This is a report from STRATFOR,on the Abuja Bombing.

Summary
More information has emerged on the Oct. 1 Independence Day bombings in Nigeria that killed at least 10 people. British and possibly U.S. intelligence agencies had reportedly warned the Nigerian State Security Service that militants may target the event and advised them to take several tactical countermeasures to secure the areas surrounding the Independence Day parade. While some of the advice was heeded, a lack of preparation by security forces likely contributed to the death toll. The attack was the work of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, but President Goodluck Jonathan (who hails from the Delta) is seeking to blame the attack on his northern opponents in the upcoming presidential election while at the same time trying to prove he can maintain control over militants from the restive region.

Analysis
Additional information has surfaced about the Oct. 1 bombings that killed 10 at least people and wounded 36 in the Nigerian capital of Abuja during a ceremony marking 50 years of Nigerian independence. British intelligence agencies reportedly warned Nigeria’s State Security Service (SSS) that an attack during the ceremony was likely, and according to a report in Nigerian newspaper The Guardian, U.S. intelligence advised Nigeria against holding the event at all. The United States also reportedly advised the SSS to use several tactical countermeasures, such as increasing the stand-off distance between the road and where dignitaries would be seated.

It appears that the SSS followed through on at least some of this advice, towing away 60-70 unattended vehicles in the area in the early morning hours before the event. It is also not unusual that the United States would advise this kind of action, as stand-off distance is a key security tool used to mitigate damage from attacks. However, Nigerian security forces were slow to establish a secure perimeter around the area where the first blast — which caused no casualties — took place. When the second device detonated in a nearby car about 10 minutes later, the majority of the casualties were curious onlookers and emergency response teams attending to the first blast.

While this lack of preparation for such a high-profile event is no doubt damaging to Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan’s reputation, more concerning to him is the fact that the attack is the work of a faction of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) loyal to Henry Okah. Okah, unlike several of MEND’s top commanders, did not buy into the federal government’s amnesty program championed by Jonathan as the way to end militancy in his home region of the Niger Delta and represents a direct challenge to the notion that Jonathan has the ability to bring peace to Nigeria’s main oil-producing region. Jonathan has thus become increasingly vocal in denying that MEND had anything to do with the attack, and on Oct. 2 accused “foreign-based terrorists” with help from people inside of Nigeria. The problem for Jonathan, however, is that MEND spokesman Jomo Gbomo issued a warning prior to the bombing and claimed responsibility afterward, and no one aside from Jonathan and his inner circle of ministers have denied MEND’s involvement.

MEND has claimed that the bombings were not intended to kill anyone and has blamed the deaths on the SSS for failing to take proper action after receiving its warning. This claim is a political statement; detonating explosives near crowds of people carries the inherent risk of killing people. Gbomo did point out in a letter that no projectiles were packed into the IEDs, but by putting the explosives in vehicles, the glass and metal from the car’s body provided plenty of shrapnel that caused injuries and fatalities. Also, the staggered detonation of the devices indicates that the perpetrators may have had a lethal intent by drawing people closer before setting the second device off — although it is possible that this staggered detonation was a mistake caused by faulty detonators or timers.

While Jonathan has claimed MEND was not responsible for the attack, Okah had his home in South Africa searched just prior to the attack, perhaps indicating that the Nigerian government had requested South African authorities look for information on the pending attack. Okah, who was arrested a day after the raid and is currently in a South African prison awaiting a court hearing on charges of terrorism, said in an Oct. 5 interview that he was contacted the morning of Oct. 2 by an aide to Jonathan. Okah claims he was asked to urge MEND to retract its claim of responsibility so Jonathan could blame his northern political opponents (namely former military leader and presidential candidate Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida). Okah claims he was promised that he would have no legal problems in connection with the attacks if he were to comply and was arrested after he refused. This occurred on the same day that Jonathan blamed “foreign-based terrorists” operating with the support of Nigerian citizens for the attack, rather than MEND. However, it is impossible to confirm that Jonathan or his aide actually made this offer.

The allegation has undermined the already tense relationship between northerners and southerners in Nigeria’s ruling People’s Democratic Party. On Oct. 4, Babangida’s campaign manager, Raymond Dokpesi, was questioned in connection with the attack. Nigerian authorities said Dokpesi was contacted several times via text messages (asking whether or not he had “paid the balance” and coordinating meeting times) by one of the nine militants arrested in connection to the attack, but he was released late Oct. 4 without charges.

The volatile political situation in Nigeria has Jonathan on the defensive. MEND’s announcement that it would restart its militant campaign at a later date following the Abuja bombings indicates that the faction with links to Okah is either trying to manipulate the political climate on its own or is being paid to do so by a political patron. If MEND chooses to conduct similar bombings, it should be noted that the devices used Oct. 1 were not very large, which means that they could be deployed a number of other ways besides in a vehicle — including on the back of motorcycles or by hand. The Oct.1 warning from MEND preceding the attacks instructed people to stay away from trash bins as well as vehicles. MEND has proven capable of this kind of attack going back to 2005 and conducted an almost identical attack in the Delta city of Warri last March, but this is the first bombing that caused civilian casualties.

Jonathan, in coordination with the SSS, is looking to prove he can control security in the capital and beyond, which will likely mean more aggressive police action ahead of the elections under the guise of thwarting terrorist attacks. The arrest of Dokpesi likely served as a warning to Jonathan’s opponents that he still maintains control over the security apparatus.

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Bigphil go take a chill pill. We know someone did it but not MEND period. All these trolls on naira land to uphold the notion  that MEND did what or not will not work. Advice your Oga IBB to flee and stop fighting dirty because this is the last straw, non-entities!
Faces of MEND have come out and stood by the President’s word that they did not do it and you all chose to believe a faceless Gbomo who says he is fighting for the rights of a people but can collect $100m to kill innocent souls. Let the blood of the departed be on the heads of the killers. At least we know Gbomo is a killer and he and his cronies will not know peace.
This is a joke taken too far! What bravado and you all still come on this page to spill rubbish! Did Jonathan defend the faceless Gbomo or Okah his instructor!? Did he? He came out and said hold this man Okah responsible based on facts on the table yet we choose to speculate than wait and see how further investigation plays out.
I only see dumb people when I read some post and the responses. God bless Nigeria.

STRATFOR just gave a longer essay of what we already know, note

said in an Oct. 5 interview that he was contacted the morning of Oct. 2 by an aide to Jonathan. Okah claims he was asked to urge MEND to retract its claim of responsibility so Jonathan could blame his northern political opponents (namely former military leader and presidential candidate Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida). Okah claims he was promised that he would have no legal problems in connection with the attacks if he were to comply and was arrested after he refused. This occurred on the same day that Jonathan blamed “foreign-based terrorists” operating with the support of Nigerian citizens for the attack, rather than MEND. However, it is impossible to confirm that Jonathan or his aide actually made this offer.

and this is also very interesting

MEND’s announcement that it would restart its militant campaign at a later date following the Abuja bombings indicates that the faction with links to Okah is either trying to manipulate the political climate on its own or is being paid to do so by a[b] political patron[/b]

this i what GEJ has been trying to say that this blast has nothing to do with the niger delta. it is completely[b] 2011[/b]

5columnist:

Bigphil go take a chill pill. We know someone did it but not MEND period. All these trolls on naira land to uphold the notion that MEND did what or not will not work. Advice your Oga IBB to flee and stop fighting dirty because this is the last straw, non-entities!
Faces of MEND have come out and stood by the President’s word that they did not do it and you all chose to believe a faceless Gbomo who says he is fighting for the rights of a people but can collect $100m to kill innocent souls. Let the blood of the departed be on the heads of the killers. At least we know Gbomo is a killer and he and his cronies will not know peace.
This is a joke taken too far! What bravado and you all still come on this page to spill rubbish! Did Jonathan defend the faceless Gbomo or Okah his instructor!? Did he? He came out and said hold this man Okah responsible based on facts on the table yet we choose to speculate than wait and see how further investigation plays out.
I only see dumb people when I read some post and the responses. God bless Nigeria.

How can you be so narrow minded,i posted a topic based on an article by Strategic Forcast,so that it will be analysed by fellow NLers, and you have the temerity to call me names.Before now my suspicion on who was responsible was that it is either MEND or the people who control the security forces in Nigeria,which is the North.

IBB my oga ,Are you kidding me.For the avoidance of doubt,I am not supporting IBB,because i believe that it will be a complete and unmitigated disaster if he is elected.For the simple fact that he really set this country back a thousand years when he was in power.

God Bless Nigeria.

Biggoozz:

Quote has anyone seen the video of the so called niger delta militants : those so called fighters in that video are not real niger delta militants they are hired goons,who have collected an ex general's looted money, all in a bid to ferment trouble and cause commottion on nigeria and make it unstable and start claiming that goodluck cannot rule this country please look at that video very well, some one is financing these boys and they arent real militants. The spokesman's '', and whatever, '' naunces imply that he is well educated, certainly not in the creeks. did you see the MEND emblem, brand new, someone has financed their uniforms, their brand new guns, everything. Like you said even the wooden structures are very well built, well paid for. Some one is financing these folks to cause havoc, someone very conniving, an evil genius with a lot of money to burn. 1. The place was a new place 2. The uniform they had were all new/fresh. The guns are most fresh, the looked too organized to be militants that we know that accepted the amnesty(thats if u realy saw the occassion), implying that they had been trained by someone somewhere for this purpose or even sth more to be seen later 3. The location was somewhere south; giving the palm trees and rivers 4. The spokesman cannot be a true militant  cos he showed signs of : planning, maturity, education only very fear(few) of such go all length to the creeks 5. The place is being built by a competent carpenter, there is no sign to show its done in a hurry a its a "make do" 6. The first time a lady would go to such a dangerous (assuming) in Nigeria given that most militants are womanizers, ill-behaved etc  NIGERIANS READ THE HAND WRITING ON THE WALL AND WAKE UPPPPPPP!!!!!

Exactly the point I have been trying to make.MEND consists of educated and resolute people and never accepted amnesty but agreed to halt their hostilities.The people that went to Abuja were oil bunkerers and criminals who MEND later accomodated as affiliates.

If there is no link, the story will be taken as false. Please provide a link (even if it requires a subscription, those with subscriptions will be able to verify it).

One glaring hint in this story is "Stratfor" using a Nigerian Newspaper as a source. For people who supposedly rub shoulders with intelligence agencies, thats just completely laughable.