Out of the final margin votes of 4,134,125, that led to the PMBs victory in 2019, the southwest contributed only 259,558 or 6.2%. The APC winning margin in the battle grounds of the Northcentral was almost twice, 551,066 or about 13.3%.

If not for the gross numbers from the Southsouth and Southeast, APC would have found it difficult to match the PDP’s onslaught in the overall win margin.

The question is: how can the battle ground produces a bigger margin than the so-called stronghold that had cornered all the federal positions, including the Vice President, Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Finance, Communications, and holders of executive positions like FIRS among others?

Indeed, if PMB’s victory was left to the Southwest, everything would have been on a cliff hanger. Why? Because the Southwest is the only supposedly APC zone in the South of Nigeria. Suppose the APC got zero in the South west. Still PMB would have won with still a margin of over 2 million votes. You could argue about spread, but is neither here nor there.

Let us not keep deceiving ourselves. The geopolitical map has changed electorally. But because of the media power some people would want us to believe that some “godfather” somewhere was what made PMB possible. Absoute fiction and a nauseating affront on the popular sensibility.

New alliances are possible, or at best the historical alliances and bridge building process from the first republic through to June 12, 1993 could be resuscitated to give Nigerian politics a new lease of life.

The statistics below reveal as much, as we move into 2023.

2019 Presidential Election Result ~~~

1. SOUTH SOUTH
APC 1,104,940
PDP 2,190,338

Total 3,295,278

PDP won SouthSouth with a margin of 1,085,398 votes.

2. SOUTH EAST
APC 403,965
PDP 1,693,485

Total 2,097,450

PDP won SouthEast with a margin of 1,289,520 votes.

3. SOUTH WEST
APC 2,036,439
PDP 1,776,881

Total 3,813,320

APC won SouthWest with a margin
of 259,558 votes.

4. NORTH CENTRAL
APC 2,313,375
PDP 1,762,308

Total 4,075,683

APC won NorthCentral with a margin of 551,066 votes.

5. NORTH EAST
APC 3,238,783
PDP 1,255,571

Total 4,494,354

APC won NorthEast with a margin of 1,983,212 votes.

6. NORTH WEST
APC 5,995,651
PDP 2,280,445

Total 8,276,096

APC won NorthWest with a margin of 3,715,206 votes.

TOTAL
APC 15,093,153 votes.
PDP 10,959,028 votes.

Final Margin
4,134,125 votes.

By Yakub Aliyu

https://spectacle.com.ng/blog/2020/03/17/pmbs-victory-2019-for-those-keen-on-the-numbers-and-geopolitical-voting-patterns/

PDP can return to power if they run a good campaign with good candidate. APC will lose 2023 election because the North are tired of Buhari and his failed promises. Majority of northeners wanted security, Buhari failed them and extreme poverty on top of insecurities. they don't like Tinubu. The SS and SE are natural APC haters. With the North SS and SE PDP will win

Now, imagine, the 2m votes South west gave to APC were given to PDP, don't u think PDP would be closed to winning the election ? Remove 2 million from apc and add to pdp, it will be very easy to contest in court as there would be little margin.

Yenefer:
PDP can return to power if they run a good campaign with good candidate. APC will lose 2023 election because the North are tired of Buhari and they don't like Tinubu. The SS and SE are natural APC haters. With the North SS and SE PDP will win

A very good, in-depth analysis... Impressive!

Yenefer:
PDP can return to power if they run a good campaign with good candidate. APC will lose 2023 election because the North are tired of Buhari and they don't like Tinubu. The SS and SE are natural APC haters. With the North SS and SE PDP will win

All PDP need is a candidate that can pull 35% from North west and 45% from north east the rest is history

South east voting strength was not really strong last year most didn't really think atiku stood a chance

Yenefer:
PDP can return to power if they run a good campaign with good candidate. APC will lose 2023 election because the North are tired of Buhari and they don't like Tinubu. The SS and SE are natural APC haters. With the North SS and SE PDP will win

hmmm what a run down of permutations and combinations.

I really wish the north can just sit out n allow Igbo and yorubas contest this election ones and for all .....smh make we reach yorubas politics is not by mouth

Yorubas are banking in the fact that they can get northern votes the way buhari got them , lol I laugh
All igbos need is 30% from north west ( a VP from there would do the trick ) north east 40% ...with the Christians in the north east ... PDP strength here 40% here is certain

North Central is always going to be 50:50


The we come down south ...south south the battle ground u know who got that ....even in south west igbos would get upto 30% ....

But north ,north Sha ,they would just leave PDP n APC for us n enter PDM , win easily

Bla Bla Bla

SW are ready for any candidate from any region. Let's meet at the poll.. Is that too hard for you people to sink into yah skull?

mrvitalis:

All PDP need is a candidate that can pull 35% from North west and 45% from north east the rest is history

South east voting strength was not really strong last year most didn't really think atiku stood a chance

this time they will... Sokoto bauchi, zamfara, Gombe, benue, are PDP State, Kano, Kebbi and kaduna 50 50... With SS and SE PDP will come back to power

Haywhysat:
Now, imagine, the 2m votes South west gave to APC were given to PDP, don't u think PDP would be closed to winning the election ? Remove 2 million from apc and add to pdp, it will be very easy to contest in court as there would be little margin.

Nearly don't kill a bird

Yenefer:
this time they will... Sokoto bauchi, zamfara, Gombe, benue, are PDP State, Kano, Kebbi and kaduna 50 50... With SS and SE PDP will come back to power

That's if they present the right candidate ....if PDP is serious ....they should offer El rufai and ameachi soft landing into PDP , give sanusi the ticket vice by osita .....boom once north vote is shared APC is dead ...

APC is only strong because of the block votes buhari gets ....even if APC wins 60% of north they are out ....they need 70 to 80 percent of north west to win ....with sanusi that won't work

mrvitalis:
I really wish the north can just sit out n allow Igbo and yorubas contest this election ones and for all .....smh make we reach yorubas politics is not by mouth

Yorubas are banking in the fact that they can get northern votes the way buhari got them , lol I laugh
All igbos need is 30% from north west ( a VP from there would do the trick ) north east 40% ...with the Christians in the north east ... PDP strength here 40% here is certain

North Central is always going to be 50:50


The we come down south ...south south the battle ground u know who got that ....even in south west igbos would get upto 30% ....

But north ,north Sha ,they would just leave PDP n APC for us n enter PDM , win easily

Wish the north can just sit out n allow Igbo

Are they holding you Igbo's from contesting? Was there any agreement btw you and them?

allow Igbo and yorubas contest this election ones and for all

That has been our long time prayers but it seems you guys will be chickening out as usual.

All igbos need is 30% from north west ( a VP from there would do the trick ) north east 40% ...with the Christians in the north east ... PDP strength here 40% here is certain

North Central is always going to be 50:50


The we come down south ...south south the battle ground u know who got that ....even in south west igbos would get upto 30% ...

.

Dream on bro.. If all dreams actually came through, na everybody for rich

And you want to tell me that those numbers are all legitimate....?
If it looks like a scam and moves like a scam, its a scam.

The problem is that PDP has no strong candidate for now.

mrvitalis:

That's if they present the right candidate ....if PDP is serious ....they should offer El rufai and ameachi soft landing into PDP , give sanusi the ticket vice by osita .....boom once north vote is shared APC is dead ...

APC is only strong because of the block votes buhari gets ....even if APC wins 60% of north they are out ....they need 70 to 80 percent of north west to win ....with sanusi that won't work

The majority of the North are thinking How to screw APC and Buhari for failing them... especially on issues like Boko Haram, bandits and fulani kidnappers. And Buhari added extreme poverty as bonus for all Nigerians which av impacted the North so much

Igbos there you have it. Yorubas do not have a hand in your suffering. Stop blaming Yorubas for your woes. If the north central that suffered huge death on the head of Fulani herdsmen could vote buhari overwhelmingly, then keep Yorubas out of your mouth.

The election shows how balanced the Yorubas are. They simply showed that buhari has failed just like they showed gej. Now to those igbos who cry about betrayal of gej, it simply shows Yorubas are unbiased voters unlike the rest of the country.

Yenefer:
The majority of the North are thinking How to screw APC and Buhari for failing them... especially on issues like Boko Haram, bandits and fulani kidnappers. And Buhari added extreme poverty as bonus for all Nigerians which av impacted the North so much

Buhari failed them but they voted him overwhelmingly in 2019. Even the middle belt that almost wiped out by the herdsmen.

Yorubas are far ahead.

Yenefer:
[s]this time they will... Sokoto bauchi, zamfara, Gombe, benue, are PDP State, Kano, Kebbi and kaduna 50 50... With SS and SE PDP will come back to power[/s]

All you care about is PDP coming back to power! How about the political future of Ndigbo. Will PDP coming back to power guarantee that? Are you just a pro PDP IPOB or pro PDP Igbo? Because the last time I checked Ndigbo gained nothing from PDP in power. Even the Yoruba’s who were anti-PDP since 1999 were compensated with Obasanjo. Rather than asslick the PDP don’t you think it’s time we vie for the candidacy of the PDP and APC, whoever concedes the position to Ndigbo should be the party we throw our support.

The interest of Ndigbo should be the Presidency nothing short of that. Anybody carrying party on their head against the core Presidential aspirations of Ndigbo is an enemy. People like MrVitalist are those with realistic views, yours reeks of confusion.
Ndigbo must not bow down to threats from any quarter. We must throw our hats into the ring and support any party that can concede the Presidential position to us.

God punish APC and PDP.

Amen.

mrvitalis:
I really wish the north can just sit out n allow Igbo and yorubas contest this election ones and for all .....smh make we reach yorubas politics is not by mouth

Yorubas are banking in the fact that they can get northern votes the way buhari got them , lol I laugh
All igbos need is 30% from north west ( a VP from there would do the trick ) north east 40% ...with the Christians in the north east ... PDP strength here 40% here is certain

North Central is always going to be 50:50


The we come down south ...south south the battle ground u know who got that ....even in south west igbos would get upto 30% ....

But north ,north Sha ,they would just leave PDP n APC for us n enter PDM , win easily

Lol, una don start una useless analysis again. The same thing you did before the last election. Continue.

Talking about laughing if north will give southwest their vote, OK, you must be all the north. In 1993 the north gave southwest the vote against their own, in 1999 and 2007 they did same. Do you see how inconsequential your race is?

Gabriel004:
Lol, una don start una useless analysis again. The same thing you did before the last election. Continue.

Talking about laughing if north will give southwest their vote, OK, you must be all the north. In 1993 the north gave southwest the vote against their own, in 1999 and 2007 they did same. [s]Do you see how inconsequential your race is?[s/]

No one is inconsequential. The only time the north supported the SW was in 1993. Obasanjo was not a SW candidate, he was a northern tool for political dominance. Why didn’t north support Awolowo? Why didn’t north support Sowore and Durotoye in the last elections.

Perkins2018:
Igbos there you have it. Yorubas do not have a hand in your suffering. Stop blaming Yorubas for your woes. If the north central that suffered huge death on the head of Fulani herdsmen could vote buhari overwhelmingly, then keep Yorubas out of your mouth.

Gbam.

Bonesking:
All you care about is PDP coming back to power! How about the political future of Ndigbo. Will PDP coming back to power guarantee that? Are you just a pro PDP IPOB or pro PDP Igbo? Because the last time I checked Ndigbo gained nothing from PDP in power. Even the Yoruba’s who were anti-PDP since 1999 were compensated with Obasanjo. Rather than asslick the PDP don’t you think it’s time Neigbour vie for the candidacy of the PDP and APC, whoever conceded the position to Ndigbo should be the party we throw our support.

The interest of Ndigbo should be the Presidency nothing short of that. Anybody carrying party on their head against the core Presidential aspirations of Ndigbo is an enemy. People like MrVitalist are those with realistic views, yours reeks of confusion.
Ndigbo must not bow down to threats from any quarter. We must throw our hats into the ring and support any party that can concede the Presidential position to us.

in depth analysis.. that's very good

Oloriburuku Igbo !

The sleep n wake up with Yoruba nightmare daily.

khalifjgusau:
Out of the final margin votes of 4,134,125, that led to the PMBs victory in 2019, the southwest contributed only 259,558 or 6.2%. The APC winning margin in the battle grounds of the Northcentral was almost twice, 551,066 or about 13.3%.

If not for the gross numbers from the Southsouth and Southeast, APC would have found it difficult to match the PDP’s onslaught in the overall win margin.

The question is: how can the battle ground produces a bigger margin than the so-called stronghold that had cornered all the federal positions, including the Vice President, Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Finance, Communications, and holders of executive positions like FIRS among others?

Indeed, if PMB’s victory was left to the Southwest, everything would have been on a cliff hanger. Why? Because the Southwest is the only supposedly APC zone in the South of Nigeria. Suppose the APC got zero in the South west. Still PMB would have won with still a margin of over 2 million votes. You could argue about spread, but is neither here nor there.

Let us not keep deceiving ourselves. The geopolitical map has changed electorally. But because of the media power some people would want us to believe that some “godfather” somewhere was what made PMB possible. Absoute fiction and a nauseating affront on the popular sensibility.

New alliances are possible, or at best the historical alliances and bridge building process from the first republic through to June 12, 1993 could be resuscitated to give Nigerian politics a new lease of life.

The statistics below reveal as much, as we move into 2023.

2019 Presidential Election Result ~~~

1. SOUTH SOUTH
APC 1,104,940
PDP 2,190,338

Total 3,295,278

PDP won SouthSouth with a margin of 1,085,398 votes.

2. SOUTH EAST
APC 403,965
PDP 1,693,485

Total 2,097,450

PDP won SouthEast with a margin of 1,289,520 votes.

3. SOUTH WEST
APC 2,036,439
PDP 1,776,881

Total 3,813,320

APC won SouthWest with a margin
of 259,558 votes.

4. NORTH CENTRAL
APC 2,313,375
PDP 1,762,308

Total 4,075,683

APC won NorthCentral with a margin of 551,066 votes.

5. NORTH EAST
APC 3,238,783
PDP 1,255,571

Total 4,494,354

APC won NorthEast with a margin of 1,983,212 votes.

6. NORTH WEST
APC 5,995,651
PDP 2,280,445

Total 8,276,096

APC won NorthWest with a margin of 3,715,206 votes.

TOTAL
APC 15,093,153 votes.
PDP 10,959,028 votes.

Final Margin
4,134,125 votes.

By Yakub Aliyu

https://spectacle.com.ng/blog/2020/03/17/pmbs-victory-2019-for-those-keen-on-the-numbers-and-geopolitical-voting-patterns/

Perkins2018:
Igbos there you have it. Yorubas do not have a hand in your suffering. Stop blaming Yorubas for your woes. If the north central that suffered huge death on the head of Fulani herdsmen could vote buhari overwhelmingly, then keep Yorubas out of your mouth.

who says igbos are suffering? You guys are always claiming that you brought buhari to power but then the real stats always shut your mouths up. Igbos can never suffer. No matter what you people we will always have more igbos doing better than the rest of nigerians.

Gabriel004:
Lol, una don start una useless analysis again. The same thing you did before the last election. Continue.

Talking about laughing if north will give southwest their vote, OK, you must be all the north. In 1993 the north gave southwest the vote against their own, in 1999 and 2007 they did same. Do you see how inconsequential your race is?

abeg which yoruba candidate did the north support in 2007? Was that election not between yaradua and buhari? In 1999 the north supported the candidate they presented, obasanjo. And if i remember correctly obasanjo's opponent was olu falae the south west candidate and falae failed woefully even though he won south west. So tell me again how the south West plans to win in 2023 without the support of the north. All your hopes based on the north voting the south west in 2023 against one of their own.
How can you people trust the north like this? Are you people sure they'll vote a south west? Are you sure? I know why i am asking.

mrvitalis:
I really wish the north can just sit out n allow Igbo and yorubas contest this election ones and for all .....smh make we reach yorubas politics is not by mouth

Yorubas are banking in the fact that they can get northern votes the way buhari got them , lol I laugh
All igbos need is 30% from north west ( a VP from there would do the trick ) north east 40% ...with the Christians in the north east ... PDP strength here 40% here is certain

North Central is always going to be 50:50


The we come down south ...south south the battle ground u know who got that ....even in south west igbos would get upto 30% ....

But north ,north Sha ,they would just leave PDP n APC for us n enter PDM , win easily

this mathematics failed u in 2019, it will fail u again in 2023

dheilaw1:
this mathematics failed u in 2019, it will fail u again in 2023

You don't know me my maths had never failed in national politics since 2011
Go n ask around

The total votes from the south is only more than that of North West with 929,952.

Southerners need to learn how to turn up for voting. Watching TV, playing football, surfing the internet on election day will do us no good. Can't we just sacrifice a few hours in a day for four years.

mrvitalis:

You don't know me my maths had never failed in national politics since 2011
Go n ask around

But you predicted a loss for buhari

mrvitalis:
I really wish the north can just sit out n allow Igbo and yorubas contest this election ones and for all .....smh make we reach yorubas politics is not by mouth

Yorubas are banking in the fact that they can get northern votes the way buhari got them , lol I laugh
All igbos need is 30% from north west ( a VP from there would do the trick ) north east 40% ...with the Christians in the north east ... PDP strength here 40% here is certain

North Central is always going to be 50:50


The we come down south ...south south the battle ground u know who got that ....even in south west igbos would get upto 30% ....

But north ,north Sha ,they would just leave PDP n APC for us n enter PDM , win easily

The voting pattern will even widen in 2023 as apc penetrates the ss and see more