"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

NORTH CENTRAL ZONE
For a straight forward analysis, I have included FCT in the NC region.

Against my prediction that PDP would win two states in the NC in 2019, the party won FCT to take their win their to three. The herdsmen issue I believed was largely responsible for PDP's showing in 2019 is no longer a major factor in 2023. Also, the fact that Simon Lalong the sitting governor of Plateau state is APC's PCC DG is making me to give APC an edge in Plateu with a win of 35% of the total votes here.

Generally, I am predicting a win percentage of around 38% for APC across this region. Not much if you ask me. I expect PDP to compete very well here, especially in Benue, Plateu, Nassarawa and FCT. I expect a fierce battle between APC and PDP in Benue especially with a very popular governorship candidate of APC there. As such, I believe Benue can go either the way of PDP or APC.

Obi's strongest showing will be in FCT, Plateu (20% each) and Nassarawa (15%). I expect Kwankwaso to outperform Obi in this region with 18% of the total votes.

NORTH EAST ZONE
In 2019, PDP won Adamawa by 32,188 more votes than APC. I expected the same to happen in this year's election. I could have allocated more votes to Atiku here but for presence of Kwankwaso whom I expect to score around 20% of the votes across the region.

Looking at the margin by which APC beat PDP in Bauchi, Borno, Gombe and Yobe in 2019 (by hundreds of thousands of votes) and considering that APC maintains their dependable governors and footsoldiers their, I expect the party to still be victorous in the NE region this time as well, albeit with a reduced win margin (45% overall of votes) except in Taraba and Adamawa where I predict a PDP win.

I expect Kwankwaso to score between 20% and 25% in the NE while I do not expect Obi to score more than 2% (2 votes in 100) except in Taraba where I have him getting around 15% (15 from 100 votes).

NORTH WEST ZONE
From win percentage of between 65% and 73% for APC in 2019, I have reduced the party's win margin to a little under 50% in 2023 largely because PMB is not on the ballot and Tinubu is not from the region. I expect Atiku and Kwankwaso to cut into APC's votes but not enough to take the region from them.

Sokoto is a state I expect to be proved wrong with my prediction, especially with the endorsement of Tinubu by the popular and powerful philantropist in person of Alhaji Ummarun Kwabo (Jarman Sokoto) who has directed his supporters and loyalists to vote for Tinubu in the state.

I expect Kwankwaso to score between 20% and 30% (Kano) across states in the NW while I expect Obi not to score more than 2% except in Kaduna (because of Southern Kaduna) where I have him scoring 15%.


SOUTH EAST ZONE
This is a region APC can afford not to hold a campaign rally and still win the presidency.

As I said earlier, I have increased the expected voters turnout in the SE by 10% in each of the five states there. This should boost Obi's performance in the presidential election, assuming that the UGM/IPOB allow voters to exercise their right. I expect Obi to nick this region ahead of PDP with around 47% of the total votes cast. The fact that PDP remains strong in the SE region, and that APC also controls two states here (Imo and Ebonyi) mean that LP will not have it as easy as social media noise is making us believe. PDP and APC have a formidable presidential candidate and also have candidates for other state and national elections there too.

I have penned down APC to score 10% in Abia, Anambra and Enugu, and 25% in Ebonyi and Imo states. I also expect PDP to outperform APC in this region scoring between 25% and 35% of the total votes. When you combine PDP adn LP votes here, you will realize the extent of impact of fragmented opposition to PDP especially.

SOUTH SOUTH ZONE
With APC's inroad into the SS region in 2019, scoring hundreds of thousands of votes there for the first time since 1999 and winning the governorship election in Bayelsa before a court gave it to PDP, I expect even a solid performance this time around.

While I believe PDP will win SS region with around 35% of the total votes irrespective of what Wike and his G5 gang chooses to do, I expect APC to score nothing less than 25% in Akwam Ibom and Rivers, 30% in Cross River (an APC state), Delta (strong presence of APC there) and Bayelsa, and 35% in Edo.

I have Obi recording his best performance in SS in Rivers (30%), Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom (25% in each of the states) and 15% in Bayelsa.

I do not expect a strong showing from Kwankwaso in the SS region.

SOUTH WEST ZONE
While SW has been known to be a fluid region when it comes to national politics, I expect Tinubu to sweep the entire region (including OBJ's polling booth) with about 50% of the total votes there. APC can realistically score far more than my projection in the SW but I chose to go with the worst case scenario here.

It is actually funny and laughable that Obi's supporters expect that their candidate will clear 90% of the votes in SE and SS but expect Tinubu not to do same in the SW. The truth is, beyond the social media noise, Tinubu will coast home to victory in every state of the SW.

With further fractions in PDP in Oyo and Ekiti (where the state's EXCO of the party has recently been dissolved). APC's win is even more assured in the region.

Lagos remains the only state that Obi's supporters have significant presence and I expect that the LP will score around 25% of the votes there. Apart from Lagos state, I do not see Obi scoring beyond 15% of the votes in Oyo and possibly Ondo, with not more than 10% for their noise in Ogun and Osun.

🕳️

Booked

🚬

Town Hall ( 2023 election) different from balablu ( other elections)
Nigerians are going to vote personality and not political party

Seefinish:
Town Hall ( 2023 election) different from balablu ( other elections)
Nigerians are going to vote personality and not political party

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

It’s you that need rest

You state Atiku would win Rivers state

You say Tinubu would win Kano

Do you know who is even Kwankwanso

Keep on fooling yourself

You think people are voting based on Political parties

You stay in Osogbo and be predicting for states you don’t know what’s trending there


You are so funny that you gave Oyo a PDP state to APC based on ethnicity but you gave Katsina a Fulani APC state APC based on party

You reek of delusion

PassingShot:

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

Na your own eyes don dey clear already.

Hence the useless permutations.

PassingShot:
SOUTH SOUTH ZONE
With APC's inroad into the SS region in 2019, scoring hundreds of thousands of votes there for the first time since 1999 and winning the governorship election in Bayelsa before a court gave it to PDP, I expect even a solid performance this time around.

While I believe PDP will win SS region with around 35% of the total votes irrespective of what Wike and his G5 gang chooses to do, I expect APC to score nothing less than 25% in Akwam Ibom and Rivers, 30% in Cross River (an APC state), Delta (strong presence of APC there) and Bayelsa, and 35% in Edo.

I have Obi recording his best performance in SS in Rivers (30%), Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom (25% in each of the states) and 15% in Bayelsa.

I do not expect a strong showing from Kwankwaso in the SS region.

SOUTH WEST ZONE
While SW has been known to be a fluid region when it comes to national politics, I expect Tinubu to sweep the entire region (including OBJ's polling booth) with about 50% of the total votes there. APC can realistically score far more than my projection in the SW but I chose to go with the worst case scenario here.

It is actually funny and laughable that Obi's supporters expect that their candidate will clear 90% of the votes in SE and SS but expect Tinubu not to do same in the SW. The truth is, beyond the social media noise, Tinubu will coast home to victory in every state of the SW.

With further fractions in PDP in Oyo and Ekiti (where the state's EXCO of the party has recently been dissolved). APC's win is even more assured in the region.

Lagos remains the only state that Obi's supporters have significant presence and I expect that the LP will score around 25% of the votes there. Apart from Lagos state, I do not see Obi scoring beyond 15% of the votes in Oyo and possibly Ondo, with not more than 10% for their noise in Ogun and Osun.

failed analysis.

PassingShot:

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

You think this is 2015,you campaigned for Buhari.People are wiser now, your mumu analysis should not be taken serious.Credible opinion polls like Anap that predicted Buhari victory in 2015 have predicted an Obi victory in 2023. The so-called structure of criminality will be destroyed by well meaning Nigerians next month.

Gossiphub:


Na your own eyes don dey clear already.

Hence the useless permutations.

Na so e pain you reach?

Okay, tell me your alternative projections.

No correct forecast now as there's so much alignment and realignment going on in the political field.

It is only a daft person that will doubt Tinubu win in February.

We will be here to remind some people

Any article written by a renowned urchin and former bmc director can't be objective

I'll pass on this. The first 3 lines already gave the urchin Lord away

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

A nonentity is also making predictions and analysis. indeed if wishes were horses, a nonentity would ride.

Just like you reiterated that your Analysis failed in 2019, here you are repeating again. Your types are so uninformed about what's happening in other parts of Nigeria. Imagine you saying PDP will win Rivers State for presidential Election and I was Cold at the Magnitude of your Stack Ignorance. You know little or Nothing about Nigeria in Entirety. Tinubu will Fail Woefully in the North and he will be the Last Grandfather to Dare Muslim -Muslim Ticket in Presidential Election in Nigeria. 2023 presidential Election is different from your Known Conventional Voting Pattern and you must know that.

BAT all the way.

Obi is coming

There's no way Nigerians, with the multidimensional suffering in the past 8yrs will vote similar to 2015 and 2019 as though they're like trees that do not respond to someone coming to cut it.

In 2023, the structure of criminality will be broken for good!

i will just drop this comment here, when Obi wins come february this op will hear from me

Been waiting for this.

Na only you day give near perfect prediction

Lol, only a comedian or entertainer entertains the thought of Obi winning, let that sink in. i take my hiatus from the politics section until elections. God willing, many of us will be alive and here to accept the clear result of the APC's victory.

https://www.thecable.ng/hes-the-best-alpha-beta-ex-md-who-accused-tinubu-of-fraud-endorses-him/amp

Someone you claim cannot hold teacup or pen but you still claim holds all of Lagos when it suits your narrative, DEY PLAY.

Shots fired, incoming!!!

The angry and offended Nigerians are the structures of LP period...

Most people didn't see what's about happening coming

Ew

A very useless Thread by a very cynical op,

When Obi becomes, how can you even Predict Atiku to win rivers 😂😂😂 Are you even following the mood of the nation at all?