By Allwell Okpi
November 30, 2010 11:11PM 


According to the new UN-HABITAT’s report, titled, ‘The State of African Cities 2010: Governance, Inequality and Urban Land Markets’, more than 25 per cent of Africa’s population, of about one billion people, who live within 100 km from the coast will be at risk from sea level rise and coastal flooding over the coming decades due to climate change.

This means that the whole of Lagos State will be overtaken by the ocean, considering that Ifako-Ijaiye, the north-most part of the state, which is farthest from the ocean, is just about 40 km from the coastline measured in a straight line. In recent times, environmentalists have raised alarmed over climate change and its effect which include sea level rise. Of major concern has been the city of Lagos, which the commercial capital of Nigeria and indeed the largest commercial hub in West Africa. Though without exact figures, the Nigeria Institute of Oceanography and Marine Research, NIOMR, have show evidence of sea level rise in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean, with considerable loss of land. According to the agency, the regular occurrence of shipwreck on the Lagos shoreline, in which the wrecks are not removed for months, result to the acceleration of the coastal erosion which is naturally occurring along the coast.

The evidence

The evidences include the erosion of beaches like Bar Beach and Alpha Beach; with the latter gradually disappearing. Goshen Beach Estate, Lekki, is currently being threatened by the ocean. The estate, which was built in 2003 with the ocean over 100 metres away, is now less than 20 metres from the shoreline. If the trend continues, Larry Awosika, Head of Marine Geology and Geophysics Department of NIOMR, says the estate will be claimed by the ocean in a few years. Most parts of Lagos are less than five metres above sea level; with some places being at sea level and below. However, massive construction projects stand on the areas close to the ocean, like Ikoyi and Victoria Island, including Lekki Peninsula, which is a reclaimed land.

Regina Folorunsho, of NIOMR, said these heavy structure which are still being constructed on these islands are resulting to subsidence, which is the lowering of the land due compaction under heavy load. “They are just constructing large building and heavy structures; nobody is trying to find out the rate of subsidence,” she said. “If they continue to put these heavy structures here they will be lowering the land and it will make the effect of the sea rise come faster.”

Other places

The report shows similar effects are already being experienced along other parts of the Africa coast where beaches and dune ridges show evidence of retreat, varying from between a loss of about 1 to 2 metres annually in Senegal to between 20 and 30 metres along the Gulf of Guinea. The Dakar coast, for instance, with 50,000 individuals per square km, is one of the most densely populated in Western Africa, and a storm surge disaster could easily affect 75,000 residents. The report states that Africa will suffer disproportionately from the negative effects of climate change despite contributing less than 5 per cent of global green house emissions.

“Already confronted by innumerable problems related to economic development and urbanisation, African countries have to now address the negative effects of climate change despite being minimal contributors to green house emissions,” said Joan Clos, Executive Director of UN-HABITAT. “The slums of African cities are already witnessing increased numbers of environmental refugees. Whatever the reasons, this is the time to act. African cities can adopt measures to reduce vulnerability and mitigation measures should be put in place. With strategic urban planning that improves slums and rationalizes urban mobility and energy consumption, cities can be part of the solution.”

http://234next.com/csp/cms/sites/Next/Home/5647710-146/sea_level_rise_threatens_lagos_.csp

Ovularia:

The report states that Africa will suffer disproportionately from the negative effects of climate change despite contributing less than 5 per cent of global green house emissions.

Sometimes I feel that the world is a very perverse place, and justice doesn't exist. How can those who polluted the environment the least suffer the most?

environmental changes has caused harsher climatic condition for farming in neighbouring regions to sahara. a lot of nigerians, malians, chadians and muritanese have flooded lagos to do menial jobs in escaping from their now unprofitable farming works as means of livelihood. uninterested minds just generalize them as northerners seeking green pastures, but those who r familiar with nigerian northerners r quick to recognize them as aliens. they r okada riders, shoe makers, house guards, porters, construction site labourers and any other unskilled manual jobs that r available. its a definite evidence of reality of climate change effects as it impinges on d common african who knows little or nothing about d causes or culprits.

i dont knw what is going to b d fate of areas like lagos island and apapa, but investments there may b at risk. i ws in nguru in yobe state. i learnt it used to b a normal sahel Savannah environment, unfortunately it has rapidly taken d full features of proper sahara desert. d worse news is dt its extending and displacing more communities on its frontiers. those diplaced move on to become squatters and wanderers on other people lands; a proper recipe for communal violence. wt all these, our people still havent devised viable, effective and urgent programme to halt these, maybe because it hasnt affected crude oil production.

homerac7:

i dont knw what is going to b d fate of areas like lagos island and apapa, but investments there may b at risk. i ws in nguru in yobe state. i learnt it used to b a normal sahel Savannah environment, unfortunately it has rapidly taken d full features of proper sahara desert. d worse news is dt its extending and displacing more communities on its frontiers. those diplaced move on to become squatters and wanderers on other people lands; a proper recipe for communal violence. wt all these, our people still havent devised viable, effective and urgent programme to halt these, maybe because it hasnt affected crude oil production.

Yes, food for thought indeed.  Nigeria is caught between the devil of the southward approaching Sahara desert, and the deep blue sea that is inexorably submerging more of Nigeria's most expensive and intensively developed beach-front real estate with every passing year.

As much as I admire the grand design that inspires Lagos State Governor Fashola's multi-billion dollar coastal reclamation and construction projects on the Lagos shoreline , the rising sea level effect of global warming is very likely to turn that envisioned Dubai-style mega-city into an underwater curiosity for scuba expeditions touring the sea floor in future decades.

I wonder what our government is doing about this?

It should be a global issue

Jakumo:

Yes, food for thought indeed.  Nigeria is caught between the devil of the southward approaching Sahara desert, and the deep blue sea that is inexorably submerging more of Nigeria's most expensive and intensively developed beach-front real estate with every passing year.

As much as I admire the grand design that inspires Lagos State Governor Fashola's multi-billion dollar coastal reclamation and construction projects on the Lagos shoreline , the rising sea level effect of global warming is very likely to turn that envisioned Dubai-style mega-city into an underwater curiosity for scuba expeditions touring the sea floor in future decades.

I remember asking some strong questions about the Eko Atlantic city. I was concerned that the sea wall planned for the project will not be enough to contain the deluge when it sets in fully.

Nigeria needs some serious planning. My disappointment with Nigerian leadership is based mainly on its inability to see beyond oil in the Niger delta. That region is even more threatened by the sea, but no one is planning for its survival on the evil day.

Why dont they make more holes in the sides of streets to allow water to move into sewers and back into the ocean? I don't know if it'll work, but it might, right?

Or pump water inland, to the deserts? 

[size=13pt]China to push sea water thousands of miles inland[/size]

Chinese officials say they have a found a solution to uninhabitable deserts of Xinjiang in west china: pump raw sea water thousands of miles from the coast to fill Xinjiang's dried-up salt lakes and desert basins in the hope that it will evaporate and encourage rainfall over drought-stricken areas of northern and northwestern China; the sea water would be carried through a pipeline made of plastic and fiberglass; water experts have condemned the proposal

Local officials in China’s arid northwest have launched a new push for a vast water-diversion project that would pump raw sea water thousands of miles from the coast to the deserts of Xinjiang through a pipeline made of plastic and fiberglass.

The idea is to desalinate some of the seawater, but to use the rest to fill Xinjiang’s dried-up salt lakes and desert basins in the hope that it will evaporate and encourage rainfall over drought-stricken areas of northern and northwestern China.

http://homelandsecuritynewswire.com/china-push-sea-water-thousands-miles-inland

Kobojunkie:

Or pump water inland, to the deserts?

Yeah, thats a much better idea

Significantly expensive to start but profitable in the long run. Other countries are already working on such ideas as solution to one problem or another, I don't see why we cannot use the same to both solve our problem, and make ourselves some real money. Imagine Lagos supplying the North, and many countries up north with well needed water supply.

Kobojunkie:

Significantly expensive to start but profitable in the long run. Other countries are already working on such ideas as solution to one problem or another, I don't see why we cannot use the same to both solve our problem, and make ourselves some real money. Imagine Lagos supplying the North, and many countries up north with well needed water supply.

By supplying the north with water, then the government can make some real inroads in the fight against desertification!

@Mshittu

You want our inefficient Nigerian Government to pump water to the North? A government that can not pump water within a city, do you want them to submerge half of the south west, imagine anenih giving the contract to some of buddies, na to turn lagos - ibadan expressway to atlantic ocean, abeg lets look for another solution jare.

hercules07:

@Mshittu

You want our inefficient Nigerian Government to pump water to the North? A government that can not pump water within a city, do you want them to submerge half of the south west, imagine anenih giving the contract to some of buddies, na to turn lagos - ibadan expressway to atlantic ocean, abeg lets look for another solution jare.

No, Lagos Government.

Pumping sea water from Lagos to North? Bad idea. It would cost a lot of money.

As plausible as d idea is, it may not b advisable. If u note well, d Chinese r refilling a dried up salt lake while our northern deserts were never salt water derived. If u do, u will have a problem of contaminating d surrounding flora and fauna as u will b introducing a strange habitat into d environment. D effect could b unpredictably costly.

Every suggestion puts it dt d ancient water courses dt could hav flown through d Sahara were fresh water. So bringing in salt water is like poisoning d environment and no need say who will bear d final brunt.

I don't know how the North will fix their own situation. Lagos at least, we can spend money to build barriers. The property is worth enough money that cash can be raised to save the city.

But with the North, I don't know where they will find money to fight the desert. Who is going to raise the billions necessary to fight the desert in a land where property prices are low anyway? These northern governors need to start saving their people's money and start planning for the future.

homerac7:

As plausible as d idea is, it may not b advisable. If u note well, d Chinese r refilling a dried up salt lake while our northern deserts were never salt water derived. If u do, u will have a problem of contaminating d surrounding flora and fauna as u will b introducing a strange habitat into d environment. D effect could b unpredictably costly.

Every suggestion puts it dt d ancient water courses dt could hav flown through d Sahara were fresh water. So bringing in salt water is like poisoning d environment and no need say who will bear d final brunt.

[size=13pt]China to push sea water thousands of miles inland[/size]

The idea is to desalinate some of the seawater, but to use the rest to fill Xinjiang’s dried-up salt lakes and desert basins in the hope that it will evaporate and encourage rainfall over drought-stricken areas of northern and northwestern China.

When salt water is pumped inland, it can be pumped into reservoires where the water either undergoes desalination  or is allowed to evaporate  and encourage rainfall over much of the desert. Left Over salt and minerals can be harvested for various uses.

DapoBear:

I don't know how the North will fix their own situation. Lagos at least, we can spend money to build barriers. The property is worth enough money that cash can be raised to save the city.

But with the North, I don't know where they will find money to fight the desert. Who is going to raise the billions necessary to fight the desert in a land where property prices are low anyway? These northern governors need to start saving their people's money and start planning for the future.

DANGOOOOTEEEEEEE!

^-- I've never been to the core North before. Is jatropha grown there? Or any other sort of crop that helps fight the desert?

Here is an article I read a couple years ago describing it:
http://allafrica.com/stories/200804211643.html

Looks like it is called "Bindazugu" in Hausa.

@ kobojunkie,

Desalination is a relatively expensive water treatment system Dts unnecessary and unprofitable in northern Nigeria as it has enough fresh water sources to tap from. That dilated desalination for human consumption option out.

We r talking of thousands square kilometers, how many thousand of litres of water do u think we r talking about against its evaporation rate? If u will have to desalinate d water by natural means in batches ( wc is wht u described in technical terms), that makes d project not feasible. To water such large area, u will have to pump into d open or u will need to cease pumping at any particular location to wait to harvest d residual sediments. Ds will make u unable to meet up wt d high  evapo-transpirational rate.

@ DapoBear,

Some private businesses have started cultivating jathropha cursicas there for d final conversion of hip-diesel production. But just few places though d northern climate is perfect for such. It's called ewe lakpa-lakpa(lapa-lapa in proper written yoruba)

Damn software editing my posts!

homerac7:

@ kobojunkie,
Desalination is a relatively expensive water treatment system Dts unnecessary and unprofitable in northern Nigeria as it has enough fresh water sources to tap from. That dilated desalination for human consumption option out.

Dude, you are still going on loops with this for me. I already made clear from the start that this is expensive, but a solution nonetheless. Saudi Arabia and so many other desert countries are already employing this as way to get water in land. The way I see it, this solution is two-fold. One the one hand, it allows us a way to counter the rise in sea level, but at the same time it allows us a way to fight our desertification issues in the same country, and probably the continent.

There are no abundant freshwater sources out in the north for all the states currently experiencing desert encroachment to tap into. Even the Niger River is reportedly drying up as well. Desalination is still an option open and already being considered in  Lagos and much of the coastal cities. I am not certain how you were able to take it off the list there.

homerac7:

We r talking of thousands square kilometers, how many thousand of litres of water do u think we r talking about against its evaporation rate? If u will have to desalinate d water by natural means in batches ( wc is wht u described in technical terms), that makes d project not feasible. To water such large area, u will have to pump into d open or u will need to cease pumping at any particular location to wait to harvest d residual sediments. Ds will make u unable to meet up wt d high  evapo-transpirational rate.

Can I suggest you spend some time investigating technologies already available for this and how this practice is thousands of years old, and probably not as scary as you may think it is?

Here is a link on a bit of history

http://www.rpi.edu/dept/chem-eng/Biotech-Environ/Environmental/desal/history.html

My problem with Nigeria is that we borrow solutions from other countries. What we don't know is that serious countries research solutions to their problems. Most of these solutions are not just country specific but also region specific.

Nigerian scientists in conjunction with government need to sit down and plan a solution to this problem of rising sea level. We've had it for many years now and successive governments have failed in solving the problem because we are yet to do the right thing.

Kobojunkie my dear,

i 'm not going in circles but d robot edited my post and made it poorly expressed.

desalination is a costly system of sea water purification. it becomes viable only when alternative fresh water source is far away and cost of conveyin it in is not economical against desalination. had i more free time, i could have rumbled through my library to get u a comparative cost analysis of both. so its mostly used for drinking water for marine or brackish water surrounded communities.

i never said northern fresh water should be pumped into d desert, dats folly. i mean dat since it will create environmental problem(as i explained earlier) in d future if such is done with raw sea water, only fresh water irrigation would b safe. and desalinating enough sea water to irrigate several hundred thousand square kilometers is impractical cost wise.