Beress:

My friend you can not be marketing your albino Samuel Anyanwu in your state and demarketing PDP at the center... You are simply causing more political harm to the young man

His Samdaddy will defect to a mushroom party soon. He will lose woefully in the pdp primary.

tuniski:

No, he won't and he can't!

Even GEJ in 2011 had 25%+ in the NW. With northern candidate as main challenger, PDP won't go below 25%.

Stop this nonsense.i have given you the statistics before,you still persist in ignorance.Total votes in the north west in 2015 was 8.4 million.buhari had 7.1 million while goodluck polled 1.3 million which is less than 20%.he had in 2011 anyway but not in 2015.please be guided.

Please including how INEC and security agents will rig according to the zone.

kabrudrapist:
This analysis is more credible and realistic than that senatordave1 beer parlour analysis.

Why not bring your main moniker? Her analysis is borne out of hatred,sentiments and hasty generalizations.she hasnt taken note of different situations in each states,zones,defections,popularity of candidates,current state of the polity,party structures,rigging power,reach.she didnt take note of the fact that an incumbent inflates votes in his zones right from 2003-2015.

Jombojombo:
[s]Good day dear nairalanders...

Now that is about five months to next years general election, anyone who wants to be realistic will agree with me that the winner of that election will surely be either APC or PDP. That is just the simple truth!

Looking at the latest political development in the land and on the expectation of more political development, I have projected the following to be the voting pattern of the six geopolitical zones come 2019.

NB: This is purely my humble opinion based on my study of the current political situation.

Constructive contrary opinions are welcome

South East
APC = 10%
PDP = 85%
Others = 5%

South South
APC = 25%
PDP = 70%
Others = 5%

South West
APC = 50%
PDP = 40%
Others = 10%

North Central
APC = 40%
PDP = 55%
Others = 5%

North East
APC = 50%
PDP = 45%
Others = 5%

North West
APC = 70%
PDP = 25%
Others = 5%

This conclusion is arrived at on the basis that both APC & PDP will be presenting Northern candidates

Brief Analysis

South East
Without any doubt, we all will agree that my Igbo brothers will not only vote for PDP, but will vote angrily against Buhari. Why?
The reason is simple... Buhari has so much marginalised the Igbos since his inception of office. This is a fact that is visible to the blind

South South
This is another support base for the PDP. But with the defection of Akpabio and based on the fact that one of the states (Edo) is under APC, their (APC) performance here will not be as bad as it will be in the south east

South West
The zone that is believed to be the most sophisticated. One thing about this zone is that you may not know where they stand until after the election. That notwithstanding however, with the influence of Tinubu, APC will still maintain a lead in this zone, though with a slim margin.

North Central
This zone used to be controlled by the APC until the recent defection of two Governors to the PDP (Kwara & Benue). It is also being rumored that Niger State Governor (being Atiku's loyalist) will soon follow suit.
More so, Nasarawa has always been won by the PDP since 1999 as far as presidential election is concerned. The remaining two states (Kogi & Plateau) though under APC might still vote in favour of PDP considering the fact that the citizens here are not core Northerners(I believe you know what I mean). Hence, PDP will maintain a lead here.

North East
No doubt, this is one of the major support base zone for the APC.
However, with the fact that PDP controls two states (Taraba & Gombe) in this zone, and also on the rumors that Adamawa state Governor may soon switch party, and on the premise that PDP's Presidential candidate will be from this zone, APC's lead in the zone come 2019 will be marginal.

North West
Do I need to make any analysis here?
APC surely have the remote control for this zone at the moment. No doubt!
Notwithstanding the fact that Sokoto State Governor just decamped to the PDP and also Kwakwanso, APC will maintain a comfortable lead here come 2019

Summary
Based on my empirical analysis above, I see PDP wining the 2019 Presidential election!


You can share your view! [/s]

Seun
Lalasticla
Mydn44

Ipob analysis

This is trash analysis. The moment i saw a high mark for PDP in NE, I gave up your analysis.

senatordave1:

Stop this nonsense.i have given you the statistics before,you still persist in ignorance.Total votes in the north west in 2015 was 8.4 million.buhari had 7.1 million while goodluck polled 1.3 million which is less than 20%.he had in 2011 anyway but not in 2015.please be guided.

Is 2011 same as 2015? You so fixated with the accidental victory of buhari in 2015 so much so even when 2011 is referred, your mind tells you 2015.

Be guided and read and comprehend well before responding.

For your information as of today APC has made serious in roads in SS. The only sure region PDP can boast of is SE( borne out of ethnic sentiments)and probably NC( herdsmen crises, even at that still remains in the balance considering states like kwara and Niger).

senatordave1:

Why not bring your main moniker? Her analysis is borne out of hatred,sentiments and hasty generalizations.she hasnt taken note of different situations in each states,zones,defections,popularity of candidates,current state of the polity,party structures,rigging power,reach.she didnt take note of the fact that an incumbent inflates votes in his zones right from 2003-2015.

You will learn new political lessons and realities come 2019.

bender79:
For your information as of today APC has made serious in roads in SS. The only sure region PDP can boast of is SE( borne out of ethnic sentiments)and probably NC( herdsmen crises, even at that still remains in the balance considering states like kwara and Niger).

Kwara is now solidly pdp. Only Niger is not pdp in NC.

As Apc is making inroads into SS/SE, it has already lost NC while PDP is gaining momentum in NE/NW.
The party with the net gain wins come 2019 especially with the groundswell of discontented citizenry registering at an exciting rate.

tuniski:

PDP had it worst performance in the entire country zone by zone in 2015. Prior to that, Buhari was blown out 3 times by OBJ,yar Aua and GEJ.
Don't over rate Buhari 2015 was the exception not the norm.

As a result of the card reader that was introduced, have they managed to recover after?

senatordave1:

Why not bring your main moniker? Her analysis is borne out of hatred,sentiments and hasty generalizations.she hasnt taken note of different situations in each states,zones,defections,popularity of candidates,current state of the polity,party structures,rigging power,reach.she didnt take note of the fact that an incumbent inflates votes in his zones right from 2003-2015.

Senatordave i don't hate you but in one of your predictions you said that apc will win an area which I know their voting pattern by the back of my hand. Ever since then, I view your analysis suspect.

michealewela:

As a result of the card reader that was introduced, have they managed to recover after?

They have recovered and apc is very jittery!

The truth is that no matter how good the analysis may be, the APC and President Buhari will never lose the election in 2019 even if all Nigerians vote against them. The Nigerian police, army, SSS and INEC have already been primed to ensure APC wins. What happened in Edo, Ondo and Ekiti states were dress rehearsals for 2019. The same will happen in the following states: Osun, Rivers, Imo, Akwa Ibom, and Benue. Even if they lose, they will never accept defeat. How I wish Nigerians have an answer to this impunity of APC.

Myjanuzaj:


Ipob analysis

in yodas language:

bunch of rubbish that is....

PDP will emerge the third most powerful party after 2019. The PARTY is over rated. I don't even think Delta and Rivers are sure for them, honestly.

Jombojombo:
Good day dear nairalanders...

Now that is about five months to next years general election, anyone who wants to be realistic will agree with me that the winner of that election will surely be either APC or PDP. That is just the simple truth!

Looking at the latest political development in the land and on the expectation of more political development, I have projected the following to be the voting pattern of the six geopolitical zones come 2019.

NB: This is purely my humble opinion based on my study of the current political situation.

Constructive contrary opinions are welcome

South East
APC = 10%
PDP = 85%
Others = 5%

South South
APC = 25%
PDP = 70%
Others = 5%

South West
APC = 50%
PDP = 40%
Others = 10%

North Central
APC = 40%
PDP = 55%
Others = 5%

North East
APC = 50%
PDP = 45%
Others = 5%

North West
APC = 70%
PDP = 25%
Others = 5%

This conclusion is arrived at on the basis that both APC & PDP will be presenting Northern candidates

Brief Analysis

South East
Without any doubt, we all will agree that my Igbo brothers will not only vote for PDP, but will vote angrily against Buhari. Why?
The reason is simple... Buhari has so much marginalised the Igbos since his inception of office. This is a fact that is visible to the blind

South South
This is another support base for the PDP. But with the defection of Akpabio and based on the fact that one of the states (Edo) is under APC, their (APC) performance here will not be as bad as it will be in the south east

South West
The zone that is believed to be the most sophisticated. One thing about this zone is that you may not know where they stand until after the election. That notwithstanding however, with the influence of Tinubu, APC will still maintain a lead in this zone, though with a slim margin.

North Central
This zone used to be controlled by the APC until the recent defection of two Governors to the PDP (Kwara & Benue). It is also being rumored that Niger State Governor (being Atiku's loyalist) will soon follow suit.
More so, Nasarawa has always been won by the PDP since 1999 as far as presidential election is concerned. The remaining two states (Kogi & Plateau) though under APC might still vote in favour of PDP considering the fact that the citizens here are not core Northerners(I believe you know what I mean). Hence, PDP will maintain a lead here.

North East
No doubt, this is one of the major support base zone for the APC.
However, with the fact that PDP controls two states (Taraba & Gombe) in this zone, and also on the rumors that Adamawa state Governor may soon switch party, and on the premise that PDP's Presidential candidate will be from this zone, APC's lead in the zone come 2019 will be marginal.

North West
Do I need to make any analysis here?
APC surely have the remote control for this zone at the moment. No doubt!
Notwithstanding the fact that Sokoto State Governor just decamped to the PDP and also Kwakwanso, APC will maintain a comfortable lead here come 2019

Summary
Based on my empirical analysis above, I see PDP wining the 2019 Presidential election!



Seun
Lalasticla
Mydn44

Buhari and the APC is going no where,maybe PDP will rule Biafran republic.

Amacaco:
The truth is that no matter how good the analysis may be, the APC and President Buhari will never lose the election in 2019 even if all Nigerians vote against them. The Nigerian police, army, SSS and INEC have already been primed to ensure APC wins. What happened in Edo, Ondo and Ekiti states were dress rehearsals for 2019. The same will happen in the following states: Osun, Rivers, Imo, Akwa Ibom, and Benue. Even if they lose, they will never accept defeat. How I wish Nigerians have an answer to this impunity of APC.

Thank you.

tuniski:

Kwara is now solidly pdp. Only Niger is not pdp in NC.

As Apc is making inroads into SS/SE, it has already lost NC while PDP is gaining momentum in NE/NW.
The party with the net gain wins come 2019 especially with the groundswell of discontented citizenry registering at an exciting rate.

You have no idea my friend. You can take a trip to illorin and make your research. People are willing to vote out anything saraki is involved with.

bender79:
You have no idea my friend. You can take a trip to illorin and make your research. People are willing to vote out anything saraki is involved with.

That is my state and I can tell you for free saraki will deliver kwara to PDP sak!

tuniski:

That is my state and I can tell you for free saraki will deliver kwara to PDP sak!

Presidential election analysis the true picture.
SE- Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi and Abia going for PDP at 70% and APC at 30% votes cast in the region
SS- Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Cross River, Akwa Ibom going for PDP at 70%, Edo going for APC at 30% votes cast in the region.
SW- Lagos, Osun, Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo going for APC at 60%, Oyo going for PDP at 40% of total votes cast in the region
NW- Kano, katsina, Jigawa, Kaduna Sokoto,Zamfara, Kebbi going for APC at 70%, PDP at 30% of total votes cast in the region
NE- Borno, Bauchi, Adamawa, Yobe, going for APC at 80%, Taraba, Gombe going for PDP at 20% total votes cast in the region.
NC- Benue, Plateau, Kogi going for PDP at 40%, Kwara, Niger, Nassarawa going for APC at 60% of total votes cast in the region.
Abuja FCT- 60% going for PDP, 40% going for APC.
TAKE THESE ANALYSIS TO THE BANK ANYDAY!!

LudaChriz:

I was also thinking that same way

Op 70% for Buhari in the North West is over estimated. With Tambuwal and Kwakwamso on the side of PDP, and on the fact that the PDP candidate will be a Northerner, Buhari will surely not have it so easy this time around in the North West as it were in 2015

you are very correct since the three of them will be on the ballot at the same time!continue to give yourselves false hope with your jaundiced permutation

krendo:
This is my take

People are reading into by-elections too much

The general election is a different ball game

Buhari can not win a free and fair election in 2019. APC know this and are planning to use INEC and security forces to rig the election

But this much is fact. Presidency goes the direction the middle belt or North central votes. Buhari has lost north central

And this one thinks he have sense

bender79:
Presidential election analysis the true picture.
SE- Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi and Abia going for PDP at 70% and APC at 30% votes cast in the region
SS- Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Cross River, Akwa Ibom going for PDP at 70%, Edo going for APC at 30% votes cast in the region.
SW- Lagos, Osun, Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo going for APC at 60%, Oyo going for PDP at 40% of total votes cast in the region
NW- Kano, katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto,Zamfara, Kebbi going for APC at 70%, PDP at 30% of total votes cast in the region
NE- Borno, Bauchi, Adamawa, Yobe, going for APC at 80%, Taraba, Gombe going for PDP at 20% total votes cast in the region.
NC- Benue, Plateau, Kogi going for PDP at 40%, Kwara, Niger, Kaduna going for APC at 60% of total votes cast in the region.
Abuja FCT- 60% going for PDP, 40% going for APC.
TAKE THESE ANALYSIS TO THE BANK ANYDAY!!

Oyo and Kogi are not going PDP. They will follow the Kwara State trend and go for APC.
Kogi State especially, the APC don't deserve a win but they will take it.
Benue and Plateau may be won by PDP but the margins will be "useless", if you know what i mean.
APC will win Ebonyi and Abia, They will also do well in Enugu State at the Presidential elections.

@OP, in Falz voice, "THIS IS NIGERIA". What happens in Nigeria, stays in Nigeria.

bender79:
Presidential election analysis the true picture.
SE- Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi and Abia going for PDP at 70% and APC at 30% votes cast in the region
SS- Rivers, Bayelsa, Delta, Cross River, Akwa Ibom going for PDP at 70%, Edo going for APC at 30% votes cast in the region.
SW- Lagos, Osun, Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo going for APC at 60%, Oyo going for PDP at 40% of total votes cast in the region
NW- Kano, katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto,Zamfara, Kebbi going for APC at 70%, PDP at 30% of total votes cast in the region
NE- Borno, Bauchi, Adamawa, Yobe, going for APC at 80%, Taraba, Gombe going for PDP at 20% total votes cast in the region.
NC- Benue, Plateau, Kogi going for PDP at 40%, Kwara, Niger, Kaduna going for APC at 60% of total votes cast in the region.
Abuja FCT- 60% going for PDP, 40% going for APC.
TAKE THESE ANALYSIS TO THE BANK ANYDAY!!

You tried.
NC. Only Niger goes to apc with Kogi fluid cos the governorship election will be staggered in novermber else it is straight PDP.
Spot on on FCT.
NE: adamawa,gombe,taraba pdp should Atiku pick the ticket with 40% in. Bauchi/yobe/borno.
SW: 50:50. Overall with pdp winning ekiti,ondo and oyo.
NW: kaduna 50:50, the rest apc win 70%. Where voters intimidation is minimal, pdp will get 35% in NW.

tuniski:

You tried.
NC. Only Niger goes to apc with Kogi fluid cos the governorship election will be staggered in novermber else it is straight PDP.
Spot on on FCT.
NE: adamawa,gombe,taraba pdp should Atiku pick the ticket with 40% in. Bauchi/yobe/borno.
SW: 50:50. Overall with pdp winning ekiti,ondo and oyo.
NW: kaduna 50:50, the rest apc win 70%. Where voters intimidation is minimal, pdp will get 35% in NW.

Not true, your analysis is far off

tuniski:

You tried.
NC. Only Niger goes to apc with Kogi fluid cos the governorship election will be staggered in novermber else it is straight PDP.
Spot on on FCT.
NE: adamawa,gombe,taraba pdp should Atiku pick the ticket with 40% in. Bauchi/yobe/borno.
[s]SW: 50:50. Overall with pdp winning ekiti,ondo and oyo.[/s]
NW: kaduna 50:50, the rest apc win 70%. Where voters intimidation is minimal, pdp will get 35% in NW.

PDP can't get 30% in southwest let alone 50%,

haffaze777:

PDP can't get 30% in southwest let alone 50%,

You wish

haffaze777:


PDP can't get 30% in southwest let alone 50%,

Hehhehehe stop engaging in self deceit. SW is too close to call. Even lagos will b Contested Vigorously!