[size=14pt]Jonathan Maintains Lead, PDP May Lose More States[/size]
07 Apr 2011
President Goodluck Jonathan

By Collins Edomaruse

With nine days to the presidential election, President Goodluck Jonathan, the candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is most likely to win at first ballot, going by the latest results from the poll conducted for THISDAY by Ipsos, the world’s leading market research company.

But on the down side, the ruling party may lose more than the five states earlier predicted in the governorship election as voters continue to make their decisions ahead of the polls.
In the survey conducted nationwide between March 20 and April 4 – the second wave in the series – 62.1 per cent of the respondents said they would vote for Jonathan, representing a marginal 1.8 percentage point increase above the previous poll conducted between February 25 and March 16, 2011 and published on March 21.

Major General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) came second with 23.6 per cent (up from 22.4 per cent in the first wave), Malam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) scored 6 per cent (up from 4.7 per cent), and Malam Ibrahim Shekarau of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) got 1.9 per cent (down from 5.9 per cent). Undecided dropped from 6.4 per cent to 6.2 per cent.

Going by the nationwide results, the presidential race is now effectively between Jonathan and Buhari, with Ribadu and Shekarau failing to record any significant improvement among the polled electorate.
The results show that Jonathan could win in all the geo-political zones, except North-west where Buhari is strongest.
Jonathan has clear leads in 25 states – Abia, Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Ekiti, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Kaduna, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba, and FCT. He holds narrow leads in two states – Bauchi and Osun – but has lost his lead in Niger to Buhari, although he gained Bauchi and Ekiti during the period.
Buhari holds clear leads in six states – Borno, Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi, Yobe and Zamfara – and narrow leads in three – Katsina, Niger and Sokoto.

The winner of the presidential election is required to score a simple majority of votes in addition to a minimum of 25 per cent in at least 24 states of the federation.
Going by the results of the survey, Jonathan will score at least 25 per cent in 32 states and FCT. He may however fail to hit the percentage in four states – Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi and Yobe.
It may be an uphill task for Buhari who is likely to meet the requirement in only 14 states and FCT, while failing in 22 states. Instructively, he did not score 25 per cent of the polled samples in any of the 17 Southern states.

He may also fail to meet the requirement in five Northern states, namely Adamawa, Benue, Kogi, Kwara and Taraba.
In the governorship, PDP could lose as many as six states – up from five predicted in the last wave of polling. It was predicted two weeks ago that PDP could lose five states in the governorship election—Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Imo and Kebbi.
However, the latest results show that while PDP could win 16 states, it could as well lose six states to the opposition, while another four hang in the balance.

For now, Bauchi is off the danger list for the PDP, but Ogun, Kwara, Kaduna and Nasarawa are endangered.
Kwara is tilting towards ACN, Kaduna and Nasarawa towards CPC. Although PDP is recovering lost ground in Delta and Kebbi, the leads are so marginal that it could swing either way. Democratic Peoples Party (DPP) is breathing down the neck of PDP in Delta while in Kebbi, the CPC is giving the party a run for its money.

Five states currently controlled by the PDP are too close to call – Adawama, which is a three-horse race involving PDP, CPC and ACN; Ebonyi, where ANPP is making a strong showing; Oyo, where again ACN is pushing forward; and Plateau, where the Deputy Governor, Pauline Tallen, who is running on the platform of Labour Party (LP), is doing very well.
ACN is gaining significantly across the states, notably Ogun and Kwara. In Ogun, the party is in clear lead ahead of the PDP, while in Kwara, it seems Saraki, the father and the son, may have to join forces to ward off the third force. Dr. Olusola Saraki is backing the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) candidate, Senator Gbemisola Saraki, while Governor Bukola Saraki is backing the PDP candidate, Alhaji AbdulFatah Ahmed.

Ipsos conducted 8,289 face-to-face and 3,270 telephonic interviews for this study.
Interviews were conducted with Nigerian adults aged 18+ who are registered to vote in the elections in April 2011.
The fieldwork was conducted from March 20th to April 4th by means of in-home interviews by trained Ipsos interviewers. The face-to-face sample was drawn from a stratified random selection of sampling points across all states in Nigeria. Telephonic fieldwork was conducted by means of re-contacting a panel of respondents who agreed to partake in this polling study after an earlier representative face-to-face survey. Quotas were set by state.

Overall data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
Interviews were conducted in all 36 states of the federation and the FCT. The interviews were conducted in the language of choice of the respondents: English, Pidgin, Igbo, Yoruba or Hausa.
All sample surveys are subject to statistical error, depending on sample size, interviewing methodology and response rate.
The margin of error for this poll is 0.93. This means that in 95 out of every 100 cases, the findings will fall within +/- 0.93 per cent range when looking at the national results. Base sizes for individual states vary but are much lower which means that the margin of error is wider for state results.
On a state level, the margin of error varies between +/- 5.8 per cent and +/- 6.3 per cent.

States PDP May Lose

BAYELSA
Silva PDP 34%
Alaibe LP 47%
Undecided 19%

BENUE
Suswam PDP 20%
Ugbah ACN 76%
Saror ANPP 1%
Undecided 3%

IMO
Ohakim PDP 21%
Araraume ACN 9%
Okorocha APGA 54%
Undecided 14%

KWARA
Ahmed PDP 34%
Belgore ACN 41%
Saraki ACPN 12%
Undecided 12%

NASARAWA
Doma PDP 39%
Almakura CPC 45%
Aboki LP 9%
Undecided 8%

OGUN
Olurin PDP 24%
Amosun ACN 55%
Isiaka PPN 4%
Undecided 16%


Who Would You Vote For?

Jonathan
62.1%

Buhari
23.6%

Ribadu
6%

Shekarau
1.9%





http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/jonathan-maintains-lead-pdp-may-lose-more-states/89182/

@op,
be ready for attacks and pelting from the usual lynchers

kasiem:

@op,
be ready for attacks and pelting from the usual lynchers

Lol! Dem no de fear fear?
Yes. I'd expected the same funnies to come in here talking ridiculous stories about how World respected Ipsos is actually a branch of ThisDay.
I guess though that many will avoid this topic, because any Ipsos poll the World over is always within -+3% of the truth.

GEJ's lead is actually strengthening as we near the polls.
Nice.

For once Beaf is "Right". . . .

Same polls also show that if GEJ should lose Nigerian Presidential Elections, and overwhelming 98% of The U.S population say they would like to have him as their President instead of Barack Obama. Most of the people polled cited admiration for Dame Patience Jonathan and the way she pronounced "Unbullerra" as their reason for wanting them as leaders of the free world~!

This sicknesses is graduating to madness. Why are u calling dame in this matter? Is it to display ur ignorance of bbmanism?

These Polls and the Newspaper have already been discredited.

Imagine, ThisDay Journalists as "interviewers"!! LOL!!

kasiem:

This sicknesses is graduating to madness. Why are u calling dame in this matter? Is it to display your ignorance of bbmanism?

Dude, ignore the insect, at least it recognised that Ipsos is World respected. Allow it to express its jealousy.
62% and 26 states can cause fever. LOL!

[size=21pt]Fresh Air 2011!!![/size]

appletango:

These Polls and the Newspaper have already been discredited.

Imagine, ThisDay Journalists as "interviewers"!! LOL!!

This is crass ignorance. Who discredited Ipsos? Almajiri's?
I am sure you have no clue of what Ipsos is.

Ipsos S.A. (Euronext: IPS) is a global market research company headquartered in Paris, France. The Company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1 July 1999. Since 1990, the Group has created or acquired companies in more than 60 countries.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipsos

Read what John Campbell (someone who knows more about Nigerian politics than you ever will) thinks about your beloved poll.

And I find it very interesting how you choose to ignore the key point here: NIGERIANS (NOT IPSOS STAFF) conducted the "interviews". IPSOS only collated the "results" and put their name to it.

You never see the whole picture beaf? Your mind always operates in fist gear.

after this debacle am not surprise.

A female friend of mine who is an EU representative for the election is in Nigeria at the moment, her job is to samples electorate choices ( in rural and urban communities) for statistical comparison when result are eventually released. She called to fluff and tell me how she is enjoying the warm weather, the people and their rich culture, visiting places etc, when  I asked what we should be expecting, she remained professional/ethical, but in her answered she said " Its obvious more people love the sitting president" and u all knows what that means. I think the Buharist need a refined strategy if they want to do well in this election.

omanzo02:

A female friend of mine who is an EU representative for the election is in Nigeria at the moment, her job is to samples electorate choices ( in rural and urban communities) for statistical comparison when result are eventually released. She called to fluff and tell me how she is enjoying the warm weather, the people and their rich culture, visiting places etc, when  I asked what we should be expecting, she remained professional/ethical, but in her answered she said " Its obvious more people love the sitting president" and u all knows what that means. I think the Buharist need a refined strategy if they want to do well in this election.

most of the foreign diplomats in abuja know the PDP can't win the presidential election in a free and fair contest. FACT.

omanzo02:

A female friend of mine who is an EU representative for the election is in Nigeria at the moment, her job is to samples electorate choices ( in rural and urban communities) for statistical comparison when result are eventually released. She called to fluff and tell me how she is enjoying the warm weather, the people and their rich culture, visiting places etc, when  I asked what we should be expecting, she remained professional/ethical, but in her answered she said " Its obvious more people love the sitting president" and u all knows what that means. I think the Buharist need a refined strategy if they want to do well in this election.

Your story sounded fake as hell, hence my decision to check your Previous Posts to see where ur support lay. . . . .

You didnt disappoint!

Even in 2003 when Buhari was not half this popular, he polled 32%.
He will easily poll 45% at least this time around.

I cant comment on the full Poll, but I doubt the prediction or poll os Delta state. It will be near impossible for PDP to win that state. Did anyone on here actually participate in the said Polls?

appletango:

Read what John Campbell (someone who knows more about Nigerian politics than you ever will) thinks about your beloved poll.

And I find it very interesting how you choose to ignore the key point here: NIGERIANS (NOT IPSOS STAFF) conducted the "interviews". IPSOS only collated the "results" and put their name to it.

You never see the whole picture beaf? Your mind always operates in fist gear.

So John Campbell is now the measure of the effectiveness of professional, PhD equipped statisticians? Dude, your argument is very worrying.
I have every in Ipsos above any hearsay, thank you!

Jarus:

Even in 2003 when Buhari was not half this popular, he polled 32%.
He will easily poll 45% at least this time around.

Buhari is not more popular than he was in 2003.
The crowds he has pulled in the North always have a very high percentage of underage folk and cannot be taken as a measure of popularity. Thats what the Ipsos poll is picking up.
If anything, Buhari is even less popular in the South and Middle Belt than he was in 2003.

WHO IS NOT AWARE OF GEJ'S DESPERATION TO BE SEEN AS D FAVOURITE IN THIS CONTEST?ARE U AWARE OF D BRIBE HE GAVE TO EDITORS AND JOURNALISTS?

BEAF IS A PDP MAN AND WILL ALWAYS PROJECT PDP AS A WINNER.
HAVE YOU EVER CONSIDERED THAT THISDAY WHICH I HAVE NEVER CONSIDERED AS A NEWSPAPER of note AND WHICH I BELIEVE IS OWNED BY A PDP APOLOGIST MIGHT HAVE BRIBED THE SO CALLED IPSO? AFTER ALL NIGERIA EDITORS AND JOURNALISTS HAVE BEEN BRIBED WITH GALAXY MODEL CELL PHONE?

Beaf:

So John Campbell is now the measure of the effectiveness of professional, PhD equipped statisticians? Dude, your argument is very worrying.
I have every in Ipsos above any hearsay, thank you!

i see. so a former US ambassador and spook is somehow inferior to a newspaper in the pocket of this current administration. you are a very interesting dude. i understand your determination to see a fellow NDan win but in doing so you are coming across as a bit dim.

Beaf:

Buhari is not more popular than he was in 2003.
The crowds he has pulled in the North always have a very high percentage of underage folk and cannot be taken as a measure of popularity. Thats what the Ipsos poll is picking up.
If anything, Buhari is even less popular in the South and Middle Belt than he was in 2003.

you really have no idea what's going on in this country.

cjfavour:

BEAF IS A PDP MAN AND WILL ALWAYS PROJECT PDP AS A WINNER.
HAVE YOU EVER CONSIDERED THAT THISDAY WHICH I HAVE NEVER CONSIDERED AS A NEWSPAPER of note AND WHICH I BELIEVE IS OWNED BY A PDP APOLOGIST MIGHT HAVE BRIBED THE SO CALLED IPSO? AFTER ALL NIGERIA EDITORS  AND JOURNALISTS HAVE BEEN BRIBED WITH GALAXY MODEL CELL PHONE?

dude, you are right to a certain extent but that's not how the IPSOS/THISDAY partnership works. in this particular instance THISDAY has provided the field interviewers/journalists for the "poll". IPSOS literally only provided their name to be plastered over it so that beaf and co can spam you with it on here. You can call them and ask them how many full time IPSOS employees (non-nigerians) they have working in Nigeria at the moment if you like.

in fact, no, you cant. they HAD the office address up on their website not so long ago and now - SURPRISE SURPRISE - it's down. 

http://www.ipsos.com/content/ipsos-nigeria

timbuk two:

i see. so a former US ambassador and spook is somehow inferior to a newspaper in the pocket of this current administration. you are a very interesting dude. i understand your determination to see a fellow NDan win but in doing so you are coming across as a bit dim.

I don't know if you are being deliberately shy to learn, sir. But Ipsos is not a branch of ThisDay, in fact it is totally ridiculous to even aver such.
You need to educate yourself, cos your arguments are completely tragic and up the wall.

[size=14pt]Ipsos[/size]
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Ipsos S.A. (Euronext: IPS) is a global market research company headquartered in Paris, France. The Company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1 July 1999. Since 1990, the Group has created or acquired companies in more than 60 countries.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipsos

Ipsos is the 5th biggest market research company in the World, generating in excess of a billion dollars from sales of scientifically accurate statistics: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ipsos#Top_10_of_the_Market_Research_Sector_2009

Comparing John Campbell to Ipsos is as ridiculous as comparing a pack of baboons to PhD holding Havard University researchers.

This poll seems very believable.

you keep on screaming IPSOS IPSOS IPSOS IPSOS but you dont even no how they operate, do you? if you did then you'll realise the importance of having a media partner - in this case THISDAY - in order for them to carry out their work. THISDAY are providing the bulk of the staff for conducting the polls. and we all know the THISDAY "story".

damn!! explaining things to you is like explaining things to a child.

EzeUche:

This poll seems very believable.

lucky for us no one cares what YOU think

I'm sure the president's first name has a lot to do with his mass appeal. Voting against that name feels almost sacrilegious. 

Lol funny poll.

timbuk two:



lucky for us no one cares what YOU think

You BB people need to wake up before it is too late. I am fearing how you all will react when BB loses big throughout Nigeria except for the core North. But looking at where Buhari is getting his main support, we know it is from the uneducated masses in the North, one has shutter why anyone but these illiterate would support the man.

EzeUche:

You BB people need to wake up before it is too late. I am fearing how you all will react when BB loses big throughout Nigeria except for the core North. But looking at where Buhari is getting his main support, we know it is from the uneducated masses in the North, one has shutter why anyone but these illiterate would support the man.

the polls are coming soon. do you promise not to burn your oil wells when you lose? or are you gonna do a sadam?

EzeUche:

Seems like fstranger cannot understand simple English. A pity isn't it. No wonder he is ridiculed in all sections that he post.

EzeUche:

You BB people need to wake up before it is too late. I am fearing how you all will react when BB loses big throughout Nigeria except for the core North. But looking at where Buhari is getting his main support, we know it is from the uneducated masses in the North, one [size=18pt]has shutter[/size] why anyone but these illiterate would support the man.

Mr. I am the best English speaker on NL

I dey laugh oooooooooo

Ezeuche nor go kill me for hia oooooooo

mu he he he heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Ipsos poll indeed, Time will tell. PDP should be ready for a shocker in this year election. Our eyes have opened, we refused to be control by mumuism,

BB all the way 2011

Many people will carefully avoid nairaland for one whole month after the election. Some others will come back to whine about everything ranging from rigging, Ringim, GEJA and Jega. I dey laugh ooo!