Oh brother!!

@kobojunkie
the government is actually already subsidizing electricity now, cos what the consumers are paying isn't up to the amount it costs to produce said electricity(forget about whether it is constant or not). . .my point is that for private investors to come into the NESI(naija electricity supply industry) the price'll have to be increased 300+%, the present subsidy is enough of a burden already, the government cannot, i repeat, CANNOT foot the bill. . .

i'm not in this for bragging rights, the nigerian power sector is something i plan to devote my life to.

Thats how things should be done each state doing its own thing. The central government has borne the responsibilities of the states far too long [which is wrong] Let the state governors justify their being in power. Next it will be every state seeking it's own revenue.

netotse:

@kobojunkie
the government is actually already subsidizing electricity now, cos what the consumers are paying isn't up to the amount it costs to produce said electricity(forget about whether it is constant or not). . .my point is that for private investors to come into the NESI(naija electricity supply industry) the price'll have to be increased 300+%, the present subsidy is enough of a burden already, the government cannot, i repeat, CANNOT foot the bill. . .

I suspected the Government was already subsiding the cost because when someone told me she only pays about $10 for 24/7 electricity, I immediately wondered how much of the cost government was already handling considering power is NOT CHEAP.
I am glad you at least admit that Private sector handling power will likely cause cost increases of 300% or more. However, when it comes to matters in Nigeria, I don’t believe miracles happen the way you assume it will. Yes,

Government is likely burdened  at this time with the cost of subsidies as you claim --- I mean there are the fuel subsidies, electricity subsidies, probably telecom (will have to research that) to be considered. , but I do not believe that the funds generated from businesses will be enough to cover all of the Nigerian population. That is why I am of the mind that Government, while thinking up a solution, only needs to consider potential costs and how it can better mitigate the situation in the future.

I mean sure, if the end the cost of electricity to businesses is lower than current cost of companies fueling their generators each day, maybe we can look at that working out, but as  we know of quite a couple of companies that have had to leave Nigeria as a result of high cost of running business on generators. So, I am still for Government having some serious plans in place to help the poor because, in my opinion, electricity to vital to helping lift people out of poverty in the developing/under developed world.


Remember this comment from another thread ?

selingel:

When you hear billions being mentioned, you wished they could be translated into modern infrastructure, employment and the good and betterment of us all.

Kobojunkie:

I suspected the Government was already subsiding the cost because when someone told me she only pays about $10 for 24/7 electricity, I immediately wondered how much of the cost government was already handling considering power is NOT CHEAP.
I am glad you at least admit that Private sector handling power will likely cause cost increases of 300% or more. However, when it comes to matters in Nigeria, I don’t believe miracles happen the way you assume it will. Yes,

Government is likely burdened  at this time with the cost of subsidies as you claim --- I mean there are the fuel subsidies, electricity subsidies, probably telecom (will have to research that) to be considered. , but I do not believe that the funds generated from businesses will be enough to cover all of the Nigerian population. That is why I am of the mind that Government, while thinking up a solution, only needs to consider potential costs and how it can better mitigate the situation in the future.

I mean sure, if the end the cost of electricity to businesses is lower than current cost of companies fueling their generators each day, maybe we can look at that working out, but as  we know of quite a couple of companies that have had to leave Nigeria as a result of high cost of running business on generators. So, I am still for Government having some serious plans in place to help the poor because, in my opinion, electricity to vital to helping lift people out of poverty in the developing/under developed world.

how do i assume miracles will happen? if it's cos of the statement i made earlier, i must admit, i'm not an economics-ish person o, i'm a straight up technical guy, and as for seeing things your way, i've always said that nigerians dont pay enough, my position on power in nigeria hasn't changed. If i remember correctly, you once were pushing for solar and all.

power is a long term thing, unlike telecomms where they were able to break even in 2-3 years, according to current calculations, it'll take close to 10years in power, so for that ten years govt will have to be paying the companies money, it's called securitization. problem is that at the current tariff rates, it'll be suicidal, hence the chicken and egg scenario which MYTO was meant to solve, but the thing is, with the way the credit market is, where will the private investors get the credit to enter the market NOW, when MYTO hasn't achieved its goal, or better still, there's no clear cut policy on power in nigeria!

Kobojunkie:

How did you show me this?  Can we also safely conclude, applying the logic you have offered me so far, that because the cost of telecom in Nigeria is one of the highest in Africa, Nigerians can afford healthcare? Come on!!

Snap out of this NEED TO LEAD/WIN arguments, and use your head. That the people you see and know have cell phones and receive calls on them DOES NOT MEAN all NIGERIANS can AFFORD CELL PHONES, let alone the costs that come with it. THINK! THINK!! THINK!!!

What next? Because SOME Nigerians you know have generators and buy diesel, even if for one hour for their generators means ALL NIGERIANS CAN AFFORD electricity?  You do realize someone tried that argument earlier and we dissected it and showed how it is flawed generalization. Yet, you come back at me with something exactly same, only using telecomm in this case and think it makes sense?

If you are having a hard time reasoning this one out, think of Obama's healthcare( funny I have to continue to use Obama examples to help people think better now) plan, and how it is designed in such a way as to offer over 40 million Americans who CANNOT afford healthcare, subsidies to help them afford it. Now, think of our electricity issue in sort of the same way and see how it is possibly a good idea to start thinking along the lines too. . . .Yeah USE THOSE BRAIN CELLS . . . they are there to be used! Not insulting you but come on!

With all due respect, you make absolutely no sense. The other posters used valid analogies with the telecoms sector another sector with similar parallels on how best to sort out the mess we were in and the implications of privatization not to mention the 2 sides of the divide were split along these exact same lines about average Nigerians not being able to afford the service.

Last I check there are over 60 million lines out there in Nigeria as opposed to the appalling 100k Nitel lines and everyone from a Bus driver to Mama in the Village has one. Now compare that to the blackhole that was Nitel and you cannot tell anyone the current high prices is not a vastly improved situation  which can be improved by better regulation (better quality management at the NCC) and lower costs (like reducing power costs for running telco equipment for starters). Will you argue universal coverage provided by Nitel now with the benefit of hindsight? see Mtel for a look at were we would have being if your half ass position saw the light of day.  

Barbers, electricians, Hairdressers, welders all run their businesses on generators and they certainly are not spending anything less than 5k on average to run their business at below sub-optimal levels, these people are NOT middle class and are definitely representative of the class of Nigerians you want to empower their lot and improve their efficiency. Like someone said even face me-i-face you houses are crowded with generators that run for significant part of the night also populated by artisans. It costs at least $1 to get from one end of Lagos and back (even prior to BRT) and even more in Abuja and PH with the okada ban and all.

Pie in the sky schemes devoid of any taught, scant on details are not going to bail us out of the rut we are in as a Nation, providing those who can work with the tools to help them improve their lot will. Adequate electricity for even a marginal reduction in the cost of running a generator for the same amount of time will significantly improve all parts of the economy and better the lot of all Nigerians. It took centuries for healthcare reform to get passed in America because of the share cost of providing universal healthcare or you think healthcare reform ideas started in the 90's or even 60's?

netotse:

i've always said that nigerians dont pay enough, my position on power in nigeria hasn't changed.

Well, I sort of agree. I know many do not realize how heavily subsidized the current system is, and so are under the assumption that a majority, many of whom currently live at less than $2/day can afford it.  However, I am not against subsidies because I really am pro-poor people and their right to have equal access to many of the same amenities few of us can afford. In my opinion, our society has not gotten to the point where we start arguing against it as the majority are still too impoverished to be expected to follow along all on their own.

netotse:

If i remember correctly, you once were pushing for solar and all.

WHAT THE HECK? Nigeria run on SOLAR? Are you going BUNKERS?? HECK NO!
I only mentioned solar for GOVERNMENT since it already allots over  Naira 1 Billion each year in the budget for generators, generator maintenance and fueling.  In addition, solar could work miracles for companies and residents who would like to step away from generators. However, SOLAR FOR ALL OF NIGERIA? Na weed you think say I smoke?? ROFLMAO!!
Our generator economy already wastes over 150 million dollars(as of a report back in 2008) a year to maintain. If that amount where invested in renewables, we would definitely cut down on the waste and help in drastically reducing costs eventually.

netotse:

power is a long term thing, unlike telecomms where they were able to break even in 2-3 years, according to current calculations, it'll take close to 10years in power, so for that ten years govt will have to be paying the companies money, it's called securitization. problem is that at the current tariff rates, it'll be suicidal, hence the chicken and egg scenario which MYTO was meant to solve, but the thing is, with the way the credit market is, where will the private investors get the credit to enter the market NOW, when MYTO hasn't achieved its goal, or better still, there's no clear cut policy on power in nigeria!

I do not profess to have a solution -- I am only saying the issue has to be put into consideration NOW and not later, which is like in typical Nigerian problem solving style. I used the Obama healthcare plan example in one of my posts to explain why we best be considering it now as we make decisions on what solutions to go with.

@kobojunkie
i'll reply you in a bit, my mother has commandeered the computer. . .

Kobojunkie:

I am glad you have 40% of the WORKING POPULATION and not 40% of the POPULATION OF NIGERIA up there. How many businesses can afford that amount right now? Many businesses have been forced to close shop because they cannot afford running their biz on diesel, and the Naira 6000 is a conservative estimate here.

Any Business that cannot afford to pay Naira 6000 ~per month simply has no business conducting any business that will consume Naira 6000 worth of electricity, Same applies to any household~It is that Simple~ If a 3bedroom family home in the west pay like £40 on electricity per month with all its electrical equipment e.g fridge; freezer; aat least3TTVset; computer; wwashingmachine ; microwave etc then if we are to follow same thinking a low income household where both parent are at worst petty trader should not have energy usage of more than Naira 1500 per month~ The same household u will findout that the man of the house probable downs Naira1500 worth of beer in a month~ We need to be realistic~Electricity should be sold to end users on Prepaid Meter mainly~ If Telecoms in nNigeriadepended on pay monthly it would have been a failure~ Non Payment of Bills was the bane of nitel~we the population ran NNiteldown not only its management~Your Postulation that Electricity is should be a basic affordability of the average nNigerianWhile am not arguing against that they key is making electricity available 24/7 and like earlier stated household should use what they can afford~~the number of times I had to turn off lightbulbs and unused appliances when am with families in naija u would think am an eEcofreak~ u would have thought seeing the deficiency in production capacity of PHCN(NEPA) that most homes in naija will be using energy saving bulbs and be more energy saving conscious than those of us  living in the west~

Moves:

Any Business that cannot afford to pay Naira 6000 ~per month simply has no business conducting any business that will consume Naira 6000 worth of electricity, Same applies to any household~It is that Simple~ If a 3bedroom family home in the west pay like £40 on electricity per month with all its electrical equipment e.g fridge; freezer; aat least3TTVset; computer; wwashingmachine ; microwave etc then if we are to follow same thinking a low income household where both parent are at worst petty trader should not have energy usage of more than Naira 1500 per month~ The same household u will findout that the man of the house probable downs Naira1500 worth of beer in a month~ We need to be realistic~Electricity should be sold to end users on Prepaid Meter mainly~ If Telecoms in nNigeriadepended on pay monthly it would have been a failure~ Non Payment of Bills was the bane of nitel~we the population ran NNiteldown not only its management~Your Postulation that Electricity is should be a basic affordability of the average nNigerianWhile am not arguing against that they key is making electricity available 24/7 and like earlier stated household should use what they can afford~~the number of times I had to turn off lightbulbs and unused appliances when am with families in naija u would think am an eEcofreak~ u would have thought seeing the deficiency in production capacity of PHCN(NEPA) that most homes in naija will be using energy saving bulbs and be more energy saving conscious than those of us  living in the west~

I am simply advocating we go for AFFORDABLE 24/7 electricity rather than just 24/7 electricity.

Majority of our small businesses today cannot afford electricity costs and that is why many are closing the doors. Naira 6000 to a company that barely makes N15,000 a month is a lot of money. Many of our civil servants today barely make over that amount each month( assuming the recent change made by Jonathan has not already kicked in).

Do you happen to know how much compact-florescent bulbs currently cost in Nigeria?  The last time I discussed those bulbs, I got told that it was too expensive for Nigerians. Even solar is considered too expensive by folks who currently run huge generators down there. It is absurd but after researching, I figured out it is likely the case.

When you speak of electricity cost to low income households, what other appliances are you saying they ought not to have in their homes if they are unable to afford footing the bill for it?

Refrigerators? Light bulbs?Irons( for ironing cloths)? . . .  do you have a list?

I do not think it is fair to doom the other members of the household to a life of poverty for having an uncontrollable drunk in the house with them. ROFLMAO!!!

But prepaid meters do not guarantee that all persons will have 24/7 electricity. The issue of affordability still comes in to play whether you prepay or you do not.

Kobojunkie:

I am simply advocating we go for AFFORDABLE 24/7 electricity rather than just 24/7 electricity.

Majority of our small businesses today cannot afford electricity costs and that is why many are closing the doors. Naira 6000 to a company that barely makes N15,000 a month is a lot of money. Many of our civil servants today barely make over that amount each month( assuming the recent change made by Jonathan has not already kicked in).

Do you happen to know how much compact-florescent bulbs currently cost in Nigeria?  The last time I discussed those bulbs, I got told that it was too expensive for Nigerians. Even solar is considered too expensive by folks who currently run huge generators down there. It is absurd but after researching, I figured out it is likely the case.

When you speak of electricity cost to low income households, what other appliances are you saying they ought not to have in their homes if they are unable to afford footing the bill for it?

Refrigerators? Light bulbs?Irons( for ironing cloths)? . . .  do you have a list?

I do not think it is fair to doom the other members of the household to a life of poverty for having an uncontrollable drunk in the house with them. ROFLMAO!!!

But prepaid meters do not guarantee that all persons will have 24/7 electricity. The issue of affordability still comes in to play whether you prepay or you do not.

civil servants earn allowances, for instance, your housing allowance is around 45% of your annual, you might earn a 15% entertainment allowance, etc. . .just letting you know so you dont get ambushed one of these days

netotse:

civil servants earn allowances, for instance, your housing allowance is around 45% of your annual, you might earn a 15% entertainment allowance, etc. . .just letting you know so you dont get ambushed one of these days

Thank you for the information!

Kobojunkie:

I am simply advocating we go for AFFORDABLE 24/7 electricity rather than just 24/7 electricity.
Majority of our small businesses today cannot afford electricity costs and that is why many are closing the doors. Naira 6000 to a company that barely makes N15,000 a month is a lot of money. Many of our civil servants today barely make over that amount each month( assuming the recent change made by Jonathan has not already kicked in).

The term affordable is relative~and can be used loosely as one wishes~Everyone would want it to be affordable no matter how well off one is~In the west even the wealthy with large homes complain about the cost of energy~ hence most seek alternatives ~ Hence the reason i stated consumption~and based my assumption and comparation with the 3bed home in the west.pays €40 for lectrcity ~N1500 for a room household,

Also Majority of our small businesses can afford electricity cost but what they cannot afford is the cost of doing their business with having to generate their own energy~ generator cost; maintainance and cost of fuel~read an article somewhere that the market rate user will pay in nigeria for electricity without subsidy is a third of the cost they will spend to generate same energy themselves~ Also It is possible to charge business users medium to large businesses a prenium as they consume~ like the day time energy cost be higher than night time in the west~thus making it cheaper for household~but the problem is that people are not willing to pay~hence my insisting on the prepay method~

Kobojunkie:

Do you happen to know how much compact-florescent bulbs currently cost in Nigeria?  The last time I discussed those bulbs, I got told that it was too expensive for Nigerians. Even solar is considered too expensive by folks who currently run huge generators down there. It is absurd but after researching, I figured out it is likely the case.

.
Thats not the case but it is only false economics that is the issue~say at most the cost Naira 750 and last for 5years~its a no brainer~ the case for solar is different cause of the substancial initial investment~if we had a system like they do in german whereby you connect your solar to the grid and the government pay you a prenium for the +Ve difference between your usage and your generation most people running even medium size generators would be scrabling for solar~as an additional cost being storage of solar energy in batteries is removed,

Kobojunkie:

When you speak of electricity cost to low income households, what other appliances are you saying they ought not to have in their homes if they are unable to afford footing the bill for it?

Refrigerators? Light bulbs?Irons( for ironing cloths)? . . .  do you have a list?
I do not think it is fair to doom the other members of the household to a life of poverty for having an uncontrollable drunk in the house with them. ROFLMAO!!!
But prepaid meters do not guarantee that all persons will have 24/7 electricity. The issue of affordability still comes in to play whether you prepay or you do not.

In the US households with children get their energy turned off for failure to pay~so nothing new~ In the Uk the government dont pay for electricity for those on welfare~ So the member of the family in this example will know that its a member of their own family that is dooming them to a life of poverty and not the state~hence will ask question and seek resolution~And to be honest I seriously doubt that we will have a noticeable amount of such cases as nigerians we known to be proud~ nobody will like the house to be without electricity because they fail to topup~ ~or better still ration their usage~ heck for all of my friends and myself included could relate to having all the TV and Videos and Games but we were only allowed to switch them on at weekends only~

@Geeko

I am paying roughly the equivalent of 6000 naira for uninterrupted electricty abroad, isn't Nigerians paying more to buy diesel to power generators?

I pay roughly #30,000 naira (equivalent) bi-monthly on a residential, small family house. But the power has never fluctuated since l can remember!

If given a choice between "stable+ relatively expensive" OR "Cheap+epileptic" as we currently have it, I bet Nigerians would go for the former.
There is a knock-on effect on both sides
Stable: No Gen, No Smoke, No threat of sudden fire, Stability+ long-term planning (business and domestic), industrialization, less stress, e.t.c

Epileptic: Just reverse the above but its cheap!

I some cases, you pay but dont even get the electricity, especially when PHCN has realized it  is better to hoard those Pre-pay meters that does not allow for bribery/PHCN egunje!

Life wil never be the same, if we get stable power in Nigeria

Moves:

The term affordable is relative~and can be used loosely as one wishes~Everyone would want it to be affordable no matter how well off one is~

Affordable as in even the poor enjoying 24/7 electricity.

Moves:

Also Majority of our small businesses can afford electricity cost but what they cannot afford is the cost of doing their business with having to generate their own energy~ generator cost;  . . . Also It is possible to charge business users medium to large businesses a prenium as they consume~ like the day time energy cost be higher than night time in the west~thus making it cheaper for household~but the problem is that people are not willing to pay~hence my insisting on the prepay method~

I am not sure I agree with your postulation that currently small businesses can afford electricity. But yeah, like someone already mentioned, medium to large businesses could be charged a premium so as to make it cheaper for households. Do we currently have enough medium to large businesses to make that happen? Or are we assuming many of those will come into being after electricity is solved? We have lost some of our companies in the past couple of years.

Moves:

the case for solar is different cause of the substancial initial investment~

I disagree with the above assertion. There is no need for a substantial initial investment for solar. A store that uses 200 w/hr of energy to power a TV and lights does not need to invest in more than it would cost to have that set up.  Solar systems offer modularity as a benefit. You only invest in buying what you need, and can add to it as time goes on.
Many generator users already have the batteries, and inverters. Those can be used in a solar setting with little much else than cost of panels and installation to deal with.

Moves:

In the US households with children get their energy turned off for failure to pay~so nothing new~

You forgot to mention the many programs, some run by government, out there that help families pay for their electricity and heating bills.

Kobojunkie:

Affordable as in even the poor enjoying 24/7 electricity.
I am not sure I agree with your postulation that currently small businesses can afford electricity. But yeah, like someone already mentioned, medium to large businesses could be charged a premium so as to make it cheaper for households. Do we currently have enough medium to large businesses to make that happen? Or are we assuming many of those will come into being after electricity is solved? We have lost some of our companies in the past couple of years.
I disagree with the above assertion. There is no need for a substantial initial investment for solar. A store that uses 200 w/hr of energy to power a TV and lights does not need to invest in more than it would cost to have that set up.  Solar systems offer modularity as a benefit. You only invest in buying what you need, and can add to it as time goes on.
Many generator users already have the batteries, and inverters. Those can be used in a solar setting with little much else than cost of panels and installation to deal with.
You forgot to mention the many programs, some run by government, out there that help families pay for their electricity and heating bills.

why would you disagree that a small business should be able to afford electricity(he refers to utility not self generated o)? if they cant then they have no business doing business lol. since you say you do, can you give examples of or list the possible loads the 'said' small business'll use and i'll help you cost his electricity bill for a month. . .

having a generator and an inverter is not the norm in nigeria. . .a deep cycle battery costs 50-70 grand for a 200AH btw

we dont manufacture solar panels in nigeria(i know one govt agency is fooling themselves that they will soon, but where will the get cost effective electricity to run the factory?) so the panels will be shipped, that increases the price bigtime!

Kobojunkie:

The math you have there does not work for solar if you really think long term about it.  Assuming the current maintainance culture we have in Nigeria remains same, solar would likely not require our goverment reinvesting almost 2 Billion Naira each year into power generation for goverment buildings across the country for about 10 years. After the first 3 years of investing that amount, it could be at 100% supply from Solar. So in the long run Solar is definitely cheaper than our Government's current Generator economy. 

If used right, the panels can serve individuals about 25 years, and persons will likely recoup initial investment, and more, in the technology. People currently on generator do not recoup any of the costs they put in. And they continually have to pump and more money into getting electricty.  In fact I will go as far as to say that Solar makes more sense than generators to every single nigerian out there today.

'Financing cost for Solar Energy Systems is assumed to be 5% per annum. These costs are amortized over a 20 year life. This is a significant factor in the Index. Our Economic Payback page demonstrates how solar electricity cost changes with different interest rates.' from the same site, so you see that they factor in the costs into the price projections.

plus, as you know solar is space intensive, the way things are, there's not enough space around said govt building to site the solar panels, trust me i've given this solar thing a lot of thought, i even plan to exploit it in nigeria self i just have a bit of learning to do before i become naija's first solar millionare(or hopefully billionare)

Kobomoje - i feel you.
Power has to be affordable and not for the rich alone but then people will use according to what they can afford.
I see people just assume the income level of majority on Nigerian and forget that millions of Nigerians cannot even afford the smallest generator (i pass my neighbour) which is like N12K-N14K. We should not just use what we see in Lagos to make judgment we need to move around in the night in other towns when there is not electricity supply then we will realise that majority of Nigerians are really poor because of the darkness and inability to afford generators.
Also people tend to mention how much they pay abroad for these services abroad but quickly forget that there is a reasonable minmum wage over there. This wage is enough for you to be able to at least pay for bills e.g gas, electricity e.t.c but in Nigeria what is the minmum wage

Yes consumers will have to pay more for us to have stable power supply because that will ensure private power company to invest but the cost/KWH has to be reasonable so that the low income earners with normally less KWH consumption will be able to pay

great idea, this allows for competition, which is always a good idea. local governments and governoprs who are not doing their jobs would be exposed. there would be more electricity bill now for many people, im under the impression that lagos would do well in provision of electricty for most people

netotse:

why would you disagree that a small business should be able to afford electricity(he refers to utility not self generated o)? if they cant then they have no business doing business lol. since you say you do, can you give examples of or list the possible loads the 'said' small business'll use and i'll help you cost his electricity bill for a month. . .

That part confused me because most businesses do not even get enough electricity right now from the subsidized grid. So, they are forced to go for generating which costs more.
When I think average small business in Nigeria, I think the small Garri/Tomator Grinding shops on the corner, the Print stores, Salons, Saw mills, small mom and pop stores that would like to offer services but cannot do that consistently, tailors shops, mechanic stores etc.

netotse:

having a generator and an inverter is not the norm in nigeria. . .a deep cycle battery costs 50-70 grand for a 200AH btw

There are less affordable batteries in the market as well. I have been in talks with my uncle who plans to spend $3000 to install solar on his house in the next 2 months, and the price he got for the batteries were Naira 17,000 each.  

netotse:

we dont manufacture solar panels in nigeria(i know one govt agency is fooling themselves that they will soon, but where will the get cost effective electricity to run the factory?) so the panels will be shipped, that increases the price bigtime!

We do not need to manufacture solar panels in Nigeria today, just as we do not need to manufacture TVs in Nigeria for to have them.  Actually, price of shipping is not as expensive as you think there. I know this because just last week, I got a call back from KLMCargo to give me quote I requested on cost of shipping Panels to Nigeria.  

netotse:

'Financing cost for Solar Energy Systems is assumed to be 5% per annum. These costs are amortized over a 20 year life. This is a significant factor in the Index. Our Economic Payback page demonstrates how solar electricity cost changes with different interest rates.' from the same site, so you see that they factor in the costs into the price projections.

You are looking at a site designed with the consumption of American homes in mind. Nigerian homes do not consume 1/10th of what Americans do, so Nigerian homes do not need to invest $13,000 to $25000 when thinking of moving to Solar. Solar panels are modular, so you can start by installing a 70W panel to maybe power some of the bulbs in the house, and then add more and more panels as you see fit. In addition, Nigeria gets about two times of the solar hours yowe get here in most of America, so there is really no need for that much of an investment.  

netotse:

plus, as you know solar is space intensive, the way things are, there's not enough space around said govt building to site the solar panels, trust me i've given this solar thing a lot of thought, i even plan to exploit it in nigeria self i just have a bit of learning to do before i become naija's first solar millionare(or hopefully billionare)

I have already started exploiting solar and I am serious in telling you that the average Nigerian roof can comfortably fit the panels available today. The panels on the market are light-weight and able to fit on most of the roofs out there if securely installed. Lol . . .  I am going to beat you to this as I am already working on getting my NABCEP certification and hopefully get certified as a contractor too. ROFLMAO!!!

OJ2010:

Kobomoje - i feel you.
Power has to be affordable and not for the rich alone but then people will use according to what they can afford.

I see people just assume the income level of majority on Nigerian and forget that millions of Nigerians cannot even afford the smallest generator (i pass my neighbour) which is like N12K-N14K. We should not just use what we see in Lagos to make judgment we need to move around in the night in other towns when there is not electricity supply then we will realise that majority of Nigerians are really poor because of the darkness and inability to afford generators.

Also people tend to mention how much they pay abroad for these services abroad but quickly forget that there is a reasonable minmum wage over there. This wage is enough for you to be able to at least pay for bills e.g gas, electricity e.t.c but in Nigeria what is the minmum wage

Yes consumers will have to pay more for us to have stable power supply because that will ensure private power company to invest but the cost/KWH has to be reasonable so that the low income earners with normally less KWH consumption will be able to pay 

I am glad you understand the points I have been trying to make all day long  . . ,  lol

No mind  me, I actually enjoying going over those points so as to help people better understand how flawed some of the logic offered are when it comes to average Nigerians affording electricity is.

Kobojunkie:

That part confused me because most businesses do not even get enough electricity right now from the subsidized grid. So, they are forced to go for generating which costs more.
When I think average small business in Nigeria, I think the small Garri/Tomator Grinding shops on the corner, the Print stores, Salons, Saw mills, small mom and pop stores that would like to offer services but cannot do that consistently, tailors shops, mechanic stores etc.

seen, even if they cant sha, they can pass the costs across to the customer, you picked the wrong examples o. . .i can 110% tell you none of those categories are affected in the way you described

  There are less affordable batteries in the market as well. I have been in talks with my uncle who plans to spend $3000 to install solar on his house in the next 2 months, and the price he got for the batteries were Naira 17,000 each.  

those aren't deep cycle batteries, they'll spoil much faster, trust me on that. . .dont use any battery apart from a deep cycle battery for any solar installation you do. . .(dont let afam catch you mentioning normal batteries o. . .lol)

We do not need to manufacture solar panels in Nigeria today, just as we do not need to manufacture TVs in Nigeria for to have them.  Actually, price of shipping is not as expensive as you think there. I know this because just last week, I got a call back from KLMCargo to give me quote I requested on cost of shipping Panels to Nigeria.  

nice to know that, thanks for the info(even though i have no idea how deep you pockets go sha, cos 'not expensive' is relative)

You are looking at a site designed with the consumption of American homes in mind. Nigerian homes do not consume 1/10th of what Americans do, so Nigerian homes do not need to invest $13,000 to $25000 when thinking of moving to Solar. Solar panels are modular, so you can start by installing a 70W panel to maybe power some of the bulbs in the house, and then add more and more panels as you see fit. In addition, Nigeria gets about two times of the solar hours yowe get here in most of America, so there is really no need for that much of an investment.  

i'm thinking technically, but seeing as i have never practically come across a solar installation and you have i'll defer to you for now. . .BTW the amt of usable sunlight is called insolation, i think it's abt 7-8 in naija, and besides, why would i want to power bulbs with solar panels? think more of fans and ish. . .you dig?(that's part of the reason Deep cycle batts are better)

I have already started exploiting solar and I am serious in telling you that the average Nigerian roof can comfortably fit the panels available today. Lol . . .  I am going to beat you to this as I am already working on getting my NABCEP certification and hopefully get certified as a contractor too so I can start selling and INSTALLING this year. ROFLMAO!!!

Not to worry, since i'm a gentleman, i'll let you have a few years start, it's always good to be nice to 'the competition'.and abt the roof size thingy for a home yes, not an office, offices tend to use more inductive loads than homes(AC's, lifts, printers et al ). make sure you get good technical ppl o, cos there are a lot of possible pitfalls. . . i'm not particular about installation and all, heck we might even do biz sef,  an advantage of being a PS engineer(a young one though) you think differently from your average engineer, plus i've spent a bit of time around PHCN so i have an insiders view sha. . . trust me when i say i know the twist that all the ppl that have considered solar in naija haven't considered.

netotse:

seen, even if they cant sha, they can pass the costs across to the customer, you picked the wrong examples o. . .i can 110% tell you none of those categories are affected in the way you described

Maybe not where you are but I know many of those that have been affected as a result of the low electricity supply to business.

netotse:

those aren't deep cycle batteries, they'll spoil much faster, trust me on that. . .dont use any battery apart from a deep cycle battery for any solar installation you do. . .(dont let afam catch you mentioning normal batteries o. . .lol)

I don’t know what they are. Like I said, my uncle told me of them and he is currently doing his research on what is available versus what he will need me to ship to him.

netotse:

i'm thinking technically, but seeing as i have never practically come across a solar installation and you have i'll defer to you for now. . .BTW the amt of usable sunlight is called insolation, i think it's abt 7-8 in naija, and besides, why would i want to power bulbs with solar panels? think more of fans and ish. . .you dig?(that's part of the reason Deep cycle batts are better)

I know it is called insolation and yes, Most of Nigeria gets about twice most regions here in the US/europe can boast of. Well, people do power bulbs with Solar currently. Ever seen the solar panels on the street lights in Lagos? If what you want to start with is just light, you are free to do that and then build on that as you go. 

netotse:
Not to worry, since i'm a gentleman, i'll let you have a few years start, it's always good to be nice to 'the competition'.and abt the roof size thingy for a home yes, not an office, offices tend to use more inductive loads than homes(AC's, lifts, printers et al ). make sure you get good technical ppl o, cos there are a lot of possible pitfalls. . . i'm not particular about installation and all, heck we might even do biz sef,  i'm a power system engineer(just finished NYSC though) so i think very differently from your average engineer, plus i've spent a bit of time around PHCN so i have an insiders view sha. . . trust me when i say i know the twist that all the ppl that have considered solar in naija haven't considered.

Considering solar on limited knowledge is one thing but when you have access to all the necessary information on it, you quickly realize two things
a) It makes sense in Nigeria and Africa as a whole
b) It is more affordable than what many people currently have right now

There are villages in kenya, and schools in south africa, kenya, uganda, running on solar already. They are doing fine. There are huts that power bulbs with solar in Uganda, kenya etc.  If it can work in those countries, I am 100% it can and will work in Nigeria for those who want to go for it, and you do not need to break the bank to go solar. I like to say again, SOLAR MAKES SENSE for Nigeria.  Do the math yourself.

The average middle class house already spends about $100 to $200 on diesel each month, that is about $2400 a year. The Generator probably cost upwards of $500 to purchase(maintainance cost not even factored in), the inverter and battery system, same as that you would use when considering a solar array. If this family chose instead to invest about $7200( approximately three years of cost to use generator instead) on solar to produce enough electricity to power most all of the appliances in the house when tied to the grid, it would cut down on waste and noise.

Kobojunkie:

Maybe not where you are but I know many of those that have been affected as a result of the low electricity supply to business.

lol. . .sigh. . .saw mills are sited near close to places where you can buy the wood,it's the market that determines the site and the costs are txferred to the ppl that want to cut the wood, we even had biz at a sawmill tde sef. . .lol

pepper tomato seller, most of them dont use electricity, they use the manual machines, which barely consume any fuel

printers, have you ever been to shomolu in lagos? that's the print capital, just visit that place. . .

salons, its the customers that bear the cost of the fuel, for instance cutting your hair when the generator is on costs more, not to talk of the perm, if she isn't making money, it's cos she's doing something wrong, think location or service delivery etc

I don’t know what they are. Like I said, my uncle told me of them and he is currently doing his research on what is available versus what he will need me to ship to him.

i'm starting to fear for you, is your uncle an engineer?if he isn't be careful o. . .the fact that you mentioned 17K as the price for batteries that'll be used with an inverter is a bad sign o. some dude was on NL complaining how his inverter backup fell from 12hours to 3 hours in 3 months, that's what happens when you use normal batteries there are a lot of ppl that claim to install solar panels in naija but can you really offer a service you dont know intoto?

Considering solar on limited knowledge is one thing but when you have access to all the necessary information on it, you quickly realize two things
a) It makes sense in Nigeria and Africa as a whole
b) It is more affordable than what many people currently have right now
There are villages in kenya, and schools in south africa running on solar already. They are doing fine. There are huts that power bulbs with solar in Uganda, kenya etc.  If it can work in those countries, I am 100% it can and will work in Nigeria for those who want to go for it, and you do not need to break the bank to go solar. I like to say again, SOLAR MAKES SENSE for Nigeria. 

huts ehn?, nice to hear we're going after different markets, you really shouldn't think of nigeria and terms like 'huts' in the same sentence. . .

i'm really enjoying this discussion but i think we've derailed this thread enough, dont you?

netotse:

lol. . .sigh. . .saw mills are sited near close to places where you can buy the wood,it's the market that determines the site and the costs are txferred to the ppl that want to cut the wood, we even had biz at a sawmill tde sef. . .lol
pepper tomato seller, most of them dont use electricity, they use the manual machines, which barely consume any fuel
printers, have you ever been to shomolu in lagos? that's the print capital, just visit that place. . .

salons, its the customers that bear the cost of the fuel, for instance cutting your hair when the generator is on costs more, not to talk of the perm, if she isn't making money, it's cos she's doing something wrong, think location or service delivery etc

I don't think the statements you have made above apply across the board. Not all businesses are run in the manual manner you would like to believe they can. And yes, With ALL businesses, the customers usually bears the cost, so in cases where it is not cost effective, business owners feel it better to close store rather than continue. If I had an internet cafe and am not able to make enough money to cover cost of power, closing shop is not a bad idea. So, even in Lagos, there are businesses that currently cannot afford cost of power to their business(both generated and grid considered), and have had to close down as a result. 

netotse:
i'm starting to fear for you, is your uncle an engineer?if he isn't be careful o. . .the fact that you mentioned 17K as the price for batteries that'll be used with an inverter is a bad sign o. some dude was on NL complaining how his inverter backup fell from 12hours to 3 hours in 3 months, that's what happens when you use normal batteries there are a lot of ppl that claim to install solar panels in naija but can you really offer a service you dont know intoto?

I don't see what it is you are going on about still. I explained to you that he came back to me saying he heard of batteries running at 17K in Nigeria, and is currently researching to figure out what kind they are. I don't see anything wrong in researching availables to figure out ways to save yourself money, no matter what you are trying to get into.  He does not have to be an engineer or an expert to get that info, or does he? You don't have to have it all figured out to have solar. That is why you have solar technicians who can help you with figuring out what system best suites your cost bracket. If he comes back with info on the battery, I can definitely tell him if it is good enough or if it is best for us to go with backup plan which is purchase and ship tthat from here as well.

netotse:
huts ehn?, nice to hear we're going after different markets, you really shouldn't think of nigeria and terms like 'huts' in the same sentence. . .

i'm really enjoying this discussion but i think we've derailed this thread enough, dont you?

What has my mentioned that even huts can use solar to do with this now? lol

My statement remains that Solar works in Nigeria for the poor and the rich alike!! Simple! People who live in huts can use it; middle class homes can apply it to their benefit, and our government can definitely cut down the current level of waste by using it instead of genertors at almost Naira 2 billion down the drain each year.

if you really want to know how those batteries can be made to work for you, check this out Make your own 220 Volt backup power supply

Kobojunkie:

I don't think the statements you have made above apply across the board. Not all businesses are run in the manual manner you would like to portray they do above. And yes, in most all businesses the customers bear the cost, so in cases where it is not cost effective, business owners feel it better to close store rather than continue.

i asked you to give the examples so i could see how far along you had reasoned the matter, it's alright to state that businesses have failed but you need to understand how and yes i understand you're pro-poor and you tend to look at things from their angle

my point was, some businesses will fail not cause the he/she couldn't afford electricity but because the person couldn't adapt his business model to fit his situation, what i was trying to do was give you an idea of the playing ground the people you listed as examples play in, so you could realise that while it is an important factor, your claim that a lot of small businesses have to close because they cant afford to run generators is shaky.

if you site your business in the wrong part of town you will fail,
a printer that bases himself anywhere outside shomolu in lagos needs to have a gangster edge cause he's outside the market, his prices'll be out of sync, customers tend to like the number of choices that they there get it's like a brokerage choosing not to have an office on wall street. i asked you to go there so you could see how the printers cope with the electricity problem.

a saw mill that is sited far from where wood is bought wont have the volume required to generate a profit electricity or no electricity because the wood is easier to transport after it has been milled.

you have to admit, in the two cases above the two business could(i woulda preferred to use will but for political correctness' sake) fail and it wont be because there was no light.

i have lived in areas where there was steady supply and i've also lived in areas with abysmal supply, i'm talking from experience.

netotse:

if you site your business in the wrong part of town you will fail,
a printer that bases himself anywhere outside shomolu in lagos needs to have a gangster edge cause he's outside the market, his prices'll be out of sync, customers tend to like the number of choices that they there get it's like a brokerage choosing not to have an office on wall street. i asked you to go there so you could see how the printers cope with the electricity problem.

So, are you saying ALL customers who want any printing work done go all the way to shomolu to get it done?  So what about the outside of Shomolu or even outside of Lagos? Let me guess, non-lagosians do not need any printing service?

netotse:

a saw mill that is sited far from where wood is bought wont have the volume required to generate a profit electricity or no electricity because the wood is easier to transport after it has been milled.

How many of the sawmills you know of today are located right inside the forests where the wood comes from? Easier to transport after it has been milled, and electricity? Some of that milled wood go all the way to the other side of the country. Not sure how electricity will help that.

I have a cool video for you to watch. Did you see Welcome to Lagos Part 2? There is a good example of saw mill businesses for you on that video and I suggest you watch it.

netotse:

you have to admit, in the two cases above the two business could(i woulda preferred to use will but for political correctness' sake) fail and it wont be because there was no light.

NO, I am even more confused right now .  So . . . Are you . . . Ok. Wait!

Consider the following  scenarios

[size=13pt]Scenario #1[/size]

I start a print business somewhere in Abuja. In addition to basic print jobs, I also offer a special print service, which I know many of the small businesses in the area need (what got me started in the business in the first place). My special print job requires me running my printers for about 8 hours for each request. With constant power outage in the area, I have had to rely on generators for most of the power. However, after a couple of weeks of offering the special service on generator alone (no electricity from the grid in the past 6 weeks), I realize that I have had to dig deep into my profits to power my generators for the special service. I decide to raise price of the service to offset some of the cost but that did not work as my customers refused to pay more than they used to for the service. I find myself unable to continue offering the service, and so decide not to. My basic print service however does not bring in enough customers to help me break even at the end of the month, and so I decide it is best to pack up and maybe think of another line of business or getting a job anywhere I can get one.

[size=13pt]Scenario #2[/size]

I run a Garri/ condiments mill. I have two machines, a manual machine and a electric machine. My manual machine I use for very light orders, but my automatic machine, I use for most of my heavy orders since it saves me a lot on time and I am able to process about 20 big orders each working day(12 hour days) with it. My manual machine is too small to handle the big orders which bring in the big money for my business, and customers are unwilling to wait almost an hour for their orders to be processed.

About three months ago, power from the grid was cut from an average of 6 hours a day to barely 1 hour each day, zero on some days. I have since had to run my business on generator. My generator cost has gone up from about $150 a month to $400 each month (that includes more frequent repairs of on my generator), and there seems no end in sight to the power headache. Though I still process about 20 big orders a day, I find that I am unable to break even with the new development. Working more hours makes no sense since that also means running my generator for longer.

I tried selling items like phone cards and grocery items out of my store to help raise some additional funds but that did not work well. I tried finding investors but no luck so far. It has been three months and I realize that if the current situation continues, I will likely have to close shop, and maybe find myself a job.


QUESTIONS

a) Did I have to close my business in either case because no one wanted to patronize my business?

b) Could I have continued my business if I didn't have to depend so much on power generated at costs I could not afford at the end of the day?

Here is a possible other for larger companies

I am a PZ rep. Running business in Nigeria in the early years, we did not have to pay so much for electricity. However, we have had to rely greatly on generators for powering our factories in the past decade or more. Cost of production has increased over 300% as a result, and we find ourselves unable to effectively compete with our foreign competitors. Our profits have gone down and as a result we have had to lay off about 2/3rd of our work staff. Now, it makes no sense to continue in this condition when we know we can move our production site abroad where we are sure to get power at lesser cost, and better compete in the market.

netotse:

i have lived in areas where there was steady supply and i've also lived in areas with abysmal supply, i'm talking from experience.

I am sorry but I don't believe you have experienced enough for you to make blanketing statements such as the ones you have so far on how businesses work with energy.  I have myself lived in areas with bad supply and watched many of the stores in the community, some with great ideas close down as a result.

***just passing by***

Na waoo lawyers full this nairaland, come see arguement 

netotse:

@kobojunkie
the government is actually already subsidizing electricity now, cos what the consumers are paying isn't up to the amount it costs to produce said electricity(forget about whether it is constant or not). . .my point is that for private investors to come into the NESI(naija electricity supply industry) the price'll have to be increased 300+%, the present subsidy is enough of a burden already, the government cannot, i repeat, CANNOT foot the bill. . .

netotse, that sounds wack! Do you know what 300% of the current rates are? I don't know the price per KW, but if I pay about 5k naira now as electricity bill for my apartment, are you saying I should in fact be paying N15k?
Let's not mystify these things. Privatize the generation and distribution, and the prices will crash ultimately. People will pay for what they use. Can you imagine, I am hearing that PHCN wants to withdraw the pre-paid meters, as it was eating into their revenues. What backward thinking. Shior.

I thought I saw some post somewhere here about Nigerians paying the highest telecom tariffs in the world. What is that person smoking? Calling rates in Nigeria are in the top 20 lowest tariff bracket.

This thread is typical naija.
Too many "bookery" professionals,fewer practical minded people.

Do we always have to disagree with someones else's post to justify our opinions?