2023 Presidential Election Projection by Voting Patterns and Trends.

Although the 2023 Presidential election is expected to have more voters turnout due to reinvigorated electorate interest occasioned by improved electoral law and the competitiveness of the aspirants. Voting patterns and trends however will be an important clue on what is to come and shouldn't be undermine.

There's therefore no gainsaying that entrenched political interest and party structure as expected will play vital roles in this phenomenon. This is why political party and politicians alike speak to their strongholds, weak areas and swing locations.

Again every grassroot politician and political player understand this scientific process of politics through careful observation, analysis and inference.

So a careful study of this phenomenon can readily suggest which state(s) will be won and lose by a certain political party.

To predict the future we need a recourse to the event of the past.

It is noteworthy that the voting patterns and trends since 1999 hasn't change much hence could be an important guide in projecting the outcome of the 2023 presidential election. However the only notable alteration to this phenomenon in every election year is in the margin of votes.

My critical study of the Nigeria Presidential election result by states from 1993 through to 2019 has helped in arriving at this conclusion.

Suffice me to say that my projection was hinged primarily on 2019 presidential election result. The reason being that it is the most recent, most improved & credible since the 1993 election, and then the most practical or feasible as the case may be.

My projection shall be a breakdown analysis of the four front line political party by geopolitical zones.

North West Zone.
Underlying Fact:
The zone contribute more in vote to the electoral fortune of any aspirant, and it's also known to vote in one direction enbloc.
No wonder In 2019 presidential election the main opposition the PDP could only managed to secured the electoral requirement of 25% in just two states out of the seven states in the zone!
Sokoto (39%) and Jigawa (25%)

Voters Considerations: Religious and Party interest.

Observation:
The APC is expected to win at least 4 states from the zone and get the electoral requirement of 25% from all the states.

The PDP and NNPP is expected to win at least one state from the zone but will fail to secure the 25% in all the states in the zone.

The LP will perform woefully in this zone and will not be able to secure the 25% in any of the States.

North East Zone:
Underlying Fact: The predominantly Muslim states of Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, and Gombe always tends to vote along same political interest. The two others are considered to be swing states.
Did you know that the main opposition party the PDP whose candidate Atiku is from the same zone score the least vote percentage in the two states of Borno (7%) and Yobe(8%) across the country? Fact!

Voters Considerations: Religious and Party interest.

Observation:
The APC is expected to win at least 4 states from the zone and get the electoral requirement of 25% from all the states.

The PDP is expected to win at least two states from the zone but will fail to secured the 25% in at least two states in the zone.

The NNPP is expected to make an appreciable outing in Bauchi state but will not be able to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.

The LP will have a marginal performance in Taraba and Adamawa state, but will not be able to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.
The stronger Atiku wax in this zone, the weaker the performance of Mr Obi.

Summarily any state in the NW and NE that the PDP didn't get up to 50% in the 2019 presidential election, the LP won't secure the electoral requirement of 25% in such state. QED!

North Central zone:
Underlying fact:
Most of the states in the zone are swing state except Niger and Kwara! The implication of this fact is that any of the legacy party can swing either state to it side. Although the winning margin is always minimal.
The APC won 4 out of the 6 states in the zone in 2019 while the PDP won Plateau and Benue state.

Voters considerations: Partly Religious, Party interest and Structural influence.

Observation:
The APC is expected to sustain their 2019 feat by winning at least 4 states in the zone due to their entrenched political structure that will be coordinated by their sitting Governors. It will also secure the electoral requirement of 25% in all the states of the zone.

The PDP however will be affected by the Obi's influence in the Christian dominated States of Plateau and Benue. The PDP structure will however help the party to secure the mandatory 25% in at least 5 states.

The NNPP will have a marginal outing in at least two states of the zone but will fail to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.

The LP will make an appreciable outing in the zone by securing the mandatory 25% in at least two states.

South West Zone;
Underlying fact; Interestingly voting trends has shown that the SWern states can be swing.
However the marginal strong third force which is expected to split the opposition votes, and the entrenched political interest of the APC/ home boy effect in the zone will give the APC the clear lead.

Voters Considerations: Credibility and Party Interest.

Observation:
The APC won in four states of the zone in 2019, and it is expected to take a clear lead in all the states of the zone come 2023.

The PDP won in two states of the zone Oyo(41%) and Ondo(47%). However the party is expected to struggle in the zone come 2023 due to the underlying fact.
The party is expected to secure the mandatory 25% requirement in at least two states of the zone only if the sitting Governors in those States decide to work for the party.

The NNPP will have a poor outing in the entire south.

The LP will have a marginal performance in Lagos with the prospect of securing the 25% requirement. Being an offshoot of the PDP, it'll take some votes from the PDP stronghold in the zone thereby depleting the PDP votes and enhancing the winning margin of the APC.
If the LP can put in more work they can be fortunate to benefit from the PDP crisis and secure 25% in at least two states of the zone.

South East zone:
Underlying fact: The zone is the only zone in the South that vote along the same direction and equally give their preferred candidate bloc vote.
The zone equally has the lowest voters turnout among the six geopolitical zones since the advent of the use of the card reader machine in an election.

Voters considerations: Ethnic, Religious and regional interest.

Observation:
The APC will have their poorest outing in the zone as the party managed in 2019 to secured the 25% in only Imo state. It woeful performance across the country is in Anambra state with a mere 5%. Although it is expected to do better in 2023, however the LP candidate home boy effect will affect fortune of any other political party in the zone.
Notwithstanding, the party is expected to secure the electoral requirement in at least one state (Ebony most likely) from the zone.

The PDP will be the biggest loser in the zone as the zone was once it unnegotiable and undisputed stronghold.
The PDP will finds it difficult to secure the mandatory 25% in any of the States as the zone is expected to turn up for their home boy. Also the PDP internal crisis with the G5 will equally affect the party in securing the requirement.

The NNPP will be practically nonexistent in the zone

The LP is expected to win the five States in the zone due to the above stated underlying fact.

South South Zone:
Underlying fact: Notwithstanding that the zone almost vote along same political direction, it tends to be generous to any aspirant who can work hard enough to reap from it pluralism and diverse interest.
The effect of political structure and ethnic negotiations can not be overemphasize in the zone.
The zone remain the most unpredictable
Zone in the 2023 due to multiple interest and factors.

Voters Considerations: Party and Structural/Ethnic interest.

Observation:
The APC secured the electoral requirement of 25% in five States of the zone in 2019 and is bill to repeat such feat in 2023. However it is envisaged that the party will do better than 2019 in the zone and may likely swing Bayelsa state.

The PDP will have a mountain to climb in other to repeat it feat of 2019 in the zone.
The internal crisis with the G5, the crave for a president of southern extraction and Obi's candidacy are all factors that will affect the PDP in the zone.
However the PDP is expected to win at least two states in the zone and secure the mandatory 25% in at least four states of the zone.

The NNPP will be practically nonexistent in the zone

The LP will have a marginal outing in the zone by taking advantage of the factors militating against the PDP candidate.
The party will put up a good show in at least four states of the zone but it's unclear whether the LP can muster the number to win any of the States in the zone. It will however secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least four states of the zone.

Summarily:
The APC candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 31 States of the federation (NW=7) (NE=6) (NC=6) (SW=6) (SE=1) ((SS =5)

The PDP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 16 states of the federation. (NW=2) (NE=4) (NC=4) (SE=0) (SW=2) (SS=4)

The NNPP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 2 states of the federation.(NW=2) (NE=0) (NC=0) (SE=0) (SW=0) (SS=0)

The LP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 14 States of the federation. (NW=0) (NE=0) (NC=3) (SW=2) (SS=4) (SE=5)

Verdict:
From the voting patterns and trends it is obvious the the APC presidential candidate is the only candidate that has the spread and reach to win the election by simple majority and also satisfying the electoral requirement of 25% in the 24 states of the federation.

Conclusion: This phenomenon has shown that politics is a scientific process that requires critical observation, analysis and inference. Election itself is not a big bang product that create shockers outside it possibilities. This is why election is in numbers and not in spurious innuendos.

With the facts and figures available it is therefore obvious that the major advantage of the ruling party in the 2023 presidential election will stem from the vote splitting among the main opposition party.
Hence by summing up the voting percentage of the main opposition party(the PDP) that severed lately into LP, NNPP and G5 shows that the opposition party might have stand a better chance against the ruling party only if they were united in one frontier. Just imagine Atiku/Obi ticket with Kwankwaso still in the PDP and having the full backing of the G5 Governors.

There's no gainsaying therefore that a vote for Obi in the south and some part of NC is a vote for Tinubu. Also a vote for Kwankwaso in the north is a share vote with Atiku and an added advantage to Tinubu.

Election in naija no be by much cappings but in more vote counting
Seun
Mynd44
OAMJ4
nlfpmod
seunmsg
LeoDeKing
Moh247
Okoroawusa
plaindealear
Omenka
NgeneKwenu
Arrewa

You are correct

Labour party is going to win this election, that's the uncomfortable truth.


Atiku and kwankwaso will divide northern votes, so Tinubu won't get much votes from the North East and North West.

Obi will sweep through southeast, South south, North Central States.

some undisputed fact about the Northerners!

Atiku Abubakar and Kwankwaso influence in the North is overrated.

The North don't always vote their own.

The North is the most reliable and dependable ally anyone can have either in business or politics.

The Northerners are equally angling for equity and fairness by ensuring that the President comes from the South after Buhari 8 years but
definitely not from the SE

The core North always vote along party line and not individual.
Aside Buhari perception in the core north, he equally reaped from runinng in a party ANPP & CPC considered to be a Northen party.

The leaders in the North always has enormous influence on their electorate and hence decide their collective direction.

The respect for hierarchical order and their religious tenet makes it easy to reap from their collective resolve

The analysis sound. All these Obidients will just hand the presidency to Tinubu. Then everybody’s eye will clear.

I believe there shall be little change to the above analysis and PDP might win the election. However, LP will do well

Op. 2023 election will be far different from 2019 election.

A lot of changes has been made in our electoral system.

There will be less under age voting, less rigging and less vote buying compared to what was obtained during 2019 election.
Remember the election was only between APC and PDP in 2019.

2023 election have more strong opposition.

Your analysis was based on 2019 election.

The masses have the vote this time, unlike the previous election.

Let's watch and see what will happen come Feb 2023.

Na fear make u Dey do analysis!

Mumu.

APC hunger is across all zones in the country. That alone will make dem loose woefully

If the elections take place as anticipated, I mean when the people's votes truly count, some underdogs will surprise the mainstream political parties. And the system will change to the favour of the masses. When election rigging becomes impossible, the politicians will learn how to deliver the electoral promises. No more trust in propaganda. In a saner society, APC won't be campaigning but will be collecting stones and broken bottles being pelted at them for disappointing the people.

Aufbauh:
2023 Presidential Election Projection by Voting Patterns and Trends.

Although the 2023 Presidential election is expected to have more voters turnout due to reinvigorated electorate interest occasioned by improved electoral law and the competitiveness of the aspirants. Voting patterns and trends however will be an important clue on what is to come and shouldn't be undermine.

There's therefore no gainsaying that entrenched political interest and party structure as expected will play vital roles in this phenomenon. This is why political party and politicians alike speak to their strongholds, weak areas and swing locations.

Again every grassroot politician and political player understand this scientific process of politics through careful observation, analysis and inference.

So a careful study of this phenomenon can readily suggest which state(s) will be won and lose by a certain political party.

To predict the future we need a recourse to the event of the past.

It is noteworthy that the voting patterns and trends since 1999 hasn't change much hence could be an important guide in projecting the outcome of the 2023 presidential election. However the only notable alteration to this phenomenon in every election year is in the margin of votes.

My critical study of the Nigeria Presidential election result by states from 1993 through to 2019 has helped in arriving at this conclusion.

Suffice me to say that my projection was hinged primarily on 2019 presidential election result. The reason being that it is the most recent, most improved & credible since the 1993 election, and then the most practical or feasible as the case may be.

My projection shall be a breakdown analysis of the four front line political party by geopolitical zones.

North West Zone.
Underlying Fact:
The zone contribute more in vote to the electoral fortune of any aspirant, and it's also known to vote in one direction enbloc.
No wonder In 2019 presidential election the main opposition the PDP could only managed to secured the electoral requirement of 25% in just two states out of the seven states in the zone!
Sokoto (39%) and Jigawa (25%)

Voters Considerations: Religious and Party interest.

Observation:
The APC is expected to win at least 4 states from the zone and get the electoral requirement of 25% from all the states.

The PDP and NNPP is expected to win at least one state from the zone but will fail to secure the 25% in all the states in the zone.

The LP will perform woefully in this zone and will not be able to secure the 25% in any of the States.

North East Zone:
Underlying Fact: The predominantly Muslim states of Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, and Gombe always tends to vote along same political interest. The two others are considered to be swing states.
Did you know that the main opposition party the PDP whose candidate Atiku is from the same zone score the least vote percentage in the two states of Borno (7%) and Yobe(8%) across the country? Fact!

Voters Considerations: Religious and Party interest.

Observation:
The APC is expected to win at least 4 states from the zone and get the electoral requirement of 25% from all the states.

The PDP is expected to win at least two states from the zone but will fail to secured the 25% in at least two states in the zone.

The NNPP is expected to make an appreciable outing in Bauchi state but will not be able to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.

The LP will have a marginal performance in Taraba and Adamawa state, but will not be able to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.
The stronger Atiku wax in this zone, the weaker the performance of Mr Obi.

Summarily any state in the NW and NE that the PDP didn't get up to 50% in the 2019 presidential election, the LP won't secure the electoral requirement of 25% in such state. QED!

North Central zone:
Underlying fact:
Most of the states in the zone are swing state except Niger and Kwara! The implication of this fact is that any of the legacy party can swing either state to it side. Although the winning margin is always minimal.
The APC won 4 out of the 6 states in the zone in 2019 while the PDP won Plateau and Benue state.

Voters considerations: Partly Religious, Party interest and Structural influence.

Observation:
The APC is expected to sustain their 2019 feat by winning at least 4 states in the zone due to their entrenched political structure that will be coordinated by their sitting Governors. It will also secure the electoral requirement of 25% in all the states of the zone.

The PDP however will be affected by the Obi's influence in the Christian dominated States of Plateau and Benue. The PDP structure will however help the party to secure the mandatory 25% in at least 5 states.

The NNPP will have a marginal outing in at least two states of the zone but will fail to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.

The LP will make an appreciable outing in the zone by securing the mandatory 25% in at least two states.

South West Zone;
Underlying fact; Interestingly voting trends has shown that the SWern states can be swing.
However the marginal strong third force which is expected to split the opposition votes, and the entrenched political interest of the APC/ home boy effect in the zone will give the APC the clear lead.

Voters Considerations: Credibility and Party Interest.

Observation:
The APC won in four states of the zone in 2019, and it is expected to take a clear lead in all the states of the zone come 2023.

The PDP won in two states of the zone Oyo(41%) and Ondo(47%). However the party is expected to struggle in the zone come 2023 due to the underlying fact.
The party is expected to secure the mandatory 25% requirement in at least two states of the zone only if the sitting Governors in those States decide to work for the party.

The NNPP will have a poor outing in the entire south.

The LP will have a marginal performance in Lagos with the prospect of securing the 25% requirement. Being an offshoot of the PDP, it'll take some votes from the PDP stronghold in the zone thereby depleting the PDP votes and enhancing the winning margin of the APC.
If the LP can put in more work they can be fortunate to benefit from the PDP crisis and secure 25% in at least two states of the zone.

South East zone:
Underlying fact: The zone is the only zone in the South that vote along the same direction and equally give their preferred candidate bloc vote.
The zone equally has the lowest voters turnout among the six geopolitical zones since the advent of the use of the card reader machine in an election.

Voters considerations: Ethnic, Religious and regional interest.

Observation:
The APC will have their poorest outing in the zone as the party managed in 2019 to secured the 25% in only Imo state. It woeful performance across the country is in Anambra state with a mere 5%. Although it is expected to do better in 2023, however the LP candidate home boy effect will affect fortune of any other political party in the zone.
Notwithstanding, the party is expected to secure the electoral requirement in at least one state (Ebony most likely) from the zone.

The PDP will be the biggest loser in the zone as the zone was once it unnegotiable and undisputed stronghold.
The PDP will finds it difficult to secure the mandatory 25% in any of the States as the zone is expected to turn up for their home boy. Also the PDP internal crisis with the G5 will equally affect the party in securing the requirement.

The NNPP will be practically nonexistent in the zone

The LP is expected to win the five States in the zone due to the above stated underlying fact.

South South Zone:
Underlying fact: Notwithstanding that the zone almost vote along same political direction, it tends to be generous to any aspirant who can work hard enough to reap from it pluralism and diverse interest.
The effect of political structure and ethnic negotiations can not be overemphasize in the zone.
The zone remain the most unpredictable
Zone in the 2023 due to multiple interest and factors.

Voters Considerations: Party and Structural/Ethnic interest.

Observation:
The APC secured the electoral requirement of 25% in five States of the zone in 2019 and is bill to repeat such feat in 2023. However it is envisaged that the party will do better than 2019 in the zone and may likely swing Bayelsa state.

The PDP will have a mountain to climb in other to repeat it feat of 2019 in the zone.
The internal crisis with the G5, the crave for a president of southern extraction and Obi's candidacy are all factors that will affect the PDP in the zone.
However the PDP is expected to win at least two states in the zone and secure the mandatory 25% in at least four states of the zone.

The NNPP will be practically nonexistent in the zone

The LP will have a marginal outing in the zone by taking advantage of the factors militating against the PDP candidate.
The party will put up a good show in at least four states of the zone but it's unclear whether the LP can muster the number to win any of the States in the zone. It will however secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least four states of the zone.

Summarily:
The APC candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 31 States of the federation (NW=7) (NE=6) (NC=6) (SW=6) (SE=1) ((SS =5)

The PDP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 16 states of the federation. (NW=2) (NE=4) (NC=4) (SE=0) (SW=2) (SS=4)

The NNPP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 2 states of the federation.(NW=2) (NE=0) (NC=0) (SE=0) (SW=0) (SS=0)

The LP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 14 States of the federation. (NW=0) (NE=0) (NC=3) (SW=2) (SS=4) (SE=5)

Verdict:
From the voting patterns and trends it is obvious the the APC presidential candidate is the only candidate that has the spread and reach to win the election by simple majority and also satisfying the electoral requirement of 25% in the 24 states of the federation.

Conclusion: This phenomenon has shown that politics is a scientific process that requires critical observation, analysis and inference. Election itself is not a big bang product that create shockers outside it possibilities. This is why election is in numbers and not in spurious innuendos.

With the facts and figures available it is therefore obvious that the major advantage of the ruling party in the 2023 presidential election will stem from the vote splitting among the main opposition party.
Hence by summing up the voting percentage of the main opposition party(the PDP) that severed lately into LP, NNPP and G5 shows that the opposition party might have stand a better chance against the ruling party only if they were united in one frontier. Just imagine Atiku/Obi ticket with Kwankwaso still in the PDP and having the full backing of the G5 Governors.

There's no gainsaying therefore that a vote for Obi in the south and some part of NC is a vote for Tinubu. Also a vote for Kwankwaso in the north is a share vote with Atiku and an added advantage to Tinubu.

Election in naija no be by much cappings but in more vote counting
Seun
Mynd44
OAMJ4
nlfpmod
seunmsg
LeoDeKing
Moh247
Okoroawusa
plaindealear
Omenka
NgeneKwenu
Arrewa

Agbado, eko ati ewa egoyin analysis

Very balanced and realistic projections.

God1000:
Labour party is going to win this election, that's the uncomfortable truth.


Atiku and kwankwaso will divide northern votes, so Tinubu won't get much votes from the North East and North West.

Obi will sweep through southeast, South south, North Central.

Where is Obi going to get 25% in 24 states? Elections is not emotions.

We can mock Tinubu all day long, but the people who are working day and night to ensure he wins don’t care if he is a walking dead. He will win. Answer the name president. And the political jobbers will have a field day.

We

HitRun:
Where is Obi going to get 25% in 24 states? Elections is not emotions.

We can mock Tinubu all day long, but the people who are working day and night to ensure he wins don’t care if he is a walking dead. He will win. Answer the name president. And the political jobbers will have a field day.

Did you learn anything from the recent election in Kenya?

Aufbauh:
2023 Presidential Election Projection by Voting Patterns and Trends.

Although the 2023 Presidential election is expected to have more voters turnout due to reinvigorated electorate interest occasioned by improved electoral law and the competitiveness of the aspirants. Voting patterns and trends however will be an important clue on what is to come and shouldn't be undermine.

There's therefore no gainsaying that entrenched political interest and party structure as expected will play vital roles in this phenomenon. This is why political party and politicians alike speak to their strongholds, weak areas and swing locations.

Again every grassroot politician and political player understand this scientific process of politics through careful observation, analysis and inference.

So a careful study of this phenomenon can readily suggest which state(s) will be won and lose by a certain political party.

To predict the future we need a recourse to the event of the past.

It is noteworthy that the voting patterns and trends since 1999 hasn't change much hence could be an important guide in projecting the outcome of the 2023 presidential election. However the only notable alteration to this phenomenon in every election year is in the margin of votes.

My critical study of the Nigeria Presidential election result by states from 1993 through to 2019 has helped in arriving at this conclusion.

Suffice me to say that my projection was hinged primarily on 2019 presidential election result. The reason being that it is the most recent, most improved & credible since the 1993 election, and then the most practical or feasible as the case may be.

My projection shall be a breakdown analysis of the four front line political party by geopolitical zones.

North West Zone.
Underlying Fact:
The zone contribute more in vote to the electoral fortune of any aspirant, and it's also known to vote in one direction enbloc.
No wonder In 2019 presidential election the main opposition the PDP could only managed to secured the electoral requirement of 25% in just two states out of the seven states in the zone!
Sokoto (39%) and Jigawa (25%)

Voters Considerations: Religious and Party interest.

Observation:
The APC is expected to win at least 4 states from the zone and get the electoral requirement of 25% from all the states.

The PDP and NNPP is expected to win at least one state from the zone but will fail to secure the 25% in all the states in the zone.

The LP will perform woefully in this zone and will not be able to secure the 25% in any of the States.

North East Zone:
Underlying Fact: The predominantly Muslim states of Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, and Gombe always tends to vote along same political interest. The two others are considered to be swing states.
Did you know that the main opposition party the PDP whose candidate Atiku is from the same zone score the least vote percentage in the two states of Borno (7%) and Yobe(8%) across the country? Fact!

Voters Considerations: Religious and Party interest.

Observation:
The APC is expected to win at least 4 states from the zone and get the electoral requirement of 25% from all the states.

The PDP is expected to win at least two states from the zone but will fail to secured the 25% in at least two states in the zone.

The NNPP is expected to make an appreciable outing in Bauchi state but will not be able to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.

The LP will have a marginal performance in Taraba and Adamawa state, but will not be able to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.
The stronger Atiku wax in this zone, the weaker the performance of Mr Obi.

Summarily any state in the NW and NE that the PDP didn't get up to 50% in the 2019 presidential election, the LP won't secure the electoral requirement of 25% in such state. QED!

North Central zone:
Underlying fact:
Most of the states in the zone are swing state except Niger and Kwara! The implication of this fact is that any of the legacy party can swing either state to it side. Although the winning margin is always minimal.
The APC won 4 out of the 6 states in the zone in 2019 while the PDP won Plateau and Benue state.

Voters considerations: Partly Religious, Party interest and Structural influence.

Observation:
The APC is expected to sustain their 2019 feat by winning at least 4 states in the zone due to their entrenched political structure that will be coordinated by their sitting Governors. It will also secure the electoral requirement of 25% in all the states of the zone.

The PDP however will be affected by the Obi's influence in the Christian dominated States of Plateau and Benue. The PDP structure will however help the party to secure the mandatory 25% in at least 5 states.

The NNPP will have a marginal outing in at least two states of the zone but will fail to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in any of the States.

The LP will make an appreciable outing in the zone by securing the mandatory 25% in at least two states.

South West Zone;
Underlying fact; Interestingly voting trends has shown that the SWern states can be swing.
However the marginal strong third force which is expected to split the opposition votes, and the entrenched political interest of the APC/ home boy effect in the zone will give the APC the clear lead.

Voters Considerations: Credibility and Party Interest.

Observation:
The APC won in four states of the zone in 2019, and it is expected to take a clear lead in all the states of the zone come 2023.

The PDP won in two states of the zone Oyo(41%) and Ondo(47%). However the party is expected to struggle in the zone come 2023 due to the underlying fact.
The party is expected to secure the mandatory 25% requirement in at least two states of the zone only if the sitting Governors in those States decide to work for the party.

The NNPP will have a poor outing in the entire south.

The LP will have a marginal performance in Lagos with the prospect of securing the 25% requirement. Being an offshoot of the PDP, it'll take some votes from the PDP stronghold in the zone thereby depleting the PDP votes and enhancing the winning margin of the APC.
If the LP can put in more work they can be fortunate to benefit from the PDP crisis and secure 25% in at least two states of the zone.

South East zone:
Underlying fact: The zone is the only zone in the South that vote along the same direction and equally give their preferred candidate bloc vote.
The zone equally has the lowest voters turnout among the six geopolitical zones since the advent of the use of the card reader machine in an election.

Voters considerations: Ethnic, Religious and regional interest.

Observation:
The APC will have their poorest outing in the zone as the party managed in 2019 to secured the 25% in only Imo state. It woeful performance across the country is in Anambra state with a mere 5%. Although it is expected to do better in 2023, however the LP candidate home boy effect will affect fortune of any other political party in the zone.
Notwithstanding, the party is expected to secure the electoral requirement in at least one state (Ebony most likely) from the zone.

The PDP will be the biggest loser in the zone as the zone was once it unnegotiable and undisputed stronghold.
The PDP will finds it difficult to secure the mandatory 25% in any of the States as the zone is expected to turn up for their home boy. Also the PDP internal crisis with the G5 will equally affect the party in securing the requirement.

The NNPP will be practically nonexistent in the zone

The LP is expected to win the five States in the zone due to the above stated underlying fact.

South South Zone:
Underlying fact: Notwithstanding that the zone almost vote along same political direction, it tends to be generous to any aspirant who can work hard enough to reap from it pluralism and diverse interest.
The effect of political structure and ethnic negotiations can not be overemphasize in the zone.
The zone remain the most unpredictable
Zone in the 2023 due to multiple interest and factors.

Voters Considerations: Party and Structural/Ethnic interest.

Observation:
The APC secured the electoral requirement of 25% in five States of the zone in 2019 and is bill to repeat such feat in 2023. However it is envisaged that the party will do better than 2019 in the zone and may likely swing Bayelsa state.

The PDP will have a mountain to climb in other to repeat it feat of 2019 in the zone.
The internal crisis with the G5, the crave for a president of southern extraction and Obi's candidacy are all factors that will affect the PDP in the zone.
However the PDP is expected to win at least two states in the zone and secure the mandatory 25% in at least four states of the zone.

The NNPP will be practically nonexistent in the zone

The LP will have a marginal outing in the zone by taking advantage of the factors militating against the PDP candidate.
The party will put up a good show in at least four states of the zone but it's unclear whether the LP can muster the number to win any of the States in the zone. It will however secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least four states of the zone.

Summarily:
The APC candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 31 States of the federation (NW=7) (NE=6) (NC=6) (SW=6) (SE=1) ((SS =5)

The PDP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 16 states of the federation. (NW=2) (NE=4) (NC=4) (SE=0) (SW=2) (SS=4)

The NNPP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 2 states of the federation.(NW=2) (NE=0) (NC=0) (SE=0) (SW=0) (SS=0)

The LP candidate is expected to secure the electoral requirement of 25% in at least 14 States of the federation. (NW=0) (NE=0) (NC=3) (SW=2) (SS=4) (SE=5)

Verdict:
From the voting patterns and trends it is obvious the the APC presidential candidate is the only candidate that has the spread and reach to win the election by simple majority and also satisfying the electoral requirement of 25% in the 24 states of the federation.

Conclusion: This phenomenon has shown that politics is a scientific process that requires critical observation, analysis and inference. Election itself is not a big bang product that create shockers outside it possibilities. This is why election is in numbers and not in spurious innuendos.

With the facts and figures available it is therefore obvious that the major advantage of the ruling party in the 2023 presidential election will stem from the vote splitting among the main opposition party.
Hence by summing up the voting percentage of the main opposition party(the PDP) that severed lately into LP, NNPP and G5 shows that the opposition party might have stand a better chance against the ruling party only if they were united in one frontier. Just imagine Atiku/Obi ticket with Kwankwaso still in the PDP and having the full backing of the G5 Governors.

There's no gainsaying therefore that a vote for Obi in the south and some part of NC is a vote for Tinubu. Also a vote for Kwankwaso in the north is a share vote with Atiku and an added advantage to Tinubu.

Election in naija no be by much cappings but in more vote counting
Seun
Mynd44
OAMJ4
nlfpmod
seunmsg
LeoDeKing
Moh247
Okoroawusa
plaindealear
Omenka
NgeneKwenu
Arrewa

So u don't understand that politics is dynamic.
U want to use 2015 and 2019 results to rig 2023 election?
Lies .

Apc can not win any state in north west aside maybe just one state.

U fail to realize that LP will win Lagos Ondo,Oyo,
While PDP will win Osun,
Even Ogun is not sure for Apc.
Ekiti is the only state Apc can have 60%

God1000:
Labour party is going to win this election, that's the uncomfortable truth.


Atiku and kwankwaso will divide northern votes, so Tinubu won't get much votes from the North East and North West.

Obi will sweep through southeast, South south, North Central.

Obi can't get 25% in the 24 states of the federation. I'm even magnanimous in my projection.

Let's even assume he'll get the 25% in all the 17 southern states, 3 from NC of Plateau, Benue, Kogi or Nasarrawa or 4. Then 2 from NE of Adamawa and Taraba. Do your mathematics, it's just 22 or 23 at most.


Election is not it'll shock una bla bla bla....

God1000:
Did you learn anything from the recent election in Kenya?

What is the population of Kenya? What is the literacy level and how does it affect their elections? What is the poverty level and how does it affect elections?

Religion? Ethnicity?

My friend, Kenya and Nigeria are two different ball games.

2023 election would be more of a 2011 election than 2019...

Obi would be the GEJ of the election with very minor changes swinging to his oppositions whom this time fourtunately are three strong contenders..

Fair Analysis. However, Tinubu will win Imo and Ebonyi States. He will also secure the required 25% in Abia State.

Peter will not get 25% in more than 7 states across the country.

God1000:
Did you learn anything from the recent election in Kenya?

What happened in Kenya? The vice President became president. The new messiah and noisemaker like Obi whose supporters were abusing Kenyans online had 4%. The equivalent of Atiku who has contested since time immemorial came second again......

Miracles hardly happen with election results.....when the opposition is split the ruling class will always win.

Nice analysis

The only little change in the analysis is that I the SE. OP predicted Labour party will do beta than PDP in the East but I beg to differ they either be neck to neck or PDP come out on top.

PDP as a standing structure n 3 trillion Peter Obi can not defeat in the East. PDP loss to Labour in SS will be marginal if not insignificant Labour will not win a single state outside the SE. I can bet this with my life n willing to bet any amount with anyone or any Igbo who think it butterfly can fly like bird.

OP other prediction are pretty fair n square with my projections. One more thing, that Labour will get any significant votes in the middle belt is a huge facade Labour party will not secure 25% in any of the NC n by extension Northern states.

leesworld:
I believe there shall be little change to the above analysis and PDP might win the election. However, LP will do well

let me tell you edo politics.
Esan are very unpredictable, those people always tend to against majority wish and public opinion. they are most likely going to vote pdp more than ever. Benin youths are for Obi but the elders are most likely voting asiwaju. Auchi would vote APC no doubt. there a chance for APC to win edo state but I doubt . cos if you factor obi chances,
he's going to get a good percent in the Auchi part of edo, but won't win and also a good percent in the Esan part of edo while also winning benin city..

You are wailing this cos you know it more of a reality than your Igbo delusion of obi winning the election

Dreal1247:
If the elections take place as anticipated, I mean when the people's votes truly count, some underdogs will surprise the mainstream political parties. And the system will change to the favour of the masses. When election rigging becomes impossible, the politicians will learn how to deliver the electoral promises. No more trust in propaganda. In a saner society, APC won't be campaigning but will be collecting stones and broken bottles being pelted at them for disappointing the people.

Were so Kenya is now same with Nigeria, many of you Igbo are simply mad without knowing it.

God1000:
Did you learn anything from the recent election in Kenya?

EngrKemp:

So u don't understand that politics is dynamic.
U want to use 2015 and 2019 results to rig 2023 election?
Lies .

Apc can not win any state in north west aside maybe just one state.

U fail to realize that LP will win Lagos Ondo,Oyo,
While PDP will win Osun,
Even Ogun is not sure for Apc.
Ekiti is the only state Apc can have 60%

oga shut up, LP can't even av 10% in my state ondo, TINUBU will av at least 80% votes here

Aufbauh:
some undisputed fact about the Northerners!

Atiku Abubakar and Kwankwaso influence in the North is overrated.

The North don't always vote their own.

The North is the most reliable and dependable ally anyone can have either in business or politics.

The Northerners are equally angling for equity and fairness by ensuring that the President comes from the South after Buhari 8 years but
definitely not from the SE

The core North always vote along party line and not individual.
Aside Buhari perception in the core north, he equally reaped from runinng in a party ANPP & CPC considered to be a Northen party.

The leaders in the North always has enormous influence on their electorate and hence decide their collective direction.

The respect for hierarchical order and their religious tenet makes it easy to reap from their collective resolve

Keep deceiving yourself. So northerners will vote tinubu over atiku? The joke is on you sir.

Very good analysis but you giving the whole SE to LP is not right. APC and PDP might share the SE with LP. PDP is very strong in Enugu and the Obi effect is not that strong in Ebonyi.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu is Nigeria's next president

HitRun:
Where is Obi going to get 25% in 24 states? Elections is not emotions.

We can mock Tinubu all day long, but the people who are working day and night to ensure he wins don’t care if he is a walking dead. He will win. Answer the name president. And the political jobbers will have a field day.

Did you carry out an opinion sampling abi you are making your analysis from a partisan angle?

Labour party is a big threat to both APC and PDP that's the truth

This is the truth that they don't wanna admit

NgeneUkwenu:
Fair Analysis. However, Tinubu will win Imo and Ebonyi States. He will also secure the required 25% in Abia State.

Peter will not get 25% in more than 7 states across the country.

Beer parlour analysis?

LP will win Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo.

Clown

BlazinGlory40:


Keep deceiving yourself. So northerners will vote tinubu over atiku? The joke is on you sir.

You dey mind these Urchins.

Tinubu will win in South West, but Atiku won't win the North.

Their eyes go clear from their delusion