well, the election is here and there are predictions and counter-predictions. i have decided to do mine too. For me, having voted and observed the voting pattern in the north and down south, i have drawn up my own "objective" prediction. Of coz, some subjectivity cant be ruled out but i believe there is more objectivity than subjectivity here. I have looked at the voting pattern from 2003 to 2011 prior to the introduction of card readers and also the voting pattern in 2015. Even with rigging of elections from all parties concerned, voter turnout is always poor. i also believe that duplicity, dead voters, crisis/insurgency have helped upped the voter register while keeping turnout poor. I have thus estimated the expected voter turnout. I have also used only two parties - APC vs PDP. Of coz, most of you will agree that the others will hardly win any LGA in Nigeria. i have attached an image of the analysis but you may need to zoom to get it better. i have attached a pdf too. its better.

In summary, although the president didnt get beyond 5% of votes from SE, i have upped it considering he is now president and dynamics have slightly changed. I expect Atiku to do more than 20% in Katsina but have kept it within reasonable range. Adamawa will vote Atiku and he is likely to win there. But with a sitting APC governor who though a protegee of Atiku, i expect the Buhari sentiment to be high hence the 50%. For Kaduna and Kano, the dynamics of these two are complex. Lets just say anything can happen but i stand by what i have stated. Make no mistake about Plateau. Plateau is my 2nd home. The governor aint returning, this i strongly believe. Protest vote against Jang brought him to power and same will send him out. For those thinking Saraki and a sitting governor will amount to nothing in Kwara, you are day dreaming. Imo is 35% for Buhari cos of Rochas. It may be more or less but we cant underestimate a sitting governor. I dont expect Buhari to do more than 30% in Rivers, Amaechi notwithstanding. Let's leave it here. For the Southwest, i expect Atiku to do well in most states. From the pattern of voting there, opposition wins most time but the pdp always trails closely. i dont expect it to differ greatly now... Argue with your bonus data.
Truth is, except if the APC outdo the PDP in rigging this election, Atiku is favoured. its still likely a very tight race.

Any analysis without Atiku as winner is from hell fire.

Atiku is not winning the election. My analysis shows wins in only SIX states. He will lose almost all northern and NC states.

SternProphet:
Atiku is not winning the election. My analysis shows wins in only SIX states. He will lose almost all northern and NC states.

What do you mean he will win in only six states?

SternProphet:
Atiku is not winning the election. My analysis shows wins in only SIX states. He will lose almost all northern and NC states.

well, I gave u a detailed analysis. do well to put up urs. so Buhari will win Rivers, Cross River, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Delta abi? Buhari will also win Anambra, Imo, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Abia Abi? Buhari will also win Kwara, Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa and Taraba abi? keep being in the euphoria of 2015.

There will be stalemate. Let's pray for peace

Well done. The election is gonna be close. May the best man win.

Ah

I believe this analysis, But Atiku will win with 6 million votes. screenshot this

Op,o like your analysis,it looks like the one done by chozzy yesterday,very tight but you veered off.you refused to allow your research lead you but forcefully allocated figures for atiku.if buhari is winning more states than atiku,it means that he will win considering that his bases have more voters plus he has more rigging capacity and sphere.let me do a zone by zone breakdown.
In the south east,gej got 2.4 million in 2015,there's no way atiku will get more than this considering their apathy which is less than 40%.atiku cant poll more than 300k in ebonyi,500k in enugu or more than 500k in abia.am OK with anambra and imo. considering the pvc collection rate plus the looming ipob boycott.highest atiku will get here is 3 million,i see apga getting close to a million votes while i dont see apc getting up to a million.
Same reasons above should apply to ss,i see buhari getting close to 500k in rivers,dont see pdp getting over a million,pdp doesn't have the monopoly of rigging.pdp cant get up to 500k in cross river,its my state.apc should get above 300k in delta,am alright with akwa ibom and edo.bayelsa gave their son 350k,expect massive apathy here.in all i don't see atiku getting more than 4 million here with apc getting over a million.you should factor in apathy and ipob menace in rivers.
For the south west,i think am okay.i feel atiku will win a state here,maybe ekiti.the apc winning margin in oyo is too high,reduce,same for ogun.
Am okay with your final tally for the north central,i have always stated that a narrow victory for anybody will suffice here.winning margin wont exceed 500k.i dont see pdp winning with more than 200k in benue,am good with plateau,nasarawa and kwara although apc can also win kwara nartowly.buhari always wins niger massively,i dont see atiku getting over 300k here with buhari getting up to a million.am good with kogi though i see a narrow apc win.
For north east,i think atiku will narrowly win adamawa and taraba.he cant win taraba with more than 100k plus the turnout and voting power here is low.buhari has never lost gombe.i dont think atiku will get more than 200k,i expect buhari to get up to 500k.pdp is non existent in yobe and borno so i dont see them getting more than 100k here especially with the heavy military presence there.i see buhari getting up to 500k in yobe and 1 million im borno.i see buhari getting over a million in bauchi,pdp have never exceeded 300k here.
In the north west,i dont see atiku getting more than 200k in katsina or up to a million in kano.i dont see him getting up to 400k in jigawa while busting should get at least 1 million.pdp is non existent in zamfara,100k should be enough.there weak in kebbi,200k should be OK.i dont see atiku getting more than 700k in kaduna or more than 300k in sokoto.the north west is buhari region,dont expect any free and fair result here,expect massive rigging for buhari.kwankwaso,lamido and tambuwal will be overwhelmed.

Atiku will win rigging or not rigging

Buhari is winning this election. Shikena. Na just 6 days remain when official results will be tripping in. Hope PDP is preparing a better Orubebe this year.

OP, your voter turnout i
s too high
.

donpata:


well, I gave u a detailed analysis. do well to put up urs. so Buhari will win Rivers, Cross River, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Delta abi? Buhari will also win Anambra, Imo, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Abia Abi? Buhari will also win Kwara, Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa and Taraba abi? keep being in the euphoria of 2015.

Buhari will thrashed Atiku in Kwara state

@OP During your analysis you hardly factor VOIDED votes ...

With a difference of I80k Rerun is on cards surely...

Mind You there might be more voided votes this time with this INDEX finger ish...

senatordave1:
Op,o like your analysis,it looks like the one done by chozzy yesterday,very tight but you veered off.you refused to allow your research lead you but forcefully allocated figures for atiku.if buhari is winning more states than atiku,it means that he will win considering that his bases have more voters plus he has more rigging capacity and sphere.let me do a zone by zone breakdown.
In the south east,gej got 2.4 million in 2015,there's no way atiku will get more than this considering their apathy which is less than 40%.atiku cant poll more than 300k in ebonyi,500k in enugu or more than 500k in abia.am OK with anambra and imo. considering the pvc collection rate plus the looming ipob boycott.highest atiku will get here is 3 million,i see apga getting close to a million votes while i dont see apc getting up to a million.
Same reasons above should apply to ss,i see buhari getting close to 500k in rivers,dont see pdp getting over a million,pdp doesn't have the monopoly of rigging.pdp cant get up to 500k in cross river,its my state.apc should get above 300k in delta,am alright with akwa ibom and edo.bayelsa gave their son 350k,expect massive apathy here.in all i don't see atiku getting more than 4 million here with apc getting over a million.you should factor in apathy and ipob menace in rivers.
For the south west,i think am okay.i feel atiku will win a state here,maybe ekiti.the apc winning margin in oyo is too high,reduce,same for ogun.
Am okay with your final tally for the north central,i have always stated that a narrow victory for anybody will suffice here.winning margin wont exceed 500k.i dont see pdp winning with more than 200k in benue,am good with plateau,nasarawa and kwara although apc can also win kwara nartowly.buhari always wins niger massively,i dont see atiku getting over 300k here with buhari getting up to a million.am good with kogi though i see a narrow apc win.
For north east,i think atiku will narrowly win adamawa and taraba.he cant win taraba with more than 100k plus the turnout and voting power here is low.buhari has never lost gombe.i dont think atiku will get more than 200k,i expect buhari to get up to 500k.pdp is non existent in yobe and borno so i dont see them getting more than 100k here especially with the heavy military presence there.i see buhari getting up to 500k in yobe and 1 million im borno.i see buhari getting over a million in bauchi,pdp have never exceeded 300k here.
In the north west,i dont see atiku getting more than 200k in katsina or up to a million in kano.i dont see him getting up to 400k in jigawa while busting should get at least 1 million.pdp is non existent in zamfara,100k should be enough.there weak in kebbi,200k should be OK.i dont see atiku getting more than 700k in kaduna or more than 300k in sokoto.the north west is buhari region,dont expect any free and fair result here,expect massive rigging for buhari.kwankwaso,lamido and tambuwal will be overwhelmed.

I don't think I veered from my research. Well, maybe some one or 2 misconceptions. Many people dwell too much on 2015 election results as a basis for predicting 2019 forgetting that the dynamics are quite different. In Plateau, APC won cos Jang brought someone from his tribe against the general interest of the citizens. Today, things are diff. In Taraba, Mama Taraba with the support of Ty Danjuma helped pull votes for Buhari. Today, the dynamics are different. Remember that apart from Yobe, Borno and Zamfara, most of the states in the north are Traditionally Pdp states. It's funny how you think Amaechi as a sitting governor who could not garner up to 5% of the votes cast in rivers will now do great magic for Buhari but u can't see how Saraki and a sitting governor, Tambuwal as a sitting governor and Kwankwaso can pull voters for Atiku. You said Atiku can't get 700k votes in Kaduna? Lol. Remember that Pdp has always won Lagos in Presidential polls. Except for 2015 of coz but margin ain't huge. sha, na 5 days na im remain. I either cry or laugh. Let's hope and pray for a violence free election.

chozzy:

OP, your voter turnout i
s too high
.

Your correct.turnout wont exceed 35 million.plus if the difference is less than 200k,they will be supplementary polls as canceled votes will exceed 500k.

donpata:


I don't think I veered from my research. Well, maybe some one or 2 misconceptions. Many people dwell too much on 2015 election results as a basis for predicting 2019 forgetting that the dynamics are quite different. In Plateau, APC won cos Jang brought someone from his tribe against the general interest of the citizens. Today, things are diff. In Taraba, Mama Taraba with the support of Ty Danjuma helped pull votes for Buhari. Today, the dynamics are different. Remember that apart from Yobe, Borno and Zamfara, most of the states in the north are Traditionally Pdp states. It's funny how you think Amaechi as a sitting governor who could not garner up to 5% of the votes cast in rivers will now do great magic for Buhari but u can't see how Saraki and a sitting governor, Tambuwal as a sitting governor and Kwankwaso can pull voters for Atiku. You said Atiku can't get 700k votes in Kaduna? Lol. Remember that Pdp has always won Lagos in Presidential polls. Except for 2015 of coz but margin ain't huge. sha, na 5 days na im remain. I either cry or laugh. Let's hope and pray for a violence free election.

I didnt question you on lagos and kwara.amechi lost in 2015 because he thought things would be free and fair but pdp swept him with thugs and federal might.there was no result sheets at his own polling unit to tell you how brazen and desperate the rigging was.during the 2016 rerun,apc got 35% of the seats and since then apc have gotten stronger while wike has lost key men.i see atiku winning rivers but with lower margins.
If you analyze most presidential results,you will notice massive righing by pdp.this is no more possible.with or without mama taraba buhari has alwatlys gotten 30% there plus i dont think t.y danjuma supported him after buhari lost taraba and even in danjuma lga.i also didnt challenge that of plateau.just reduce atiku margins in the ss,se and you will get the real results...

donpata:


well, I gave u a detailed analysis. do well to put up urs. so Buhari will win Rivers, Cross River, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom and Delta abi? Buhari will also win Anambra, Imo, Ebonyi, Enugu, and Abia Abi? Buhari will also win Kwara, Plateau, Benue, Nassarawa and Taraba abi? keep being in the euphoria of 2015.

To be fair. This is the Best and most reasonable anaylsis. Welldone

Atiku AGENDA IS TO SELL NIGERIA ECONOMIC ASSETS TO HIS FRIENDS, LOOT NIGERIA TRESURY AND GRANT AMNESTY TO THIEVES





ATHIEFKULATED MEMBER'S OBITUARY ON SUNDAY


ATHIEFKULATED MEMBER'S OBITUARY ON SUNDAY


ATHIEFKULATED MEMBER'S OBITUARY ON SUNDAY



ATHIEFKULATED MEMBER'S OBITUARY ON SUNDAY

Why do people even imagine possibility of PDP winning Imo State? That's absurd based on their almost non-existence.

senatordave1:

I didnt question you on lagos and kwara.amechi lost in 2015 because he thought things would be free and fair but pdp swept him with thugs and federal might.there was no result sheets at his own polling unit to tell you how brazen and desperate the rigging was.during the 2016 rerun,apc got 35% of the seats and since then apc have gotten stronger while wike has lost key men.i see atiku winning rivers but with lower margins.
If you analyze most presidential results,you will notice massive righing by pdp.this is no more possible.with or without mama taraba buhari has alwatlys gotten 30% there plus i dont think t.y danjuma supported him after buhari lost taraba and even in danjuma lga.i also didnt challenge that of plateau.just reduce atiku margins in the ss,se and you will get the real results...

Ok ohh. Let's leave that to the part of little subjectivity in my analysis. thanks

Abagworo:
Why do people even imagine possibility of PDP winning Imo State? That's absurd based on their almost non-existence.

Can you come clean on what you mean by "almost non-existence"?
APC Stopped existing the day Uche Nwosu was pushed out. Moreover Ihedioha is a great force.

atiku all the way