Jarus:

More anti-PDP primary results protests in teh north: http://dailytrust.dailytrust.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10173:pdp-convention-more-protests-in-kaduna-bauchi&catid=2:lead-stories&Itemid=8

these governors riks losing re-election

PDP Convention - More protests in Kaduna, Bauchi .

Monday, 17 January 2011 00:13 Ismail Mudashir & Christiana T. Alabi, Kaduna, Ahmed Mohammed, Bauchi .




protesters burning umbrellas and PDP flag

Protests began by youths in some Northern cities to protest the outcome of the Peoples Democratic Party’s [PDP] presidential primaries of last week spread yesterday to Kaduna and Bauchi states, with protesters burning the party flag and causing commotion in the streets. Vice President Mohamed Namadi Sambo also had to cancel his planned visit to Kaduna yesterday to participate in the voter registration exercise.


Pandemonium had broken out along the busy Muhammadu Buhari/ Waff Road in Kaduna metropolis yesterday when youths numbering about a hundred set ablaze the flag of the ruling PDP. They said they were protesting the outcome of the party’s presidential primaries held in Abuja last Thursday.


The youths, who barricaded the road for some time, created tension in the area as passersby scampered away for safety. The youths who came on motorcycles were chanting “Ba muson PDP,” meaning they don’t want PDP.

They destroyed several umbrellas [the PDP symbol] as well as the party’s flags and banners. They also attempted to enter the Kaduna secretariat of the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) but the chairman of the state council, Alhaji Yusuf Idris quickly ordered for the closure of the secretariat.

Speaking to our correspondent, one of the protesting youths, Adamu Mohammed, said they decided to denounce the PDP following the way that last Thursday’s primaries was conducted.

He said, “We are doing this to show our displeasure in the sham primaries they conducted. There is no internal democracy in the party at all. For them to dump zoning, we are also dumping the party and we are going to work against them.’’

Chairman of the Kaduna council of NUJ Alhaji Yusuf Idris said they decided to lock the secretariat because the press centre was not meant for protest. He also said the protesters did not tell the NUJ leaders that they were coming.

Meanwhile, Daily Trust gathered that Vice President Sambo decided to postpone his voters’ registration in Kaduna because of “unfavourable security reports.” The Vice President had been expected to perform the civic responsibility at a special polling unit at Shooting Range, near the Almanar Juma’at Mosque Close, a stone’s throw from his Kaduna residence.

Dozens of security men were drafted to the area. All roads leading to the shooting range polling unit were fortified by security men. The VP’s advanced team had arrived the Shooting Range polling unit around 2.pm.

Special Assistant to the Vice President on Media, Alhaji Sani Umar had told our correspondent that the VP would be coming to the state for the voter registration. Newsmen from both electronic and print media houses waited for hours at the Shooting Range. The news of the cancellation of the VP’s trip was broken to the newsmen at 4.10 pm.

Meanwhile, in Bauchi state, the police had to disperse a group of youths who were protesting over the emergence of President Goodluck Jonathan as the flag bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the 2011 presidential election.

Our correspondent who monitored the protest reported that the youths took over Nasarawa and Ran roads chanting bamuso, Bamuyin Jonathan, meaning “we don’t want”, “we are not doing [i.e. supporting] Jonathan.” They burnt several PDP flags and an umbrella. Men of the Special Anti robbery Squad as well as soldiers in an Army Hilux truck followed the protesting youths along the streets and dispersed them before they could hold a rally.

Leader of the protesters, Comrade Aliyu Ladan, said they were disappointed with the northern governors who they said compelled their delegates to vote for Jonathan. Ladan threatened that they will decamp from PDP and would do everything to frustrate Jonathan’s election in the North.

He said the PDP national leadership did not follow the zoning formula of allowing the north to produce the party’s next presidential candidate. He said, “They should have allowed the northern part of the country to complete its four years before going for any negations. Already, the south have finished their tenure through Obasanjo, so therefore it is now is the turn of north to rule for eight years. All our elders, women, and youth in the state are going out of the party (PDP), because the youth are the majority of Nigerian voters.”

Bauchi State Publicity Secretary of PDP Sani Al’amin Mohammed however said PDP youths don’t take laws in their hands and advised the protesting youth, “if they are genuine PDP members,” to come forward and express their grievances peacefully.

He said the PDP national leadership did not follow the zoning formula of allowing the north to produce the party’s next presidential candidate. He said, “They should have allowed the northern part of the country to complete its four years before going for any negations. Already, the south have finished their tenure through Obasanjo, so therefore it is now is the turn of north to rule for eight years. All our elders, women, and youth in the state are going out of the party (PDP), because the youth are the majority of Nigerian voters.”

Gbawe:

@Eku Bear.

Below , culled from the link Jarus provides, is exactly what I have been saying about zoning and the ambition of Jonathan i.e it will be difficult to truncate zoning , without serious reppercussion, when it is the most clannish region in Nigeria that is being "cheated" . Of course OBJ and co know this but they don't care . They are used to daming the consequences and attempting to get their way in a "do or die" fashion. If thousands of Nigerians die in the process that is par for the course in the quest for some people (OBJ, Anenih et al) to remain rich and politically relevant.

Naturally young, educated folks like us would want the end of zoning . Nothing seems more odious to us since most of us embrace merit fervently above other considerations . Some of us can also argue it is a PDP affair but most Parties show they are also tacitly following the zoning Principle. What that tells me is that other Parties are also concerned about keeping an agreement that brings peace . We are all learning everyday . Naturally , as defined by history, we will move on from zoning but it would be better everyone is[b] ready and willing [/b] to move on. This is no call to pacify anyone . We should all know and understand the reality of what may happen when insincere politicians play their selfish games and heat up the polity deliberately.

   

johndoe200:


As usual with you and your vacuous arguments, you depend on people being silly for them to accept your irrational arguments.

Thousands of people will be killed by northerners - so let's give them what they want. this is the crux of your argument. What if I say that the same thing will happen if GEJ is not allowed to be president?

Please spare us the "we are too weak and scared of northerners argument", really it makes you sound silly.

johndoe200:


As usual with you and your vacuous arguments, you depend on people being silly for them to accept your irrational arguments.[b][/b]
Thousands of people will be killed by northerners - so let's give them what they want. this is the crux of your argument. What if I say that the same thing will happen if GEJ is not allowed to be president?

Please spare us the "we are too weak and scared of northerners argument", really it makes you sound silly.

oyb:

have you lot not been doing just that?

threatening to make nigeria ungovernable?

Gbawe:

Eku is far more intelligent than you IMO. Impossible to patronise folks who have their own minds and can use it intelligently.

johndoe200:

Truth be told, Eku probably takes you and NL seriously. I on the other hand KNOW that most of you guys here are just mild entertainment at best.

We are on the ground, and just post to help those who may seek additional info on the internet. Other than that, do you really think that anything you do here will actually affect events on the ground? If you do then you are either very young or a fool.

johndoe200:

Truth be told, Eku probably takes you and NL seriously. I on the other hand KNOW that most of you guys here are just mild entertainment at best.

We are on the ground, and just post to help those who may seek additional info on the internet. Other than that, do you really think that anything you do here will actually affect events on the ground? If you do then you are either very young or a fool.

Nigeria on the Brink
What Happens If the 2011 Elections Fail?

John Campbell
September 9, 2010

The January 2011 elections could tear Nigeria apart. Is there anything the Obama administration can do to help the country avoid North-South conflict or a military coup?
JOHN CAMPBELL, the former U.S. Ambassador to Nigeria from 2004 to 2007, is the Ralph Bunche Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is also the author of the Center for Preventive Action’s "Electoral Violence in Nigeria" contingency planning memorandum. His book, Nigeria: Dancing on the Brink, will be published by Rowman & Littlefield in November.


The 2011 elections in Nigeria, scheduled for January 22, pose a threat to the stability of the United States’ most important partner in West Africa. The end of a power-sharing arrangement between the Muslim North and the Christian South, as now seems likely, could lead to postelection sectarian violence, paralysis of the executive branch, and even a coup. The Obama administration has little leverage over the conduct and outcome of the elections -- and if the vote does lead to chaos, Washington may no longer be able to count on Nigerian partnership in addressing African regional and security issues such as the conflicts in Darfur, Southern Sudan, and Somalia.

Nigeria’s current political drama dates to November 2009, when its president, Umaru Yar’Adua, was hospitalized for a kidney condition in Saudi Arabia. Yar’Adua refused to comply with the Nigerian constitution and hand over executive authority to Vice President Goodluck Jonathan. The result was a power vacuum until February 2010, when the National Assembly extralegally designated Jonathan the “acting president” by resolution, even though there is no constitutional provision for doing so. In April, Acting President Jonathan attended the nuclear safety summit in Washington, where U.S. President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden warmly embraced him, not least because his designation forestalled a possible military coup. In May 2010, the first act of Nigeria’s political tragedy ended when Yar’Adua died and Jonathan became the constitutional president. Now, Washington may be tempted to move its attention away from Nigeria -- but that would be a mistake.

Nigeria has held three national elections since the end of military dictatorship in 1998. In 1999, active and retired military officers, along with a few civilian allies, oversaw the transition from military to civilian rule. They established the nonideological People’s Democratic Party (PDP); selected Olusegun Obasanjo, a Christian from the South, as the presidential candidate; and placed him in office with a northern Muslim vice president. An elite consensus formed around an unwritten power-sharing agreement, which dictated that presidential candidates would henceforth alternate between the Christian South and the Muslim North -- a system designed to avoid presidential contests that could exacerbate hostility between the regions and religions.

With the advantages of presidential incumbency, and access to unlimited oil money, Obasanjo secured elite support for a second presidential term in 2003. Northerners reluctantly acquiesced to a rotation cycle of two terms rather than the one they had foreseen in 1999. Once re-elected, however, Obasanjo reneged on his two-term promise by attempting to run again in 2007. This bid was defeated due to public anger and northern leaders’ insistence on power sharing. Nevertheless, Obasanjo remained powerful enough to impose his handpicked candidates on the ruling party in 2007: Yar’Adua, a northern Muslim, for president and Jonathan, a Christian southerner, for vice president. Obasanjo’s chosen candidates fit the terms of the power-sharing convention, and accordingly, they took office after the 2007 election, which was marred by fraud and irregularities. However, Yar’Adua’s subsequent death and Jonathan’s presidency upended the power-sharing arrangement.

In the event of postelection sectarian violence and a political breakdown, the army could intervene if the civilian government loses control. Unlike in every previous election since 1999, no elite consensus exists for the 2011 poll, nor is there an Obasanjo-like figure strong enough to impose one. Although it is still dominated by elites and their patronage networks, the Nigerian political sphere is wide open.
Many in the North believe it is still their turn for the presidency, but the northern power brokers do not agree on who should be their presidential candidate. Several northern politicians, including Ibrahim Babangida and Muhammadu Buhari, both former military dictators, are running for the presidency. Other potential candidates are Aliyu Mohammed Gusau, the national security adviser under Obasanjo and Jonathan, and several northern governors. Nigerian democrats are advocating the candidacies of Nasir El-Rufai, the former minister of the Federal Capital Territory, and Nuhu Ribadu, formerly the head of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, the anticorruption agency. Both are seen as having the potential to restore public faith in the political system. But so long as the current elites remain the country’s political power brokers, candidates operating outside the PDP will be long shots at best.

Jonathan, with the advantages of presidential incumbency, has also announced that he will run. This could mean the presidential contest will feature one or more northern Muslim candidates opposing Jonathan against the backdrop of ethnic and religious violence in the Middle Belt, Muslim extremism in the North, and an ongoing insurrection in the oil-rich Niger Delta. In such a fraught environment, supporters of candidates might exploit religious and ethnic identities, a dangerous and potentially explosive dynamic that until now has largely been avoided.

Logistical preparations for the 2011 elections have not started. There is no voters roll, and despite the president’s signing of an electoral reform bill, some of these reforms remain unimplemented four months before the election. The election therefore will almost certainly lack legitimacy, especially in the eyes of the losers. This will further drive the country to the brink, especially if winners and losers are defined by their religious and ethnic backgrounds. There is at the moment no standoff between northern and southern leaders, at least nothing comparable to that between Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe or between Kenya’s Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga in the aftermath of the 2007 elections. Nevertheless, the danger of Nigeria plunging into postelection violence is a real possibility.

The Nigerian military still regards itself as the ultimate guarantor of the state’s security, and most political elites agree. In the event of postelection sectarian violence and a political breakdown, it could intervene if the civilian government loses control. The army, given its history, could move quickly, and unlike in Kenya following the 2007 postelection crisis, there would probably be little time for the international community to try to facilitate a political settlement. Only if the military itself fragments would there be space for the international organizations such as the African Union to intervene in search of a political solution. Yet the return to power of the so-called men on horseback in Nigeria would pose special challenges for Washington, considering congressional requirements that Washington scale back contact with military governments that overthrow civilian governments. It would also be anathema to the African Union’s principled stand against military coups.

Some Nigerians are privately urging the Obama administration to intervene behind the scenes to forestall a postelection crisis. Yet intervention on behalf of one candidate could do more harm than good. If Delta militants sense that Washington is opposed to a Jonathan candidacy, and should he withdraw or lose, they might escalate their attacks on U.S.-owned oil facilities, thereby cutting off production. If, on the other hand, northern leaders see the United States as supporting Jonathan, they are likely to become even more estranged from the federal government. The North would likely see support of Jonathan as part of the perceived U.S. war on Islam.

Given these realities, what can the Obama administration do? At present, the United States enjoys significant support among Nigerians, even though it lacks the capacity to have much impact on the 2011 elections. It cannot reform the electoral commission, nor can it change Nigeria’s corrupt political economy, which is fundamental to vote-rigging efforts. It could, however, establish and publicize the benchmarks it would use to measure improvement in the electoral process. It could also focus election-related assistance on select states where polling in recent elections has been better than elsewhere; Lagos and Cross Rivers State are two such possible venues. As the elections approach, the United States must be scrupulously neutral on the presidential candidates while reiterating its call for free, fair, and credible elections.

The Obama administration should also look for ways to support such civil-society organizations as the Nigeria Bar Association, which actively works to strengthen the rule of law. The United States already provides assistance for civic groups involved in voter education and the strengthening of political parties as open institutions. That support should continue. In the event of a confrontation between the North and South over failed elections in 2011, these organizations could play a role in mitigating the worst excesses of a crisis.

Such steps by the Obama administration are worthwhile to promote the long-term development of democratic institutions. However, in the event of a bloody crisis that splits the country along regional and religious lines, neither the Obama administration nor any other foreign government or international organization will have much leverage. Faced with such a cataclysm, Nigeria’s friends should seek to mitigate the humanitarian consequences and prevent the resulting instability from spreading to other parts of the continent.

Nigerians have long danced on the edge of the cliff without falling off. Yet at this juncture, the odds are not good for a positive outcome, and it is difficult to see how Nigeria can move back from the brink.

Gbawe:

If I had a kobo for everytime you have said this I would probably be rich right now. Get it into your head that very intelligent and , to an extent , neutral analysts have said what I am saying now i.e there is a possibilty of post-election chaos ensuing . The debate will then be about who should have acted selflessly to prevent it. We all know GEJ's Party zones the Presidential slot . We know GEJ's backers who continue to goad him forward , like OBJ , are "do or die" desperados notorious for their treachery and inability to honour agreements . Please put two and two together if that is possible for you.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66746/john-campbell/nigeria-on-the-brink?page=show

Gbawe:

If I had a kobo for everytime you have said this I would probably be rich right now. Get it into your head that very intelligent and , to an extent , neutral analysts have said what I am saying now i.e there is a possibilty of post-election chaos ensuing . The debate will then be about who should have acted selflessly to prevent it. We all know GEJ's Party zones the Presidential slot . We know GEJ's backers who continue to goad him forward , like OBJ , are "do or die" desperados notorious for their treachery and inability to honour agreements . Please put two and two together if that is possible for you.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66746/john-campbell/nigeria-on-the-brink?page=show

johndoe200:

Are you delusional or just brain damaged? I have said this on numerous occasions and we have won ALL the contests so far.  Could it be that you don't know the meaning of the words?

We are on the ground and we will continue to win. All you do is show the world that you are clueless, when we win the 2011 elections you will still be here spouting the nonsense you usually do. It may be satisfying to you to espouse a position that bears no relationship to the reality on the ground, but at a point even the readers who do not post will have to acknowledge that you are delusional.


I forgot, when we win, the northerners will start to kill indiscriminately and we all will be helpless, right? Wrong, we will protect the lives of the citizens.

X-factoria:

Gbawe: I have read all your arguments in support of zoning and you know what? It lacks logic!

That is my worry too. I don't think Nigeria is ready for another 2007-style electoral theft. Whatever the outcome of the election our political leaders must eschew selfish interest and tread with caution so as to not heat up the polity. The Militants may forment trouble if Jonathan does not win and  the North, unless they win , will pretty much feel cheated with how bile will rise up from the realisation that this should be their "undisputed" slot. It is worrying seeing all the careless and egotistical political pontifications that seems not to consider the volatility of the current situation on the ground.

There is just no way to predict what will happen unless the various actors start behaving responsibly in viewing their various ambitions as secondary to the peace of the nation. The unchecked gangsterism going on in Ogun State right  is acting as a sure hint of how brazen "do or die" and "operation totality" adherrents are willing to test the patience and docility of Nigerians to achieve their despised political ambitions/goals  . This report , even if pessimistic,  is thought provoking . We should not be entirely dismissive of it.

My opinion too. In international relations , beyond the rhetoric , representatives of Nations are , first and foremost , obliged to view issues from an angle of what is most favourable for their nation. I think we have to learn to play the game too in Nigeria with a homogeneous policy of pragmatically placing the interest of our nation above everything else in our dealing with others .


The article itself , even if it appears written by arrogant 'chess' strategist discussing dispensible pawns , should still be viewed with objectivity by those whose interest are most at risk  - Nigerians .

okada_man:

Very interesting thread in retrospect.

@Eku Bear.

Below , culled from the link Jarus provides, is exactly what I have been saying about zoning and the ambition of Jonathan i.e it will be difficult to truncate zoning , without serious reppercussion, when it is the most clannish region in Nigeria that is being "cheated" . Of course OBJ and co know this but they don't care . They are used to daming the consequences and attempting to get their way in a "do or die" fashion. If thousands of Nigerians die in the process that is par for the course in the quest for some people (OBJ, Anenih et al) to remain rich and politically relevant.

Gbawe:

Indeed. Note the usual fools throwing insults around. How are they looking now with GEJ overwhelmed? A lot of bad things happen because our politicians are very selfish. They will never put Nigeria or Nigerians first.

okada_man:

It's interesting really because I had this same discussion with friends before the election and it's funny that many of my GEJ supporter friends actually gave the flip side of your argument as one of their major reasons for supporting him.

They simply argued that a loss for Jonathan will lead to renewed and unprecedent violent Niger Delta actions that will cripple our Oil Economy, Essentially arguing for a Jonathan presidency to calm things and "smartly manage the politics" Very interesting how the argument can go both ways. Hmm

You know Nigeria is a pretty complex country politically. I must confess I often feel sorry for president Jonathan, I quickly snap out of it when I remember the resources at his disposal, the great opportunity to make changes and the fact that he was not forced to rule, he asked for it and fought other better qualified candidates to get to the seat.

Fixing Nigeria is Jonathan's headache. He asked for it so he has to do it. I'm willing to give him a bit more time though. Just a little bit more.

Zoning: Don’t push us to the wall, Violence may be inevitable -Atiku warns
On December 15, 2010 · In News

By Henry Umoru
A Presidential aspirant on the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar Wednesday warned that if the leadership of the Party and that of the country jettison the already existing zoning arrangement, it would amount to making violence change inevitable.

Speaking Wednesday at National Stakeholders’ Conference, 2010 at the Thisday Dome, Abuja, the former Vice President who noted that he was not praying that the political situation of the party and that of the country should get to the level of applying violent means to address the nation’s problems, also stressed that if the PDP fails to embrace reforms, it stands the risk of making itself irrelevant.

Meanwhile, Former Senate President, Iyorchia Ayu has called on Nigerians especially those from the South to put behind them those eras in the 1960s which produced coups and counter coups in the country, just as northerners became Heads of State during the periods.

According to Ayu, “North is not set out to dominate anybody. I want you to ignore the Nigerian history of 60’s that produced coups and counter coups with its leaders as northerners. It was not conspiratorial on the part of the Northern political leaders, it was accidental.

“When we had opportunity we, not only brought out President Obasanjo who was in prison for treason out, but the north made him President even when his immediate community rejected him. It was the highest show of solidarity by the North. The least our brothers from the south can do is to demonstrate and reciprocate the goodwill.”

Ayu who admitted that the task ahead them is ensuring that the Consensus Candidate for the north, Atiku Abubakar gets the party’s ticket as well as become the President of the country come next year, said, “we are trying to tell you that we have difficult task ahead of us. If you are not present here today, the consensus effort would have been a failure. But with your presence here today, Atiku ceases to be the Northern Consensus Candidate but the Consensus Candidate of Nigeria.”

The Conference which had as its theme, “Building Consensus for National Unity”, was convened by the Northern Political Leaders Forum, NPLF, the Igbo Political Forum, the Yoruba Redemption group and the South South Unity Forum.

Speaking further, Atiku said, “Our coming here is not about Atiku, it is about the peace, the unity and stability of Nigeria as exemplified by all the speakers who spoke to this audience today. Today is about building consensus for national unity. We have some elder statesmen on consensus building. It is about the rule of law, due process and standing for what is right.

“I am an instrument for realizing these value. I promise that by the grace of almighty God, we shall bring this country back to the part of honour. Before I end this short address let me send a message to our great party the PDP: if the PDP does not reform, it stands the risk of making itself irrelevant. Let me again send another message to the leadership of PDP that those who make peaceful change impossible, make violent change inevitable.”

Also in his remarks, former Senate President Ken Nnamani who warned that some leaders of the country were planning to put national unity to the burner, stressed that rotation and zoning which has become part of the nation’s history, was beyond the north, the PDP, adding that it has become a national challenge.

Nnamani who noted that Nigeria has a lot to learn from the process that brought out Atiku Abubakar, stressed that it showed high sense of humility and patriotism, just as he said that if the choice was from some parts of the country, there would have been series of court litigations now, adding that zoning must be adhered to against the backdrop that all political office holders were beneficiary of same process.

The former Senate President who called for the externalization of the Consensus candidate process, also called on Nigerians to disregard comments by the President General of Ohanenze Ndigbo, Ralph Uwachue, adding that as a country, we lack political will to implement agreements, adding that some politicians were over heating the polity for their gains, even as he said that there was tension in PDP because of plans to circumvent the rules.