[size=14pt]Could Nigeria be the next Pakistan?[/size]

If we then accept that the US' main concern in Africa is counterterrorism, but that other strategic and energetic considerations play also an important role, then we must note how, slowly but surely, Nigeria appears to have placed itself at the centre of numerous US concerns, and thus has gained an extreordinry importance for US foreign policy. There is no need to repeat here how important Nigeria is for the stability of West Africa, and its influence on the whole of the continent, nor its strategic value for the US energy requirement, with 10% of US oil imports coming from this country. For the past few years, oil extraction however, has been by the instability of the Niger Delta. During her visit to Nigeria last August, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was asked what the US government intended to do to help the Nigerian government establish stability and security in the Niger Delta. Her answer was the "(Nigerian) defense minister, had some very specific suggestions, which we think are very promising, to try to bring peace and stability to the Niger Delta. We will be following up on those, we will through our joint efforts, determine what Nigeria would want from us for help". In fact, some of AFRICOM's actions to secure maritime security, have not been limited to the Horn and Somali pirates. Thus, the Africa Partnership Station, launched in November 2007, has been carrying out "a rolling 5-6 month tour of the Gulf of Guinea by warships with about 400 crew", to prevent both pirate attacks and oil bunkering (AC 53,3). To these activities, ones needs to add the growing concern with drug smuggling accross West Africa and the fact that the security situation in the Gulf appears to be worsening.

If last summer the US' Secretary of State could be hinting at a possible collaboration between Nigeria and the US to deal with these matters of strategic concern, then this need for close co-operation is more than likely to have increased following the failed Christmas Day bombing of an airplane in Detroir by the Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. Furthermore, this whole episode took place among a serious leadership crisis - or rather power-vacuum - in Nigeria which still continues given President Yar'Adua's continued absence form the country for over two months (although it may be coming to an end as Nigeria's National Assembly has just passed a motion demanding Yar'Adua to hand over power to his deputy) . Initially the bomb plot, and no doubt the lack of leadership from Nigeria, moved the US to list the country on the terror watch-list - although, according to some, there are signs that the country will be de-listed.

This growing concern has even led an "intelligence oficial in AFRICOM" to affirm "that Northern Nigeria could become like Western Pakistan" (AC 53,3), which in my mind leads to the follow-up question: Could Nigeria be the next Pakistan? I am totally ignorant about the specifics of US foreign policy decision-making or about the details of US-Nigeria collaboration, but given the growing strategic weight of Nigeria on both the energetic and counterterrorism fields, could this country - like Pakistan - become a (borrowing a fashionable economic term): a country "too-big-to-fail", which will require closer attention, and intervention from the US?

I find this an extremely interesting question, and I would welcome more informed comments and feedback of whether this possibility is feasible, or whether I am way off the mark, and the US has more than enough commitments in the Horn and the Sahel?


http://onafrica.maneno.org/eng/articles/zix1265727758/

Turai might be drawing that day of US intervention nearer. . .
Jonathan is their man.

Mr Pakistan, if you dont like white people why dont you go back home.  Beaf.


The USA is not against Nigeria  for we are removing the Yorubas, edo, delta and bayelsa state into Benin republic or forming a new country. The USA is not against it. As long as it is for peaceful purpose. Quote me on this.

As long as we peacefully work out an agreement to remove the yorubas, edo, delta and bayelsa , an not civil war, the USA is not against us.

The USA govt does not want to see another darfus in Nigeria.

becomricch:

The USA govt does not want to see another darfus in Nigeria.

how sure are you?

becomricch:

Mr Pakistan, if you dont like white people why dont you go back home.  Beaf.

The USA is not against Nigeria  for we are removing the Yorubas, edo, delta and bayelsa state into Benin republic or forming a new country. The USA is not against it. As long as it is for peaceful purpose. Quote me on this.

As long as we peacefully work out an agreement to remove the yorubas, edo, delta and bayelsa , an not civil war, the USA is not against us.

My friend Pakistani's are not white people and I never said the USA is against us. The fact is that they have 20,000 troops on standby for any contingency in Nigeria to "secure the oil". They will never allow the oil producing areas be enveloped in chaos, with oil areas secured, they can very easily project across Nigeria, because we have nothing else. The country is too big to fail, the effects on the rest of Africa will be like a tsunami. 1 + 1 = 2.

Maybe you can use yourself better by producing maps of Africom positions.