The Buhari Campaign’s analysis of last Tuesday’s defections in the National Assembly also posited that the President won by large margins without the support of those politicians who moved yesterday as it argued that the President did not need them to win his 2015 election and as such, would not need them again.

The Buhari Campaign, in the analysis provided to Vanguard by its Director of Strategic Communications, Mr. Festus Keyamo, SAN, also deposed that the President is making significant gains in several places he lost woefully in the past, notably in the South-South and in the South-East.

The assertions had earlier been dismissed by the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP which through its spokesman Mr. Kola Ologbondiyan described the defections as a signature tune for popular misgivings against the Muhammadu Buhari administration.

Keyamo’s analysis

“First of all is that I am not disparaging those who have decided to cross. I am not going to disparage them or belittle their influence. I can only wish them luck in their individual endeavours. As to how their defection will affect the chances of President Muhammadu Buhari, I will say that from the demographics we have, from the historic figures we have and from the present realities that we know, it will have little or no impact on the chances of President Muhammadu Buhari.

“These are the reasons: In 2015, in those states where President Buhari had the largest number of votes that actually tilted the scale in his favour in most of those states, there were either PDP governors or PDP senators. In Bauchi for instance, you had a PDP governor and PDP senators. In Kaduna State, you had PDP senators, PDP governor and a vice-president from Kaduna State. In Jigawa, you had a PDP governor, PDP senators. In Gombe you had a sitting PDP governor, sitting senators and the President won decisively.

“In Kebbi, you had a PDP governor, PDP senator and the President won. In Kogi you had a PDP governor and PDP senators and the President won. In Benue, also, you had a PDP governor and PDP Senate president and the President won.

“In Plateau, he did not win, but made a very good showing and there were sitting PDP senators and governor at that time.

In 2015, the President won many states. In spite of the absence of the structure of a sitting governor and senators, he won decisively.

“Now you have a situation where most of these states and more states, where the President has a sitting governor of APC and you also have senators of APC except one or two that may have defected now. Apart from Kwara, there is no state that had a total defection of all the senators.

“So, you can see that in all those states where one or two senators defected, it is not that they wanted to go, but because they needed to go because the local circumstances and politics did not give them a chance and a choice and if the local circumstances did not give you a chance it means that the tide of local circumstance and politics is against you.

“And if the local circumstances and politics is against you and because in all these cases the governors deliberately allowed them to go that means that for every of such defections there is a calculation of an easy and equal replacement if not better replacement.

“It means therefore that what you see as a loss is actually a gain to the President’s chances. When a party allows you to go when you don’t want to go you should understand that in their local calculation you are of less value than the person they want to use to replace you. So, we may be in for a monumental landslide for President Buhari in 2019.”

“In places where you thought the APC may have lost grounds, there are equal and better places where the APC has made tremendous grounds that will make up for those places where you think they may have lost ground.

“For instance in the eastern part of Nigeria, the heavyweights that are coming into the party, people are not talking of them. Chief Jim Nwobodo, Orji Uzor Kalu, Ken Nnamani, Arthur Eze, Hope Uzodinma and in Anambra State where APC was not a factor before, APC came second in the last governorship election and PDP came third.

“In Anambra State Buhari scored 17,000 votes and in the last governorship election 96,000 and remember PDP scored 660,000 during the 2015 election.

“In the South-South we are making inroads and we retained Edo. We have two senators in Rivers and in Cross River one, and Akwa Ibom has one senator and the state is shaking.

“Even people think that he has lost support in the Middle Belt which I think is not true and all those states in the South-South will easily cover up for that.

“So from all the pluses are 80% and the minuses are about 20%. So in the last three years everything taken together if the losses were to be white and the gains to be red, if you mix them together there will be more of the reds than the whites.”

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/why-defections-wont-hurt-buharis-chances-campaign-organisation/amp/

Ok

Good analysis.

[b]*Re: Defection from APC to PDP and others – Another apt reaction from Barrister Raji Stephen T. Adekunle*

Obj once said of FFK that if you give him food, he would sing for you. Someone just reminded us that Jonathan had predicted in 2015 that all the PDP decampees who joined Buhari's APC would soon be driven back to PDP by hunger.

These are people who control more than 50% of the nations income in the form of bogus salaries and allowances, constituency projects, budget padding etc. Yet Jonathan predicted that they would be driven back to PDP by hunger. In a single day, over 60 legislators confirmed the prophecy of Jonathan. Obviously, Jonathan knew what kept them in his party, "yams".

It's like these people are not even afraid to let us know that the reason they are running helter skelter is not for the good of Nigeria or anyone but their daily bread. Curiously, you are still celebrating them.

Who did this to us for Christ's sake? I was once disturbed by some policies of this government and was almost regretting voting them into power until I began to see Jonathan running from pillar to post. He rushed to IBB in Minna to hold nocturnal meetings.

I saw OBJ running all over the country to hold meetings and mend fences with old sworn enemies, from Afenifere to Otuoke, from Damkwambo to Bode George. He even recapitulated to rejoin the PDP whose membership card he openly tore and swore never to participate in politics. He initially told Nigerians that he was leading a 3rd force that would not be political, but was quick to transform same to ADC.

He was recruiting members all over the country with an unbelievable desperation. I quickly borrowed myself some senses. I began to wonder whether these people are subjecting themselves to all these discomfort because of the love for the nation, the masses or their selfish interests.

Anyone who chooses to be fooled by these people should have himself and his creator to blame for his foolishness.[/b]

The stupid Keyamo said President is making significant gains in several places he lost woefully in the past, notably in the South-South and in the South-East.

Which south-south or south-east? The one in his village?or the one I know where almost everybody can't wait to vote him out?

YOU GUYS DO NOT NEED TO SAY ANYTHING, SINCE YOU KNOW VERY WELL THAT THE DEFECTION WILL NOT HURT IS CHANCES, THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING BY TH END IF THE YEAR APC WILL BE NO MORE EVEN BUHARI WILL BE LOOKING FOR A PARTY TO DEFECT TO

time will tell.

Till then

Hello guys retreat, I say retreat. BMC news over! i repeat BMC news over!..... loL

This keyami is a very big fool .He is actaually contradicting himself by saying Buhari won in states with PDP key politicians in 2015 and now is equating Buhari making inroads in teh SS/SE by the defection of key politicians.hABA

Stop analyzing what you don't know.

lordtosan:
The stupid Keyamo said President is making significant gains in several places he lost woefully in the past, notably in the South-South and in the South-East.

Which south-south or south-east? The one in his village?or the one I know where almost everybody can't wait to vote him out?

APC need to get rid of all these corruption infected PDP polithievcians and get new breed of clean Nigerians that reason like Buhari, till then there won't be any meaningful development

gare:
YOU GUYS DO NOT NEED TO SAY ANYTHING, SINCE YOU KNOW VERY WELL THAT THE DEFECTION WILL NOT HURT IS CHANCES, THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING BY TH END IF THE YEAR APC WILL BE NO MORE EVEN BUHARI WILL BE LOOKING FOR A PARTY TO DEFECT TO

ngene will Defect to ANPP with Buhari.

BMO/BSO instead of being an advocacy group that will advice the government of the day on how to move away from all the disastrous policies of governance that have had catastrophic consequences on the lives of the Nigerian populace including the senseless lost of precious lives is only obsessed with a calculations of an imaginary political fortune for a clueless president.
No wonder Nigeria is where it's today.

madridguy:
Stop analyzing what you don't know.

He said senators defection to PDP is not important yet he is saying APC is aking inroads in SS/SE through defection of PDP senators.Is that not contradictory

lordtosan:
The stupid Keyamo said President is making significant gains in several places he lost woefully in the past, notably in the South-South and in the South-East.

Which south-south or south-east? The one in his village?or the one I know where almost everybody can't wait to vote him out?

The thing tire me. They where counting on the arranged rally Rochas did for them some weeks ago with Imsu, futo and alvan students who only went to collect 1-2k under after all is our money. lolzzz,if only he knew what has been cooking since 2015.

OK

“Even people think that he has lost support in the Middle Belt which I think is not true and all those states in the South-South will easily cover up for that."

So Festus Keyamo in his paranoid mind have the effontry to insult the sensibility of a beleaguered middle belt region still grappling with the never unending harvest of death with this statement
Ngwaanu Middle Belt & South South over to you.

madridguy:
Stop analyzing what you don't know.

Bros, you that know, analyze and tell us. I repeat and very strongly, Buhari will get less the votes in the south-south and south-east than he got in 2015 in this coming election.

Ogoni failed environmental cleaning promise in South-South and the Python dance in Southeast that saw the inhuman brutality of the Igbo's will always be fresh in the minds of everyone.

It's well.


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Okay

Now I believe the saying that says " lawyers are lair"

Then why all the fuss! Why are u guys jittery?

Same lies they fed gej



He is in the village now

NgeneUkwenu aka lauretta Onochie, better dont have high bp cos of the defections, stop quoting stupid Keyamo's words, he is irrelevant, we all the know he is desperate for bubu to win cos we all know he will be stripped of the SAN he acquired dubiously WHEN Buhari looses next year.

when you don get Rigging pattern wey una won use

Nothing left to see again. Sycophancy everywhere


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Keep deceiving him like they deceived jonathan

CRY ME A RIVER!... agonies of clowns trapped in a sinking ship!


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