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TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion - Politics (4) - Nairaland

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Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by airminem(f): 6:05pm On Apr 17, 2017
ephi123:


It's not your fault. People who are being spoonfed have no clue how an economy is run. Continue typing theories online.

Pele.

hmmm
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by southpole: 6:18pm On Apr 17, 2017
omo1010:


Crude price is currently above $50 which is more than what was budgeted, yet Nigerians are not feel any positive impact. Obj ran this country with less than $30 per barrel, managed the effect of the global economic crisis without plunging Nigeria to this type of unprecedented hardship. What we have now is offshoot of bad economic decisions that are not peoples' friendly. Truth has to e told, instead of defending this gross maladministration which is neither good for PMb nor his administration, because history will not e kind to this regime

Yea truth has to be told, Obj took over when the price was far below $30 and it climbed up so it was easy for him, Obj did not experience any shock in terms price decline. When d price nose dived during this regime is like a man who was running smoothly on a flat land and suddenly sinks into a deep hole, if you expect things to be the same with that man is wrong. Let me use another analogy, assuming you are employed and your salary is N100 per month from there you give your wife N30 for feeding. N40 you pay children school fees you give N10 each to your two children for pocket money and save N10.

Then suddenly your employer without any notice reduce your salary to N30 per month and after explaining to your wife and kids, your wife still insist you most maintain same standard of leaving as before, you most give her N30 for feeding as you used to when things were fine and that your kids most be left in the same school because she doesn't want the neighbours to laugh at her. Your kids also insisted that you most give them same amount of pocket money as you used to and also save N10 as usual will that be fear to you?
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by nkemjacob2(m): 6:19pm On Apr 17, 2017
gvt has been recovering... let dem start using the money dey recover..... we re tired of typing and speculating
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by Nobody: 6:19pm On Apr 17, 2017
Atiku2019:



PMB has done well? But his cabinet members are not doing well?

Which "Kain" talk be this self? grin


PMB is a complete failure grin...


How far with the Osborne cash broda, Any news? grin


Well PMB is fighting corruption indeed grin grin
You need an honest answer right? Go and ask the NIA who kept the money and jonathan who approved the money but has gone into hiding since the day NIA linked him with the money when others indicted had since spoken. Anything else?

1 Like

Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by positivetaught: 6:22pm On Apr 17, 2017
The explanation is really nice,but this nonsense rhetoric of "if the previous administration had remained Nigeria would have collapse" should stop,the TSA itself was a creation of the last administration, Nigeria is not even better off today compared to two years ago even with saints in charge.
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by positivetaught: 6:32pm On Apr 17, 2017
southpole:


Yea truth has to be told, Obj took over when the price was far below $30 and it climbed up so it was easy for him, Obj did not experience any shock in terms price decline. When d price nose dived during this regime is like a man who was running smoothly on a flat land and suddenly sinks into a deep hole, if you expect things to be the same with that man is wrong. Let me use another analogy, assuming you are employed and your salary is N100 per month from there you give your wife N30 for feeding. N40 you pay children school fees you give N10 each to your two children for pocket money and save N10.

Then suddenly your employer without any notice reduce your salary to N30 per month and after explaining to your wife and kids, your wife still insist you most maintain same standard of leaving as before, you most give her N30 for feeding as you used to when things were fine and that your kids most be left in the same school because she doesn't want the neighbours to laugh at her. Your kids also insisted that you most give them same amount of pocket money as you used to and also save N10 as usual will that be fear to you?
yes the price of crude oil drastically dropped even before buhari took over,all the budgets prepared by this administration has always been below the crude price internationally even though they have been low, this means the country earns a little excess even with the low crude price, so why hasn't the government performed based on it's budget instead of looking for who to blame using all sort of voodoo economic theories.
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by joe54: 6:33pm On Apr 17, 2017
story for the god's. this administration is built on lies and fraud no wonder its abysmal failure on all fronts. people are starving. imagine corruption being fought by EFCC. lead by a POLICEMAN. WHO IN NIGERIA DOESN'T KNOW THAT ALL POLICEMEN ARE CORRUPT.
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by maclatunji: 6:42pm On Apr 17, 2017
odogwubiafra:
They have been always quick to link GEJ to looting, but now they can't link him to TSA. Moreover, Buhari the empty head, TSA doesn't mean saving. Savings = income - expenditure(ie part of income not consumed).

How can they call it savings when salaries have not been paid, when some contractors have not been paid and so on.

Government of deceit and incompetence.

A TSA he never implemented. Weren't people like you crying and wailing when this administration started implementing it?

Park in one place.

1 Like

Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by Willie2015: 6:43pm On Apr 17, 2017
southpole:

Those who work the work see opportunities in every happening but those who have taken complaint as hobby will never ever imagine there exist any opportunity even if it is presented to then in a lay man's language.

if prices are going higher like in food stuff it is an opportunity for you to key into the value chain and get your own share.
If foreign investors are leaving it is an opportunity for you to key in, by the way foreign investors are here primarily to make money not to build your economy. when the Chinese that are coming here for instance to export our cassava, ginger and other raw materials leave, then key in and start a small export business in the area they are leaving.

Please stop wasting a lot of your time in naira land posting complaints and frustration. Some of us only come here after making our money everyday and only if we don't have anything doing.
's

It is not as simple as this. The cost of running business in Nigeria is extremely high.
I have some buses plying some routes and I know for a fact that it is not easy to run a business. Cost of basic car parts had doubled with increasing maintenance cost. Most SMEs are out of business while many will continue to do so if this administration continue on this path.

Check the result of companies quoted on the NSE, all of them are groaning as a result of inflation pressure, reduced consumer disposable income, Naira Devaluation and High Energy cost. These are factors that also affect the Agric sector.

I cannot encourage any young entrepreneur to start business during this recession period, it is better to keep your capital in Treasury Bills,Bonds and earn 17% annual yield than lose your capital in the name of doing business.

Just my opinion
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by jude90(m): 6:50pm On Apr 17, 2017
hmmmmmm this government
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by Splashme: 6:52pm On Apr 17, 2017
Ezenwammadu:
And yet nothing is moving forward

Useless government
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by kaystick86(m): 7:09pm On Apr 17, 2017
7trillion since morning
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by thunderbabs: 7:14pm On Apr 17, 2017
7trillion naira?

That one na profit after tax abi before tax?

And, when una go start to dey pay Nigerians the dividends for the year ended? Rubbish....

You realise 7trillion, e no show for our body...hunger everywhere, inflation everywhere, 7 trillion naira my ass
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by kynbasil01: 7:14pm On Apr 17, 2017
southpole:

Wait for Government to do everything for you while you do nothing and you will die so ratchet.
this shows that what you have up there is not brain.. it's rather a mucous
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by slivertongue: 7:28pm On Apr 17, 2017
government of comedians by comedians...
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by Kabir2Mohammad(m): 7:41pm On Apr 17, 2017
[b][/b]
dre11:

“When we say we have over N5 trillion in TSA, it does not mean free
funds for spending. No! no! no! These monies belong to various
ministries, departments and agencies put in a portal in such a way
that you can view the entire balance as one.


“The movement is now over N7 trillion. But as I explained earlier,
these are not free money. People should not be thinking of why is
government borrowing to fund budget. These are budgeted monies
for MDAs for projects and developments,” he said.

1 Like

Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by southpole: 7:44pm On Apr 17, 2017
Willie2015:


It is not as simple as this. The cost of running business in Nigeria is extremely high.
I have some buses plying some routes and I know for a fact that it is not easy to run a business. Cost of basic car parts had doubled with increasing maintenance cost. Most SMEs are out of business while many will continue to do so if this administration continue on this path.

Check the result of companies quoted on the NSE, all of them are groaning as a result of inflation pressure, reduced consumer disposable income, Naira Devaluation and High Energy cost. These are factors that also affect the Agric sector.

I cannot encourage any young entrepreneur to start business during this recession period, it is better to keep your capital in Treasury Bills,Bonds and earn 17% annual yield than lose your capital in the name of doing business.

Just my opinion
If you are saying you will not advise young entrepreneurs to start any business during recessing is like you have accepted defeat and that is very very wrong. Whether you agree or not there are countless opportunities in every recession. There are a lot of people making money in this recession, what you need is the ability to be able to identify opportunities. One major problem is that many people in this country go into business without any business plan. Ask somebody why he or she is into a particular trade or business he will tell you is because he likes the business or he likes selling the product, not neccessarilry because he has identified a huge stream of customers looking for that product.. For God sake why should somebody get up and start selling shoes because he loves shoes not because he has identified tasty customers for that brand of shoes?

If you leave in a city try and locate a subburb near that city and see the lifestyle of the so called masses and owners of SMEs, the little profit they make in a day is spent on drinking beers, parties and unnecessary events.
You discourage young people from going into business and you talk about treasury bills and bonds, how long do you thing it will take for a beginner or young entrepreneur to make money that can never be over taken by inflation through treasury bills or bonds?

I have seen people with N100,000 and less rushing to buy stocks, for God sake how long will it take such people to make reasonable money?. I will only advice the middle and the lower class to buy shares only if they don't have anything to do with that money. Shares or stocks are for the rich. I had a colleaque in those days who bought Zenith bank shares worth N50,000 and after a year he was given N300 dividend and that same year I went into buying and selling just N20,000 worth of pure water and within 2 weeks I made a profit of N10,000 while my colleaque made only N300 in a year for investing N50,000 and that is what you are advising young entrepreneurs to do.

Though you encourage people not to start any business but I am telling you there are a lot of small business that can fetch a lot of money. If you are from the East where palm oil is produce in huge quantity for instance I will tell you that pure palm oil is not only a hot cake but gold highly needed in Abuja, somebody can leave the East in the morning with the product to Abuja and return the following day. There are many of these kind of businesses yet you are here discouraging people.

I think one other problem is that people don't want to start small they want to go into business today and tomorrow be in the same class with Dangote, it doesn't work like that

3 Likes

Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by odogwubiafra: 7:50pm On Apr 17, 2017
maclatunji:


A TSA he never implemented. Weren't people like you crying and wailing when this administration started implementing it?

Park in one place.

Yes l was because of his fire brigade, policy summersault approach to sensitive issues. Economic matters are purely handled by TEAM of professional economists, and not by mediocres using trial-and-error approach.
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by southpole: 7:53pm On Apr 17, 2017
kynbasil01:
this shows that what you have up there is not brain.. it's rather a mucous

And the Person that has the brain is the one that is complaining of recession, hardship and poverty. loll the brain is meant for critical thinking and I don't want to believe that your brain is that of lower animals. What I have up there according to you is not brain but all those things you are complaining about including recession poverty and the likes can never one near me.
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by khalids: 8:10pm On Apr 17, 2017
Atiku2019:



PMB has done well? But his cabinet members are not doing well?

Which "Kain" talk be this self? grin


PMB is a complete failure grin...


How far with the Osborne cash broda, Any news? grin


Well PMB is fighting corruption indeed grin grin

Bros I would have taken you seriously....but here you are advertising another useless politician..
Shaking my head for your ignorance...
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by odogwubiafra: 8:12pm On Apr 17, 2017
Daboomb:


STOP deceiving yourself!

GEJ never implemented the TSA for all the years he was President........ because he wanted to allow his "friends' to keep looting the balance of money from the MDA's.
As far as he was concerned, STEALING is not Corruption.
undecided undecided

You people are just so "comfortable with looting" that anything different, is giving you nightmares!
angry angry

Do you know that FIRS and CUSTOMS collections in banks are not delayed before remittance? Those are the two major source of revenue to the FG towards budget funding, apart from crude oil proceeds, which still indirectly forms part of either of the two. It is a serious matter when a bank delays the money to enjoy the float before remittance. In fact, FIRS was always through Paydirect, through a transit account in the bank. By transit account, the account is always in zero balance at the end of each day.

And under Buhari, Customs duty and FIRS collections are moving towards ground zero because of inactivity. That is why funding of 2016 budget is still a problem. In first quarter of 2017, FG is still lookin from where to borrow to augment 2016. No wonder they resorted to PADDING, which they still said is not corruption.

This is beyond looting, it is about having the qualities that effective and efficient leadership requires. If only under looting, inflation rate was single digit all through, while under "NO" looting, it is 17+. Then l think l will prefer the former.

So my dear Buhrist, TSA has been in partial implementation due to its sensitivity, but your hophead entered and started using common sense instead of PROVEN economic models to solve economic problems.
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by IamaNigerianGuy(m): 8:13pm On Apr 17, 2017
.
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by IamaNigerianGuy(m): 8:14pm On Apr 17, 2017
lexy2014:
so funny how do u separate a presidents performance from that of his ministers? how can a president b doung and his ministers not doing well?if they aren't doing well according 2u, what has d president done about it bearing in mind that it took him 6months 2 appoint d same people u say aren't doing well. this cabal u talked about, have u ever seen any member if d cabal?can u mention d name of at least one member of d cabal?if this administration was doing well, will u say d cabal was responsible?

This guy called 'Sarrki' is a complete menace to this forum
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by greatermax77(m): 8:33pm On Apr 17, 2017
Thank God, living wage of Nigeria workers must be increased come this may. No excuse
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by odogwubiafra: 8:49pm On Apr 17, 2017
southpole:


Yea truth has to be told, Obj took over when the price was far below $30 and it climbed up so it was easy for him, Obj did not experience any shock in terms price decline. When d price nose dived during this regime is like a man who was running smoothly on a flat land and suddenly sinks into a deep hole, if you expect things to be the same with that man is wrong. Let me use another analogy, assuming you are employed and your salary is N100 per month from there you give your wife N30 for feeding. N40 you pay children school fees you give N10 each to your two children for pocket money and save N10.

Then suddenly your employer without any notice reduce your salary to N30 per month and after explaining to your wife and kids, your wife still insist you most maintain same standard of leaving as before, you most give her N30 for feeding as you used to when things were fine and that your kids most be left in the same school because she doesn't want the neighbours to laugh at her. Your kids also insisted that you most give them same amount of pocket money as you used to and also save N10 as usual will that be fear to you?

Let me take you on some points you raised, you said that;

1) That the nosedive in price of crude oil was SUDDEN. There is a missing link between your analysis and the real situation. This fall in crude oil price was part of their campaign, when Tam David West opined that petroleum pump price would have sold N40 if Buhari was in power. So they ought to have believed and worked their modalities towards making their projection real.

2) That your wife and your children will insist on as it was in the beginning.. Yes, when it is only their expense line that were affected. Buhari could not afford nomination form, but now could afford to go on medical treatment abroad for over a month, with blood transfusion, all expenses paid in pounds. And you still believe the change begins with us and not him.
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by erico2k2(m): 8:50pm On Apr 17, 2017
LionDeLeo:


Some of them are fully aware of this but they are so frustrated that nothing works for them. Imagine, they want Bubu to change Nigeria to Paris within 2 yrs with the dwindling govt revenue. Something that could not be achieved in 6 yrs with very high govt income coupled with the depletion of Foreign Reserve.
Nahhh not 2 years rather we give him 4 years to improve our lives by just 2%, is that achievable you think??
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by Klington: 8:53pm On Apr 17, 2017
sarrki:
Pmb as a person have really done well

Most of his cabinet members and the cabals are not doing well
can you stop thinking with ur ass 4 once . Is the entire economy not in very pitiable state. So "where is the well that ur clueless pmb has done
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by southpole: 9:36pm On Apr 17, 2017
odogwubiafra:


Let me take you on some points you raised, you said that;

1) That the nosedive in price of crude oil was SUDDEN. There is a missing link between your analysis and the real situation. This fall in crude oil price was part of their campaign, when Tam David West opined that petroleum pump price would have sold N40 if Buhari was in power. So they ought to have believed and worked their modalities towards making their projection real.

2) That your wife and your children will insist on as it was in the beginning.. Yes, when it is only their expense line that were affected. Buhari could not afford nomination form, but now could afford to go on medical treatment abroad for over a month, with blood transfusion, all expenses paid in pounds. And you still believe the change begins with us and not him.


Thanks for your argument but let me take you on your points.

1 I think also there is a mix up in your statement, I want to believe that they couldn't have campaigned on crude oil but may be refined products because there is no way Nigeria can regulate the price of crude oil because it is determined by the international market. West made his prediction on the premise that the price of crude and other variables will remain as they were and of course west may be an expert in that field but certainly not an authority. But assuming that they promised to sell PMS at N40 and after taking over reality changes do you expect them to sell at that price. Again to my earlier analogy supposing that you promised to buy your wife a brand new car from money you will save next year from your salary and unfortunately your salary drops by 80% few month later will you still go ahead with that promise?

2. you stated yes that your family should insist if only it is their expense line that is affect, that is even though their expense line is over 200% your salary? Do you know why many men died leaving their families? is because many wanted to do what their salaries could not do even through magic. The family that insist on getting what they have been getting even though the financial realities changing are happy to see their daddy dead.
3 Your argument on BUHARI going out for medical treatment is very funny, you mean he should remain here and die, do you really think about the implication? Your argument is more or less a natural hatred which may not be found even among pagans. And if you are a Christian Jesus said that pray for your enemies and those who hate you and that if your enemy is hungry feed him, and is tasty give him water to drink.

Except you drop sentiments and see things as they are you may not have peace of mind and for you to say a family should insist on having what was given to them even when the financial status dropped by over 80% really speak volumes about who you are.
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by 4Play(m): 9:38pm On Apr 17, 2017
southpole:


Yea truth has to be told, Obj took over when the price was far below $30 and it climbed up so it was easy for him, Obj did not experience any shock in terms price decline. When d price nose dived during this regime is like a man who was running smoothly on a flat land and suddenly sinks into a deep hole, if you expect things to be the same with that man is wrong. Let me use another analogy, assuming you are employed and your salary is N100 per month from there you give your wife N30 for feeding. N40 you pay children school fees you give N10 each to your two children for pocket money and save N10.

Then suddenly your employer without any notice reduce your salary to N30 per month and after explaining to your wife and kids, your wife still insist you most maintain same standard of leaving as before, you most give her N30 for feeding as you used to when things were fine and that your kids most be left in the same school because she doesn't want the neighbours to laugh at her. Your kids also insisted that you most give them same amount of pocket money as you used to and also save N10 as usual will that be fear to you?

I have seen this household budget analogy deployed by "BMC" activists but it is crass, fatuous and utterly benighted. It plays on the short memory, dissonance and naivete of the average Nigerian. Here is why:

The Nigerian government's spending obligations are largely Naira denominated and dominated by recurrent expenditure (payroll expenses and interest payment on Naira denominated bonds). If the price of a barrel of crude oil falls from $100 to $50, assuming (for the sake of simplicity) that this leads to halving of government oil revenue, the impact would be moderated by the exchange rate effect. By allowing the exchange rate to fall from N160/$1 to N305/$1, the government is able to meet much of its salary/bond payments without breaking much sweat because workers and bond investors are paid in Naira.

If oil revenue previously yielded $20bn, the FG would be able to spend N3.2 trillion (at a rate of N160/$1). If oil revenue halved to $10bn, the FG would be able to spend N3 trillion (at a rate of N305/$1). The exchange rate effect acts as a strong cushion re the government's budget against the deleterious effects of an oil revenue collapse. Interestingly, when NOI was queried by the opposition in 2013 as to why she preferred to borrow in Naira rather than in foreign currency (the latter attracts lower interest rate), this point was made and we debated it in the following thread: https://www.nairaland.com/1563336/must-read-reps-50-questions/2#20372749.

So your household budget analogy is misleading. The government's revenue doesn't fall by 70% - its dollar income does fall significantly but little of the government's expenditure is dollar denominated. But the impropriety of the analogy doesn't end there. You ignore that only 60-70% of the government's revenue is oil derived. There are a range of taxes - Income tax, VAT, Corporation tax, e.t.c. - that are not derived from oil.

We also ignore the elephant in the room (this is where my reference to short memories and dissonance arises). We were told that the previous government was stealing a huge chunk of the oil revenue (have we forgotten Sanusi's $20bn allegation?). If the previous government was stealing significant proportions of the oil revenue, the mere fact of having a new and more honest government should offset some of the downside of the oil income collapse. Sanusi's claim was that oil export proceeds were not being remitted back to Nigeria. Surely, there would be some upside now that those proceeds are being remitted.

Overall, the argument citing the collapse of oil revenue as an excuse belies all we have been told about the wanton theft of the GEJ government vs the honesty/uprightness of the Buhari government. It ignores basic understanding/knowledge of how exchange rate depreciation works to protect a government whose spending is largely denominated in its local currency. It is a tedious and ignorant argument which should be read its last rites by the BMC crew and all Buhari apologists. Find another argument that doesn't insult our intelligence.

1 Like

Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by LOVEGINO(m): 9:50pm On Apr 17, 2017
AlphaStyles:
1 trillion go soon miss
lol l! Dem go blame GEJ again.
Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by LionDeLeo: 10:11pm On Apr 17, 2017
4Play:


I have seen this household budget analogy deployed by "BMC" activists but it is crass, fatuous and utterly benighted. It plays on the short memory, dissonance and naivete of the average Nigerian. Here is why:

The Nigerian government's spending obligations are largely Naira denominated and dominated by recurrent expenditure (payroll expenses and interest payment on Naira denominated bonds). If the price of a barrel of crude oil falls from $100 to $50, assuming (for the sake of simplicity) that this leads to halving of government oil revenue, the impact would be moderated by the exchange rate effect. By allowing the exchange rate to fall from N160/$1 to N305/$1, the government is able to meet much of its salary/bond payments without breaking much sweat because workers and bond investors are paid in Naira.

If oil revenue previously yielded $20bn, the FG would be able to spend N3.2 trillion (at a rate of N160/$1). If oil revenue halved to $10bn, the FG would be able to spend N3 trillion (at a rate of N305/$1). The exchange rate effect acts as a strong cushion re the government's budget against the deleterious effects of an oil revenue collapse. Interestingly, when NOI was queried by the opposition in 2013 as to why she preferred to borrow in Naira rather than in foreign currency (the latter attracts lower interest rate), this point was made and we debated it in the following thread: https://www.nairaland.com/1563336/must-read-reps-50-questions/2#20372749.

So your household budget analogy is misleading. The government's revenue doesn't fall by 70% - its dollar income does fall significantly but little of the government's expenditure is dollar denominated. But the impropriety of the analogy doesn't end there. You ignore that only 60-70% of the government's revenue is oil derived. There are a range of taxes - Income tax, VAT, Corporation tax, e.t.c. - that are not derived from oil.

We also ignore the elephant in the room (this is where my reference to short memories and dissonance arises). We were told that the previous government was stealing a huge chunk of the oil revenue (have we forgotten Sanusi's $20bn allegation?). If the previous government was stealing significant proportions of the oil revenue, the mere fact of having a new and more honest government should offset some of the downside of the oil income collapse. Sanusi's claim was that oil export proceeds were not being remitted back to Nigeria. Surely, there would be some upside now that those proceeds are being remitted.

Overall, the argument citing the collapse of oil revenue as an excuse belies all we have been told about the wanton theft of the GEJ government vs the honesty/uprightness of the Buhari government. It ignores basic understanding/knowledge of how exchange rate depreciation works to protect a government whose spending is largely denominated in its local currency. It is a tedious and ignorant argument which should be read its last rites by the BMC crew and all Buhari apologists. Find another argument that doesn't insult our intelligence.

I would have liked to respond to this comment in fragments, but I don't have the luxury of time. However, you may as well re analyse your submission using the following.

1. Official exchange rate wasn't 160, it was 197.

2. At the national level, the actual income of the state isn't measured on the basis of what the government pegged it's exchange. Any globally accepted currencies can be used as a standard. If what you say were to be the case, the government can simply print its currency in excess.

3. More than 30% of Nigerian govt expenditures is on international transactions such as debt servicing, Foreign Reserve, diplomatic missions, military trainings operations etc.

4. The price of crude oil in international market went as low as $30pb. Factor out the exploration cost. Use this graph for your calculation of govt income from inception.

While doing that, take note of the huge gap between the previous and present administration, in favour of the past administration, then, you may also explain what happened to this excess in addition to the depletion of Foreign Reserve.

Also note that the price of crude went as high as $125pb while the lowest was $90 between 2012 and 2014 and it was above $100 for more than 95% of the period.

The third picture shows the value of the the foreign reserve within the period.

Re: TSA: Nigerian Government Realises N7trillion by southpole: 10:27pm On Apr 17, 2017
4Play:


I have seen this household budget analogy deployed by "BMC" activists but it is crass, fatuous and utterly benighted. It plays on the short memory, dissonance and naivete of the average Nigerian. Here is why:

The Nigerian government's spending obligations are largely Naira denominated and dominated by recurrent expenditure (payroll expenses and interest payment on Naira denominated bonds). If the price of a barrel of crude oil falls from $100 to $50, assuming (for the sake of simplicity) that this leads to halving of government oil revenue, the impact would be moderated by the exchange rate effect. By allowing the exchange rate to fall from N160/$1 to N305/$1, the government is able to meet much of its salary/bond payments without breaking much sweat because workers and bond investors are paid in Naira.

If oil revenue previously yielded $20bn, the FG would be able to spend N3.2 trillion (at a rate of N160/$1). If oil revenue halved to $10bn, the FG would be able to spend N3 trillion (at a rate of N305/$1). The exchange rate effect acts as a strong cushion re the government's budget against the deleterious effects of an oil revenue collapse. Interestingly, when NOI was queried by the opposition in 2013 as to why she preferred to borrow in Naira rather than in foreign currency (the latter attracts lower interest rate), this point was made and we debated it in the following thread: https://www.nairaland.com/1563336/must-read-reps-50-questions/2#20372749.

So your household budget analogy is misleading. The government's revenue doesn't fall by 70% - its dollar income does fall significantly but little of the government's expenditure is dollar denominated. But the impropriety of the analogy doesn't end there. You ignore that only 60-70% of the government's revenue is oil derived. There are a range of taxes - Income tax, VAT, Corporation tax, e.t.c. - that are not derived from oil.

We also ignore the elephant in the room (this is where my reference to short memories and dissonance arises). We were told that the previous government was stealing a huge chunk of the oil revenue (have we forgotten Sanusi's $20bn allegation?). If the previous government was stealing significant proportions of the oil revenue, the mere fact of having a new and more honest government should offset some of the downside of the oil income collapse. Sanusi's claim was that oil export proceeds were not being remitted back to Nigeria. Surely, there would be some upside now that those proceeds are being remitted.

Overall, the argument citing the collapse of oil revenue as an excuse belies all we have been told about the wanton theft of the GEJ government vs the honesty/uprightness of the Buhari government. It ignores basic understanding/knowledge of how exchange rate depreciation works to protect a government whose spending is largely denominated in its local currency. It is a tedious and ignorant argument which should be read its last rites by the BMC crew and all Buhari apologists. Find another argument that doesn't insult our intelligence.

Actually you sounded like a university professor of business studies who is teaching his students how best to run a business but he has never sold N5 pure water in his life talk less of having chains of businesses.

All these years previous government, experts and the current regime have been telling us that crude oil constitute about 90% of Nigeria source of income which informed the outcry for diversification, so where did you get 60% - 70% just to support your argument? I see.

You also failed to understand that what affect the oil sector affects all other sectors since it constitute about 90% of the financial back bone.
You stated that federal govt expenses are naira denominated and you are sighting payroll, is it only fed govt that spend money in this country? what of the private sector including transportation that almost everything is imported? Why did you centered your argument on only fed govt? why can't you widen you mind to see the bigger picture? do you know how much was spent before now to import only rice into this country? do you know how much state govt are spending to import agric machineries? Your argument is so narrow that your neglected the entire private sector that import far more than the fed govt such as the aviation industry, constructions firms, the manufacturing sector that import almost all of their hardwares sourcing dollars from the govt.
Widen your mind include all other sectors without restricting yourself to govt pay roll, how much is govt even spending on salaries that warrant you to use that as an example? For your information govt employed from fed to local may not be up to 3 million out of about 170 million so please widen your mind and reproduce your argument.
And to assist you, note that the private sector is far larger and import far larger that govt... The amount used in importing food into this country by companies and individuals every day is in billions of dollars and govt is the main source of the dollar.Don't forget the manufacturing sector medical field, the aviation industry and many others.
The exchange rate your are stressing in your argument does not favour our import economy.

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