It is no longer news that Buhari made a great mistake in arresting Nnamdi Kanu, but this fatal mistake that opened a Pandora's box has continued to push Nigeria to the precipice. For the very first time since the end of the civil war, the prospects of Nigeria breaking up is no longer viewed as far-fetched, rather it is now seen as a probable likelihood as palpable anxiety pervades the whole land. What many people do not know or fail to acknowledge is that Nigeria is at a state of war albeit of a different unconventional type. THERE IS A VERY VICIOUS PSYCHOLOGICAL WAR OF ATTRITION GOING ON IN THE CYBERSPACE BETWEEN PRO BIAFRANS AND ANTI BIAFRANS, while in conventional battles, arsenals like bombs, mortar, shell, artillery, rockets, guns and bullets are freely used by the opposing forces, the cyber war between Biafra and Nigeria is being fought with facts, fictions, propaganda, mischief, fallacies etc with each side of the divide desperately trying to subdue the other. The battle line is mainly between Igbos, majority of whom want Biafra on one side against Yorubas and Hausas on the other side who want the status quo to remain, and in-between these two groups lies the Niger delta that is now the battle ground. Pundits and political scientists have predicted various outcomes or countries that will emerge from the ashes of Nigeria. Some said Nigeria will be divided based on the North-south divide, others said it will be based on the religious divide while others said the subsisting six regions will emerge as the new countries, but while not disregarding these postulations, there are some factors which have not really been taking into consideration and that is the fact that Niger Delta is a heterogeneous region inhabited by disparate ethnic groups that are at daggers drawn with each other!
After I did some research, below is my findings on how the result of the referendum is going to be.

IGBOS; ironically, the Igbo ethnic group hitherto believed in one Nigeria more than any other ethnic group in Nigeria. Even now, the Igbos will still have wanted an indivisible Nigeria if the country is really a nation in the true sense of it. These people did put their money where their mouth is by investing across the whole country indiscriminately, from Kafanchan to Sarki, from Ogoja to Potiskum, and from Abuja to Lagos they invested billions of naira, but they realized with shock and consternation that instead of being appreciated, they were vilified and envied. They were threatened in Lagos by a traditional ruler and now they are being threatened in the North. Every government scheme appeared skewed against them like 5 states when others have 6 and 7, extremely high cut off for admission into federal schools like unity schools and Federal universities, allocations, appointments etc. When GEJ came into power and tried to give them a sense of belonging by balancing some appointments, other Nigerians became angry and forced him out and Buhari arrived, and did not even hide his disdain for these same people. The Igbos have finally discovered at great pains that their future in Nigeria is very bleak. The South East Igbos are going to unanimously vote for Biafra by at-least 90%.

IJAWS; When Ojukwu declared Biafra in 1967, Gowon immediately created 12 states and systematically gave the Niger delta minorities the impression that their interest will be best served in Nigeria, and that Ojukwu/Igbos were after their oil and would dominate them in Biafra. This propaganda of pitching the minorities against the Igbos became successful and helped Nigeria in defeating Biafra through the infamous blockade. But when the war ended, the same atrocities Nigeria accused Biafra of having towards the minorities were meted out to them so viciously that while their environment were polluted, Abuja, Lagos and other places were being massively developed. Their oil wells owned by northern oligarchs. Finally, by sheer providence, their son Goodluck Jonathan became president and for the first time, a sitting president was humiliated in several ways and forms, until he was disgraced out of office. Ironically, the same Igbos that were accused of being their enemy remained the only group that stood with him till the end! The Ijaws have discovered that Nigeria sold them a dummy in 1967 and they are most likely going to vote for separation, but not for Biafra anyway, they will want to have a Niger-Delta republic by at least 70%. If the Niger-Delta republic is possible to have is story for another day.

ITSHEKIRI; this beleaguered ethnic minority has been at loggerheads with numerically stronger neighbors like the Ijaws and the Uhrobos. Their ancestral lands in Warri is being claimed by these people and when they protested, it led to a protracted crises that resulted in thousands of deaths. Just like the other minorities, the Itshekiris have been shortchanged by Nigeria, but they rather see their territorial neighbors as a bigger threat than Nigeria. So, they are most likely not going to support any idea of Biafra or Niger-delta republic where they would be at the mercy of the Ijaws. They would either vote to remain in Nigeria or to join the Yorubas in Odua for protection. Verdict; too close to call in terms of percentage.

EFIK/IBIBIO; the people of Akwa/Cross have enjoyed a cordial relationship with the Igbos that spanned for ages, long before the colonialists came to Nigeria. They have mutually intelligible culture, cuisine, physique and geography. Margaret Ekpo, the foremost Efik politician was more at home with the Igbos in Aba (were she represented the province in the house of Chiefs) than even in her place. Even till today, a lot of people from Akwa Ibom has made Aba their home for ages. During the war, they were the most reliable allies of the Igbos more than the other minorities, Okokon Ndem was the chief propagandist of Biafra, also was Mathew Mbu and Ojukwus second in command, Phillip Effiong. These people were also sold the dummy of Igbo domination and wickedness over the years but events in Nigeria have suggested that they are likely to go with Biafra knowing that they have all to gain with the developers that will need their deep sea ports for external trade which would be a win-win for both parties. Verdict 65% of them are likely to vote in support of Biafra.

IKWERRE; unknown to many people, Port Harcourt will be the deciding factor on how the referendum will go, and the Ikwerres are at a vantage position to dictate that. The impression being peddled about is that Ikwerres hate the other Igbos and would never have anything to do with them. Well whether this is fact or fallacy is not the bone of contention here, the Ikwerres are unarguably the most populous tribe in Rivers state today. They have used their numbers to dictate who rules both the city of P.Harcourt and Rivers state in general, but it has not always been like this, in fact, in the old Rivers state comprising both present Rivers and Bayelsa states, the Ijaws were the dominant group and equally controlled everything to the chagrin of the Ikwerres until Bayelsa was created. The Ikwerres will never want to be in any arrangement that would bring back Ijaw dominance, so they would either vote to join Biafra or remain with the status quo, either way, Niger delta republic becomes null and void because without P.Harcourt, Niger delta republic will not make sense! Verdict; 60% will vote to join Biafra.

URHOBO; these people are a dominant player in Delta politics, although they cant be said to be contented with the way things are in Nigeria but they are likely to champion the call for resource control or true federalism as is the new fad (regardless of whether it is possible or not) than to vote for break up. The two options of either Biafra or Niger delta republic will not appeal to them because both of them will give the Ijaws a huge advantage over them, and their stake in Warri and even Delta politics would be hugely curtailed because affinity between the Aniomas and their kith and kin in Igbo mainland will certainly increase their stake in local politics. Verdict; they will vote to remain in Nigeria by about 60%.

OGONI; if there is any group that is thoroughly fed up with Nigeria aside the Igbos, then that group is Ogoni. Their region is today one of the worlds most polluted environment. Shell exploited them and their resources in cahoot with the Nigerian government and when their foremost son, Ken Sarowiwa and a few others protested, the government of Sani Abacha roundly picked them up and hanged them for daring to question the powers that be! The Ogonis would have loved to have their own country but since they are too small to achieve that, they are likely to align with the Ikwerres in voting for break up. Verdict; 80% will vote for Biafra.

ANIOMA; The insincerity of most Nigerians can be seen on their attitude towards the Igbos, now it is on record that the January 1966 coup had a national spread, yet it was termed an Igbo coup. Furthermore, even the Igbos that formed part of the coup plotters were mainly from Delta state, and when the repercussions came, it was all Igbos (including those in the East, West and South) that bared the brunt but due to oil politics they now want everyone to accept that Igboland starts and ends in the South East! Although the Anioma people or Delta Igbos as they are called may have varying opinion on where they stand on the Biafra issue, but what still remains constant is the fact that wherever Asaba goes, the rest will follow suit, and it is no longer news that Asaba is unanimously in support of Biafra. Verdict; 70% will vote for Biafra.

BINIS/EDO; Geographically, culturally and even physically, the people of these area are more at home with the Yorubas than with the Niger delta. There is no contest here, though they would have loved to have something like the Mid West/Benin republic that will comprise both Delta and Edo states but since this will not be possible, these people will vote unanimously for the status quo, that is to remain in Nigeria or at worst a Republic of Southern Nigeria. Verdict; 80% will vote to remain in Nigeria.

ASA/NDOKI/ETCHE/EGBEMA; These people as found around the borders of Abia, Imo and Rivers states will most likely vote in support of Biafra. Verdict; 70% will vote in favor of Biafra.

These postulations are my personal opinion based on research and historical evidence, if you feel they are not the true situation in your area/region please you are free to counter them with facts.

Regards,

BiafraIShere.

blablablablablabla....

bantudra:
blablablablablabla....

Before you start bleating like a g--t, let me conclude!

BiafraIShere:
Before you start bleating like a g--t, let me conclude!

conclude na....

bantudra:


conclude na....

Sure, I'm on it.

I was quite shocked to watch on youtube a major Kenyan tv channel dicussing Biafra and the break up of Nigeria.

attackgat:
I was quite shocked to watch on youtube a major Kenyan tv channel dicussing Biafra and the break up of Nigeria.

You shouldn't be surprised bro, the fact is that if Wikileaks would make available classified Intel of documents in white house, 10 downing street, the Kremlin, UN, AU and other powerful bodies, you will be shocked to discover how much is being discussed about Nigeria and Biafra.

BiafraIShere:

Sure, I'm on it.

okay...

BiafraIShere:


You shouldn't be surprised bro, the fact is that if Wikileaks would make available classified Intel of documents in white house, 10 downing street, the Kremlin, UN, AU and other powerful bodies, you will be shocked to discover how much is being discussed about Nigeria and Biafra.

kenyans are not important in africa....they are just a adventure resort for whites....

bantudra:


kenyans are not important in africa....they are just a adventure resort for whites....

Whether Kenya is just a safari country or not is not the point, the issue is that several countries are talking about the break up of Nigeria. The other day I was watching a popular Ghana television network Joy TV and they were talking about Biafra.

BiafraIShere:
Whether Kenya is just a safari country or not is not the point, the issue is that several countries are talking about the break up of Nigeria. The other day I was watching a popular Ghana television network Joy TV and they were talking about Biafra.

you are funny...

am still waiting for your conclude...

Afam4eva, Tonyebarcanista, Amarabae and many other pundits should make their contributions, Nigeria is on the threshold of history and we all need to make our obsersations.

We need opinions of people from the South East and South South, impersonators and the "we niger deltans" ;Dshould keep off please