It matters a lot to our politicians what the foreign press or agencies say about them, especially about their electoral chances. If foreigners, particularly those in London or New York, say something nice, our politicians take it to heart and repost as far and wide as they can. If not, they get mad. In recent times, forecasts about the outcome of the 2019 elections by the Economic Intelligence Unit of The Economist of London, and the United States Institute of Peace, have been hotly debated. In its two forecasts so far, The Economist favoured former Vice President and presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Atiku Abubakar, to win. The newspaper said its predictions were based on the promise of Atiku to re-invigorate the economy with pro-market policies. Also, it said the election might favour Atiku because of the failure of the government of President Muhammadu Buhari to deliver on its promises of jobs, as well as growing poverty and insecurity in central Nigeria. The Atiku camp promptly seized on the predictions as endorsement of sorts and, clinking glasses in a mock celebratory toast, smiled to one another in excitement that victory might be closer than once thought. It wasn’t long before the Buhari camp also got something to cheer – or so it would seem. The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) issued a report on a survey in Nigeria focused on preventing electoral violence. Unfortunately, those eager for an answer to The Economist, put a spin on the USIP report to suggest that it predicted likely victory for Buhari next year. The oracle’s nemesis But seriously, there’s nothing in The Economist or USIP or a dozen other electoral predictions by the foreign press or agencies that we should be taking too seriously. We may not dismiss the reports as nonsense, but I think we must grow up and stop treating them like gospel. How was it that these same editorial oracles didn’t see the 2007-08 financial crises coming? In fact, if some of the forecasts at the time were to be believed, the world was going through its most glorious era ever. It was boom, boom, boom and the global financial system was supposedly awash with enough credit to meet every need and to spare. Yet, just when everyone thought it was peace and safety, the bubble burst, leaving the world in one of the worst financial crises in decades. Two years ago, the oracles bit the dust again, big time. It happened in the political arena in the US, right inside the oracles’ shrine. Donald Trump was supposed to be a joke. That was virtually what all the forecasts said and even those in Trump’s campaign believed it and sometimes treated one another like jokers. Hilary Clinton was going to be the 45th President of the United States of America, shattering the last vestiges of the glass ceiling in a historic landslide. Well, it didn’t happen, and the oracles conveniently invented the angry white middle class voter as the reason. Not that this effigy ever went anywhere in the eight years of Barack Obama. It just happened that the oracles couldn’t figure it out.

https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/11/losing-sleep-over-the-economist-other-publications/

...