papiforreal:

Ss states had above 70% turn out rate which everyone knows is a hoax. With APC controlling fg, this wouldn't happen again

Thank you for this comment. I have been telling people that Jonathan rigged. Its just that his efforts weren't good enough. No matter how hated a major opposition party is, there is no way one party will get 1.5 million (almost 90% turnout) while the other will take just 70 thousand. Just compare than with gej votes in places like Borno where even a total of 200 votes shouldn't be a surprise as at that time

I'm just laughing, Buhari will win some states in the SS and SE this time around.
Save this comments for reference.

Indispensable85:
I'm just laughing, Buhari will win some states in the SS and SE this time around.
Save this comments for reference.

Am sure of edo,am just suspecting that he might add akwa ibom and imo.

Many things have also changed in the South.

Jonathan won EKiti and Edo. Not sure this time around.

Jonathan got a lot of votes in the SW and SouthSouth because he was the son of the soil

This time around no South South man is on the ticket so no enthusiasm, No FG money to induce voters like before

senatordave1:

Op,stop trying to be clever by half.how did you come about such swing? If so,you must also add a 15% swing for apc in the ss,se.you seem to be underestimating the mighty potential of apc machinery down south.if you analyze well you will discover that federal might and massive rigging are responsible for massive pdp votes down south not any real votes.again atiku is not a native like gej in 2015.

Intact,if you had gone back to 2011 polls,you will discover a pattern.in 2011 pdp got 11 million votes from the ss,se while buhari got 60,000.buhari got 10 million votes from the north while pdp got 8 million.
In 2015 pdp got 7 million from the the ss,se while buhari got 600,000.pdp got 3.7 million while buhari got 12.4 million.take note that pdp had a candidate from the ss,se in 2011 and 2015 yet his votes here dropped.if you go by this,that means atiku votes will reduce further down south while buhari own should increase triple fold.

So go back to 2011 and recalculate with particular reference to the results down south.take considerstion of each parties performance at all elections from 2016.switch off your partisanship.

Actually 15% is just an estimate of the number of voters who voted for APC in 2015 who are now unhappy and will vote PDP this time around. May be more or less. Even at 10% swing in the north PDP is still ahead. But 15% is the safe number.
Any swing in other parts of the country (plus or minus) will not be enough to overcome a 15% swing in the north in PDP's favour. I hope you can follow my analysis.

senatordave1:

Am sure of edo,am just suspecting that he might add akwa ibom and imo.

For me,my eyes are fixed on Akwa ibom and Imo States.
Some people will be shocked to their bone marrows.

axponline:



Actually 15% is just an estimate of the number of voters who voted for APC in 2015 who are now unhappy and will vote PDP this time around. May be more or less. Even at 10% swing in the north PDP is still ahead. But 15% is the safe number.
Any swing in other parts of the country (plus or minus) will not be enough to overcome a 15% swing in the north in PDP's favour. I hope you can follow my analysis.

Most of those unhappy with him are from the south.again,a lot of people down south have also joined the buhari train.atiku does not inspire confidence or support like gej.

senatordave1:

It will also change in the south biased boy.

Some people don't understand political calculations.
How can one expect Buhari to have same outcome in the SS and SE? He will score more votes in these regions due to so many factors involved thought he will lost some votes in his stronghold.

First is the fact that he's now an incumbent with soldiers and police under him to help checkmate opposition unlike in the past when he was an outsider.

Secondly, He has lots of bigwigs from the two zones this election than during the last election.

Thirdly, the SS already cannot write results in Rivers, Delta and Akwa Ibom states like the past.

Finally, no election results has ever stayed the same since the return of democracy.

That being said, I am neither for APC nor PDP, I only stated the obvious.

kingkakaone:

Some people don't understand political calculations.
How can one expect Buhari to have same outcome in the SS and SE? He will score more votes in these regions due to so many factors involved thought he will lost some votes in his stronghold.

First is the fact that he's now an incumbent with soldiers and police under him to help checkmate opposition unlike in the past when he was an outsider.

Secondly, He has lots of bigwigs from the two zones this election than during the last election.

Thirdly, the SS already cannot write results in Rivers, Delta and Akwa Ibom states like the past.

Finally, no election results has ever stayed the same since the return of democracy.

That being said, I am neither for APC nor PDP, I only stated the obvious.

My brother,i always look forward to your comments and that of efewestern,you guys are so objective.if you guys tell me that buhari will lose,ill believe you guys.anyway,most people here dont understand politics they reason it from the sentimental angle.can't wait for Saturday to come and go.

kingkakaone:

Some people don't understand political calculations.
How can one expect Buhari to have same outcome in the SS and SE? He will score more votes in these regions due to so many factors involved thought he will lost some votes in his stronghold.

First is the fact that he's now an incumbent with soldiers and police under him to help checkmate opposition unlike in the past when he was an outsider.

Secondly, He has lots of bigwigs from the two zones this election than during the last election.

Thirdly, the SS already cannot write results in Rivers, Delta and Akwa Ibom states like the past.
Finally, no election results has ever stayed the same since the return of democracy.

That being said, I am neither for APC nor PDP, I only stated the obvious.

Ok. Your points have been noted and I have made some changes to my projections. 2 questions

1. Are the percentages reasonable.
2. Do you agree that both APC & PDP can get 25% of the vote in 24 out of 36 states

If the answer to both questions is yes, then the chart shows it is reasonable that PDP can win the presidential election. The key is the % change in the states with the highest number of voters.

Play with the % change in the NW & NE and see how PDP might win. Here is another take. PDP wins in NE but does not pick up as much in the NW. I am not aligned with either party so there is no bias here. I am looking at this purely from a numbers perspective.

axponline:



Ok. Your points have been noted and I have made some changes to my projections. 2 questions

1. Are the percentages reasonable.
2. Do you agree that both APC & PDP can get 25% of the vote in 24 out of 36 states

If the answer to both questions is yes, then the chart shows it is reasonable that PDP can win the presidential election. The key is the % change in the states with the highest number of voters.

This is better and more rational than the first chart u used.

papiforreal:
So you think PDP would have 90% turn out rate again in South South and southeast states?

Nope! He thinks Kano will give apc 100% votes again with no void votes.

papiforreal:

Ss states had above 70% turn out rate which everyone knows is a hoax. With APC controlling fg, this wouldn't happen again

APC are prepared to set Nigeria on fire if need be. They didn't wait 16 years only to go down without a fight. They are willing to fight bloody. But NIGERIANS are waiting for them. Our votes must count! They can not kill 200m people all at the same time. #NigeriaSpring.

axponline:



Ok. Your points have been noted and I have made some changes to my projections. 2 questions

1. Are the percentages reasonable.
2. Do you agree that both APC & PDP can get 25% of the vote in 24 out of 36 states

If the answer to both questions is yes, then the chart shows it is reasonable that PDP can win the presidential election. The key is the % change in the states with the highest number of voters.

NW APC 65% PDP 35%
NE APC 55% PDP 45%
NC APC 55% PDP 45%
SW APC 65% PDP 35%
SE APC 20% PDP 80%
SS APC 30% PDP 70%

You have to factor that the turnout in the North and SE will be similar to that of 2015, The turnout in the SS will be less than that of 2015 since there is no SS son on the ticket and there will be some apathy in many parts of the SS

raumdeuter:


NW APC 65% PDP 35%
NE APC 55% PDP 45%
NC APC 55% PDP 45%
SW APC 65% PDP 35%
SE APC 20% PDP 80%
SS APC 30% PDP 70%

You have to factor that the turnout in the North and SE will be similar to that of 2015, The turnout in the SS will be less than that of 2015 since there is no SS son on the ticket and there will be some apathy in many parts of the SS

Ok. Going by your numbers, this gives it to APC.
A slight shift in NE or NW in PDPs favor will give it to PDP. Fingers crossed till Sat/Sun. If this election is relatively free and fair its very difficult to tell who will win. It would be really close.

axponline:


Ok. Going by your numbers, this gives it to APC.
A slight shift in NE or NW in PDPs favor will give it to PDP. Fingers crossed till Sat/Sun. If this election is relatively free and fair its very difficult to tell who will win. It would be really close.

In the attached spreadsheet you didnt adjust the NW and NE figures to reflect my prediction

In your numbers for 2015 SS had the highest turnout and that was understandable. Jonathan was a Son of the SS.

Are you thinking the SS will have the same turnout as in 2015 when their son was President and contestant?
Most SS are interested in local elections like Governors and HOA and not really president to choose between APC candidates of NW/SW and PDP candidates of NE/SE

I am expecting a 40% or less turnout in SS

What you guys fail to realize is that hunger has reconfigured many people's heads!

The voter apathy of 2015 in the south will not happen again.


Atiku will trash Buhari well well

PHILipu1:

And you think that APC will not do better than 2015/ in south east and south south now that PDP no longer control INEC,police,DSS,CBN,aso rock,army etc?

The shocker of this election will come from south east.
Write it down

Which 'shocker from SE'?

The same SE dumbohari and you daft zombies insult everyday? What a mor0n!

Even APC candidates here in the East are afraid of adding dumbohari's pictures on their campaign banner. The guy na bad market even for his APC members.


Stop deceiving your dumbohari skull and embrace reality. If dumbohari gets up to 3% in any Eastern state, INEC rigged it for him.

Very unrealistic analysis driven by emotion and not facts. I can bet you if all Atiku could get in the north is 15% then he is a goner. Surely it will be tough for Buhari in the South South and east but he will surely do better than last time. I can bet this with anybody!!!.

KillTheZombies:


Which 'shocker from SE'?

The same SE dumbohari and you daft zombies insult everyday? What a mor0n!

Even APC candidates here in the East are afraid of adding dumbohari's pictures on their campaign banner. The guy na bad market even for his APC members.


Stop deceiving your dumbohari skull and embrace reality. If dumbohari gets up to 3% in any Eastern state, INEC rigged it for him.

APGA + Buhari
www.nairaland.com/attachments/8285959_buharicampaignbillboard5_jpeg_jpeg564f13193f430e01503b4982fc383eb7

Accord + Buhari



Umahi PDP + Buhari

www.nairaland.com/attachments/8351120_umahi_jpg2670889533a753b73c6da3936fd64ac3

raumdeuter:

In the attached spreadsheet you didnt adjust the NW and NE figures to reflect my prediction

In your numbers for 2015 SS had the highest turnout and that was understandable. Jonathan was a Son of the SS.

Are you thinking the SS will have the same turnout as in 2015 when their son was President and contestant?
Most SS are interested in local elections like Governors and HOA and not really president to choose between APC candidates of NW/SW and PDP candidates of NE/SE

I am expecting a 40% or less turnout in SS

Ok. I have made the adjustments. I reduced SS turnout from 5.1m to 3.4m (33% drop). Therefore APC wins with 1m plus margin. This is fun. Lets wait and see what happens on Sat.

axponline:
From my analysis using 2015 results as a baseline, It appears all that is needed is a 15% swing from APC to PDP in the North to make PDP the winner provided all other regions stay the same as 2015. Yes a 15% swing from APC to PDP in all states in the North is very possible. Both APC & PDP will get the required > 25% of the votes in 2/3 of the states bit PDP will win on total number of votes. See below.

Middle-Belt alone will provide 45% swing.

#BackToDaura

Op, your analysis is second to none.
I love the way you drive out this analysis without bias.

The question most people don't ask themselves is this,
1. Do you think is all of those that voted Buhari in 2015 that will still vote for him now?

I'm one of them... Plus all the people I convinced in 2015... We are not voting for him, and all of us are from the SW

2. what do you think is the reason for high rate of PVC collection?
Is to vote out Buhari oo!!!
Or Do zombies thinks is to vote Buhari?

I dey laugh.

OP do you realize total PvC collected in SE is around 7M while Katsina alone is 3.1M

of the 3.1M in Katsina, I suspect 70% will vote and you know who they will vote for

Of the 7M in SE how many of them do you think will come out to vote? possibly 50%

LibertyRep:
All of these permutations and counter permutations will end latest by next Monday.

Whilst it is true that PMB might have lost some key allies in the North, he has also make some inroads to hitherto hostile regions especially in the South South.

Where in South south? What strategy ( projects, appointments etc) did he use to make those inroads? If you are referring to our own AkwaIbom, the best APC will get is reasonable vote for the governorship candidate while Atiku gets the whole presidential ballots. Take this to the bank.

PHILipu1:

And you think that APC will not do better than 2015/ in south east and south south now that PDP no longer control INEC,police,DSS,CBN,aso rock,army etc?

The shocker of this election will come from south east.
Write it down

You meant the SE AKA Egwu eke region? You are in deep hallucination. Wake up!!

senatordave1:

Op,stop trying to be clever by half.how did you come about such swing? If so,you must also add a 15% swing for apc in the ss,se.you seem to be underestimating the mighty potential of apc machinery down south.if you analyze well you will discover that federal might and massive rigging are responsible for massive pdp votes down south not any real votes.again atiku is not a native like gej in 2015.

Intact,if you had gone back to 2011 polls,you will discover a pattern.in 2011 pdp got 11 million votes from the ss,se while buhari got 60,000.buhari got 10 million votes from the north while pdp got 8 million.
In 2015 pdp got 7 million from the the ss,se while buhari got 600,000.pdp got 3.7 million while buhari got 12.4 million.take note that pdp had a candidate from the ss,se in 2011 and 2015 yet his votes here dropped.if you go by this,that means atiku votes will reduce further down south while buhari own should increase triple fold.

So go back to 2011 and recalculate with particular reference to the results down south.take considerstion of each parties performance at all elections from 2016.switch off your partisanship.

Factor in the fact that at this time, Buhari's reputation was top notch. He was voted then based on the general expectation that he would fix Nigeria the way they claimed he did in the 80's. Having failed abyssmal, on what grounds will people now vote for him a second time having squandered his goidwill?
Secondly, compare his campaign rallies in SE with Atiku's and smell the raw coffee.

senatordave1:

Most of those unhappy with him are from the south.again,a lot of people down south have also joined the buhari train.atiku does not inspire confidence or support like gej.

If Atiku does not inspire confidence, then what does Buhari inspire? Be the judge.

artofseduction:


Everyone who is voting PMB now voted for him in 2015.

Not everyone who voted for him will vote for him in 2019.

He has lost supporters but hasn't gain any.

His supporters re only banking of power of incumbency through rigging.

Godswill Akpabio wasn't his supporter in 2015. He is now. That's just one

artofseduction:


Everyone who is voting PMB now voted for him in 2015.

Not everyone who voted for him will vote for him in 2019.

He has lost supporters but hasn't gain any.

His supporters re only banking of power of incumbency through rigging.

I don't know why people just like consoling themselves in the face of reaality. Keep deceiving yourself with poor analysis. Your eyes will clear on the 16th, almost all bye elections, he cleared everything even in the backyard of your Saraki. APC voters don't have time for online bragging, you will see film trick on Saturday.

Amumaigwe:


Factor in the fact that at this time, Buhari's reputation was top notch. He was voted then based on the general expectation that he would fix Nigeria the way they claimed he did in the 80's. Having failed abyssmal, on what grounds will people now vote for him a second time having squandered his goidwill?
Secondly, compare his campaign rallies in SE with Atiku's and smell the raw coffee.

Buhari pulled more crowd in imo,atiku pulled more in enugu.they had equal crowd in abia and anambra and ebonyi.