sarrki:
Pmb as a person have really done well

Most of his cabinet members and the cabals are not doing well

LionDeLeo:


I'm too busy to respond to this comment in fragment, but you can as well re analyse your submission using the following.

1. Official exchange rate wasn't 160, it was 197.
2. At the national level, the actual income of the state isn't measured on the basis of what the government pegged it's exchange. It is on the bases of any globally accepted currencies. If what you say we're to be the case, the government can simply print it's currency in excess.
3. More than 30% of Nigerian govt expenditures is on international transactions such as debt servicing, Foreign Reserve, diplomatic systems, military operations etc

4. The price of crude oil in international market went as low as $30pb. Factor out the exploration cost. Use this graph for your calculation of govt income from inception.

4Play:


1. Having an official exchange rate is economic illiteracy and represents the government short-changing itself. I used the official rate in my rebuttal but the market rate of N420/$1 makes my case with greater force. The government, in its adherence to a debunked model of economics, decided to over-value the currency at a fixed rate and effectively deprived itself of spending resources to meet its domestic obligations. That's not an argument in the government's defence but it's an emphatic exemplar of the government's utter incompetence.

2. This is a vacuous postulation. Irrespective of the original denomination of the government's income, what matters most is the denomination of the government's obligations. Yes, there are constraints to quantitative easing but this is academic in this context as the exchange rate depreciation offset most of the problem. It helps that Nigeria's government spending is small as a percentage of the economy ab initio.

3. You are plucking numbers out of the air. For instance re debt-servicing, total FG foreign debt was $9.5bn when GEJ left power with yields of about 5-7% (an upper range of $665m per year). Foreign reserve is not an FG "expense" at all (reserves are accumulated/depleted as part of monetary operations but has no bearing on the FG's fiscal position). The FG's capital expenditure on military operations are abysmal and referring to diplomatic expenses is scraping the bottom of the barrel stuff.

4. The $30 p/b excuse again! This government has been in power for almost 2 years and oil prices made a brief excursion to that price range and quickly bounced up. Oil prices have spent far longer in the $50 range in the GEJ era (its current range) than it did in the $30 range in the Buhari era. Indeed, oil prices are today roughly where they were when the present government was making fantastic promises of free healthcare for all. Contrary to your friend's analogous 70% plunge in government revenue (implied to have happened during the Buhari era), oil prices are close to where they were in Q1 2015 and when Buhari took over power. See image below.

My point isn't that the fall in oil revenue has no adverse impact on the government's fiscal health but that the melodramatic claim of a 70% plunge in revenue which the household analogy made by your friend evokes is preposterous. Yes, there has been some adverse impact (at the very least, via the inflation channel and the general health of the economy) but this need not have been and is not as dramatically bad for the FG's budget as some of the Buhari apologists suggest.

Again, and this keeps being sidestepped, the supposed uprightness of the Buhari government in accounting for oil revenue (in sharp contrast to the uber-dishonesty of the GEJ government) seems to be ignored as a factor. Surely, if the new government is more competent and honest, this should to a great degree offset some of the adverse impact of the oil revenue collapse?

LOVEGINO:
lol l! Dem go blame GEJ again.

southpole:

All these years previous government, experts and the current regime have been telling us that crude oil constitute about 90% of Nigeria source of income which informed the outcry for diversification, so where did you get 60% - 70% just to support your argument? I see.

In 2013, oil revenue actual receipts for the federal government totaled N1.99trillion, as against N2.35trillion projected in that year’s budget, despite oil prices staying above average $100 per barrel against the $79 per barrel benchmark.
Non-oil revenue, including independent revenue form government agencies, was actually N1.07billion in 2013, as against N1.48trillion proposed in the budget for 2013.

You also failed to understand that what affect the oil sector affects all other sectors since it constitute about 90% of the financial back bone.
You stated that federal govt expenses are naira denominated and you are sighting payroll, is it only fed govt that spend money in this country? what of the private sector including transportation that almost everything is imported? Why did you centered your argument on only fed govt? why can't you widen you mind to see the bigger picture? do you know how much was spent before now to import only rice into this country? do you know how much state govt are spending to import agric machineries? Your argument is so narrow that your neglected the entire private sector that import far more than the fed govt such as the aviation industry, constructions firms, the manufacturing sector that import almost all of their hardwares sourcing dollars from the govt.
Widen your mind include all other sectors without restricting yourself to govt pay roll, how much is govt even spending on salaries that warrant you to use that as an example? For your information govt employed from fed to local may not be up to 3 million out of about 170 million so please widen your mind and reproduce your argument.
And to assist you, note that the private sector is far larger and import far larger that govt... The amount used in importing food into this country by companies and individuals every day is in billions of dollars and govt is the main source of the dollar.Don't forget the manufacturing sector medical field, the aviation industry and many others.
The exchange rate your are stressing in your argument does not favour our import economy.

AheadMarket:
Ignorant government. They don't realise that having such money (in Naira), concentrated at a place, will only encourage inflation.
Azzzholes
Bunch if Buhari "think-alikes"

LionDeLeo:


As I have stated earlier, time is not by my side, I'm too busy for now. I have to complete a task b4 daybreak and as soon as I'm done, I will create time to respond to every detail of this submission.

But a quick one, the exchange rate issue, don't use parallel market value in one administration and official value in the other because even the 197 was only the official value in the previous administration.

But check the post you quoted again, you didn't quote it completely.

For now, bye.

4Play:


1. Having an .............

3. You are plucking numbers out of the air. For instance re debt-servicing, total FG foreign debt was $9.5bn when GEJ left power with yields of about 5-7% (an upper range of $665m per year). Foreign reserve is not an FG "expense" at all (reserves are accumulated/depleted as part of monetary operations but has no bearing on the FG's fiscal position). The FG's capital expenditure on military operations are abysmal and referring to diplomatic expenses is scraping the bottom of the barrel stuff.

4. The $30 p/b excuse again! This government has been in power for almost 2 years and oil prices made a brief excursion to that price range and quickly bounced up. Oil prices have spent far longer in the $50 range in the GEJ era (its current range) than it did in the $30 range in the Buhari era. Indeed, oil prices are today roughly where they were when the present government was making fantastic promises of free healthcare for all. Contrary to your friend's analogous 70% plunge in government revenue (implied to have happened during the Buhari era), oil prices are close to where they were in Q1 2015 and when Buhari took over power. See image below.

My point isn't that the fall in oil revenue has no adverse impact on the government's fiscal health[b] but that the melodramatic claim of a 70% plunge in revenue which the household analogy made by your friend evokes is preposterous[/b]. Yes, there has been some adverse impact (at the very least, via the inflation channel and the general health of the economy) but this need not have been and is not as dramatically bad for the FG's budget as some of the Buhari apologists suggest.

Again, and this keeps being sidestepped, the supposed uprightness of the Buhari government in accounting for oil revenue (in sharp contrast to the uber-dishonesty of the GEJ government) seems to be ignored as a factor. Surely, if the new government is more competent and honest, this should to a great degree offset some of the adverse impact of the oil revenue collapse?

Daboomb:


I can only laugh when people like you try to play smart with "statistics and figures"!
Infact, l dont know where to start picking gaping holes in this your post that is as irrational and as outlandish as it is!

YOU LIED on so many things!
For example, l have reproduced a chart of Brent Crude for you below, to see the Price of Crude when GEJ became President (2009), when he was booted out (early 2015) and as of today (2017)

Looking at that chart, we can see that your assertion, and l quote: "Oil prices have spent far longer in the $50 range in the GEJ era (its current range) than it did in the $30 range in the Buhari era" (End of Quote)..........

IS PATENTLY FALSE and just thrown-in to deceive unsuspecting readers!

That Chart shows that AT NO TIME UNDER GEJ GOVT, DID BRENT CRUDE PRICE COME AS LOW AS $50........... NOT FOR THE WHOLE SIX YEARS THAT BUFFOON WAS PRESIDENT!

Wednesday 7 January 2015 14.33 EST Last modified on Wednesday 7 January 2015 19.08 EST

Brent crude dipped below the $50 a barrel mark on Wednesday for the first time since the great recession in 2009.

Daboomb:



What have you done with your own life, with that your almost empty shop at Orile-Iganmu?

You need to see this ignorant "failure" in real life, to understand why people like him abuse the President.
All he does is sell fake products.

If not that l want to adhere to NL rules, l for post your picture and that of your Shop here, for all to see.... but dont push it.
Nonsense, under-grown Boy

dre11:








http://dailypost.ng/2017/04/17/tsa-nigerian-government-realises-n7trillion/

sarrki:
Pmb as a person have really done well

Most of his cabinet members and the cabals are not doing well

Ezenwammadu:
And yet nothing is moving forward

Useless government

Atiku2019:



PMB has done well? But his cabinet members are not doing well?

Which "Kain" talk be this self?


PMB is a complete failure ...


How far with the Osborne cash broda, Any news?


Well PMB is fighting corruption indeed

ijustdey:








why didn't the previous government collapse at least TSA wasn't in use as at those times

ijustdey:








why didn't the previous government collapse at least TSA wasn't in use as at those times

AheadMarket:

I have been trying to understand what you wrote and your direction. They have eluded me.
It obviously for kiddies. I'm just gonna give it to my little nephew to analyse.
Thanks

4Play:
The passion is inversely related to the amount of knowledge Daboomb actually has. A rather gratuitous exhibition of rank idiocy complete with coloured post!




https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/07/oil-price-brent-crude-falls-below-50-barrel

southpole:

If you are saying you will not advise young entrepreneurs to start any business during recessing is like you have accepted defeat and that is very very wrong. Whether you agree or not there are countless opportunities in every recession. There are a lot of people making money in this recession, what you need is the ability to be able to identify opportunities. One major problem is that many people in this country go into business without any business plan. Ask somebody why he or she is into a particular trade or business he will tell you is because he likes the business or he likes selling the product, not neccessarilry because he has identified a huge stream of customers looking for that product.. For God sake why should somebody get up and start selling shoes because he loves shoes not because he has identified tasty customers for that brand of shoes?

If you leave in a city try and locate a subburb near that city and see the lifestyle of the so called masses and owners of SMEs, the little profit they make in a day is spent on drinking beers, parties and unnecessary events.
You discourage young people from going into business and you talk about treasury bills and bonds, how long do you thing it will take for a beginner or young entrepreneur to make money that can never be over taken by inflation through treasury bills or bonds?

I have seen people with N100,000 and less rushing to buy stocks, for God sake how long will it take such people to make reasonable money?. I will only advice the middle and the lower class to buy shares only if they don't have anything to do with that money. Shares or stocks are for the rich. I had a colleaque in those days who bought Zenith bank shares worth N50,000 and after a year he was given N300 dividend and that same year I went into buying and selling just N20,000 worth of pure water and within 2 weeks I made a profit of N10,000 while my colleaque made only N300 in a year for investing N50,000 and that is what you are advising young entrepreneurs to do.

Though you encourage people not to start any business but I am telling you there are a lot of small business that can fetch a lot of money. If you are from the East where palm oil is produce in huge quantity for instance I will tell you that pure palm oil is not only a hot cake but gold highly needed in Abuja, somebody can leave the East in the morning with the product to Abuja and return the following day. There are many of these kind of businesses yet you are here discouraging people.

I think one other problem is that people don't want to start small they want to go into business today and tomorrow be in the same class with Dangote, it doesn't work like that

Willie2015:


These are general statements and you need to run a business practically to understand my position.

Cost of tyres for cars jumped from =N=17,000 to =N=38,000.00, cost of battery jumped from =N13,000.00 to =N24,000.00. Other motor vehicles parts and maintenance cost have doubled during this recession and yet without corresponding increase in transportation fees by passengers.

You still have to contend with police, frsc fines, other park fees,miscellaneous costs and theft by drivers while this administration also make things worse by increasing fuel cost to =N=145/litre. At the end of the month, your revenue hardly covers your running expenses. This business will have failed if I don't have enough shock absorber from other sources.

I am equally surprised on your statement that stocks are for the rich. Give me that =N=100,000.00 for a year, I will double it within a year or less just in the comfort of my house with my mobile phone. TBill & Bonds gives good interest without any risk to your capital.

Why do you think Banks stop giving loans to SMEs, their chance of survival is too slim and more difficult in this recession period.

Palm Oil may be a hot cake in Abuja but you need to understand the dose of reality that business is not just as simple as you have just described it. You will have to deal with,

- High Fuel/Transport cost from East to Abuja
- Different fines by different security outfits on the roads
- Presence of cabal in Abuja market that you dont even have control over and yet dictate price of your products
-Inability to pass all these increasing cost to consumers because of low disposable income and on the longrun, you are even battling to even recover your capital.

In summary, its not about defeat, its about giving your business the best shot of survival with your scarce resources. This is the reason you see some coys in Nigeria moving their production base to a conducive environment.

southpole:


Actually I am very much disappointed in your argument and reasoning.

Now hear you.

You started by listing high cost of items you need to start a business including tyres, then you stated that you can double N100' 000 in one year with a handset in the comfort of your room, what a contradiction? So it means that not all businesses need those costly items to start with. So instead of discouraging young entrepreneurs why not teach them how to start a business that can turn N100,000 into N200,000 in the comfort of their rooms using a handset which almost all of them already have?. By your claim every person with a handset already has what it takes to start a businesses that will turn N100,000 into N200'000 in one year, and those with N200, 000 will have N400,000 in one year and they dont need N34,000 to buy tyres, they dont need N24,000 to buy car battery , they dont need to contend with police, frsc and other security agents on the roads and upon that they dont need to buy fuel for N145 per liter to run their businesses so why are you discouraging them?

My friend you have what it takes to support the new change. If you can organise and train just 10,000 youth in a year in this your business and each of them train another 10,000 in one or 2 years and the chain continuous it will provide jobs for millions of people. By the way money is in technology driven businesses.

Not every business need those high cost items to start with as you rightly confirm with your 100,000 naira business. When you are ready to start the training let me know so that I can sponsor some people and pay what ever fees you will charge so as to contribute to the change.
LET GET TO WORK AND STOP COMPLAINING

Willie2015:


Keep your disappointment to yourself and read my comments carefully.

My argument is still simple, it is not advisable to start a business in a recession period. The bottom line is that it will collapse like any other business in this harsh environment. I am not trying to discourage any young entrepreneur, I am only giving folks a dose of reality.

Preservation of capital is of utmost important in this period.

Dont twist my comments.
You clearly stated that stocks are for the rich and also mentioned example of your friends that made =N=300 dividend from Zenith Stock. My comments is to change your mindset that stock trading is not only for the Rich, poor folks can also make use of amount like =N=100k to trade.

Pls dont go about smooth talking pple into wasting their scarce resources in the name of starting one biz in this recession. The simple truth is that business are likely to survive when the economy is not in recession and I will have been on ground zero if I started my biz during this recession.

My friend It is advisable to start a business in a recession if after the feasibility study the indicators are showing green, so it depends on the out come of the feasibility study. Your argument sound so theoretical may be that is what you learned from a school professor who does not even have a business. Drop those school theories some of them are very wrong. You have said it yourself that you can start a business now with just 100'000 naira and in a year you will have N200,000 so why are you saying is not advisable to start a business in a recession? may be you have to go back and really understand the meaning of business. In a recession when value of houses are going down if you can become an agent linking rich people to buy these cheap houses and get your commission which may be running into millions like in Maitama, Asokoro and other choice areas in Abuja is that not okay?

Now why I said buying shares is not for the poor and will never advise a poor person to buy shares. In the same year that my colleaque bought Zenith shares worth N50'000 and got N300 as dividend, that same year Jim Ovia's dividend in the same year and bank was about N250, 000, 000 (250 million naira) while the dividend given to my colleaque was consumed by inflation before it s arrival Ovia' s case was different.

The poor who bought bank shares in 2007 that were sold above N50 and some even N60 per share what profit have they made today? knowing that since that year banks' shares went down and are yet to go up

The poor who had put in his N50,000 into pure water business since then most have made a lot of money far more than your poor people holding bank shares if they made money at all.

This think is not about those false theories and principles you learn in school is about critical analysis and common sense.

That is why you see those coming out with first class in business administration are not doing well in businesses if they ever have businesses at all, that is why those with first class in finance never make up the list of the most richest people.

You have read books written by University professors or those who have not done it, it is now time you read books written by those who have done it you will learn quite a different think.

There was this professor when we were in school called professor Eskotoyo, he was a professor of economic theories and when he speaks then you will think he can take a dwindling economy and turn it to world first economy in less than a year but this prof continued to live in poverty even to maintain his only one car his state government had to give him financial aid. Some of these things we learn in school are not applicable in the real world if you doubt me tell me any business professor in the whole world that can compete favorably with people like bill gate, dangote, and their likes.

I know people like you will prefer to learn under a university professor but I will prefer to learn under dangote, bill gate and their likes if given the opportunity.
Even if it is not advisable to start a business in a recession I will rather prefer to hear it from the likes of dangote, otedola and others who have done it but certainly not from a university professor or you because you don't sound like one who have done it as your argument is guided by fear not scientific or empirical data.