⁠The Northern Gang-up against Goodluck Jonathan

  

Wednesday, 13 April 2011 01:08

Opposition parties were locked in a crucial meeting last night in Abuja over their chances in Saturday’s presidential election. The parties met to choose among three candidates – Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (CPC), Ribadu and Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau (ANPP), who was not at the meeting last night. He was in Lagos. At the end of the parley, Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, the presidential candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, was forced to step down for General Muhammadu Buhari, presidential candidate of the Congress Party of Nigeria, CPC, according to elombah.com earlier report.

 

Sources also say Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau, the presidential candidate of the All Nigeria Peoples Party is expected to follow suit later today.

 

It was not immediately certain the place and feeling of former Lagos State Governor, Bola Tinubu in the entire arrangement. 

 

The Northern Political Leaders Forum, NPLF on Tuesday started pressuring Ribadu to step down. The action, it was gathered, was to enable the ACN and the CPC to forge a partnership towards the Saturday’s presidential election. For many hours yesterday, Northern leaders and some key opposition figures weighed  options on how to wrest the presidency from the PDP, which is fielding incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan.

elombah.com gathered that two former Heads of State, three ex-governors, a former National Security Adviser and a former Secretary to the Government of the Federation and ex-ministers were part of the deal being brokered.

The first meeting was between Buhari and the former military president, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida; former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar; former Inspector General of Police, Alhaji M.D. Yusuf, former National Security Adviser, General Aliyu Gusau and the former minister of Finance, Mallam Adamu Ciroma. It is all geared towards stopping the PDP and President Goodluck Jonathan in his tracks.

The outcome of last weekend’s National Assembly polls, which gave the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) a huge lead, jolted them into action.

Leaders of the North started mounting pressure on the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) to present a common candidate on Saturday. 

The ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) has won every presidential race since the end of military rule in 1999 and Jonathan is considered the favourite, but the opposition parties are hoping their regional strengths could force a run-off.

 

A SUICIDAL MOVE FOR ACN 

 

Commenting on the ACN-CPC pact a Nigerian Political analyst, Mr Albert Ayeni said: "this is a suicidal move for ACN as far as the 2011 elections are concerned! This is not good in a year of free, fair, and transparent elections!!! The youth wing can see through the ganging up! They remember the history of last minute accords between political parties in Nigeria! It has never worked and it serves no significant purpose beyond a momentary self aggrandizement for a few. 

"In my view the young, articulate Mallam Nuhu Ribadu at the head of an ACN/CPC "alliance" would attract greater support from the youths (70% of voters) and give President Goodluck Jonathan/Arch Sambo a fiercer run for the coveted position. If General Buhari's clout is not strong enough to make inroads in the mainstream Northwest, where are the votes going to come from?  --- The gap may be wider now than I once speculated! 

"In any case, an ACN/CPC alliance in itself if pursued seriously to a logical conclusion is good for the future of progressive politics in Nigeria. At least between the two parties, the geographical spread would improve and sectionalism would diminish, giving rise to an opposition strong enough to balance PDP's power in the country.  We most certainly need a strong opposition to check the party in power, always.

"As far as April 16 2011 elections are concerned, I could see the hand writings fairly well! With another free, fair, and transparent election championed by no one other than our young, decent, erudite, consensus building, humble and skillful politician, President Jonathan, I can sleep better with General Buhari as the flag bearer for the ACN/CPC alliance than if it were Mallam Ribadu! General Buhari cannot be a game changer this late in the game!"

 

Regional Strongholds

 

Buhari has strong support in parts of the mostly Muslim north while the ACN has its stronghold in the southwest.

There remain significant hurdles to any deal, not least selling it to the respective party faithful just days before the election. It is already too late to re-print ballot papers and any agreement could backfire by creating confusion.

"I don't know if everybody is happy with it. There may be time to complete a deal but not to sell a deal. It remains to be seen if this agreement can cross the finishing line," said one opposition source who declined to be named.

Last Saturday's parliamentary polls, in which the ACN gained seats but the CPC failed to perform as strongly as expected in some areas, fueled the negotiations.

 

Out of the 91 senatorial election results officially declared by INEC so far, the PDP has won 59; ACN, 14; and the CPC six. The All Nigeria Peoples Party has seven seats. 

For the House of Representatives election, the PDP has won 140 out of 263 results released so far. ACN and CPC have 52 and 35 respectively. 

The PDP -- which has dominated Nigerian politics since 1999 -- lost ground in the parliamentary vote, considered by observers to have been the most credible in Nigeria for decades. Based on results released so far, its majority in the lower house could slip to just over half from three quarters.

The opposition is hoping that momentum could carry it through to a strong showing in the presidential election and governorship votes in the 36 states a week later.

But the PDP has a national machinery where the main opposition parties remain essentially regional players. Forming a credible alliance to overcome that hurdle at such a late stage could prove difficult.

 

TRIBAL POLITICS AND IMPLICATION FOR ETHNIC HARMONY

 

Commenting on this Northern gang-up, a public commentator Dominic Ogonna asked; "As General Buhari teams up with General IBB, General Gusau, Atiku and Ciroma, should our Yoruba brothers throw a lifeline to the Hausa-Fulani oligarchy?  Should the ACN accept to be a junior partner to a party that is mostly a coalition of Boko Haram enthusiasts, a party that has Absolutely No Future beyond April 16 if it looses the election on Saturday? 

"A coalition between PDP's IBB, PDP's Gusau, PDP's Atiku, PDP's Ciroma, and CPC's Buhari is NOT a coalition to redeem Nigeria from PDP. It is quite simply a coalition of the hegemonic  ETHNO-military power-bloc. So now that we have the cabal on the ropes, do the Yorubas want to recycle the same cabal that we have all fought against?

 

"Of all the Southern Peoples, will the Yoruba be the ONLY Southerners who throw their weight behind the IBB power bloc? For what? To resurrect

a clearly dying cabal?

"It was General IBB and Atiku and Ciroma who handed Nigeria over to OBJ -against the wishes of everybody else, including the South-West! Our political history shows that certain mistakes are difficult to recover from.  The tiff between Chief Awolowo and Dr Azikiwe back in 1952, for example, continues to reverberate over the ages.  

"So before they piss off their South-South neighbors, and before they acquire a reputation as the neighbor who will stab you in the back for a quick pot of short-term porridge, I urge our Yoruba brothers to think real hard, about both the short  and the long term implications of what is about to happen here. Nobody should give a lease of life to the beleaguered old guard. What we need is not another re-cycled high-handed despot.  What we need is a new generation of politicians who will respond to the electorate -someone who will deliver fair elections to the people when they insist on it, as Jonathan is doing". 

PDP not lying low

 

But President Jonathan yesterday intensified his talks with the North’s leadership.

He received some of the leaders of the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF), Mallam Tanko Yakasai; former Speaker of the House Representatives Ghali Umar Na’Abba and Alhaji Aminu Wali, among others.

Na’Abba said Jonathan is not a “do-or-die” politician by, according to him, allowing credible parliamentary elections. 

Both of them spoke to reporters after meeting with the President.

 

Jonathan spoke on the election saying the nation was unstoppable in its determination to conduct free, fair and credible elections.

The President, in a posting on his Facebook page, said: “Together, we sent last Saturday and we will again by the grace of God next Saturday a message send a loud message to the world that Nigeria is on an unstoppable forward movement to free, fair and credible elections and a post election period of peace, progress and stability.“ 

In the opposition talks, those involved were groups, such as the ACN, CPC, ANPP, Northern Political Leaders Forum, G-3 and Mega Summit Group.

A source, who spoke in confidence, told The Nation Newspaper: “The moment of truth is here. All the big men in the North are part of the last-minute deal to present a common candidate.

“I think the opposition leaders are considering a working alliance to support a candidate among the three leading ones from the North on Saturday.

“What informed the latest alliance was the need to salvage the nation from the grip of the PDP. It is not an ethnic gang-up, but a timely meeting to save the nation from the clutches of the PDP.

“The opposition leaders have realised that none of the three candidates from the North can go it alone without a working alliance.

“But the nature of the alliance is such that every group will be part of the emerging power game and the three presidential candidates will partake in an all-inclusive government.”

Another source said: “Many factors are being considered. The political future of two of the three candidates that will step down is more of concern to their supporters than the alliance itself.

“That is why those at the negotiating table are insisting on a written agreement before any candidate is chosen. 

“We have the challenge of intense mobilisation in the next three to four days to convince our supporters to vote for a consensus candidate.”

Representatives of the three candidates also met last night on the way forward.

The spokesman for Shekarau Campaign Organisation, Mallam Sule Yau Sule said: “Discussions are ongoing, but the final decision is yet to be taken. The target is to adopt a common candidate; that is where they are heading to.”

Ribadu last night summoned a meeting of his campaign directorate for consultations.

Reacting to the planned ACN-CPC alliance for the presidential poll, the Director of Media and Publicity, PDP Presidential Campaign Council, Mallam Aba Dabo, also told THE PUNCH in Abuja, that President Goodluck Jonathan would win the election overwhelmingly. 

Dabo, in an interview said, “The overwhelming performance of the PDP in the election is a confirmation of the PDP’s widespread acceptance by majority of Nigerians. 

“This result has vindicated our position all along that the PDP is the only truly national political party from which all Nigerians can realise their political ambitions. 

“There is no second ballot in this situation. Those who are thinking of it should perish the thought. We have the requirement for the spread. The requirement for the majority votes is assured.” 

Dabo said the PDP was not threatened by the planned alliance between the CPC and the ACN.

Citing the results of the National Assembly elections, he stated,“They do not have the number and the spread to threaten us.”

"A coalition between PDP's IBB, PDP's Gusau, PDP's Atiku, PDP's Ciroma, and CPC's Buhari is NOT a coalition to redeem Nigeria from PDP. It is quite simply a coalition of the hegemonic  ETHNO-military power-bloc. So now that we have the cabal on the ropes, do the Yorubas want to recycle the same cabal that we have all fought against?
This are the same people that wants to bring change to nigeria!!