erico2k2:

I will disagree on this one, ask yourself this, is the Endproduct going internation to fetch Dollars or is it for local mkt then naira
the answer will give you and insight to you initial thought!

@bolded, not directly but indirectly. The dollars will definately flow in albeit at the expense of the countries that will import the mostly white products for as long as they are traded in dollars to hedge against currency volatility. Also, industrialisation will spring up rapidly like in the 60s because of the availability of raw materials from the petrochemical sector, which will decrease and could stop importation of these basic items. You can imagine that we import something as basic as linear alkyl benzene, one of the key ingredients used in the manufacture of detergent...that's if we dont even import the whole detergent. I can't even begin to mention the strategic AKK pipelines, LPG plants, modular refineries, natural gas plants, power generation projects etc that will soon come on stream.

The bottom line is that the key positive trade balance drivers are gradually falling into place. All we need is a good fiscal regime and/or monetry policies to support the potential for industralization.

Golan007:

[s]
Just writing gibberish with confidence.

Do you even understand the basics of supply and demand?

If Mr. A goes to Ouagadougou to buy batik to sell in Ariaria market but suddenly finds he can purchase same quantity and quality of tomatoes in Umuahia:

What would happen to his general income?

Would he save on:

Going to Mompha to buy CFA?

Would he save on travelling to Bobo dialaso for meetings and contract signing?

What happens to Mompha's dollar sale when his big customer no longer shows up?

Would he sell the dollar he had been preserving at the same rate knowing his big customer was coming to mop it up, or would he look to make quick business selling at the lowest but profitable price he can see?

Would Mr. A require dollars for conveyance, landing, even bribing?

[/s]
All the trash U wrote up there bears nothing relative to what we are talking about on here, you have tried to steer it to the hate 9ja path of which u seem to have realised I ain't party to now you are sounding like a confident illiterate!

erico2k2:

All the trash U wrote up there bears nothing relative to what we are talking about on here, you have tried to steer it to the hate 9ja path of which u seem to have realised I ain't party to now you are sounding like a confident illiterate!

[/s]

I'm sure I'm not the only person that has told you how incoherent you are.

Contango:


@bolded, not directly but indirectly. The dollars will definately flow in albeit at the expense of the countries that will import the mostly white products for as long as they are traded in dollars to hedge against currency volatility. Also, industrialisation will spring up rapidly like in the 60s because of the availability of raw materials from the petrochemical sector, which will decrease and could stop importation of these basic items. You can imagine that we import something as basic as linear alkyl benzene, one of the key ingredients used in the manufacture of detergent...that's if we dont even import the whole detergent. I can't even begin to mention the strategic AKK pipelines, LPG plants, modular refineries, natural gas plants, power generation projects etc that will soon come on stream.

The bottom line is that the key positive trade balance units are gradually falling into place. All we need is a good fiscal regime and/or monetry policies to support the potential industralization.

Better write in braille because he is wilfully blind.

Islie:


PUNCH

where will dangote drag his oil from? hope its nt from the east or delta state.

erico2k2:

realy? when did the British build the PH refinary?

It was built in Port Harcourt at Alesa Emese from 1963 to 1965 by Shell and British Petroleum but was sold to the Nigerian government. So if up still now such refineries aren't working to full capacity then Nigeria has a big problem.

seanfer:


This is a private business. It will surely not end like Ajaokuta.

Don't mind the nigga, I wonder how some people reason...

Contango:


@bolded, not directly but indirectly. The dollars will definately flow in albeit at the expense of the countries that will import the mostly white products as long as they are traded in dollars to hedge against currency volatility. Also, industrialisation will spur up rapidly like in the 60s because of availability of raw materials from the petrochemical sector. I can't even begin to mention the strategic AKK pipelines, LPG plants, modular refineries, natural gas plants, power generation projects etc that will soon come on stream.

The bottom line is that the key positive trade balance units are gradually falling into place. All we need is a good fiscal regime and/or monetry policies to support the potential industralization.

I agree with you on your 2nd line, but if you check my reference it was to our local mkt can dish out.if you check the number one eaner we have is crude and it is what determins tthe naira power.The sale of final product AKA petrol and all its derivatives would be a new mkt neither me and you are privy to rather it would be open to speculation of which we all know the makt do not like!FYI check what contries of the world to which export of Premume spirit determins thier currency power by any % then you will agree with me plus the new refinary needs to satisfy the local mkt i n the 1st i nstance.I will give you my personal expirience, I brought my Range rover from the Uk to 9ja, now the Diesel spec is EURo 6 however the Dangote is going to produce Euro 5,so this means for cars made from say 2018 diesel will struggle too. but that is another argument!

FarahAideed:


So ? At many points wasn't Ajaokuta handed over to many private people including steel giant Mittal ?

Who initiated the steel company?

miclef86:
Good news for Dangote but it's going to cause more harm than good in most OPEC's exporting countries.

Yes, but the truth is that refining as a business is no longer bringing those sweet returns in the Western world like before due to a large emphasis on clean energy and production of fuel efficient vehicles. So the coming online of Dangote refinery would precipitate quick closure of some refineries because they have in the past depended on sales to Nigerian customers and other customers in other African countries. if you look now in the global oil market demand is going down gradually and it is also affecting Nigeria as even crude oil sales are going down for us as well.

Golan007:


You skipped too many classes, not to mention that your use of commonsense leaves much to be desired.

How can you compare an Ajaokuta that is government's brainchild, riddled with bureaucratic bottlenecks, various interests including the host community, politicians, fly-by-night business persons with the vision of one man, with a large proportion of the work already done?

You've been off this forum for quite a while, perhaps you were engaged in Big Brother Nigeria issues.

Maybe another of such distraction might be welcomed, considering the level of your contribution on more serious issues.

There is a reason why you will always depend on politics money to survive and it's because you are not a big picture man ..The aim of Dangote refinery has already been defeated the moment this year he mad Nigeria his target market ..and with the way OPEC is talking I doubt cash strapped Dangote will be able get that refinery upto 90 percent utilization..siting that refinery is Lagos is another mistake for another day

sammysmiles:
Who initiated the steel company?

Yiu obviously haven't heard a thing about the international politics against Ajaokuta and that same politics is already hitting Dangote refinery

Golan007:



[s]
I'm sure I'm not the only person that has told you how incoherent you are.[/s]

Bro you have got nothing reasonable to say,you are more than welcome to chat to them lot who share same ideas as U

FarahAideed:


There is a reason why you will always depend on politics money to survive and it's because you are not a big picture man ..The aim of Dangote refinery has already been defeated the moment this year he mad Nigeria his target market ..and with the way OPEC is talking I doubt cash strapped Dangote will be able get that refinery upto 90 percent utilization..siting that refinery is Lagos is another mistake for another day

Honestly, I perceive you dropped out of JSS 3

OPEC is suggesting from this thread, that old refineries are going to face challenges because of New refineries such as Dangote's coming on stream and you are here writing rubbish.

FarahAideed:


There is a reason why you will always depend on politics money to survive and it's because you are not a big picture man ..The aim of Dangote refinery has already been defeated the moment this year he mad Nigeria his target market ..and with the way OPEC is talking I doubt cash strapped Dangote will be able get that refinery upto 90 percent utilization..siting that refinery is Lagos is another mistake for another day

When you talk like this all the guy you quoted sees is anti-Nigeria when the obvious truth is steering us right in the face.Im sure Dangote as a businessman would have gone to the drawing board to re strategise just two days ago the chairman of British Airways stepped down as part of restructuring due to covid wahala! if nah 9ja the rational mindset takes over.

erico2k2:

Bro you have got nothing reasonable to say,you are more than welcome to chat to them lot who share same ideas as U

Just look at how incoherent you are.

Golan007:


Just look at how [b]incoherent [/b]you are.

I think you just heard that word and its meaning today, feel free to use it as much as U like

seanfer:


This is a private business. It will surely not end like Ajaokuta.

I just dey fear, the completion date of that project have been shifted so much. From 2018, 2019, 2020 to first quarter of 2021 now 2022. Nawa, I no be dangote but I can't wait for that project to come on stream

FarahAideed:
I pray Dangote refinery doesn't turn into another Ajaokuta

His own refinery? You think he would let his investment go down the drain just like that?

FarahAideed:


Yiu obviously haven't heard a thing about the international politics against Ajaokuta and that same politics is already hitting Dangote refinery

Lies! Lies!! Lies!!! Lies!!!!.... You think a whole billionaire will venture into a game that he is not aware of the rules?

erico2k2:

I think you just heard that word and its meaning today, feel free to use it as much as U like

You are just deliberately being obstinate.

For goodness sake, how hard is it to understand that eliminating our daily dollar bleed importing refined Petroleum (billions of $ annually) will drastically reduce dollar demand & price? Or that the forex earned from exporting the excess will have a similar impact?

What about the forex saved from importing several petrochemicals, and the multiplier effects it will have on allied industries & the general economy?

Consider these posers rhetorical & ignore if you're unable to respond coherently as I'm not as patient as Golan007.

Golan007:


Honestly, I perceive you dropped out of JSS 3

OPEC is suggesting from this thread, that old refineries are going to face challenges because of New refineries such as Dangote's coming on stream and you are here writing rubbish.

Nigeria is one of the biggest importers of refined products in the world due to govt incompetence and if Dangote comes on stream and started fulfilling the demand of the local market that could affect all the sales projection of European coastal refineries set up supply messed up Economies like Nigeria and this is where International politics comes into play just like it was played with Ajaokuta ( which was far worse because there wasn't even a local market for steel ingots in NIGERIA??

Abouwaza:
There was never a refinery in the first place
You think Nigeria is ready to have a refinery?
Wetin our masters (US and UK) go chop?

USA and UK are not to be blamed for our corruption that didn't allow our refineries to work

sammysmiles:
Lies! Lies!! Lies!!! Lies!!!!.... You think a whole billionaire will venture into a game that he is not aware of the rules?

Do you know how many billionaiares far richer than Dangote that have gone Bankrupt because of investment? I hope you realize that Dangote has already lost 28 percent of his net worth in just 5 years

FarahAideed:


Nigeria is one of the biggest importers of refined products in the world due to govt incompetence and if Dangote comes on stream and started fulfilling the demand of the local market that could affect all the sales projection of European coastal refineries set up supply messed up Economies like Nigeria and this is where International politics comes into play just like it was played with Ajaokuta ( which was far worse because there wasn't even a local market for steel ingots in NIGERIA??

Who are these phantom international politicians you keep referring to?

And how are they more powerful than the international consortium of financial institutions that secured Dangote's multi-billion USD credit?

You claim to be a business analyst yet do not know the fundmentals of credit risk analysis & profiling, of which political & systemic risk is basic?

Alhaji Dangote's Mega-refinery & Petrochemical Plant will definitely be completed soon & production will start to the chagrin of naysayers like you.

QuotaSystem:


Who are these phantom international politicians you keep referring to?

And how are they more powerful than the international consortium of financial institutions that facilitated Dangote's multi-billion USD credit?

50 percent of the refinery so far has been financed by Nigerian banks and so far your so called international consortiums payment lags is the one delaying the project

FarahAideed:


Do you know how many billionaiares far richer than Dangote that have gone Bankrupt because of investment? I hope you realize that Dangote has already lost 28 percent of his net worth in just 5 years

With what you wrote now, I don't know if you want the man to go down who you are jxt being apparent and logical.... Most billionaires that went broke, were into illegal businesses,a lot also went broke, when share collapsed in 2008 and in current debts......... I jxt don't see the reason the refinery won't work the only issue is the tax the government will amass... Dangote has been into landed business enterprise for a while now and is not a novice in this game... Give an example of a billionaire that was engaged in landed enterprise and went broke?

FarahAideed:


50 percent of the refinery so far has been financed by Nigerian banks and so far your so called international consortiums payment lags is the one delaying the project

Stop misinforming the public.

The project delays are mainly logistical & operational, and the delay was largely expected by industry watchers.
Review this independendent analysis to help you.

https://africanminingmarket.com/billionaires-huge-nigerian-oil-refinery-likely-delayed-until-2022/2311/

Even from the OP, why haven't you asked yourself why OPEC (the international cabal of oil politicians) is warning everyone that Dangote is about to chase out old, inefficient refineries around the world if they were so sure his project isn't feasible & just around the corner?

According to OPEC, in Latin America and Africa, there are a number of old and inefficient refineries that have relatively low utilisation rates.

It said, “The new refining capacities, which are projected to come online in the medium to long-term, may increase pressure on these existing plants with two ways out – either closure or refurbishment.

“Both markets are expected to grow considerably, which would support refurbishment of older plants. However, due to the lack of financing and rising internal competition, some of these plants may be closed in the coming years.”

Solsix:

I just dey fear, the completion date of that project have been shifted so much. From 2018, 2019, 2020 to first quarter of 2021 now 2022. Nawa, I no be dangote but I can't wait for that project to come on stream

It was meant to start full operation in 2021 before the COVID-19 outbreak.
I just want it to start operating so that ourNaira can rest and have some value. Because we won’t be importing fuel as much as we are doing now.

seanfer:


This is a private business. It will surely not end like Ajaokuta.

Raw material in Niger Delta, refinery in Lagos. It's no different from Ajaokuta.

So OPEC countries (I'm looking at Saudi, and non-OPEC like Russia) that have been increasing their own capacity with no noise. Nigeria starts, and they're complaining