By Tonye Barcanista

In this writeup, I shall draw contrast between what the Northwest, the highest voting bloc in the north and the Southeast, the a strong voting bloc delivered to Muhammadu Buhari and Goodluck Jonathan in the 2011 election, which was adjudged to be relatively free and fair.

NB: I deliberately used Southeast and not Southsouth because the Southeast is the most politically vilified

Votes N-West Gave Buhari In 2011
Jigawa - 663,994

Kaduna - 1,334,244

Kano - 1,624,543

Katsina - 1,163,919

Kebbi - 501,453

Sokoto - 540,769

Zamfara - 624,515

Total: 6,453,437

Votes Southeast Gave Jonathan In 2011
ANAMBRA
PDP/Jonathan -1,145,169

EBONYI
PDP/Jonathan - 480,592

IMO
PDP/Jonathan - 1,406, 289

ENUGU
PDP/Jonathan - 882,144

ABIA
PDP/Jonathan - 1,175,954

Total: 5,090,148

ANALYSIS

1. The Northwest with 7 states only gave Buhari 6,453,437 votes compared to 5,090,148 that just 5 states of Southeast delivered to Jonathan. Yet, power brokers up north keep pushing the narrative that just 2 states of the Northwest is enough to swallow the entire Southeast.

2. (a) In that election, a section of Kaduna state, notably Southern Kaduna, delivered 1,190,179 votes to Jonathan. That plus was almost enough to neutralise entire Northwestern votes when combined with Southeastern votes.

(b) I deliberately used Northwest vs Southeast because N-West is the zone northern power brokers usually cite to justify the need to hold power, while S-East is the zone they usually victimised.

3. It is interesting to note that the votes of the Southeast only reduced significantly since the introduction of Card Reader in 2015 and 2019. This can also be seen in votes from the Southsouth and Southwest. In contrast to this, the votes of the Northwest and Northeastern parts that are favorable to Buhari was not affected by the card reader.

4. The only explanation to 3 (above) is that the card reader was introduced to deliberately shortchange the Southeast (and entire south). This is the only justification for political power brokers in the far north to continue to hold the illogical position that Southeast electorates don't have the voting population.

5. In view of (4) above, the only way to reject any form of institutional disenfranchisement in 2023 is for the Southeast and the entire south to reject INEC's card reader like they do up north. Let everyone vote manually!

6. Should PDP zone its 2023 presidential ticket to the Southsouth or Southeast, the bloc votes recorded in 2011 in both zones will not just be replicated but improved on.

For the sake of emphasis, the Southsouth delivered 6,118,608 votes to Jonathan in that 2011 election - much more than what Buhari got in Northeast.

7. I believe that this analysis has rubbished the propaganda that the South won't deliver to PDP if given the party nomination.


Written by Tonye Barcanista Inioribo

If card readers were the issue how do you now explain the mass voter aparty that was experienced in the south-east during the past election. A situation where there were voting materials but nobody to vote, it happened in my state and the local government chairman had to mobilise to announce it over and over but no response. Everybody was just either playing football, gisting or resting, it was a bad sight. Even collection of PVC people still refused to come collect their own during distribution and the councillor decided to mobilise for door to door delivery and still people refused to comply. Leave south-east wahala o, people have lost interest a long time ago.

An unequal society forms d basis for lawlessness

TonyeBarcanista:
By Tonye Barcanista

In this writeup, I shall draw contrast between what the Northwest, the highest voting bloc in the north and the Southeast, the a strong voting bloc delivered to Muhammadu Buhari and Goodluck Jonathan in the 2011 election, which was adjudged to be relatively free and fair.

NB: I deliberately used Southeast and not Southsouth because the Southeast is the most politically vilified

Votes N-West Gave Buhari In 2011
Jigawa - 663,994

Kaduna - 1,334,244

Kano - 1,624,543

Katsina - 1,163,919

Kebbi - 501,453

Sokoto - 540,769

Zamfara - 624,515

Total: 6,453,437

Votes Southeast Gave Jonathan In 2011
ANAMBRA
PDP/Jonathan -1,145,169

EBONYI
PDP/Jonathan - 480,592

IMO
PDP/Jonathan - 1,406, 289

ENUGU
PDP/Jonathan - 882,144

ABIA
PDP/Jonathan - 1,175,954

Total: 5,090,148

ANALYSIS

1. The Northwest with 7 states only gave Buhari 6,453,437 votes compared to 5,090,148 that just 5 states of Southeast delivered to Jonathan. Yet, power brokers up north keep pushing the narrative that just 2 states of the Northwest is enough to swallow the entire Southeast.

2. (a) In that election, a section of Kaduna state, notably Southern Kaduna, delivered 1,190,179 votes to Jonathan. That plus was almost enough to neutralise entire Northwestern votes when combined with Southeastern votes.

(b) I deliberately used Northwest vs Southeast because N-West is the zone northern power brokers usually cite to justify the need to hold power, while S-East is the zone they usually victimised.

3. It is interesting to note that the votes of the Southeast only reduced significantly since the introduction of Card Reader in 2015 and 2019. This can also be seen in votes from the Southsouth and Southwest. In contrast to this, the votes of the Northwest and Northeastern parts that are favorable to Buhari was not affected by the card reader.

4. The only explanation to 3 (above) is that the card reader was introduced to deliberately shortchange the Southeast (and entire south). This is the only justification for political power brokers in the far north to continue to hold the illogical position that Southeast electorates don't have the voting population.

5. In view of (4) above, the only way to reject any form of institutional disenfranchisement in 2023 is for the Southeast and the entire south to reject INEC's card reader like they do up north. Let everyone vote manually!

6. Should PDP zone its 2023 presidential ticket to the Southsouth or Southeast, the bloc votes recorded in 2011 in both zones will not just be replicated but improved on.

For the sake of emphasis, the Southsouth delivered 6,118,608 votes to Jonathan in that 2011 election - much more than what Buhari got in Northeast.

7. I believe that this analysis has rubbished the propaganda that the South won't deliver to PDP if given the party nomination.


Written by Tonye Barcanista Inioribo

Finally someone said it

80% of votes in the core north were from manual accreditation while in the south it was less than 30% ...the evil is too much

Blame GEJ for this, did he not see how OBJ used SE INEC chairmen and Senate Presidents to neutralize the north？why Jega at that critical juncture？

Card reader that disapointed Jonathan,the enabler on voting day. Atiku that was counting on inec server to favour him in court lost.
Better to do everything manually,because inec server is not part of electoral process is what we will hear when it gets to court.

I prefer Electronic voting.

This propaganda won’t still force the north handover power to the south
This is democracy for Christ sake

Anyways south east 2023 or nothing

2015 and 2019 elections were marred with irregularities to favour buhari. We saw videos where teenagers were massively thumbprinting for the apc in the north and one old man watched on, with cash in his hands to share with them. If INEC eventually walks their talk by embracing electronic voting system eventually, there's going to be war because northerners are election riggers historically. They may not accept the result if it doesn't favour their candidate . It would be worse than 2011 riot as instigated by Buhari in his usual unguarded utterances.

It still amazes me how borno, a war torn state recorded such huge number of votes when a great number of electorate had been displaced with lots housed in the IDP camps.

Right now, the number of BVN entolees in Lagos is higher than that of kano by millions. In a free and fair election, there's no way the north could have an upper hand in any general election, expecially those deciding who would be president of Nigeria, should the candidate come from the south. When the north recently claimed that they voted obasanjo a northerner massively , I laff. They had no option than to do so because their military leaders had said power must go to the south as backed by the UN when Nigeria was returning to democracy in 1999. After the election, they came up with political sharia to topple his government because he didn't allow them to share free money. The earlier the south realises that the north would never feel cool with a southern candidate and, the better for them. We have two countries in Nigeria, the north and south.

Hmmm

Calling for the total rejection of card reader in 2023 is not the way forward but several steps backward. We should be pushing for the total usage of card readers in 2023 across board. Incidence form or manual accreditation should be totally discarded. The electoral act should be amended to make the use of card readers mandatory for accreditation and anybody that can’t pass through the card readers should not be allowed to vote.

seunmsg:
Calling for the total rejection of card reader in 2023 is not the way forward but several steps backward. We should be pushing for the total usage of card readers in 2023 across board. Incidence form or manual accreditation should be totally discarded. The electoral act should be amended to make the use of card readers mandatory for accreditation and anybody that can’t pass through the card readers should not be allowed to vote.

The whole North will never use card readers on the day of election. It's a well known fact

criminalmindz:

The whole North will never use card readers on the day of election. It's a well known fact

If it’s in the law, they will have no choice than to comply. The problem for now is that the card reader is still not recognized as a means of accreditation by the law. As a result, the court cannot enforce its usage.

seunmsg:
Calling for the total rejection of card reader in 2023 is not the way forward but several steps backward. We should be pushing for the total usage of card readers in 2023 across board. Incidence form or manual accreditation should be totally discarded. The electoral act should be amended to make the use of card readers mandatory for accreditation and anybody that can’t pass through the card readers should not be allowed to vote.

Card Reader should be rejected in 2023 in the south

Lol. They are talking about 2011 when Buhari contested under CPC that had no governor, LG chairman, no single senator/rep.. he didn't even have any funds to campaign in any of the southern state

And at that period, there was a national consensus that GEJ should be supported for presidency when Obasanjo went up north to plead on his behalf as a minority that can dose the agitation in Niger Delta... that he will also contest just for one term

That's why a lot of northern elites worked against Buhari because of all these understanding, but the OP tactically left all these segment of reality out

Kyase:
This propaganda won’t still force the north handover power to the south
This is democracy for Christ sake

Anyways south east 2023 or nothing

Polar politics

Lol. Yes there is under age voting in the north, but we all know their is rampant ballot snatching and stuffing in the South.. Bros, abeg remove the log from ur eyes, stop acting like the south is some sort of safe heaven election wise

It's an open secret elections in the south have always been more volatile, deadly, explosive and unstable both Presidential and gubernatorial

Eriokanmi:
2015 and 2019 elections were marked with irregularities to favour buhari. We saw videos where teenagers were massively thumbprinting for the apc in the north and one old man watched on, with cash in his hands to share with them. If INEC eventually walks their talk by embracing electronic voting system eventually, there's going to be war because northerners are election riggers historically. They may not accept the result if it doesn't favour their candidate . It would be worse than 2011 riot as instigated by Buhari in his usual unguarded utterances.

It still amazes me how borno, a war torn state recorded such huge number of votes when a great number of electorate had been displaced with lots housed in the IDP camps.

Right now, the number of BVN entolees in Lagos is higher than that of kano by millions. In a free and fair election, there's no way the north could have an upper hand in any general election, expecially those deciding who would be president of Nigeria, should the candidate come from the south. When the north recently claimed that they voted obasanjo a northerner massively , I laff. They had no option than to do so because their military leaders had said power must go to the south as backed by the UN when Nigeria was returning to democracy in 1999. After the election, they came up with political sharia to topple his government because he didn't allow them to share free money. The earlier the south realises that the north would never feel cool with a southern candidate and, the better for them. We have two countries in Nigeria, the north and south.

TonyeBarcanista:
By Tonye Barcanista

In this writeup, I shall draw contrast between what the Northwest, the highest voting bloc in the north and the Southeast, the a strong voting bloc delivered to Muhammadu Buhari and Goodluck Jonathan in the 2011 election, which was adjudged to be relatively free and fair.

NB: I deliberately used Southeast and not Southsouth because the Southeast is the most politically vilified

Votes N-West Gave Buhari In 2011
Jigawa - 663,994

Kaduna - 1,334,244

Kano - 1,624,543

Katsina - 1,163,919

Kebbi - 501,453

Sokoto - 540,769

Zamfara - 624,515

Total: 6,453,437

Votes Southeast Gave Jonathan In 2011
ANAMBRA
PDP/Jonathan -1,145,169

EBONYI
PDP/Jonathan - 480,592

IMO
PDP/Jonathan - 1,406, 289

ENUGU
PDP/Jonathan - 882,144

ABIA
PDP/Jonathan - 1,175,954

Total: 5,090,148

ANALYSIS

1. The Northwest with 7 states only gave Buhari 6,453,437 votes compared to 5,090,148 that just 5 states of Southeast delivered to Jonathan. Yet, power brokers up north keep pushing the narrative that just 2 states of the Northwest is enough to swallow the entire Southeast.

2. (a) In that election, a section of Kaduna state, notably Southern Kaduna, delivered 1,190,179 votes to Jonathan. That plus was almost enough to neutralise entire Northwestern votes when combined with Southeastern votes.

(b) I deliberately used Northwest vs Southeast because N-West is the zone northern power brokers usually cite to justify the need to hold power, while S-East is the zone they usually victimised.

3. It is interesting to note that the votes of the Southeast only reduced significantly since the introduction of Card Reader in 2015 and 2019. This can also be seen in votes from the Southsouth and Southwest. In contrast to this, the votes of the Northwest and Northeastern parts that are favorable to Buhari was not affected by the card reader.

4. The only explanation to 3 (above) is that the card reader was introduced to deliberately shortchange the Southeast (and entire south). This is the only justification for political power brokers in the far north to continue to hold the illogical position that Southeast electorates don't have the voting population.

5. In view of (4) above, the only way to reject any form of institutional disenfranchisement in 2023 is for the Southeast and the entire south to reject INEC's card reader like they do up north. Let everyone vote manually!

6. Should PDP zone its 2023 presidential ticket to the Southsouth or Southeast, the bloc votes recorded in 2011 in both zones will not just be replicated but improved on.

For the sake of emphasis, the Southsouth delivered 6,118,608 votes to Jonathan in that 2011 election - much more than what Buhari got in Northeast.

7. I believe that this analysis has rubbished the propaganda that the South won't deliver to PDP if given the party nomination.


Written by Tonye Barcanista Inioribo

You're absolutely right!

I was in Owerri during the 2015 elections between GEJ and Buhari and you need to see the strictness they applied here. At the end I was frustrated and couldn't vote and so were many others who would have voted GEJ. However, in the North, every human being was allowed to vote, including under age and foreigners!

It was obvious that GEJ was too timid and docile to act. He allowed Jega to tactically rig him out. The signs were already there prior to the elections but he was too scared to remove Jega. Always eager to listen and obey APC blackmails and intimidations. May we never have another weakling represent us from South and that's why we must avoid Osinbajo at all costs, dude is GEJ promax!

TonyeBarcanista: Go and ask Corp Members that served as Presiding Officers what is the use of card readers if you dont know.

Card Readers are meant to verify voters and ensure that there is no voting by proxy and over voting.

Card readers are not voting machines rather they are used to verify voters.

If the votes of GEJ in 2011 from the South was higher than that of 2015, it is clear that there was no manual stuffing of ballot boxes not PDP as usual , because the Card Reader has blocked such, and or there was voter apathy

ItsTutsi:
Lol. They are talking about 2011 when Buhari contested under CPC that had no governor, LG chairman, no single senator/rep.. he didn't even have any funds to campaign in any of the southern state

And at that period, there was a national consensus that GEJ should be supported for presidency when Obasanjo went up north to plead on his behalf as a minority that can dose the agitation in Niger Delta... that he will also contest just for one term

That's why a lot of northern elites worked against Buhari because of all these understanding, but the OP tactically left all these segment of reality out

And this is just the beginning of their propaganda
Patiently waiting for December

"May we never have another weakling represent us from South and that's why we must avoid Osinbajo at all costs, dude is GEJ promax!"

Totally agree with you. He was so afraid to use the power inherent in his office to do public good. He never realised the divine purpose in his becoming the president.

proeast:


You're absolutely right!

I was in Owerri during the 2015 elections between GEJ and Buhari and you need to see the strictness they applied here. At the end I was frustrated and couldn't vote and so were many others who would have voted GEJ. However, in the North, every human being was allowed to vote, including under age and foreigners!

It was obvious that GEJ was too timid and docile to act. He allowed Jega to tactically rig him out. The signs were already there prior to the elections but he was too scared to remove Jega. Always eager to listen and obey APC blackmails and intimidations. May we never have another weakling represent us from South and that's why we must avoid Osinbajo at all costs, dude is GEJ promax!

Kyase:
This propaganda won’t still force the north handover power to the south
This is democracy for Christ sake

Anyways south east 2023 or nothing

KYASE WHO HACKED YOUR ACCOUNT

mike404:
KYASE WHO HACKED YOUR ACCOUNT

Hack Wetin
Wetin do my comment

We are shouting its our turn in the south, because Buhari is from the North

But Down south, Osibanjo from the southwest just represented the SW in this govt, even before him there was Obasanjo from the SW, is that not 16yrs in power?

SS my zone, had GEJ as Vice and also president for 8yrs also

I and my family will personally support SE from the south or a Northern presidency