Ugosample:

Did you just say that Nigeria is the most indebtor country in the world
That means you have ZERO idea on this subject matter

list country that request for loan than Nigeria?? then I'll keep shut my mouth

Adebowale89:




list country that request for loan than Nigeria?? then I'll keep shut my mouth

There are several ways of getting indebted as a country.
And besides, America is the most indebted country in the world, owing more than 30% of that debt to foreign governments and entities (trillions of dollars)
Britain is a very indebted country too.

Blue3k:
@lordadam 16 abd @omoheyek we know policy is trash. Do you two think this will effect ERGP. Alot of the plan depends on foreign investment in various sectors. Even if the domestic has to import equipment, government has to borrow loans in dollars because nobody want naira debt, projects are slowed because investors and institutions don't like polies.

I feel like going to grind slowly. I still wonder if can boost oil production 2.2 billion barrels like the said. That's a big part of plan.

The EGRP like many plans before it sounds good on paper. Of course, I can't agree with everything on there, but most of it is achievable and realistic.

What I don't get tho' is how they think they'd be able to delay a full float until 2020 and still get investors to invest in the real sector. Sounds like a pipe dream because a simple convergence wouldn't do the trick. Any thing short of a full float is a waste of time and dollars. Investors have been very clear and the IMF just echoes their conviction.

Unless they want to switch their focus to doing more deals with China to fund projects that Chinese companies build and hope that their $5b payment to oil majors would get them to continue investing in the oil sector, which should make their 2.2m bpd possible (I read somewhere 2.5m bpd is their target tho'). And then go ahead with their plan to liquidate some assets.

Right now, the plan seems to not factor in copious amount of FDI or huge loans for development which is different from what's in the MTEF. For that I wish them good luck, they'd need lots of it.

On the bright side, Dangote refinery is coming on stream in 2018, so yea, we should be able to hit the target of 60% reduction of fuel imports by 2018. It's funny that the major parts of the EGRP that could be realized are actually parts that are outside of government control, such as Dangote refinery investment and oil majors investments in the upstream sector.

I wouldn't keep my hopes up about the EGRP. Buhari was foaming that he wouldn't devaluate anytime soon last year, barely weeks later he succumbed. The track record of policy somersault leaves more to be desired. So, yeah, it's all about watching them do whatever they say they'd do from a distance. I'd be damned if I expected much from them, better to keep expectations low and be overwhelmed than keep them high and be underwhelmed.

-Lord

Blue3k:
@lordadam 16 abd @omoheyek we know policy is trash. Do you two think this will effect ERGP. Alot of the plan depends on foreign investment in various sectors. Even if the domestic has to import equipment, government has to borrow loans in dollars because nobody want naira debt, projects are slowed because investors and institutions don't like polies.

I feel like going to grind slowly. I still wonder if can boost oil production 2.2 billion barrels like the said. That's a big part of plan.

I think the EGRP is mostly wishful thinking by the Osinbajo faction in the government, and even the mild concessions it makes to economic reality will be too much for an intellectually limited and rigid thinker like Buhari. Even if Buhari became an overnight convert to market principles, many of the proposals would close off avenues currently exploited by the political class for self-enrichment, and their passage would require a level of cunning and persistence Buhari has never displayed. As such, the plan stands no real chance of being even half implemented.

As you've already put it so well, I'll limit myself to saying I agree with you completely. The lack of free convertibility of the Naira is the nail in the coffin for the plan.

LordAdam:


The EGRP like many plans before it sounds good on paper. Of course, I can't agree with everything on there, but most of it is achievable and realistic.

What I don't get tho' is how they think they'd be able to delay a full float until 2020 and still get investors to invest in the real sector. Sounds like a pipe dream because a simple convergence wouldn't do the trick. Any thing short of a full float is a waste of time and dollars. Investors have been very clear and the IMF just echoes their conviction.

Unless they want to switch their focus to doing more deals with China to fund projects that Chinese companies build and hope that their $5b payment to oil majors would get them to continue investing in the oil sector, which should make their 2.2m bpd possible (I read somewhere 2.5m bpd is their target tho'). And then go ahead with their plan to liquidate some assets.

Right now, the plan seems to not factor in copious amount of FDI or huge loans for development which is different from what's in the MTEF. For that I wish them good luck, they'd need lots of it.

On the bright side, Dangote refinery is coming on stream in 2018, so yea, we should be able to hit the target of 60% reduction of fuel imports by 2018. It's funny that the major parts of the EGRP that could be realized are actually parts that are outside of government control, such as Dangote refinery investment and oil majors investments in the upstream sector.

I wouldn't keep my hopes up about the EGRP. Buhari was foaming that he wouldn't devaluate anytime soon last year, barely weeks later he succumbed. The track record of policy somersault leaves more to be desired. So, yeah, it's all about watching them do whatever they say they'd do from a distance. I'd be damned if I expected much from them, better to keep expectations low and be overwhelmed than keep them high and be underwhelmed.

-Lord

Americans are just using IMF to monitor and destabilise Our economy. Don't take that shit.

Abi ko fe da fun imf ni

omohayek:


I think the EGRP is mostly wishful thinking by the Osinbajo faction in the government, and even the mild concessions it makes to economic reality will be too much for an intellectually limited and rigid thinker like Buhari. Even if Buhari became an overnight convert to market principles, many of the proposals would close off avenues currently exploited by the political class for self-enrichment, and their passage would require a level of cunning and persistence Buhari has never displayed. As such, the plan stands no real chance of being even half implemented.

Completely true.

And let's not forget that the core of the implementation is supposed to occur in 2018 (campaign year) and 2019 (election year).

That said, Nigeria is already exiting a recession thanks to rising oil prices that are poised to go as high as $65 by H2 2017. Dangote's refinery is coming online in 2018 and with that over 35% of our FX needs will be axed. With higher oil prices, reduced FX demand, and no plan to use reserves to prop the economy, FX reserves should continue rising.

The point is that Nigeria is on auto-pilot to get back on track without any significant input from the government (aside phantom disbursements), but the FG and APC will be ready to take these automatic gains as signs that the EGRP is working. The timing of the release could not have been more auspicious.

All Buhari has to do is continue with the subsidy for fuel as is the case now through the NNPC, keep FX interventions below $3.7b/quarter, then announce a minimum wage increment in H2 2018, and he'd be set for re-election in 2019. APC will use dangote refinery, recession exit, and what not to fill up the polity as Buhari's "achievements."

So in a way, Buhari/Osinbajo do not even have to implement the EGRP. Maybe they have no intention of implementing it even. They just released it for the camera and to tender something so they can receive the next tranche of loans from the AfDB, which they'd stack to share in 2019. They only have to do that which they've been doing since 2015, leave everything on auto-pilot and point all expected positive indices as "the desired outcomes of EGRP implementation."

Trust the illiterate and undiscerning populace to fall for it.

-Lord

[quote author=LordAdam16 post=55310224]

Stop lying.

The Egyptian central bank recently forecasted further appreciation of the Egyptian pound. Consumer confidence is not at an all time low. Egyptian foreign reserve has grown to $28.5b--the highest since 2011.

I wonder what you gain from lies. The same you calling the $9b surge in FDI a surge from "criminal international capitalists" is the same person who'd be talking about stabilizing the naira so the same "criminal international capitalists" can bring their money to the real and portfolio sectors of the Nigerian economy.

How can you demonize something you desperately ask for?

The IMF has asked the CBN to devalue since 2014. After the initial stubbornness, the CBN eventual did a managed float. So, what kind of sick patriotism are you talking about. Nigeria will eventually float the naira fully. Taking that pill now that the fall is estimated to be less than 20% is better than waiting until another oil price war happens between Saudi Arabia and the US.

The IMF has its interest, and Nigeria should have our interest. If a free float should be a way to attract FDI and reduce pressure on our reserves, then we should take advantage of it.

When the IMF recommended SAP to Babaginda in 1987, the IMF did not ask Babangida to stealing over $12b in one year in 1991 (the gulf war windfall). Between 1987 and today Nigerian leaders have stolen over $150b. Yet you people have a way of blaming the IMF for recommending SAP, when it was our leaders that ruined the implementation.

If our leaders can't look out for Nigerian interest, why should the IMF look out for our interest?

Or do you think the IMF is actually NCF (Nigerian Charity Fund)?

Buhari claims to have released N1t directly into the economy in 2016. Did you feel it?
It took us 18 months to come out with an Economic plan... 18 months. Is that one the fault of the IMF too?
Or when Buhari was maintaining hard stance with the NDA last month that cost us of over $20b in oil revenue. Was that one the fault of the IMF too?

You have stupid leaders and an equally unserious populace and you want IMF to do everything for you. I've never seen an entitled people like Nigerians before. Everyone is supposed to queue at the opportunity to lick your ass when you keep defecating all over the place.

You have the BRICS and other nations in the G20 and OECD that used IMF to climb the ladder to stardom and in some cases ingenuously tip-toed around the IMF. Yet your ignorant self thinks it is about a we-versus-them game. US still trades heavily with China and Russia (practically sworn enemies). If we can't use the IMF to further our own agenda then yes we deserve wherever we are.

Tell your leaders to GTFO their ass, start working, stop stealing, and then taking the same proceeds to countries that call the shot in the IMF (the IMF would use our leaders stolen money as backing to give us loans in the end). Stop being the mindless simpletons the industrialized world sees us as.

It was Nigeria that ran to the IMF for loans. The IMF did not come to us.






Now that you are pushing that we should dance to IMF's music, is our country corruption-free enough to make their recommendations work (that is if we even want to follow your claim that IMF is the best bride for us right now). I maintain that IMF's record of success is so abysmal that one can only tell them to keep their advise for those unwise enough to believe them.

[quote author=prixm post=55328301][/quote]

Abeg don't quote me if you didn't read what I typed.

So, Nigeria knows we have not rid the country of corruption and so would misuse the money, yet we were asking IMF for billions of dollars? Why not we stay on our own.

My friend look for another person or organization to blame. You can blame PDP, APC, Lord Luggard. Keep IMF out of it.

I don't want to type much. If you think IMF is evil, good for you. Eventually, the FG would still borrow from them and carry out the austerity measures that are recommended. Curse, kick, and whine all you want. When the same FG siphons and misuses the borrowed money, it is you and your descendants that'd pay back the IMF. Because IMF would not bat an eyelid to make sure we pay back in cash or kind.

So keep fighting a phantom demon in IMF while you elect and cheer actual demons in Aso Rock.

If you don't want to adopt IMF recommendations, don't ask them for loan, simple.

Same way if you don't have collateral, don't ask the bank for loan, simple.

The IMF is not a charity.

-Lord

chloride6:


If the CBN does not inject dollar who will? The petrol dollars injected by the CBN is our major earner of foreign exchange.

Its like a father telling his kids, if I don't provide food you will die of hunger. If the father doesn't provide food, who will?

I understand you.

However, this intervention should be a temporary measure. Unfortunately, in the case of the CBN, any attempt to withdraw the intervention will lead to a fall in Naira value.

This is simply because our economy is consumer based.

shadeyinka:


I understand you.

However, this intervention should be a temporary measure. Unfortunately, in the case of the CBN, any attempt to withdraw the intervention will lead to a fall in Naira value.

This is simply because our economy is consumer based.

There is one solution to this issue, go and borrow.

chloride6:


There is one solution to this issue, go and borrow.

I don't think so.

The solution is to do what I call "inport substitution industrialization". This will lead to:

1. Dependence on dollars will be minimized
2. Inflation will be reduced
3. Jobs will be created
4. Stronger Naira

shadeyinka:


I don't think so.

The solution is to do what I call "inport substitution industrialization". This will lead to:

1. Dependence on dollars will be minimized
2. Inflation will be reduced
3. Jobs will be created
4. Stronger Naira

How long will that take?

Lagoon go full by then

chloride6:


How long will that take?

Lagoon go full by then

Hahaha

EMMAACHILE:

Hahaha

People are really groaning under the present economic situation.

People just need to have their old lives back.

No rail, no electricity nothing new just their old life.

chloride6:


People are really groaning under the present economic situation.

People just need to have their old lives back.

No rail, no electricity nothing new just their old life.

Thats the reality. Nigeria is drifting backwards. I get an average of 5-10 hours max of electricity per day and infrastructure like water and co are becoming a mirage. Its so sad we are in this mess when we should be talking of advancement or "change"

I was bemused by most of the posts focusing on the fired part of the story, which is actually a tiny problem.
As you said, huge sums are going to waste in recurrent expenditure.
Funny, how many of us keep insulting the IMF, when our own govt has been the culprit.
And how does anyone justify cheap dollars for medical and educational tourism- IN A RECESSION?!
Meanwhile, buhari rejected loans tied to structural reforms, and is now spending dollars like a drunk sailor, yet we still REFUSE to read the writing on the wall.
Lastly, when was the last time anyone heard the govt speak of our refineries or power supply- the two cardinal requirements of industrialization?

kennygee:
The cost of governance in Nigeria is our problem.

Private schools, especially secondary and primary schools charging over 200k is a problem.

When an SSA has his or her own branch of aides and personal assistants that government also pays in huge sums, that is a problem.

When our senators are paid like robbers when all they do is clown about and do absolutely nothing relevant, that is a problem.

chloride6:


How long will that take?

Lagoon go full by then

It should take about 10 years. But we shall begin to see results in 2 years AND the result is deep, no window dressing.

Nigeria will probably become the strongest nation in Africa in terms of wealth, GDP.

I hope our government can see this.

shadeyinka:


It should take about 10 years. But we shall begin to see results in 2 years AND the result is deep, no window dressing.

Nigeria will probably become the strongest nation in Africa in terms of wealth, GDP.

I hope our government can see this.

Did you say 2 years?

Nigerians cant wait two years abeg.

chloride6:

Did you say 2 years?

Nigerians cant wait two years abeg.

Then, our suffering continues indefinitely.

He who will build a skyscraper rather than a hut will dig a deep foundation.

Our problem is that we actually do not have any economic structure in place. Without it, every economic intervention is at best a placebo.