socialmediaman:
This guy just finished Nigeria! MalcoImX should we be worried? It’s not too late to change our minds and vote Sowore, or you already did absentee ballot?

grandstar:
On point on most things

About basing the budget on N305, its just stupid

The investor forex window is around 360, why not let it merge? This alone may add an extra 400bn to the government kitty and reduce borrowing by PMB which is as sure as night follows day

jpphilips:


Its an indirect way of subsidizing the naira, if the CBN relaxes to 360, then the interbank window will drive the investors forex window beyond 500 naira, do you really want that to happen?
Its like asking the government to remove petrol subsidy but nobody wants to pay the landing cost of PMS which is at 210/220 naira currently.

jpphilips:
This analysis is pretty flawed in some areas, I will still commend the writer for an effort, its hard lately seeing Nigerians that wish to embrace reality not the mumbo jumbo thrown around by politicians.

Nigeria earns most of her revenue from oil but not all, you skipped FIRS receipt, NIMASA & NLNG.
Rightly put, Nigeria is doing about 1.9mbbls daily but you forgot that Egina is coming on board in January to inject another 220k bbls daily, the trans ramos pipeline presently undergoing repairs injects another 110k bbls daily, Realistic production for 2019 is around 2.1mbbls or more.

The present Opec basket is selling at $54/bbl, so the $60 may be a stretch today, however, OPEC+ is looking at a reasonable production cut and most refineries like formosa under repairs and dangote with 680kbbls coming upstream will inject a demand that will have positive price implications, 2nd phase of Iranian sanctions will equally necessitate a significant production cut, therefore, $60/bbl is very realistic for 2019 fiscal year not wishful thinking.

The FG has nearly reached her borrowing cap so it will be most reasonable if we see tax increase in 2019, that will equally balloon the FG's revenue standing.
The CBN pegs its transactions at 305 naira to a dollar since 2015, so it is not surprising to see it feature in the
2019 fiscal year, that doesn't mean you will have access to that cheaper dollars but a benchmark for government transactions.

The present inflationary pressures we have are the elections and yultide celebrations, recall it was at 11.23% in August, the CBN's aggressive mop up of over 1.4T in excess naira liquidity in the last month will surely drive it downwards.

Overall, the budget is an ambitious one with less deficit like the 2018, also the war on terror will as usual put the country on a fiscal strain, we can only hope for the best.

As for Atiku and his rhetorics, he can only appeal to those bereft of fundamental economics principles.
The challenge Nigeria has is beyond APC and PDP, I totally agree with that.
Buhari may not add stealing to the fiscal crisis, I can't speak for Atiku.

jpphilips:


The empty Sowore you mean? He should contest for Bariga youth president if he wins his polling unit.

socialmediaman:


Neither does he have the confidence of investors with his stiff economic policies, lack of transparency, corruption, cabal controlling his government, incompetent managers and administrators.

I do admire your textbook style economic analysis, it seems to be adequate for a developed society, one which is managed by experienced and competent political and business leaders, but it’s kind of oblivious of the ‘transmission transmitting’ managers in Nigeria’s political leadership who are overseeing inefficiency and lack of adequate planning in the system.

jpphilips:


The empty Sowore you mean? He should contest for Bariga youth president if he wins his polling unit.

socialmediaman:
This guy just finished Nigeria! MalcoImX should we be worried? It’s not too late to change our minds and vote Sowore, or you already did absentee ballot?

jpphilips:
This analysis is pretty flawed in some areas, I will still commend the writer for an effort, its hard lately seeing Nigerians that wish to embrace reality not the mumbo jumbo thrown around by politicians.

Nigeria earns most of her revenue from oil but not all, you skipped FIRS receipt, NIMASA & NLNG.
Rightly put, Nigeria is doing about 1.9mbbls daily but you forgot that Egina is coming on board in January to inject another 220k bbls daily, the trans ramos pipeline presently undergoing repairs injects another 110k bbls daily, Realistic production for 2019 is around 2.1mbbls or more.

The present Opec basket is selling at $54/bbl, so the $60 may be a stretch today, however, OPEC+ is looking at a reasonable production cut and most refineries like formosa under repairs and dangote with 680kbbls coming upstream will inject a demand that will have positive price implications, 2nd phase of Iranian sanctions will equally necessitate a significant production cut, therefore, $60/bbl is very realistic for 2019 fiscal year not wishful thinking.

The FG has nearly reached her borrowing cap so it will be most reasonable if we see tax increase in 2019, that will equally balloon the FG's revenue standing.
The CBN pegs its transactions at 305 naira to a dollar since 2015, so it is not surprising to see it feature in the
2019 fiscal year, that doesn't mean you will have access to that cheaper dollars but a benchmark for government transactions.

The present inflationary pressures we have are the elections and yultide celebrations, recall it was at 11.23% in August, the CBN's aggressive mop up of over 1.4T in excess naira liquidity in the last month will surely drive it downwards.

Overall, the budget is an ambitious one with less deficit like the 2018, also the war on terror will as usual put the country on a fiscal strain, we can only hope for the best.

As for Atiku and his rhetorics, he can only appeal to those bereft of fundamental economics principles.
The challenge Nigeria has is beyond APC and PDP, I totally agree with that.
Buhari may not add stealing to the fiscal crisis, I can't speak for Atiku.

Can you name a country where what you said happened? Please mention one!

What you said makes zero economic sense.

When Sanusi assumed office in 2009 his first action was to devalue the Naira from 120 to 150. At that time the official rate was around 120 but the black market rate fell to 190 at a time. Soludo was not ready to accept reality that the Naira needed a devaluation. He tried to defend the official rate and blew $20b of the foreign reserves doing so. That's one reason why the foreign reserves were low as at 2015
Sanusi immediately deregulated the official rate upon assumption of office and the 2 rates merged at 150! And it stayed around that rate for 5 years. If what you said is true why didnt it drive the investor window above the parallel market rate of 190 to perhaps 250?

Most countries that have devalued have seen the official and black market merge at most! Where you got this theory of your baffles me or did you just invent it!

Sanusi said the official rate and the parallel rates should never be more than 3%. Any difference above that leads to round tripping.

During most of Soludo's tenure, there was at most a N2 difference between the 2 rates so that people stopped going to the CBN to request for forex. He only veered off in 2008 during the oil price crash from $148 to $35 reduce foreign exchange inflows which natural should led to a depreciation but was unready to accept reality.

The present government rate at 305 and the investor window at 360 is almost an 18% gap and this has encouraged round tripping. Talk of PMB fighting corruption

Ratello:
No thinking about it this analysis captured the truth of the matter about this budget of hopelessness, however, I quite disagree with the writer where he said Buhari is trying his best, no way he ain't trying shiiit, he saw the handwriting on the wall when he was elected and common sense should have prevailed that he needs to surround himself with the best brains especially in his "Economic Team" this is where he got it all wrong by starting with a biting fiscal policies that scared international investors away and encourages low patronage of Nigerian vast market from local and indigenous investors. Our economy is a consuming economy (it is in actual fact a predominantly consuming one) and I don't see any sign of hope in sight should Buhari continue beyond 2019 because Nigeria may witness a total economic meltdown especially when one factors in the dwindling international oil price and owing to the fact that our over reliance on oil is still at 95% to fund the budget. It is a grim situation now that should call for sober reflection except a system is put in place that can kickstart a revolution in our Agricultural sector, Service sector and Manufacturing sector within the next one year this I believe can turn around the situation a bit and make the economy a partially producing one far from the consuming path we are currently threading. Yes, Atiku may not be a perfect and worthy man to mount the stage now and be the helmsman, however, his economic blueprint is a future catalyst that can take us closer to the economic revolutions i cited above in the 3 aforementioned sectors. The truth is, your analysis just exposed the rudderless and helplessness of this useless government of no vision which I believe it will be pure madness should we allow Buhari to continue beyond 2019. Peace.

jpphilips:


What stiff economic policies do you refer to?
What is the first priority of a foreign investor in Nigeria?

buharitill2023:
buhari stil remain the best option

trillville:


This your analysis gives me a lot of hope. Although the initial op criticised prayers, I personally cannot think of any option the Nigerian masses have. It shall be well. We are in the END GAMES now