Barring any judicial summersault that could regurgitate Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan from Government House, Asaba the progression map of the political dynamics as plotted by ex-governor James Ibori remains on course and by the handy differentials, it projects power to go to the Isoko ethnic group in 2015.

Evidence of this calculus is shown in the recent appointment of Comrade Ovuzorie Macaulay as the Secretary to the Delta State Government.

It would be recalled that foreseeing the end of his second term in power, ex-governor James Ibori in his transition plan appointed Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan who was then a commissioner of Health in his first tenure as the SSG in his second tenure in preparation for the transition of power.

It was during this period that Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan learnt all the nitty- gritty of power usage, manipulation and administrative maradona that have marked him out as one of the most powerful political gladiator in Delta State – standing taller by the day in the face of mass opposition.

The power game is being replayed, this time the beneficiary being Comrade Ovuzorie Macaulay who has hitherto occupied commissionership seat in various ministries right from the days of Chief James Ibori through the Uduaghan first tenure and is now being prepared to succeed Uduaghan at the end of his second tenure in office by his recent appointment as SSG.

The philosophy behind this game bears on the axiom of the survival of the fittest as enunciated in Karl Marx’s conflict theory.

The major actors in this setting are the products of the decimation of Delta State polity into three political blocs in the twi-light of Ibori second term in office.

This exercise initiated the birth of the Urhobo Political Forum (UPF) for the Urhobo people, G-3 or 3is for the Ijaw, Isoko, Itsekiri ethnic groups and the Delta North Political Forum.

At that time Chief Ighoyota Amori, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan and Prof. B.I.C Ijoemah were arrow heads of the three groups respectively. They had the charge and mandate of their followers to protect the political interests of each political bloc and that was apparently making sure the superior group produced the successor to Ibori.

As it played out, forgetting whatever criticism trailed the Ogwashi-Uku primary of the PDP, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan emerged victor and consequently won the general election to become the successor to Chief James Ibori and unless the courts do the unpalatable, will by Caculus, handover the baton to Comrade Ovuzorie Macaulay.

The oddity of the calculus negates the power shift arrangement of the PDP which of course, has been rubbished at the national level by the emergence of President Goodluck Jonathan in the April 16, 2011 presidential election and would provoke political characters of Delta North to protest obviously to no avail.

The grouse would be that having had its fair share of two terms, power ought to shift from Delta South to Delta North in accordance with the Ibori – Uduaghan transition trend but again, the conflict theory of Karl Marx will prevail as the ultimate interest of the day would be the protection of the interest of the political family, with James Ibori as the ancestor.

Just as there was mass opposition to the emergence of Governor Uduaghan in 2007 up to 2011, so there would be pockets of opposition against the candidacy of Comrade Ovuzorie Macaulay in 2015 but in the face of all this, there will be compromise as the immediate and personal political interest of its opposition arrow heads would be settled especially by the grandeur cushioning of the incumbent and then, Macaulay would set sail.

The accolade and expression of public gratitude to the governor by the Isoko people irrespective of political affiliation over the appointment of Comrade Ovuzorie Macaulay as the SSG is a testimony of the thirst of the Isoko people for power and their readiness to reciprocate this gesture by giving all the needed support to Governor Uduaghan’s second term administration.

In the calculus, the shift of power to the Urhobo would almost be forlorn as the 3is will hold on to the power rein choosing to shift it to the next of the group to taste power, Ijaw, after the Isoko has had its full share of eight years.

In order to fulfill the amoebaeic assurance Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan gave to the people of Delta North that he would ensure a candidate from that axis succeeded him, the power may actually shift to Delta North after the Ijaw has had its full taste of it about 2027 before the Urhobo might dream of it around 2031.

The exit of President Goodluck Jonathan from power in 2015 and 2019, inclusively by popular demand, reminiscent of the chairman Mao’s mass call to power, will supplant the Ijaw to take off as the complex multicultural state of Delta will permit.

By the calculus, all things being equal, Rt. Hon. Engr. Victor Ochei who has just been elected as speaker of the Delta State House of Assembly and an offspring of the Ibori political family may bear the torch when the Ijaws have done their full eight years. Other visible torch bearers from that axis are Senator Ifeanyi Okowa and Hon Tony Nwaka who lately has become a beacon of that axis.

Another clear indication to the perfection of the calculus is the recent appointment of Chief Ighoyota Amori as the Senior Political Adviser to Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan. Known for his political wizardry, Amori, a protector of the Ibori political family will catalyze and facilitate the plot to function and when the time comes for the Urhobo to breathe the political air of freedom, would also determine who from the Urhobo axis would emerge. Convinced of this fact, the scattered sheep of the Amori political fold are already retracing their steps to the stable.

Although the demographic strength of the Urhobo ethnic nation positions them to be determinant of who occupies the governorship seat of Delta yet what analysts refer to as unpatriotic and selfish ambitions of the major key players among Urhobo politicians actually has kept the Urhobo in political wilderness.

According to a chieftain of the PDP and an Urhobo son, Urhobo like the biblical Israel is in political slavery and is yet to wander in political wilderness before it will get to the Promised Land.

The chieftain informed that the Ibori political dynasty intends to rule Delta for 32 years from 1999 and no matter what goes, an Ibori political offspring would remain as governor of the state irrespective of which ethnic group he comes from.

By the plot room is not provided for popular candidates like Chief Great Ogboru from the Urhobo ethnic group as he bears no familial relation with the Ibori political dynasty.

It is based on this political framework that the Urhobo which occupies Delta Central Senatorial District that parades 966,000 registered voters against Delta North and South put together with a record of 1,200,000 registered voters representing 45 percent of total registered voters in the state cannot decide and in fact enable their candidate in the person of Chief Great Ogboru out rightly win election and emerge as the governor of Delta State after repeated bouts because of the spoiler role that the Urhobo political actors play as political jobbers and making the Urhobo nation bereft of political leadership.

This political challenge thrown before the Urhobo people and indeed Deltans at large galvanized the citizenry to political alertness and this became evident in the political uprising that took place on January 6, 2011 when the governorship rerun election was conducted and the obvious outcome has become a matter for the election petition tribunal.

But a favourable judgment of the tribunal to Ogboru, if given, will not automatically throw out Governor Uduaghan from office because, expectedly, he will take appeal and by the provision of the Electoral Act as amended in 2010, may proceed to the Supreme Court for a final say on the matter.

In the meantime, a time bomb programmed to distort the model of the Ibori political dynasty has been set and is ticking fast.

It would be recalled that in the eve of the governorship election, Prof. Saliba Mukoro emerged as the PDP governorship candidate for Delta from the Chief E.K Clark led faction of the PDP while Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan emerged from the Barr. Peter Nwaoboshi led faction of the party.

Since the conclusion of the PDP governorship primary election Prof. Saliba Mukoro has contested the legitimacy of Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan as the rightful candidate of the party and if the PDP won the April 26, governorship election as declared by INEC, another matter for the election petition tribunal to decide, then Prof. Saliba is saying that as the valid PDP candidate he ought to become the governor of the state and in fact, he has proceeded to the High Court on the issue.

Many political pundits have cared less to glance at this silent ticking time bomb but its danger signals begin to indicate with recent political development in Delta State.

It was reported that the political marital knot that tied Uduaghan and Nwaoboshi together had been loosened allowing for third party infiltration and compromise of fundamental interest.

The schism it was learnt, originated from the choice of ministerial nominees to Mr. President, an exercise which Governor Uduaghan wa alleged to have unilaterally carried out without consulting the party leadership in the State.

This led to the first bubble burst as Barr. Peter Nwaoboshi came all out to the public to condemn the governor’s action and washed his hands clean from the ministerial nominee list.

Since this public outcry, it was learnt that the relationship between the governor and the party chairman, Barr. Nwaoboshi, has been frosty and to seal a permanent severance of the relationship. Barr. Peter Nwaoboshi lately visited and pledged his loyalty to Chief E. K. Clark, pleading for pardon for the mistakes he made while he traversed the dark path of Governor Uduaghan.

The implication! Chief E. K. Clark sponsored Prof. Saliba Mukoro governorship candidacy of the PDP in clear antagonism to Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan. Prof. Saliba and his sponsor has proceeded to the High Court for a adjudication on the matter, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan is facing a difficult January 6, governorship rerun case that may spell doom, Barr. Peter Nwaoboshi seeing the handwriting very clear defects from the Uduaghan camp and joins up with Chief E. K. Clark.

This is doom enough because Uduaghan may be removed from office and the Rivers State scenario that threw up Rotimi Amaechi as governor may replay itself in Delta with Prof. Saliba Mukoro as the beneficiary, a PDP chieftain lamented.

Not that alone, the 32 year plan of the Ibori political dynasty to hold Delta in a vice grip will be dismantled.

So what happens to January 6, governorship rerun case? That again leads to the subject of the personality configuration of Great Ogboru and Saliba Mukoro who our source say are inseparable individuals with common political denominators such that an injury to one is an injury to the other and the comradeship spirit reminiscent of their antecedents may submerge January 6, because Ogboru and Saliba are one and the same person and when that happens then power majestically goes to the Isoko ethnic group.

It was learnt that activists of the power shift arrangement have secured the nod of the central government which in a bid to be fair, is not well disposed to allowing power shift back to Urhobo land having had its full taste of eight years under Ibori.

This is the albatross of Ogboru as Uduaghan may not be allowed to monopolise the eight years chance of Delta South leaving the other two ethnic groups (Isoko, Ijaw) bare and hence the advantage falls on Prof. Saliba Mukoro.

Again our source alerted that it is not very certain that Ogboru may win the January 6, rerun case as the PDP has interest in Delta State and if Ogboru looses the case to Uduaghan, the one and only sure way of replacing Uduaghan with a more popular candidate that is acceptable to the E. K. Clark led PDP in Delta is Prof. Saliba Mukoro and the odds may be settled in court where the legitimate candidate of the party for the governorships election will be determined.

But the exodus of power from the camp of Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan to the Isoko people via Prof. Saliba Mukoro may not be a palatable spice since the Isoko people according to Dr. Idodo Umeh have decided Uduaghan is their candidate and has consequently been chosen and elected as governor of Delta State.

He would advise Prof. Saliba Mukoro to wait for his turn and stop all litigations that may rock the political boat of the state since he (Saliba) and Uduaghan cannot be the party’s candidates at the same time.

Confronted with the possibility of Ovuzorie Macaulay becoming the successor to Uduaghan by the succession to leadership precedence set by Uduaghan under Ibori, Dr. Idodo Umeh said, “if that is the line of political blessing then we thank God, we should be happy, then we are blessed.”

But grilled why the Isoko people would not be happy and feel blessed if Saliba emerges as the governor of Delta State through the instrumentality of the courts, Dr. Idodo Umeh withdraw to say, “I am not a judge, I am a scientist and a politician.”

Asked to explain the implication of the recent alliance between Chief Barr. Peter Nwaoboshi and Chief E. K. Clark, the Isoko PDP chieftain said it has nothing to do with Uduaghan adding that the meeting was a political settlement to a political disagreement.

Chief Ighoyota Amori, the senior political adviser to Governor Uduaghan could not be contacted for comment on the issue. Even SMS to his phone on the subject matter were not answered and his phone was not taken to respond to our calls as at press time.

Specifically the SMS asked Amori to respond to these questions: (1) Do you think Prof. Saliba Mukoro is still a threat to Uduaghan? (2) Do you see power going to Isoko shortly? (3) What is the implication of Nwaoboshi’s recent alliance with Papa Clark?

But to these questions there were no answers.

Contacted, Sir Eddy Akangbou in explaining the implication of Nwaoboshi’s pledge of loyalty to E. K. Clark said, “Nwaoboshi said he has realized his mistakes and has come to apologize for his misdeeds, it has nothing to do with Uduaghan but what you can deduce is that he has dumped Uduaghan for E.K.”

Volcano will erupt in Delta state if a Delta Igbo does not head the govt house at Asaba in 2015.

let the best man rule!! with all these higgledy- piggledy, delta will hardly develop.

the problem is that delta has never been governed by its best. now look at the names they are mentioning. these are the ppl that have hijacked the politics of the state. if we allowed our best hands to be in delta politics and there is massive development who will be talking about ethnic politics.

another funny aspect is that some people will be calling for the disintegration of nigeria. when there is no cohesiveness in delta state. Abegiii!!!

@op
This power shift to Isoko nor go work o, , shebi you know that Isoko is an Urhobo variant like Okpe and Uwie . If Okpe and Uwie decided to separate from Urhobo for political reason the way Isoko did and demand for their own slot , what will happen? A pure Urhobo man will understand Isoko better than Okpe and Uwie, if you doubt me I will make some sentence in Okpe and Uwie for you to see the variation. For instance Isoko call food emu, pure Urhobo call food emu, while Okpe call food emarie but yet Okpe and Uwie are called Urhobo while Isoko claim to be different.
The fact is that, if it doesn't go to delta north by 2015 it will remain in Urhobo for 12years before others can get it.

@Duality
The issue of dividing Nigeria is a consensus decision among all of us. Take the election of GEJ as example, both PDP and DPP worked for GEJ but today they are back to their internal issue. Don't let that deceive you.

This is a joke really, there are three senatorial districts in the state and 'Isoko' isnt one of them. The people of Delta North have been patiently waiting for a convenient time to make a move for the governorship and 2015 had always been the ideal time hence their support for Uduaghan whose continued mandate reinforces that goal. Any talk of an Isoko governor is premature at this stage as it's impractical according to the dynamics of the state though not entirely impossible. I guess only time will tell but obviously, there are more crap in this write up than sense.

Anioma State will soon be created and the 3i's with the big U will continue their power play.

abagoro:

Anioma State will soon be created and the 3i's with the big U will continue their power play.

you would miss the beloved Naija

why? are we divided

abagoro:

Anioma State will soon be created and the 3i's with the big U will continue their power play.

Gbam!

alj_harem:

you would miss the beloved Naija

why? are we divided

It is increasingly likely.Events are not helping matters.I'm a Zikist like Jonathan,Obj and Buhari but Nigerians hate Zikism .Tribal and religious sentiments will break us.

abagoro:

It is increasingly likely.Events are not helping matters.I'm a Zikist like Jonathan,Obj and Buhari but Nigerians hate Zikism .Tribal and religious sentiments will break us.

do you know what you are talking about. Zikism is politics and religion

I am a nigeria and support nigeria but i rather support awoism where citizens would have free education, etc

we should still fight for nigeria my brother

Alj, your Nigeria has died long ago in the minds of Nigerians. Most Nigerians don't believe in Nigeria. Personally, I don't but used to. After evaluating things critically, my conclusion was final. Foreigners even know this, that's why someone like Andrew Young said that Nigerians hate Nigeria.

I see no remedy to the bad structure of the country. SNC is the least that can help otherwise, to everyone's tent o Israel.

dem_people:

Alj, your Nigeria has died long ago in the minds of Nigerians. Most Nigerians don't believe in Nigeria. Personally, I don't but used to. After evaluating things critically, my conclusion was final. Foreigners even know this, that's why someone like Andrew Young said that Nigerians hate Nigeria.

I see no remedy to the bad structure of the country. SNC is the least that can help otherwise, to everyone's tent o Israel.

I support SNC so long as we do not need visa to go to lagos or enugu, yes that is fine

let each region control his thing but no spliting
]
that way people would respect different region policy and different groups would have faith in their government and not Nigeria government since tribalism comes to mind

but nigeria should be kept 1, that i support

and you know the reason them people

interesting