Any keen watcher of political developments in recent time must be wondering why Saraki and his co-conspirators have not still defected from APC despite numerous indications to that effect. We have heard and read many ultimatums and threats coming from the camp of these fair-weather politicians about their impending defection to PDP with no or little action. It's on this basis I decided to analyze the situation and come to the conclusion that these politicians may not defect after all.

The first question for a defecting politician or camp is "what do I/we stand to gain if I/we defect?
In answering this question, each and every member of the r-APC/n-PDP must have compared their current situation to what is possible in PDP or other party they choose to defect to. For example, in the case of Saraki who is the arrow-head of the group, he must have realized that the best that can happen to him in PDP is what he already has in APC - the Senate Presidency. On the flip side, defecting to PDP/CUPP does not guarantee him that position should APC win majority of the seats in the 9th Senate. So, he will want to only make noise and "shake table" for APC-led FG to go easy on his real sin (conniving with PDP to win the SP and trading the DSP position in the process) and alleged sin of arming deadly gang which was arrested for the killings during the Offa robbery of April. Others including Kwankwaso, Sheu Sanni, Hunkunyi et al are in worse situation than Saraki in the sense that they know winning an APC candidate anointed by PMB in their respective senatorial district is a herculean task. So, they'd reason it's better to stay put and use threat of defection to get an automatic ticket to return in 2019.

In opposition, Saraki will most likely win his senatorial district and possibly win Kwara (60% to APC's 40% in my opinion) for PDP but that's as far as he can go because he has no influence or strong followership outside his state to dent PMB's huge cult-like following in the North. He knows he can't win any contest against APC's Buhari in 2019 and so would not even dare to attempt it for the loss of his senate seat.

To many online warriors shouting Buhari is a tyrant and all the hogwash, those of us who really wanted change are not disappointed in his stance to bring anyone who has committed a crime to book irrespective of their political standing. Should the president say that Saraki should not be questioned for alleged sins because he is in APC or the SP? This was part of what brought Nigeria to where it is and you want us to continue in similar way? This was the way of PDP in the 16 years it ruled and we condemned it day and night but because of blind politicking, some of you want it to continue for some weird reason. Again, if Saraki is not questioned, you will turn around to say "all sins are forgiven once you join APC". What do you want, you confused lot?


Lastly, if Saraki is not a coward using emotions and gullibility of his online supporters to curry sympathy, there can't be a better time to defect with his group from APC to wherever they like. I mean, what is the point in remaining in a party you claim is not treating you fairly for 3.5years and counting? Is APC holding a gun to Saraki's head (and his co-travelers) and preventing them from decamping?

Don't tell me about APC/Oshiomole begging them. We all know that it's natural for a party to want to hold on to their existing members while even trying to win more. So, nothing new in that. At the end of the day, NO ONE can prevent Saraki and co from decamping. I can't wait for him to decamp honestly.

Na you wey he dey use your emotion play I pity.

Lalasticlala Mynd44, what do you guys think about this opinion?

[s]

PassingShot:
Any keen watcher of political developments in recent time must be wondering why Saraki and his co-conspirators have not still defected from APC despite numerous indications to that effect. We have heard and read many ultimatums and threats coming from the camp of these fair-weather politicians about their impending defection to PDP with no or little action. It's on this basis I decided to analyze the situation and come to the conclusion that these politicians may not defect after all.

The first question for a defecting politician or camp is "what do I/we stand to gain if I/we defect?
In answering this question, each and every member of the r-APC/n-PDP must have compared their current situation to what is possible in PDP or other party they choose to defect to. For example, in the case of Saraki who is the arrow-head of the group, he must have realized that the best that can happen to him in PDP is what he already has in APC - the Senate Presidency. On the flip side, defecting to PDP/CUPP does not guarantee him that position should APC win majority of the seats in the 9th Senate. So, he will want to only make noise and "shake table" for APC-led FG to go easy on his real sin (conniving with PDP to win the SP and trading the DSP position in the process) and alleged sin of arming deadly gang which was arrested for the killings during the Offa robbery of April. Others including Kwankwaso, Sheu Sanni, Hunkunyi et al are in worse situation than Saraki in the sense that they know winning an APC candidate anointed by PMB in their respective senatorial district is a herculean task. So, they'd reason it's better to stay put and use threat of defection to get an automatic ticket to return in 2019.

In opposition, Saraki will most likely win his senatorial district and possibly win Kwara (60% to APC's 40% in my opinion) for PDP but that's as far as he can go because he has no influence or strong followership outside his state to dent PMB's huge cult-like following in the North. He knows he can't win any contest against APC's Buhari in 2019 and so would not even dare to attempt it for the loss of his senate seat.

To many online warriors shouting Buhari is a tyrant and all the hogwash, those of us who really wanted change are not disappointed in his stance to bring anyone who has committed a crime to book irrespective of their political standing. Should the president say that Saraki should not be questioned for alleged sins because he is in APC or the SP? This was part of what brought Nigeria to where it is and you want us to continue in similar way? This was the way of PDP in the 16 years it ruled and we condemned it day and night but because of blind politicking, some of you want it to continue for some weird reason. Again, if Saraki is not questioned, you will turn around to say "all sins are forgiven once you join APC". What do you want, you confused lot?


Lastly, if Saraki is not a coward using emotions and gullibility of his online supporters to curry sympathy, there can't be a better time to defect with his group from APC to wherever they like. I mean, what is the point in remaining in a party you claim is not treating you fairly for 3.5years and counting? Is APC holding a gun to Saraki's head (and his co-travelers) and preventing them from decamping?

Don't tell me about APC/Oshiomole begging them. We all know that it's natural for a party to want to hold on to their existing members while even trying to win more. So, nothing new in that. At the end of the day, NO ONE can prevent Saraki and co from decamping. I can't wait for him to decamp honestly.

Na you wey he dey use your emotion play I pity.

[/s]
It's Another Bmc media Thrash

bedspread:
[s][/s]
It's Another Bmc media Thrash

Only if you could reason a third of what's up there.

A simple question: why hass Saraki not left APC?

PassingShot:

Only if you could reason a third of what's up there.

i went tru the whole Thrash sir

PassingShot:
Any keen watcher of political developments in recent time must be wondering why Saraki and his co-conspirators have not still defected from APC despite numerous indications to that effect. We have heard and read many ultimatums and threats coming from the camp of these fair-weather politicians about their impending defection to PDP with no or little action. It's on this basis I decided to analyze the situation and come to the conclusion that these politicians may not defect after all.

The first question for a defecting politician or camp is "what do I/we stand to gain if I/we defect?
In answering this question, each and every member of the r-APC/n-PDP must have compared their current situation to what is possible in PDP or other party they choose to defect to. For example, in the case of Saraki who is the arrow-head of the group, he must have realized that the best that can happen to him in PDP is what he already has in APC - the Senate Presidency. On the flip side, defecting to PDP/CUPP does not guarantee him that position should APC win majority of the seats in the 9th Senate. So, he will want to only make noise and "shake table" for APC-led FG to go easy on his real sin (conniving with PDP to win the SP and trading the DSP position in the process) and alleged sin of arming deadly gang which was arrested for the killings during the Offa robbery of April. Others including Kwankwaso, Sheu Sanni, Hunkunyi et al are in worse situation than Saraki in the sense that they know winning an APC candidate anointed by PMB in their respective senatorial district is a herculean task. So, they'd reason it's better to stay put and use threat of defection to get an automatic ticket to return in 2019.

In opposition, Saraki will most likely win his senatorial district and possibly win Kwara (60% to APC's 40% in my opinion) for PDP but that's as far as he can go because he has no influence or strong followership outside his state to dent PMB's huge cult-like following in the North. He knows he can't win any contest against APC's Buhari in 2019 and so would not even dare to attempt it for the loss of his senate seat.

To many online warriors shouting Buhari is a tyrant and all the hogwash, those of us who really wanted change are not disappointed in his stance to bring anyone who has committed a crime to book irrespective of their political standing. Should the president say that Saraki should not be questioned for alleged sins because he is in APC or the SP? This was part of what brought Nigeria to where it is and you want us to continue in similar way? This was the way of PDP in the 16 years it ruled and we condemned it day and night but because of blind politicking, some of you want it to continue for some weird reason. Again, if Saraki is not questioned, you will turn around to say "all sins are forgiven once you join APC". What do you want, you confused lot?


Lastly, if Saraki is not a coward using emotions and gullibility of his online supporters to curry sympathy, there can't be a better time to defect with his group from APC to wherever they like. I mean, what is the point in remaining in a party you claim is not treating you fairly for 3.5years and counting? Is APC holding a gun to Saraki's head (and his co-travelers) and preventing them from decamping?

Don't tell me about APC/Oshiomole begging them. We all know that it's natural for a party to want to hold on to their existing members while even trying to win more. So, nothing new in that. At the end of the day, NO ONE can prevent Saraki and co from decamping. I can't wait for him to decamp honestly.

Na you wey he dey use your emotion play I pity.

My sentiments exactly.
Nice article.

Funny how Buhari keeps showing himself 6month to the end of his tenure, there was indication that Saraki and others would defect on Wednesday hence the whole arrest thing, same thing that got him jailed by babangida and co, he is repeating. You can't fight everyone and leave you psychophant praise singers, this all was leads to a terrible end. Should Buhari ends his tenure either 2019 or 2023 he and his family would have a lot of people closing up on them

[s]

iammo:
Funny how Buhari keeps showing himself 6month to the end of his tenure, there was indication that Saraki and others would defect on Wednesday hence the whole arrest thing, same thing that got him jailed by babangida and co, he is repeating. You can't fight everyone and leave you psychophant praise singers, this all was leads to a terrible end. Should Buhari ends his tenure either 2019 or 2023 he and his family would have a lot of people closing up on them

[/s]

Trash!

History will have it that Buhari shake the unshakable law makers

CilicMarin:




Trash!

Lol more people hailed him during the military era, but when the chips were down for him nobody cared about him or his family, he lost his mother during his incarceration a lot changed for him and the praise singers (people like you) left him to his cross

PassingShot:

Only if you could reason a third of what's up there.

A simple question: why hass Saraki not left APC?

Because he is smartest and wants to cause terminal damage at the most audacious moment!

CilicMarin:
If Buhari ceded his seat for me just for a week.. Saraki would been a goner. His support base are just the ever useless ipob yoots and their idiotic party-PDP.

Only Saraki?, ogbeni you are NOT ready to help this country, I will bring Rawlings here, a lot of people JUST need to die for this country to move forward.
You Need to READ about the origin of communism, and watch a lot of TRADITIONAL Korean drama series like Empress ki, Jong de Jeon, of recent master of the mask, and host of others.
The so called leaders are SELFISH, and this is everywhere in the world.
It is people like J.J Rawlings, Stalin, Mao Tse Tung who understand how to deal ruthlessly with greedy leadership.
Did you see the current president of Russia?, Russia is no longer a communist country but, try nonsense and blame yourself.

CilicMarin:
If Buhari ceded his seat for me just for a week.. Saraki would been a goner. His support base are just the ever useless ipob yoots and their idiotic party-PDP.

This here is the reason you can never go near any leadership position in your lifetime.


Manage your BMC job well first.

Daft analysis. Trash.
So why is Saraki and his deputy under house arrest?
APC and Buhari are forcefully preventing Saraki s defection.

Mumu post

Zombies no get sense Tru tru

Write another article on why the party is begging him/them, not to defect.

Don't tell me it's natural to beg. They shouldn't beg them and let's see

@op, you read my mind. It baffles why the Buffon and his co are still dangling. If they are brave enough let them go as the way nPDP deserted.

Op this your write up is not for all Nigerians but for sensible and intelligent ones.
Keep it up!

iammo:
Funny how Buhari keeps showing himself 6month to the end of his tenure, there was indication that Saraki and others would defect on Wednesday hence the whole arrest thing, same thing that got him jailed by babangida and co, he is repeating. You can't fight everyone and leave you psychophant praise singers, this all was leads to a terrible end. Should Buhari ends his tenure either 2019 or 2023 he and his family would have a lot of people closing up on them

They can defect even from detention

MR op you just showed that you a political nonentity. What goes on in party politics goes beyond what you read on the news, Saraki is a big wig and great asset to APC if you doubt me, ask yourself why didn’t APC beg Atiku to stay put? It is because he is not relevant in Nigeria political arena. So wake up oga, the APC executives knows way better than You do