know what $80 billion is?
Do you know that oil export accounts for up to 90% of Nigeria's monthly forex inflow?.... Are you aware the amount of forex inflow has reduced by up to 60% courtesy of oil price plunge and reduced oil output (thanks to NDA and co)?... Now if you studied elementary economics you should know the demand and supply laws and you should know what happens when supply of forex drops dangerously but the demand almost remains constant?
Are you aware that within 6 months between November 2014 and May 2015, Nigeria's forex reserves dropped by a whooping $10billion from $38.5 to $28.5bn?... This was when we still had the so called world class economic team and economic managers and this was even when the oil crash was still at the early stages and still selling above $65/barrel (as at May 2015). Due to the negative balance of trade (less forex inflow than outflow), reserves dropped by $10billion in 6 months and this didn't still prevent the Naira from crashing from N160 to N220. The first thing the new administration did was to impose restrictions on the release of forex by the CBN to prevent it dropping to zero (Venezuela).
Of course the restrictions (which was indeed a life saving inevitable venture) eventually caused dollar price to increase rapidly (demand and supply theory) and the restrictions also forced several foreign investors to unfortunately leave. But would you have rather had the vault of the CBN forex reserves opened to those investors and watched Nigeria instantly drop down to a Venezuelan situation?....
And finally, whatever capital flight that may have occurred due to foreigners leaving is just a scratch on the surface compared to the damage done by the crash in oil prices and the NDA driven reduction in production. Don't let politicians or sentimentally angry people distort the simple narrative, a spade must be called a spade. If oil price doesn't come back up miraculously, diversification is the only way out of the current situation and it takes time 9years) and money to diversify an economy.

It is exciting to see that there is still one person with the right capacity to comprehend. Well done on all your analysis. Very spot on!

1 Like

Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by MrPristine: 7:38am On Nov 21, 2016
hydroking23:



You didn't even address amagunnerfan's points. He clearly laid out the financial situation of the country during Yar Aduas time up to GEJ taking over after his death. Yet you couldn't refute any of the financial evidence provided that clearly indicate that GEJ mismanaged our economy. Please prove it wrong.....

What are you ranting about Did I at any time say that Gej did not mismanage the economy? Why do you Buhari apologists always assume that anyone criticizing Buhari is a Gej supporter?
Re: Real Reason Why The Naira Is Crashing. by mrvitalis(m): 7:49am On Nov 21, 2016
MrPristine:


Being a trained economist myself I understand the point you are trying to make but it does not take away from the issue this article is trying to address and that is that Buhari 's utterances and lack of sound economic planning and management is aiding capital flight thereby making the naira suffer additional beating. As at today the naira is undervalued and that's due to capital flight and not just excessive demand for financing imports after the supply side as diminished based on the fall in oil prices.
The effect is negligible

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