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2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie - Politics - Nairaland

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2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by Nobody: 8:59pm On Dec 22, 2018
U all should follow the intelligent individual who wrote this @mona_moxie on twitter

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by Nobody: 9:00pm On Dec 22, 2018
Rth

1 Like

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by Nobody: 9:01pm On Dec 22, 2018
More

1 Like

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by Nobody: 9:01pm On Dec 22, 2018
Addition

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by Nobody: 9:01pm On Dec 22, 2018
Lastly

4 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by LoveMachine(m): 9:23pm On Dec 22, 2018
CHAI!
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by kaffyadeakeem(f): 9:41pm On Dec 22, 2018
OK. Well said
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by Yyeske(m): 9:54pm On Dec 22, 2018
No wah o
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by buharitill2023: 10:27pm On Dec 22, 2018
buhari stil remain the best option
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by socialmediaman: 10:42pm On Dec 22, 2018
This guy just finished Nigeria! MalcoImX should we be worried? It’s not too late to change our minds and vote Sowore, or you already did absentee ballot?

grin grin grin
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by PlayerMeji: 11:49pm On Dec 22, 2018
Watching how this will pan out in light of our dwindling oil output.
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by Nobody: 12:16am On Dec 23, 2018
What an unrealistic bunch of crap Buhari presented as budget.

Father Lawd

1 Like

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by Nobody: 1:20am On Dec 23, 2018
Nice description. This guy deserves a kudos

3 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by jpphilips(m): 1:49am On Dec 23, 2018
This analysis is pretty flawed in some areas, I will still commend the writer for an effort, its hard lately seeing Nigerians that wish to embrace reality not the mumbo jumbo thrown around by politicians.

Nigeria earns most of her revenue from oil but not all, you skipped FIRS receipt, NIMASA & NLNG.
Rightly put, Nigeria is doing about 1.9mbbls daily but you forgot that Egina is coming on board in January to inject another 220k bbls daily, the trans ramos pipeline presently undergoing repairs injects another 110k bbls daily, Realistic production for 2019 is around 2.1mbbls or more.

The present Opec basket is selling at $54/bbl, so the $60 may be a stretch today, however, OPEC+ is looking at a reasonable production cut and most refineries like formosa under repairs and dangote with 680kbbls coming upstream will inject a demand that will have positive price implications, 2nd phase of Iranian sanctions will equally necessitate a significant production cut, therefore, $60/bbl is very realistic for 2019 fiscal year not wishful thinking.

The FG has nearly reached her borrowing cap so it will be most reasonable if we see tax increase in 2019, that will equally balloon the FG's revenue standing.
The CBN pegs its transactions at 305 naira to a dollar since 2015, so it is not surprising to see it feature in the
2019 fiscal year, that doesn't mean you will have access to that cheaper dollars but a benchmark for government transactions.

The present inflationary pressures we have are the elections and yultide celebrations, recall it was at 11.23% in August, the CBN's aggressive mop up of over 1.4T in excess naira liquidity in the last month will surely drive it downwards.

Overall, the budget is an ambitious one with less deficit like the 2018, also the war on terror will as usual put the country on a fiscal strain, we can only hope for the best.

As for Atiku and his rhetorics, he can only appeal to those bereft of fundamental economics principles.
The challenge Nigeria has is beyond APC and PDP, I totally agree with that.
Buhari may not add stealing to the fiscal crisis, I can't speak for Atiku.

13 Likes 3 Shares

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by grandstar(m): 1:49am On Dec 23, 2018
On point on most things

About basing the budget on N305, its just stupid

The investor forex window is around 360, why not let it merge? This alone may add an extra 400bn to the government kitty and reduce borrowing by PMB which is as sure as night follows day

3 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by jpphilips(m): 1:51am On Dec 23, 2018
socialmediaman:
This guy just finished Nigeria! MalcoImX should we be worried? It’s not too late to change our minds and vote Sowore, or you already did absentee ballot?

grin grin grin

The empty Sowore you mean? He should contest for Bariga youth president if he wins his polling unit.

5 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by asorocker: 1:56am On Dec 23, 2018
What of subsidiy money and inec election money
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by jpphilips(m): 1:57am On Dec 23, 2018
grandstar:
On point on most things

About basing the budget on N305, its just stupid

The investor forex window is around 360, why not let it merge? This alone may add an extra 400bn to the government kitty and reduce borrowing by PMB which is as sure as night follows day

Its an indirect way of subsidizing the naira, if the CBN relaxes to 360, then the interbank window will drive the investors forex window beyond 500 naira, do you really want that to happen?
Its like asking the government to remove petrol subsidy but nobody wants to pay the landing cost of PMS which is at 210/220 naira currently.

3 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by grandstar(m): 2:29am On Dec 23, 2018
jpphilips:


Its an indirect way of subsidizing the naira, if the CBN relaxes to 360, then the interbank window will drive the investors forex window beyond 500 naira, do you really want that to happen?
Its like asking the government to remove petrol subsidy but nobody wants to pay the landing cost of PMS which is at 210/220 naira currently.

Can you name a country where what you said happened? Please mention one!

What you said makes zero economic sense.

When Sanusi assumed office in 2009 his first action was to devalue the Naira from 120 to 150. At that time the official rate was around 120 but the black market rate fell to 190 at a time. Soludo was not ready to accept reality that the Naira needed a devaluation. He tried to defend the official rate and blew $20b of the foreign reserves doing so. That's one reason why the foreign reserves were low as at 2015

Sanusi immediately deregulated the official rate upon assumption of office and the 2 rates merged at 150! And it stayed around that rate for 5 years. If what you said is true why didnt it drive the investor window above the parallel market rate of 190 to perhaps 250?

Most countries that have devalued have seen the official and black market merge at most! Where you got this theory of your baffles me or did you just invent it!

Sanusi said the official rate and the parallel rates should never be more than 3%. Any difference above that leads to round tripping.

During most of Soludo's tenure, there was at most a N2 difference between the 2 rates so that people stopped going to the CBN to request for forex. He only veered off in 2008 during the oil price crash from $148 to $35 reduce foreign exchange inflows which natural should led to a depreciation but was unready to accept reality.

The present government rate at 305 and the investor window at 360 is almost an 18% gap and this has encouraged round tripping. Talk of PMB fighting corruption grin grin

6 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by socialmediaman: 2:29am On Dec 23, 2018
jpphilips:
This analysis is pretty flawed in some areas, I will still commend the writer for an effort, its hard lately seeing Nigerians that wish to embrace reality not the mumbo jumbo thrown around by politicians.

Nigeria earns most of her revenue from oil but not all, you skipped FIRS receipt, NIMASA & NLNG.
Rightly put, Nigeria is doing about 1.9mbbls daily but you forgot that Egina is coming on board in January to inject another 220k bbls daily, the trans ramos pipeline presently undergoing repairs injects another 110k bbls daily, Realistic production for 2019 is around 2.1mbbls or more.

The present Opec basket is selling at $54/bbl, so the $60 may be a stretch today, however, OPEC+ is looking at a reasonable production cut and most refineries like formosa under repairs and dangote with 680kbbls coming upstream will inject a demand that will have positive price implications, 2nd phase of Iranian sanctions will equally necessitate a significant production cut, therefore, $60/bbl is very realistic for 2019 fiscal year not wishful thinking.

The FG has nearly reached her borrowing cap so it will be most reasonable if we see tax increase in 2019, that will equally balloon the FG's revenue standing.
The CBN pegs its transactions at 305 naira to a dollar since 2015, so it is not surprising to see it feature in the
2019 fiscal year, that doesn't mean you will have access to that cheaper dollars but a benchmark for government transactions.

The present inflationary pressures we have are the elections and yultide celebrations, recall it was at 11.23% in August, the CBN's aggressive mop up of over 1.4T in excess naira liquidity in the last month will surely drive it downwards.

Overall, the budget is an ambitious one with less deficit like the 2018, also the war on terror will as usual put the country on a fiscal strain, we can only hope for the best.

As for Atiku and his rhetorics, he can only appeal to those bereft of fundamental economics principles.
The challenge Nigeria has is beyond APC and PDP, I totally agree with that.
Buhari may not add stealing to the fiscal crisis, I can't speak for Atiku.

Neither does he have the confidence of investors with his stiff economic policies, lack of transparency, corruption, cabal controlling his government, incompetent managers and administrators.

I do admire your textbook style economic analysis, it seems to be adequate for a developed society, one which is managed by experienced and competent political and business leaders, but it’s kind of oblivious of the ‘transmission transmitting’ managers in Nigeria’s political leadership who are overseeing inefficiency and lack of adequate planning in the system.

4 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by socialmediaman: 2:31am On Dec 23, 2018
jpphilips:


The empty Sowore you mean? He should contest for Bariga youth president if he wins his polling unit.

was actually kidding with the comment
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by Ratello: 2:59am On Dec 23, 2018
No thinking about it this analysis captured the truth of the matter about this budget of hopelessness, however, I quite disagree with the writer where he said Buhari is trying his best, no way he ain't trying shiiit, he saw the handwriting on the wall when he was elected and common sense should have prevailed that he needs to surround himself with the best brains especially in his "Economic Team" this is where he got it all wrong by starting with a biting fiscal policies that scared international investors away and encourages low patronage of Nigerian vast market from local and indigenous investors. Our economy is a consuming economy (it is in actual fact a predominantly consuming one) and I don't see any sign of hope in sight should Buhari continue beyond 2019 because Nigeria may witness a total economic meltdown especially when one factors in the dwindling international oil price and owing to the fact that our over reliance on oil is still at 95% to fund the budget. It is a grim situation now that should call for sober reflection except a system is put in place that can kickstart a revolution in our Agricultural sector, Service sector and Manufacturing sector within the next one year this I believe can turn around the situation a bit and make the economy a partially producing one far from the consuming path we are currently threading. Yes, Atiku may not be a perfect and worthy man to mount the stage now and be the helmsman, however, his economic blueprint is a future catalyst that can take us closer to the economic revolutions i cited above in the 3 aforementioned sectors. The truth is, your analysis just exposed the rudderless and helplessness of this useless government of no vision which I believe it will be pure madness should we allow Buhari to continue beyond 2019. Peace.

5 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by jpphilips(m): 10:38am On Dec 23, 2018
socialmediaman:


Neither does he have the confidence of investors with his stiff economic policies, lack of transparency, corruption, cabal controlling his government, incompetent managers and administrators.

I do admire your textbook style economic analysis, it seems to be adequate for a developed society, one which is managed by experienced and competent political and business leaders, but it’s kind of oblivious of the ‘transmission transmitting’ managers in Nigeria’s political leadership who are overseeing inefficiency and lack of adequate planning in the system.

What stiff economic policies do you refer to?
What is the first priority of a foreign investor in Nigeria?

2 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by MalcoImX: 11:14am On Dec 23, 2018
jpphilips:


The empty Sowore you mean? He should contest for Bariga youth president if he wins his polling unit.

socialmediaman:
This guy just finished Nigeria! MalcoImX should we be worried? It’s not too late to change our minds and vote Sowore, or you already did absentee ballot?

grin grin grin
If you've read Chinua Achebe's Man of the People, you'd know that Sowore had better stayed with his news reporting.

The politician in that book, Chief Nanga, wanted to construct a road to his village and an engineer is insisting that you cannot construct a road without soil survey and other assessments. Chief Nanga advised the engineer to stay off their affairs of politics and face his books, further saying they'll sponsor him to whatever level to keep reading books.

That's Sowore's dilemma now. Competence is best aided by experience, resources and structure which Sowore lacks. Surprisingly, godfatherism is also a factor, especially for a beginner.

It's worse if he's doing it just to be an also-run or to garnish his CV. He would make good his goals if he had started small, like a LG chairman, a commissioner or a a governor. Even these, he'd have to work it out for about 3 to 8 years.

3 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by MalcoImX: 11:19am On Dec 23, 2018
.
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by trillville(m): 11:36am On Dec 23, 2018
jpphilips:
This analysis is pretty flawed in some areas, I will still commend the writer for an effort, its hard lately seeing Nigerians that wish to embrace reality not the mumbo jumbo thrown around by politicians.

Nigeria earns most of her revenue from oil but not all, you skipped FIRS receipt, NIMASA & NLNG.
Rightly put, Nigeria is doing about 1.9mbbls daily but you forgot that Egina is coming on board in January to inject another 220k bbls daily, the trans ramos pipeline presently undergoing repairs injects another 110k bbls daily, Realistic production for 2019 is around 2.1mbbls or more.

The present Opec basket is selling at $54/bbl, so the $60 may be a stretch today, however, OPEC+ is looking at a reasonable production cut and most refineries like formosa under repairs and dangote with 680kbbls coming upstream will inject a demand that will have positive price implications, 2nd phase of Iranian sanctions will equally necessitate a significant production cut, therefore, $60/bbl is very realistic for 2019 fiscal year not wishful thinking.

The FG has nearly reached her borrowing cap so it will be most reasonable if we see tax increase in 2019, that will equally balloon the FG's revenue standing.
The CBN pegs its transactions at 305 naira to a dollar since 2015, so it is not surprising to see it feature in the
2019 fiscal year, that doesn't mean you will have access to that cheaper dollars but a benchmark for government transactions.

The present inflationary pressures we have are the elections and yultide celebrations, recall it was at 11.23% in August, the CBN's aggressive mop up of over 1.4T in excess naira liquidity in the last month will surely drive it downwards.

Overall, the budget is an ambitious one with less deficit like the 2018, also the war on terror will as usual put the country on a fiscal strain, we can only hope for the best.

As for Atiku and his rhetorics, he can only appeal to those bereft of fundamental economics principles.
The challenge Nigeria has is beyond APC and PDP, I totally agree with that.
Buhari may not add stealing to the fiscal crisis, I can't speak for Atiku.


This your analysis gives me a lot of hope. Although the initial op criticised prayers, I personally cannot think of any option the Nigerian masses have. It shall be well. We are in the END GAMES now
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by jpphilips(m): 11:59am On Dec 23, 2018
[quote author=grandstar post=74090409]

Can you name a country where what you said happened? Please mention one!

Do you know any import dependent economy that is not doing what I just said? Why do you think the US refers to China as a currency manipulator?
Why do you think we have countries in the GCC, XOF, XAF and even the Dinar region utilizing the same currency in different countries with different rates?


What you said makes zero economic sense.

When Sanusi assumed office in 2009 his first action was to devalue the Naira from 120 to 150. At that time the official rate was around 120 but the black market rate fell to 190 at a time. Soludo was not ready to accept reality that the Naira needed a devaluation. He tried to defend the official rate and blew $20b of the foreign reserves doing so. That's one reason why the foreign reserves were low as at 2015
Sanusi immediately deregulated the official rate upon assumption of office and the 2 rates merged at 150! And it stayed around that rate for 5 years. If what you said is true why didnt it drive the investor window above the parallel market rate of 190 to perhaps 250?


You don't get it do you? The parallel market is driven by demand and supply therefore, currency devaluation does not aim to bridge the gap between govt rate and black market rates, rather, it is a strategy to conserve forex to ensure liquidity in the forex market (supply).

Sanusi dropped the naira to 155 not 150 at a short time when crude price was low in 2011 with a depleted foreign reserves, if he had Soludo's robust foreign reserves of 2008, he wouldn't bother, you are discussing actions without incorporating circumstances.

Presently, the CBN has 41 items in their ban, they no longer support supposedly because we have the capacity to produce them, those items draw breath from the parallel market so the rate disparity is inevitable.
Conversely, if the CBN reverses that decision, you may not be able to produce toothpick and the pressure on your reserves will be so much that in 6months you will devalue to 500 naira, that is the reality I presented above.


Most countries that have devalued have seen the official and black market merge at most! Where you got this theory of your baffles me or did you just invent it!

Sanusi said the official rate and the parallel rates should never be more than 3%. Any difference above that leads to round tripping.

During most of Soludo's tenure, there was at most a N2 difference between the 2 rates so that people stopped going to the CBN to request for forex. He only veered off in 2008 during the oil price crash from $148 to $35 reduce foreign exchange inflows which natural should led to a depreciation but was unready to accept reality.

The present government rate at 305 and the investor window at 360 is almost an 18% gap and this has encouraged round tripping. Talk of PMB fighting corruption grin grin


You dare quote Sanusi's economic policies, please dont make me laugh if Sanusi was still in charge under the present circumstances, you will be begging on the streets of Idumota by now.

The same Sanusi that told us Soludo's EDW (extended discount window) was corruption, he blew the whistle on banks hard hit by global meltdown, quietly recuperating with the EDW, customers ran away, in the end he bailed out the banks then sold them below cost price, meanwhile Soludo's EDW produced Nigeria's first multinational banks, please don't compare saliva with fresh water, Sanusi is a waste but that depends on your background, till Sanusi shows us his round tripping evidence, then I will take him seriously.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by jpphilips(m): 12:19pm On Dec 23, 2018
Ratello:
No thinking about it this analysis captured the truth of the matter about this budget of hopelessness, however, I quite disagree with the writer where he said Buhari is trying his best, no way he ain't trying shiiit, he saw the handwriting on the wall when he was elected and common sense should have prevailed that he needs to surround himself with the best brains especially in his "Economic Team" this is where he got it all wrong by starting with a biting fiscal policies that scared international investors away and encourages low patronage of Nigerian vast market from local and indigenous investors. Our economy is a consuming economy (it is in actual fact a predominantly consuming one) and I don't see any sign of hope in sight should Buhari continue beyond 2019 because Nigeria may witness a total economic meltdown especially when one factors in the dwindling international oil price and owing to the fact that our over reliance on oil is still at 95% to fund the budget. It is a grim situation now that should call for sober reflection except a system is put in place that can kickstart a revolution in our Agricultural sector, Service sector and Manufacturing sector within the next one year this I believe can turn around the situation a bit and make the economy a partially producing one far from the consuming path we are currently threading. Yes, Atiku may not be a perfect and worthy man to mount the stage now and be the helmsman, however, his economic blueprint is a future catalyst that can take us closer to the economic revolutions i cited above in the 3 aforementioned sectors. The truth is, your analysis just exposed the rudderless and helplessness of this useless government of no vision which I believe it will be pure madness should we allow Buhari to continue beyond 2019. Peace.

The usual gibberish from unlettered m0r0ns, speak economics or shut the fvck up!!

3 Likes

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by 989900: 12:54pm On Dec 23, 2018
We're here, watching.


P.S. How is Dangote's refinery coming along? That would be a major factor. Anyone has any news on Ajaokuta?
Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by socialmediaman: 1:47pm On Dec 23, 2018
jpphilips:


What stiff economic policies do you refer to?
What is the first priority of a foreign investor in Nigeria?

Please Tell me about his forex policies of 2016, Nigeria’s Growth in 2016 as well.

Of course every investor wants to make profit and operate in a stable polity, so can you tell me which of Buhari’s fiscal and monetary policies encouraged or ensured these?

1 Like

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by FearGodinall: 1:49pm On Dec 23, 2018
buharitill2023:
buhari stil remain the best option
I hope nobody love and benefit more from a man than his wife but here,the man you refered to which happens to be her own husband said the man is not in charge so,which of the Buhari are you refering to.

1 Like

Re: 2019 FG Budget Breakdown for Layman By @mona_moxie by socialmediaman: 1:59pm On Dec 23, 2018
trillville:


This your analysis gives me a lot of hope. Although the initial op criticised prayers, I personally cannot think of any option the Nigerian masses have. It shall be well. We are in the END GAMES now

On the contrary, OP was not really criticizing prayers. Think about it this way. When your house is on fire, do you sit and pray or do you try to quench the fire?

Forget about textbook economic analysis based on hope. While OP’s analysis was centered only on oil which is far from where Nigeria currently funds the budget, the question you ask yourself is, what change are you expecting from a budget which has only about $6 billion dollars to invest on infrastructure and capital expenses? While over $10 billion goes to recurrent? I mean, for an economy which is still developing?

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