I think a lot of people are confusing the wild support Jonathan enjoyed in the wake of the Yar'adua saga due to the need to uphold the constitution as it is.

And

What will be a real assessment of Jonathan's abilities in 2011 if he is to be elected President in a free and fair election.


People are not convinced in Jonathan's abilities, it is looking likely that Jonathan may require massive rigging if he is to win the elections.

kobikwelu:


^^^^^

that allowed OBJ handpick governors from the north (even atiku lost in his state)
that allowed him de-northernize the army heirachy??
that allowed him de-northernize nnpc heirachy

But you fail to realise that Jonathan is no OBJ and they are running the country at different times under different conditions.

mikeansy:

I think a lot of people are confusing the wild support Jonathan enjoyed in the wake of the Yar'adua saga due to the need to uphold the constitution as it is.

And

What will be a real assessment of Jonathan's abilities in 2011 if he is to be elected President in a free and fair election.


People are not convinced in Jonathan's abilities, it is looking likely that Jonathan may require massive rigging if he is to win the elections.

Bravo !!!!! Precisely what I have been saying tirelessly. If Nigerian votes are allowed to count , I think Nigerians will vote in Ribadu and/or Donald Duke before they gamble with Jonathan who , from all visible accounts, is "more of the same".

For the record , I am a die-hard Donald Duke fan. One of my greatest dissapointment was seeing him brushed aside unfairly for Yar Adua in 2006 because the political establishment was working to a rehearsed script . If I believe that Duke actually enjoys the backing of our duplicitous political establishment then I would rate him as a better candidate than Ribadu anyday.

In 2006 I was all over the place supporting Duke same as many young and politically naive Americans won Obama the Presidency with how they massively endorsed him as the messiah and the "coolest Presidential candidate" ever . We all saw, in contrast to the American Presidential election ,  what happened . A cruel and self-serving system that does not at all believe in merit disgracefully churned up Yar Adua to the detriment of Nigeria.


I will not underestimate the sycophantic political structure of Nigeria ever again. The same structure , even with populist noise , left Gani high and dry on many occasions. Soyinka is now telling Nigerians to desist from disturbing him if they will not fight for their votes because he knows it is all noise from the populace and eventual capitulation when the fireworks begin .

Nothing has changed and Nigerians are not suddenly 'kamikaze' patriots overnights. If it is likely that the system , despite populist and duplicitous noise , has endorsed a Northerner then I would rather it is Ribadu than IBB, Atiku, Gusau, Buhari, Yerima, Yuguda, Goje , Saraki or Shekarau!!!!

We should see Duke or Fashola , if they both remain politically relevant , as serious Presidential candidates come 2015.

For now , rather than go for what is unrealistic (Duke), we should settle for someone acceptable to the system who will represent the type of expedient progress that will ensure that the likes of Donald Duke and Gov Fashola have a realistic chance of leading Nigeria in future when the rancour of zoning is not so acidic and bitter as it is now. In 2015 , with what we are going through now, no one will be talking about zoning if the likes of Duke and Fashola decide to run. Even as I detest zoning, As things stand , I think it is too late to try and abolish it because those who shape events in Nigeria (certainly not the voters) may have made up their minds in favour of it despite insincere noise that will lead naive and desperate Jonathan to make many duplicitous Nigerians billionaires overnight.

Gbawe:

For now , rather than go for what is unrealistic (Duke), we should settle for someone acceptable to the system who will represent the type of expedient progress that will ensure that the likes of Donald Duke and Gov Fashola have a realistic chance of leading Nigeria in future when the rancour of zoning is not so acidic and bitter as it is now. In 2015 , with what we are going through now, no one will be talking about zoning if the likes of Duke and Fashola decide to run. Even as I detest zoning, As things stand , I think it is too late to try and abolish it because those who shape events in Nigeria (certainly not the voters) may have made up their minds in favour of it despite insincere noise that will lead naive and desperate Jonathan to make many duplicitous Nigerians billionaires overnight.

You are still confused, but I see you are growing some understanding of how to operate in practical ways. You will slowly come round to reason and see the proper steps needed to redeem this country.

UNFORUNATELY AC AND THE OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES ARE NOT ON GROUND. WHILE THEY ARE BUSY SHOUTING ON RADIO & PERFORMING PERMUTATIONS & COMBINATIONS ON THE NET, PDP IS WORKING ON THE GROUND, MOBILISING THE MASSES. THE REAL VOTERS ARE IN THE VILLAGES. THEY DO NOT HAVE INTERNET ACCESS. THE PDP MACHINERY ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE FOOT SOLDIERS. THESE ARE THE VOTE WINNERS, THESE ARE THE PEOPLE YOU WILL SEE AT THE POLLING BOOTHS, THESE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO WILL WAIT TO HAVE THE VOTES COUNTED. LET THE ACs, ADs, ANPPs, ARPs, ETC. BEGIN TO DO THEIR HOMEWORK NOW. NOT WHEN THE VOTES ARE COUNTED THEY WILL BEGIN TO SHOUT THAT THE ELECTIONS ARE RIGGED. THIS GOVERNMENT IS DOING EVERYTHING SO FAR POSSIBLE TO BEQUEATH ON NIGERIA A CREDIBLE POLLS. LET THE OPPOSITION ARISE AND WORK FOR VICTORY AND STOP THIS PERMUTATIONS & COMBINATIONS!

Beaf:

You are still confused, but I see you are growing some understanding of how to operate in practical ways. You will slowly come round to reason and see the proper steps needed to redeem this country.

My brother, you are the confused one . Jonathan has no appreciable political base he has developed by himself through a sagacious political career . The man has , at best , a mediocre record as a political leader. He has done nothing of note his entire career. Even now when ultra-superb performance is required Jonathan prefers to talk while doing zilch . Instead  he is disgracefully and desperately courting the support of the most ruinous hands in Nigeria and those who were his sworn enemies only yesterday (Aondoakaa) in a shameless attempt to remain President come 2011.

Soon you will see that it is you who is confused with how you are trying to fool folks to believe Jonathan has 'wide' backings when common sense and events on the ground show that unpopular, unfancied and poor-performing Jonathan will have to virtually mortgage all of Nigeria's current and future earnings to political vultures if he is to win in 2011. I don't expect that to concern someone like you. It is obvious that supporting your kinsman , to include turning a blind eye to his numerous actions that show he will be a future disaster, is paramount above anything else.

Amitex:

UNFORUNATELY AC AND THE OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES ARE NOT ON GROUND. WHILE THEY ARE BUSY SHOUTING ON RADIO & PERFORMING PERMUTATIONS & COMBINATIONS ON THE NET, PDP IS WORKING ON THE GROUND, MOBILISING THE MASSES. THE REAL VOTERS ARE IN THE VILLAGES. THEY DO NOT HAVE INTERNET ACCESS. THE PDP MACHINERY ON THE OTHER HAND HAVE FOOT SOLDIERS. THESE ARE THE VOTE WINNERS, THESE ARE THE PEOPLE YOU WILL SEE AT THE POLLING BOOTHS, THESE ARE THE PEOPLE WHO WILL WAIT TO HAVE THE VOTES COUNTED. LET THE ACs, ADs, ANPPs, ARPs, ETC. BEGIN TO DO THEIR HOMEWORK NOW. NOT WHEN THE VOTES ARE COUNTED THEY WILL BEGIN TO SHOUT THAT THE ELECTIONS ARE RIGGED. THIS GOVERNMENT IS DOING EVERYTHING SO FAR POSSIBLE TO BEQUEATH ON NIGERIA A CREDIBLE POLLS. LET THE OPPOSITION ARISE AND WORK FOR VICTORY AND STOP THIS PERMUTATIONS & COMBINATIONS!

I'm sure you will soon learn the joys of typing without touching the caps lock button.

Na So

I agree with you. I love Ribadu too but he is not a Presidential Material.

The office of President is not for angry men, Ribadu is very combative and wears his heart on his sleeve.

He will surely have good intentions but will not make a good President.

@Mikeansy
He will not make a good politician you mean?
Well, what this country needs and has been craving for,  is a combative leader, a man of action who would wear his heart on his sleeve to put our country in order. Nuhu Ribadu is the right man!

Maple:

@Mikeansy
He will not make a good politician you mean?
Well, what this country needs and has been craving for, is a combative leader, a man of action who would wear his heart on his sleeve to put our country in order. Nuhu Ribadu is the right man!

We have had combative leaders in the form of military men. They have ruled us for decades and been serial failures. All they have achieved is making the average Nigerian low self esteemed and as aggressive as a guard dog. We definitely don't need any more combative leaders.

The good things going for Ribadu are his drive, honesty and ability to reach out.

Maple:

@Mikeansy
He will not make a good politician you mean?
Well, what this country needs and has been craving for,  is a combative leader, a man of action who would wear his heart on his sleeve to put our country in order. Nuhu Ribadu is the right man!

Gosh no !!! Haven't we had enough of that with Dora Akunyili?   lol

Gbawe:

My brother, you are the confused one . Jonathan has no appreciable political base he has developed by himself through a sagacious political career . The man has , at best , a mediocre record as a political leader. He has done nothing of note his entire career. Even now when ultra-superb performance is required Jonathan prefers to talk while doing zilch . Instead  he is disgracefully and desperately courting the support of the most ruinous hands in Nigeria and those who were his sworn enemies only yesterday (Aondoakaa) in a shameless attempt to remain President come 2011.

Soon you will see that it is you who is confused with how you are trying to fool folks to believe Jonathan has 'wide' backings when common sense and events on the ground show that unpopular, unfancied and poor-performing Jonathan will have to virtually mortgage all of Nigeria's current and future earnings to political vultures if he is to win in 2011. I don't expect that to concern someone like you. It is obvious that supporting your kinsman , to include turning a blind eye to his numerous actions that show he will be a future disaster, is paramount above anything else.

So you see your hero, Dukes chances as unrealistic yet, you want to (in your words), "settle for someone acceptable to the system who will represent the type of expedient progress that will ensure that the likes of Donald Duke and Gov Fashola have a realistic chance of leading Nigeria in future when the rancour of zoning is not so acidic and bitter as it is now".

If you consider everything in the admirable statement above, write each point on a peace of paper and the factors required to attain it, you'll soon realise how confused your position is. Thats why, yesterday you supportted Yerima, today its Duke and tomorrow it might be IBB or Atiku.

Maple:

@Mikeansy
He will not make a good politician you mean?
Well, what this country needs and has been craving for,  is a combative leader, a man of action who would wear his heart on his sleeve to put our country in order. Nuhu Ribadu is the right man!

Indeed !!!! I urge folks to look at those campaigning for Jonathan so that they can understand that he will be no different to Yar Adua. Yar Adua sold his soul to so many political devils to the extent that he could not even do the smallest positive thing for Nigeria without one sponsor or the other telling him to 'pipe down' . Jonathan is now fraternising with far more criminals and enemies-of-progress than Yar Adua  had to do as per his more desperate situation of trying to fight an 11 years old arrangement in a few months by buying (with Nigeria's money) political  support for an unpopular project !!!

Ribadu , on the other hand , has the willing support of some of the most progressive Nigerian individuals you cannot 'buy' (Soyinka, Ndibe, Falana, Pastor Bakare, etc) and entities (NLF, SNG, saharareporters, etc, etc) behind him in the clearest signal that , regardless of his shortcomings, those who have always shown they want the best for Nigeria now think that Ribadu is best for Nigeria at this stage .

Beaf:

So you see your hero, Dukes chances as unrealistic yet, you want to (in your words), "settle for someone acceptable to the system who will represent the type of expedient progress that will ensure that the likes of Donald Duke and Gov Fashola have a realistic chance of leading Nigeria in future when the rancour of zoning is not so acidic and bitter as it is now".

If you consider everything in the admirable statement above, write each point on a peace of paper and the factors required to attain it, you'll soon realise how confused your position is. Thats why, yesterday you supportted Yerima, today its Duke and tomorrow it might be IBB or Atiku.

This is why I will probably ignore you in future. You are a shameless liar and distortionist far more interested in defaming the character of others falsely rather than discussing the issue at hand honestly and candidly . Your style of writing is entirely based on 'identifying' enemies and , regardless of whether they write correctly or not , chasing them around with the paramount aim of deliberately misinterpreting what they write to discredit them.

Anyone who has time can go back to the first page of this thread to see that I never supported a man I considered a vile paedophile. !!!

Below is what I wrote on page 1 of this thread in reply to your drivel. Only a bigot like you would want to whip up ethnic sentiments with the insinuation that I support Yerima when my writing clearly shows otherwise:

Good to see that you fail to comment on an incisive article to post your Yerima-focused drivel in a hasty and true-to-type attempt to discredit folks instead of discussing with them intelligently.

The point which you miss ,  in your usual obduracy , is that some in the North feels they are duty bound to support Yerima over his despicable actions because he is their "son". With such clannishly blind support for a paedophile ,  what kind of backing do you reckon a deservingly popular and charismatic Northern Presidential candidate , regardless of his Party platform , will enjoy in the region against Jonathan?

In the end , you are more like the clannish supporters of Yerima than you wish to admit. Folks like you will , smallmindedly, always see Nigeria solely from the prism of your regional origin (hence your illogical support of do-nothing-Jonathan) rather than recognise the big picture which include supporting , in the interest of Nigeria at large, the best men and women who represent what Nigeria needs currently.

Gbawe:

This is why I will probably ignore you in future. You are a shameless liar and distortionist far more interested in defaming the character of others falsely rather than discussing the issue at hand honestly and candidly . Your style of writing is entirely based on 'identifying' enemies and , regardless of whether they write correctly or not , chasing them around with the paramount aim of deliberately misinterpreting what they write to discredit them.

Anyone who has time can go back to the first page of this thread to see that I never supported a man I considered a vile paedophile. !!!

Below is what I wrote on page 1 of this thread in reply to your drivel. Only a bigot like you would want to whip up ethnic sentiments with the insinuation that I support Yerima when my writing clearly shows otherwise:

Your greatest weakness is your hot temper. You once told me I was your enemy for life over NL stuff, so no surprises. NL is an anonymouse place. You don't even know if I'm the neigbour you regularly have a beer with. Dis NL sef!

Stop sounding ridiculous.

Duke might never win any other election in his life, except in Tinapa zone.

Ribadu is not a politician per se, if he has the backing of a godfather like Tinubu did Fashola then he can rightly be factored into this, last I checked OBJ and AC werent allies, no ?

BTW, why all this hoopla about Ribadu ? Chidichris rightly pointed out areas that will grey out his inordinate ambition !

We need to stop believing our own lies, PDP would win even if it is former Speaker Buhari of the 'University of Toronto' Cert Scandal that they choose as their candidate. . .its that bad !

Beaf:

Your greatest weakness is your hot temper. You once told me I was your enemy for life over NL stuff, so no surprises. NL is an anonymouse place. You don't even know if I'm the neigbour you regularly have a beer with. Dis NL sef!

Stop sounding ridiculous.

Na lie !!! Please resurrect the thread right now or forever remain discredited. I am a happy guy and I don't go around looking for enemies. Nonetheless, I have , over the years , come to realise that a lot of Nigerians can only validate their intelligence/importance/happiness as an exponent of [b]beaf[/b]ing with others needlessly. I see it on the ground everyday , even from folks who are paid to serve, with the casual rudeness that is totally uncalled for .

You are a classic example of that. I am sure you chose the user name of Beaf because , literally, you enjoy belligerence.

Gbawe:

Na lie !!! Please resurrect the thread right now or forever remain discredited. I am a happy guy and I don't go around looking for enemies. Nonetheless, I have , over the years , come to realise that a lot of Nigerians can only validate their intelligence/importance/happiness as an exponent of [b]beaf[/b]ing with others needlessly. I see it on the ground everyday , even from folks who are paid to serve, with the casual rudeness that is totally uncalled for .

You are a classic example of that. I am sure you chose the user name of Beaf because , literally, you enjoy belligerence.

Seriously, your temper is too hot, that is why we have problems. You're always like someone that wifey has given a real roasting. . . Or do you live in an area plagued by traffic jams and exhaust fumes? Because its like you maybe, return from the office already very angry and then unleash the days frustration on any NL dissent. . . I'm just trying to help sha.

Your temper is a major weakness, think about it.

@ gbawe,abeg 5 gbosas for you.I took my time to connect with ur political tots,i am particularly impressed by your clear typos,kip it up.Dayokanu said something about the SE,its as if the area is politically stymied by poor political leadership,i see a poor turnout if no southeasterner is in the race but in politics 24hrs is a long time.I really cant say anything about the 'diasponaijas' on NL who determine the party on ground and what they consider by 'being on ground'but really the current trend does not bolster a pdp victory.I am on ground gidigba,i will register like i always do,AND I WILL VOTE RIBADU AND AC even though i am not a card carrying AC person.I am intelligent enough to know my vote and those of my family and yours will count in 2011.Oh my God,my country needs a CHANGE I DONT TINK JONATHAN CAN GIVE!Pls all effort should be towards voters education and support for credible polls.naijeria a gbewa o (amin)

Dr Kitaun:

Duke might never win any other election in his life, except in Tinapa zone.

Ribadu is not a politician per se, if he has the backing of a godfather like Tinubu did Fashola then he can rightly be factored into this, last I checked OBJ and AC werent allies, no ?

BTW, why all this hoopla about Ribadu ? Chidichris rightly pointed out areas that will grey out his inordinate ambition !

We need to stop believing our own lies, PDP would win even if it is former Speaker Buhari of the 'University of Toronto' Cert Scandal that they choose as their candidate. . .its that bad !

I hate to agree with you again on an other thread    but i have to.

The truth is in the bolded.

Nigerians just love to hope against hope. I really feel bad for my people sometimes

I will go one over your statement and say only a popular uprising or Revolution can make PDP lose in 2011, the exception will be if the oppsition can miraculously gain access to some secret cash vault that can put the owners of Nigeria(Big Oil) and PDP to shame.

Those who own Nigeria will not give up that easily.

U hate to agree with me again? Who 'was' u ?

Dr Kitaun:

U hate to agree with me again? Who 'was' u ?

Yea I agreed with you and some other folks comments here https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=484308.msg6447772#msg6447772

Don't fancy nodding in agreement with the same person on multiple threads but can't help it when they constantly hit the nail on the head about Nigeria, that's what I was referring to up there.

Please, folks, I am really very scared too that the dangerous man called IBB might end up being our next president. You guys need to understand something about Nigerian politics. Nigeria is obvious becoming too distinct country in one: The Republic of Northern Nigeria + The Republic of Southern Nigeria = One Nigeria. The One Nigeria slogan is absolutely fake only used when the North want to pacify the South to make them have a sense of belonging as they the North grab the oil proceed and give the south a hand out. Every Northerner knows that they are unproductive and contribute little or nothing to the Nation economy and the only way they can be relevant in the scheme of things in the 'One Nigeria' fake project is to remain in power which they have always believed they can get with their so called 'majority monolithic Northern vote' in elections. (Reason they are always very interested with census figures, more local government, more states in the north and less in the south so they get more seat in the senate and house of Representative as to sway decisions to their favor with the strength of such 'fake numerical strength). So every single Northerner knows quite too well that they have not benefited well from the ruler-ship of their kinsmen in 38 years YET, a Northern CANNOT and I repeat CANNOT vote a southern (Christian) candidate to the office of the President when he has option of a Northern Muslim candidate. Kai! Wa'alai Talai! Never! You guys should mark my word today!

What am I saying? The North will vote in IBB to power 50 times before they can look at Jonathan. Even if Sani Abacha rose from the dead today and says he is contesting, he will definitely get their block vote. The only thing Abacha need to do is to the emirs on the eve of the election and they will take a stand and all the Northern will only wait to hear which way they will vote from the emirs just like they wait to hear the sighting of the Ramadan moon from one source and they will queue up. IBB himself understands these tricks realities well and that is what he is relying on. He will definitely exploit them. I wont be surprised if he becomes the next president. It is a sad thing for our country to have him as a democratic President but what do we do? Everybody should start to think? What do we do to stop IBB? Nothing! So so sad! Again I must say that I dont know Jonathan's plans if he is ready to fight IBB hands down. He has the machinery to do that but will he? This is the simple truth in matter!!!

volasunkan:

@ gbawe,abeg 5 gbosas for you.I took my time to connect with your political tots,i am particularly impressed by your clear typos,kip it up.Dayokanu said something about the SE,its as if the area is politically stymied by poor political leadership,i see a poor turnout if no southeasterner is in the race but in politics 24hrs is a long time.[b]I really cant say anything about the 'diasponaijas' on NL who determine the party on ground and what they consider by 'being on ground'but really the current trend does not bolster a pdp victory.I am on ground gidigba,i will register like i always do,AND I WILL VOTE RIBADU AND AC even though i am not a card carrying AC person.I am intelligent enough to know my vote and those of my family and yours will count in 2011.Oh my God,my country needs a CHANGE I DONT TINK JONATHAN CAN GIVE![/b]Pls all effort should be towards voters education and support for credible polls.naijeria a gbewa o (amin)

Precisely !!! Your view represent the thinking of those of us on the ground. We fancy Duke and some others but pragmatically realise , in duplicitous Naija politics, there may not be enough time to totally destroy the mentality of zoning to the extent that leaders like Duke and Utomi can be President of Nigeria in 2011. Duke and Utomi cannot win in the North against a popular Northern son when , mentally , the region feels it is being cheated out of what was promised to it . Seige mentality will work against any non-Northerner (regardless of his pedigree) in 2011 in the end and despite the "endorsement" noise of Northern mercenaries who are only interested in cashing in at the expense of Jonathan's desperation that blinds him from seeing that , like OBJ's third term, this may be "a bridge too far" .

People need to think of the future as well.  Fashola will not leave Lagos in ruinous hands in 2015 for obvious reasons. OBJ left Nigeria in incompetent hands (Yar Adua) because the man felt he needed a stooge far more than Nigerians need good leadership. If Yar Adua was alive and healthy we can be assured that he will get another 4 years , from 2011, to further destroy Nigeria. Yar Adua , in 2015,  will also leave Nigeria in ruinous hands for the same reasons OBJ left him in charge .

With how Jonathan is fraternising with the most ruinous, most corrupt , most treacherous and most callous Nigerians just to gain the Presidency , is it not obvious that , under Jonathan, it will be 4 years of "business-as-usual" for the criminals keeping Nigeria down only for us to gain another crook in 2015?

Ribadu is now always in the company of men and entities of integrity who are struggling for a better Nigeria.  He has not had to pay anyone for their support either !!! We know the likes of Soyinka are more likely to blast Ribadu than collect a kobo from him !!!! I think Ribadu will lead well and subsequently hand over to another good leader in 2015 (like Fashola or Duke) so that the evil chain of "business-as-usual" leadership started in 1999 is broken !!!!

Folks should stop judging Ribadu based on his past alone. How about the obvious change the man has gone through? How about how he acknowledges his errors in admitting he could have done things differently while the likes of OBJ and IBB feel that they must never show remorse for anything?

Which Nigerian has done more , internationally , in the past 1-2 years to convince the West to help us fight corruption rather than write us off as a failed State even as Yar Adua, Aondoakaa and co (while IBB, OBJ, Atiku, et al kept silent)  were doing their best to ostracise us with actions that portray us as a Nation of overt criminality?

Folks should also note that Ribadu has totally shunned , unlike Jonathan, the influential  kingmakers like OBJ, Danjuma et al in preference for the company of some of our men of integrity (Soyinka, Falana, Ndibe, etc) who have zero political clout   in the clearest sign that Ribadu (if he contests) want to empower and work with those who genuinely mean well for Nigeria.

The man is not running around (like Jonathan) fraternising with those who have ruined Nigeria because he , like any analytically intelligent Nigerian, knows from our history that you cannot lead Nigeria towards progress if you have sold your soul to numerous Devils like Yar Adua did and Jonathan is now doing shamelessly !!!!! Ribadu too was once guilty of this (as EFCC boss) and that prevented him from doing his job excellently !!! The man has learnt from his mistake and this is why , unlike Jonathan, he is shunning all the political criminals even if they have the clout he could benefit from.

It is like Football. Nigerians should watch the off-the-ball movement of some individuals (ribadu, Duke et al) rather than focus on those who dribble too much (Jonathan, Atiku, IBB et al) while the team makes no progress.

Duke and Ribadu are not keeping shameless company just because of Presidential ambition. Jonathan, Atiku, IBB and others are. Nigerians should be very afraid of the latter category.

macfarland:



every single Northerner knows quite too well that they have not benefited well from the ruler-ship of their kinsmen in 38 years YET, a Northern CANNOT and I repeat CANNOT vote a southern (Christian) candidate to the office of the President when he has option of a Northern Muslim candidate. Kai! Wa'alai Talai! Never! You guys should mark my word today!

What am I saying? The North will vote in IBB to power 50 times before they can look at Jonathan. Even if Sani Abacha rose from the dead today and says he is contesting, he will definitely get their block vote. The only thing Abacha need to do is to the emirs on the eve of the election and they will take a stand and all the Northern will only wait to hear which way they will vote from the emirs just like they wait to hear the sighting of the Ramadan moon from one source and they will queue up. IBB himself understands these tricks realities well and that is what he is relying on. He will definitely exploit them. I wont be surprised if he becomes the next president.

Gbam !!!! Abeg help me tell those who are idealogically naive to the extent that they cannot see what is really on the ground and what can happen given the reality of events of the ground .

It is a sad thing for our country to have him as a democratic President but what do we do? Everybody should start to think? What do we do to stop IBB? Nothing! So so sad! Again I must say that I dont know Jonathan's plans if he is ready to fight IBB hands down. He has the machinery to do that but will he? This is the simple truth in matter!!!

Nigerians should become pragmatic by shunning a silly ,vainglorious and unrealistic project (Jonathan) to sensibly back the Northerner that represent progress, merit and national development with the added benefit that the North , in shunning and working against Jonathan, does not lumber us with one of its ruinous sons like IBB, Atiku, Danjuma, Saraki, Yuguda, etc because those are the only Northern candidates available !!!! With all the current noise I think zoning will be dead-on-arrival in 2015. For now their is too much bad blood and rancour around zoning for anyone to feel that Jonathan is not , like OBJ's failed third term, simply wasting Nigeria's resources chasing an unrealistic 'pipe dream' that , despite insincere noise, will prove extremely difficult to achieve .

The formula should be:

Good and Progressive Northerner in 2011 = defeat of IBB, Atiku et al + progress for Nigeria + pacification of the North with an eye on the future + a neutral North in 2015 (with zoning dead) backing a progressive President to hand over to a Duke or Fashola type administrator leading to continued and uninterrupted progress for Nigeria .

Gbawe my guy, are'nt you working too hard here?

The Ribadu/Oshiomole ticket will not sell beyond lagos and edo state. Besides Adams will not be so foolish to dump his office for an almost impossible dream. If jonathan is contesting then oshiomole as a VP in another party will be of no political value to the SS. The entire SE will be there for the taking for the highest bidder. You dont need a prophet to know that in that case you cant outbid the incumbent. nuff said.

You are using every logic available to predict what you want to see and not what will actually happen based on reality on ground. The only way and I repeat the only way any other party can smell the presidency is if there is a serious Implosion in the PDP, where keys members walk away from the party en masse.

Please you have overstretched the 3rd term logic. Kobikwelu has explained it all. Third term in itself was a hard sell, besides it is far more difficult to amend a constitution for such a sensitive issue when the opposition needs less than 40% to scuttle your plans.

In a presidential election, two things are very important which are the party structure and national visibility of the candidate. There is no doubt that PDP has the structure to win (i am not saying they dont complement this with rigging). As per visibility Jonathan has it. At least you dont have to mention his name twice in any part of the country for people to know what you are talking about. If you undermine this two factors then you dont understand what it takes to win.

You talk about just sycophants supporting jonathan in the north , and that the real politicians with sound ideological leanings dont support him. Then i will ask you to mention the "real politicians" who are not sycophants in the nigeria of today.

It will shock you , how "unknown" ribadu is in nearby Ekiti state, expecially amongst the real voters. It will also shock you how unpopular a donald duke is in nearby delta state. Forget all this internet voting that we do on NL. Donald duke can not make 500,000 votes nationwide.

As touching GEJ chances, I can tell you that the election is his to loose. Yes even without rigging. The biggest obstacle for him is getting the PDP ticket, after that its a done deal.The scheduling of senatorial elections on same day with the presidential election ,just before the governorship election is a masterstroke. Politics especially in nigeria boils down to personal gain. Most senators will not take the risk of asking there supporters to vote different parties for the senate and presidency, since we have a largely illitrate electorate and any complication in the process will work against them. So on election day it will just be to tell your supporters to vote "umbrella". Every election year we underestimate the work needed to change the status quo. New excitement, same old election, same old result.

For the northern governors position, I think that was a face saving move to hide the crack they now have in the hitherto one-indivisible-north. Another problem for the north is the lack of a credible candidate. The nothern frontrunners have massive political sores that are too difficult to overlook.


Ribadu i repeat is not a material that can make a good president.

I somehow suspect that the north may throw a last dice by bringing someone like Danjuma goje or try to pull the rug off GEJ's feet by tempting Namadi sambo to declare and get the backing of the north. I might be wrong. i hope i am.

^
Tell them jare!
My only disagreement is about Ribadu. I believe his time is not due, but that he will make an excellent president.

na_so: . . .I somehow suspect that the north may throw a last dice by bringing someone like Danjuma goje or try to pull the rug off GEJ's feet by tempting Namadi sambo to declare and get the backing of the north. I might be wrong. i hope i am.

The old North see's Namadi Sambo almost as a mortal enemy, they won't be pushing him. In any event, he won't play ball.

na_so:

You are using every logic available to predict what you want to see and not what will actually happen based on reality on ground. The only way and I repeat the only way any other party can smell the presidency is if there is a serious Implosion in the PDP, where keys members walk away from the party en masse.

I think it is those who say that the Presidential election is there for "Jonathan to lose" who are guilty of not noting what is actually on the ground. For various reasons , since 1999, the Presidents we have had (OBJ and Yar Adua) had the support of the North and the influential power blocs needed for overall victory. Jonathan is trying to 'buy' that support for a very difficult project in a very short period that does not leave him enough time to understand the treacherous characters he is dealing with. 

I actually don't care that Oshiomhole is Ribadu's running mate. My point is that the article may be a realistic indication of the AC's thoughts  because any ambitious Southern Politican may actually join up with Ribadu with the realisation  that , by default and as per the difficulty of what Jonathan is attempting , the most Progressive Northern candidate may win if Jonathan runs on the platform of the PDP. It will be a 100% win for PDP , with its already highly efficient rigging machine, if a decent Northerner runs on its platform.
With an unpopular Southerener , trying to "ungentlemanly" reap where he has not sown, many , including most of the Northern members of the PDP, may be convinced to work for the most progressive Northern candidate available.

Please you have overstretched the 3rd term logic. Kobikwelu has explained it all. Third term in itself was a hard sell, besides it is far more difficult to amend a constitution for such a sensitive issue when the opposition needs less than 40% to scuttle your plans.

My man,  the "doctrine of neccesity" that made Jonathan Acting President mysteriously emerged after the Governors were 'settled' despite the fact that Nigeria had been in a quagmire for a while. The point is that Jonathan knows he can only buy his way to the Presidency. His approach , so far , has involved bribing everyone and buying support because his project is one that does not ideologically sit well with most Politicians , to include those in his own party, despite duplicitous noise to the contrary. That method of throwing money at everything will only work up until most Northerners are confronted with the stark reality of being regarded as 'traitors' to their region for cheating the North out of what was promised to it.  Like third term , and when the time is here, you will start seeing how Jonathan will be matched , kobo for kobo and strategy for strategy, by those aligning behind the consensus Northern candidate.

In a presidential election, two things are very important which are the party structure and national visibility of the candidate. There is no doubt that PDP has the structure to win (i am not saying they dont complement this with rigging). As per visibility Jonathan has it. At least you dont have to mention his name twice in any part of the country for people to know what you are talking about. If you undermine this two factors then you dont understand what it takes to win.

Party Structure can quickly dissapear overnight if you are working against a principle most politicians subscribe to but are afraid to support publicly for fear of offending an incumbent President !!!! "Party Structure" can actually become Jonathan's undoing with how the Northerners in the PDP will accept jonathans bribe, pledge their support only to covertly work against his ambition.

Working against Jonathan covertly will soon become the weapon of choice because everyone must fear , under the mentoring of OBJ, the partisan ruthlessness of a President who sacked a PDP chairman (Ogbulafor) who stood in his way.

As for jonathan's "visibility" , that counts for nothing in the North. Of course everyone knows the President. In a highyly clannish region Jonathan's "visibility" is worthless because the natural agititation will be for the North not to be cheated out of what "belongs" to it.  Northern leaders , when the time is right, can solidify that agitation by promoting the candidacy of a Progressive Northerner . This will ensure that the small rank of Northerners who bring the argument that the "North has not benefitted from Northern leadership" are defeated with the emergence of a Progressive candidate who is a departure from business-as-usual mediocrities who have done nada for the North like IBB, Atiku, Danjuma, et al  . This is what the AC may have keyed into to formulate its strategy . I.e refrain from mentioning zoning and present a very strong Northern candidate as per the understanding that , despite populist talks to the contrary , zoning is still paramount in 2011.

You talk about just sycophants supporting jonathan in the north , and that the real politicians with sound ideological leanings dont support him. Then i will ask you to mention the "real politicians" who are not sycophants in the nigeria of today.

Why are the likes of Soyinka, Col.Umar, Balarabe Musa, Femi Falana, Okey Ndibe, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Ken Nnamani, Nigerian Liberty forum , Save Nigeria group , and many principled Nigerians and entities who fought for power to be handed over to Jonathan,  now failing to support  Mr.President's 2011 ambition? You should also ask yourself why many of the folks above seem to be supporting Ribadu to understand what jonathan will face as per the support some influential Nigerians and entities can motivate on behalf of Ribadu.

It will shock you , how "unknown" ribadu is in nearby Ekiti state, expecially amongst the real voters. It will also shock you how unpopular a donald duke is in nearby delta state. Forget all this internet voting that we do on NL. Donald duke can not make 500,000 votes nationwide.

This is outright fallacy. Ribadu , with his 'exploits', is known to most Nigerians. You may not fancy his candidacy (as is obvious) but let us refrain from stating what makes little sense. Jonathan may be well-known but that does not mean he is popular. Ribadu on the other hand, going by the willing support he is enjoying and that he has not had to pay for , is naturally popular. This will become more obvious when the battle lines are drawn . Jonathan is not doing himself any favours by "buying" support rather than tackling Nigeria's problems. If Ribadu declares, I think the support that will be motivated for ribadu (like the Obama phenomenon) will shock the "cash-and-carry" ideology of the PDP.

The scheduling of senatorial elections on same day with the presidential election ,just before the governorship election is a masterstroke. Politics especially in nigeria boils down to personal gain.

That may seem so to you. We are only seeing this strategy because Jonathan and his camp are , in a blind panic, trying to throw inducements at everyone. Like I said, we will see what happens , aligned with how the North wants the Presidency in 2011, when Majority of Nigerians get behind a Progressive Northerner candidate after Jonathan's political Popularity will probably have plummeted courtesy of his policy of running an election campaign rather than running Nigeria. Nigeria is not yet the home of progressive politics but things are changing . We all saw the numerous rallies urging the cabals to hand over to Jonathan. I think Ribadu is one of the few politicians that can unite Nigerians into action like that.

Ribadu i repeat is not a material that can make a good president.

And Jonathan is with the financial profligacy and festering criminality we are seeing under him motivated by a desire to remain President in 2011 by all means?

God in heaven knows that I will rather take a chance on hope and fail than accept any man made realities. If Jonathan Goodluck convinced this nation of his leadership abilities we wont be where we are now having a confused debate.

If this country was convinced about Jonathan Goodluck, NGF forum would have endorsed him yesterday. Reason being they would risk being politically irrelevant in the next dispensation if they do not to endorse a true leader who is popular amongst Nigerians and who will win the election anyway.
The reason they took the stance they did yesterday was because they fancy their chance against Jonathan.

Forget about the North. Jonathan will not win South West and South East convincingly. Folks are very enlightened in these areas and will not vote Jonathan for the sake of it. They will only be motivated to go to the polls for Jonathan if they are convinced in his leadership abilities and it is not looking good at the moment.

On election day I will vote Donald Duke even if my vote is the lone and wasted vote. At least I can say to myself I voted for who I thought was the best. I don't believe in triangulations and permutation. I don't believe in calculations, I prefer conviction Politics anyday.

Even IBB is more popular than Jonathan in the South East and the reason is simple. IBB's free market credentials is very attractive to South Eastern Businessmen. Add that to his later day proclamations on State Policing, Devlolution of Powers to State/LGA, Streamlining the Federal Government; you see a candidate that will naturally be popular.

Does anybody know where Jonathan stand on anything? Nada. All we have is Ima Niboro dishing out press statements and reversing them accordingly while the rest of the country speculates on what is actually Jonathan Goodlucks view on anything.

I will not support any Presidential candidate on assumptions or specualtion that he will turrn out alright. We already tried that with Yar'adua and we failed. Jonathan has to earn his support from anybody outside Bayelsa. The whole if you are ritgheous and progressive then you must support Jonathan wont work. WE need to know where he stands and how he will be any different than the President Jonathan we seen so far. Because the President Jonathan Goodluck we seen so far does not look very good to me.

mikeansy:

God in heaven knows that I will rather take a chance on hope and fail than accept any man made realities. If Jonathan Goodluck convinced this nation of his leadership abilities we wont be where we are now having a confused debate.

If this country was convinced about Jonathan Goodluck, NGF forum would have endorsed him yesterday. Reason being they would risk being politically irrelevant in the next dispensation if they do not to endorse a true leader who is popular amongst Nigerians and who will win the election anyway.
The reason they took the stance they did yesterday was because they fancy their chance against Jonathan.


Forget about the North. Jonathan will not win South West and South East convincingly. Folks are very enlightened in these areas and will not vote Jonathan for the sake of it. They will only be motivated to go to the polls for Jonathan if they are convinced in his leadership abilities and it is not looking good at the moment.


On election day I will vote Donald Duke even if my vote is the lone and wasted vote. At least I can say to myself I voted for who I thought was the best. I don't believe in triangulations and permutation. I don't believe in calculations, I prefer conviction Politics anyday.

Even IBB is more popular than Jonathan in the South East and the reason is simple. IBB's free market credentials is very attractive to South Eastern Businessmen. Add that to his later day proclamations on State Policing, Devlolution of Powers to State/LGA, Streamlining the Federal Government; you see a candidate that will naturally be popular.

Does anybody know where Jonathan stand on anything? Nada. All we have is Ima Niboro dishing out press statements and reversing them accordingly while the rest of the country speculates on what is actually Jonathan Goodlucks view on anything.

I will not support any Presidential candidate on assumptions or specualtion that he will turrn out alright. We already tried that with Yar'adua and we failed. Jonathan has to earn his support from anybody outside Bayelsa. The whole if you are ritgheous and progressive then you must support Jonathan wont work. WE need to know where he stands and how he will be any different than the President Jonathan we seen so far. Because the President Jonathan Goodluck we seen so far does not look very good to me.

Everything you have stated is spot on.

The North has begun acting as I predicted. Not only have they failed to endorse Jonathan they have now tactically shifted talks of zoning into the PDP's court. I stated that , sooner or later , the North will realise that it must stop talking about zoning publicly , focus more on selling intergrity and ability of candidates, while privately urging the region to support the Northern candidate seen as most capable of defeating Jonathan . That is what is highlighted in bold below from the Speech of Babangida Aliyu , a Northern Governor who has already endorsed a Northern candidate.

http://www.sunnewsonline.com/webpages/news/national/2010/july/28/national-28-07-2010-001.htm

Northern governors fail to endorse Jonathan

He, therefore, reminded the 18 governors out of the 19 present in the meeting that, “I believe we have agreed that we shall be binded by the decision of simple majority for the sake of our unity and the progress of our people.
“I urged each one of us to be honest , sincere, partriotic and God-fearing in presenting our positions and those of the people on the issue of zoning, while we leave the future to God so that our nation will endure to take its right place in the comity of nations.
“We must remember that as political leaders of this generation, God has now put the responsibility on our nation for the improved wellbeing of the present and future generations of Nigerians.

“Indeed, to many of us, the issue is not a simple issue of rotational zoning as is being hyped, but rather the issue of integrity, honesty and discipline.
“It s also an issue of good governance, the issue of equity intertwined by pragmatism.
“We must, therefore, be courageous in taking decisions, wise in negotiating properly and sincere in our determined effort to get Nigeria working properly,” he said.

_{I dey always fear to argue with you because typing go plenty}

For various reasons , since 1999, the Presidents we have had (OBJ and Yar Adua) had the support of the North and the influential power blocs needed for overall victory. Jonathan is trying to 'buy' that support for a very difficult project in a very short period that does not leave him enough time to understand the treacherous characters he is dealing with. 

At the moment politics in Nigeria is about “buying”  and "selling" support.  Politicians support you based on whats in it for them. We all know this. So in 2003 was it the north that ensured victory for OBJ against buhari? What role did the SS,SE and SW play? I am Just being  curious. Besides when you talk about the “north” what north are you talking about? Has Kogi,taraba,plateau etc that have voiced there support for jonathan moved out of the north? People are now wiser to know that when they talk “north” it  is always to advance hausa/Fulani agenda in the national landscape. People are now wiser my friend . 

I actually don't care that Oshiomhole is Ribadu's running mate. My point is that the article may be a realistic indication of the AC's thoughts  because any ambitious Southern Politican may actually join up with Ribadu with the realisation  that , by default and as per the difficulty of what Jonathan is attempting , the most Progressive Northern candidate may win if Jonathan runs on the platform of the PDP. It will be a 100% win for PDP , with its already highly efficient rigging machine, if a decent Northerner runs on its platform.

Progressiveness and politics of the core north run in opposite directions. The Aminu kanoS and the Ibrahim waziris that ran a semblance of progressive politics were never brides of the core north.  Again can ribadu work with  a bola tinubu, seeing all the happenings in lagos between tinubu and fashola?  When northern politicians are faced  with choosing between a progressive politician from the north  who will do some serious damage to the northern ruling class and reluctantly supporting an outsider that offers to work with the ruling class, then you are sure it could go either way.

With an unpopular Southerener , trying to "ungentlemanly" reap where he has not sown, many , including most of the Northern members of the PDP, may be convinced to work for the most progressive Northern candidate available.

So if jonathan is not a gentleman, I wonder who is.
Reap where he has not sown?  Tell me , did OBJ reaped where he sowed when he came from prison to become president and still got a second term in a party alex ekweme formed?  AD had already settled for funsho Williams when Bola tinubu came and twisted everyone’s hand to get the ticket. What did Olu falae sow in AD to have defeated founders like Bola Ige? Abeg forget that talk.

My man,  the "doctrine of neccesity" that made Jonathan Acting President mysteriously emerged after the Governors were 'settled' despite the fact that Nigeria had been in a quagmire for a while. The point is that Jonathan knows he can only buy his way to the Presidency. His approach , so far , has involved bribing everyone and buying support because his project is one that does not ideologically sit well with most Politicians , to include those in his own party, despite duplicitous noise to the contrary. That method of throwing money at everything will only work up until most Northerners are confronted with the stark reality of being regarded as 'traitors' to their region for cheating the North out of what was promised to it.

You seem to be downplaying the threat of a military coup that informed the need to invoke the “doctrine of necessity”. I am not saying that GEJ did not throw money at these politicians but please understand that the journey so far is attributable to an interplay of forces--- monetary inducement,fear of military coup, pressure from international community and most importantly providence. So don’t overstate anything here

Like third term , and when the time is here, you will start seeing how Jonathan will be matched , kobo for kobo and strategy for strategy, by those aligning behind the consensus Northern candidate.

By your logic the third term kite was shot down by the north and the north alone. Abi? Third term was difficult to sell to the entire country and the votes that quashed it came from all parts of the country.  As for the northern consensus candidate , we dey siddon look, when the time comes there will be an appropriate response. The relevance of the north in Nigerian politics owes partly to the consensus backing they have always had from the SS, So if they are ready to change the game, then fine.

Party Structure can quickly dissapear overnight if you are working against a principle most politicians subscribe to but are afraid to support publicly for fear of offending an incumbent President !!!! "Party Structure" can actually become Jonathan's undoing with how the Northerners in the PDP will accept jonathans bribe, pledge their support only to covertly work against his ambition.

Did you say most politicians? Zoning abi? So if a northern candidate is allowed to win on the grounds of zoning, how many years will he spend?  You expect him to do just one 4-year term and leave abi?

See ,I have read commentaries from a lot of the northern politicians that support zoning and the unspoken tone is that zoning will be done away with, only when they must have completed their 8-year term like OBJ did.

The northern ruling class will hardly zone the presidency to the SE or SS. What they are planning is to harass jonathan not to contest and after the first 4-year term of the northerner that will emerge, Zoning will be discussed and dumped/suspended to allow the man continue. Thereafter, the logic will be that since the north and south have had there 8-year turns, the floor should be thrown open.

Working against Jonathan covertly will soon become the weapon of choice because everyone must fear , under the mentoring of OBJ, the partisan ruthlessness of a President who sacked a PDP chairman (Ogbulafor) who stood in his way.

So why could’nt  the north save ogbulafor when they knew that he was suffering for trying to protect their  interest? Yes the north is a powerful political bloc, but can be broken. If jonathans last option is to apply some form of force , he will do that.

As for jonathan's "visibility" , that counts for nothing in the North. Of course everyone knows the President. In a highyly clannish region Jonathan's "visibility" is worthless because the natural agititation will be for the North not to be cheated out of what "belongs" to it.  Northern leaders , when the time is right, can solidify that agitation by promoting the candidacy of a Progressive Northerner . This will ensure that the small rank of Northerners who bring the argument that the "North has not benefitted from Northern leadership" are defeated with the emergence of a Progressive candidate who is a departure from business-as-usual mediocrities who have done nada for the North like IBB, Atiku, Danjuma, et al  . This is what the AC may have keyed into to formulate its strategy . I.e refrain from mentioning zoning and present a very strong Northern candidate as per the understanding that , despite populist talks to the contrary , zoning is still paramount in 2011.

This is just a wish. First there will be serious in-fighting in the north because of ideological conflicts , then if(which is unlikely) the progressive candidate wins , he would have lost his progressive touch that AC stands to gain nothing.  Anyway I do not see AC as a progressive party. So Tinubu is a progressive? What of ATIKU? O yes he was when he joined A C , now he is no more.

Why are the likes of Soyinka, Col.Umar, Balarabe Musa, Femi Falana, Okey Ndibe, Pastor Tunde Bakare, Ken Nnamani, Nigerian Liberty forum , Save Nigeria group , and many principled Nigerians and entities who fought for power to be handed over to Jonathan,  now failing to support  Mr.President's 2011 ambition? You should also ask yourself why many of the folks above seem to be supporting Ribadu to understand what jonathan will face as per the support some influential Nigerians and entities can motivate on behalf of Ribadu.

You this Gbawe sef.   How many voters can this your combined team get behind them, even in a free and fair election? Being a social critic and having a few friends in the media that give you a good rating does not make one a strong politician. Abeg I no fit shout

This is outright fallacy. Ribadu , with his 'exploits', is known to most Nigerians. You may not fancy his candidacy (as is obvious) but let us refrain from stating what makes little sense. Jonathan may be well-known but that does not mean he is popular. Ribadu on the other hand, going by the willing support he is enjoying and that he has not had to pay for , is naturally popular. This will become more obvious when the battle lines are drawn . Jonathan is not doing himself any favours by "buying" support rather than tackling Nigeria's problems. If Ribadu declares, I think the support that will be motivated for ribadu (like the Obama phenomenon) will shock the "cash-and-carry" ideology of the PDP.

Which Obama phenomenon?  Chai u no go kill me with laugh. Like the Obama phenomenon of jimi Agbaje in the last elections in lagos abi? Structure,structure structure.
Check just the thread here on NL and you will see that even ribadu is not as popular as you think. Don’t get me wrong I have always been a supporter of ribadu, But as president I will not.

That may seem so to you. We are only seeing this strategy because Jonathan and his camp are , in a blind panic, trying to throw inducements at everyone. Like I said, we will see what happens , aligned with how the North wants the Presidency in 2011, when Majority of Nigerians get behind a Progressive Northerner candidate after Jonathan's political Popularity will probably have plummeted courtesy of his policy of running an election campaign rather than running Nigeria. Nigeria is not yet the home of progressive politics but things are changing . We all saw the numerous rallies urging the cabals to hand over to Jonathan. I think Ribadu is one of the few politicians that can unite Nigerians into action like that.

Even in this your post you have stated that we are not ripe yet for a progressive to win at the presidential level

And Jonathan is with the financial profligacy and festering criminality we are seeing under him motivated by a desire to remain President in 2011 by all means?

The same way  tony anneneh and Bode George were walking as saints when ribadu was EFCC czar. Abi?