Ethno-political Permutations for 2023 & Beyond

Through & beyond all the personal & ethnic attacks on the 3 main personalities contesting for the post of President come 2023, the main determinants would not be just those presently contesting for the post, but ethnic groups who are already looking at 2023 & beyond.

To begin, it is important to situate the political calculations through the lens of the build up to the year 2015 presidential elections.

Pre-2015
Depending on the divide one is on the administration of GEJ, the average consensus, if one is to be honest, is that he performed a little below average at best within the context of what was expected of an educated southern minority. It was an opportunity to rewrite governance in Nigeria & set the bar high.

Now, BAT, as he has recently openly admitted, had nursed the ambition of becoming president (since 2006/7 at least), but his permutations, & dilemma, were that after the North (Yaradua) it would revert to the south, most likely south east. All things being equal, the north would be there till 2015, the south east till 2023 & back to the north, probably till 2031... by then, he would probably be too old to run for office.

Also, the unfortunate demise of yaradua created more challenges... if another northern was to ‘replace’ yaradua & do 8 years (who wouldn’t want to?) it would further prolong the return of power to the SW & the opportunity for BAT...

However, within this dilemma, the beginnings of an idea was also taking shape... why not let GEJ get power in 2011, then get him out in 2015 & let power go to the north. If it works, not only would the north be indebted to the SW, it could also be argued that GEJ had used the period, however short, for the SE as well as SS. A tough sell no doubt, but with the north in his debt, very possible.

Well, as recent history shows, the plan worked...

Calculations for 2023
Fast forward to present times. The SW, led by BAT, is in the driving seat. BAT has the gratitude of most of the north for his support in 2015 & 2019. He has, directly & indirectly, the sympathies of most southerners who believe power should rotate back south, especially with PDP going north & he has the core backing of majority of the SW, his home base.

The general view of the SW is that he represents a route back to power in the immediate term.

However, on a relatively less volatile, but equally important consideration is that of a running mate. If APC runs on a Muslim-Muslim ticket, it would certainly have telling effect on voters choice, even those sympathetic to power rotation back south, but to what extent remains to be seen. On the other hand, a Christian VP from the north would mean the core north would not be in the top two, or even three positions come 2023 since the SE might be placated with senate president... the north cannot allow that happen.

Then comes in PO. The problem with PO is that no matter how one views it, the contest is between APC & PDP. 90% of Nigerians who would actually vote come presidential elections in 2023, will vote along party lines & they would go for one of the 2 major political parties. The best PO would do is act as a spoiler for PDP (see ekiti 2022 gubernatorial elections as a case study). Kwankwaso would probably do same up north, but to far lesser effect.

PDP is more likely to lose more votes by virtue of PO leaving & contesting on another platform than APC is. Why? PDP is likely to lose more SE votes, while APC doesn’t really reckon with it as APC considers the SE too difficult to make significant headway, votes wise.

For Atiku, he is hoping that the tendency of the north to vote uniformly (relatively) will help in securing the key voting numbers up north to negate the mass votes to APC from the SW & some northern enclaves. He also hopes okowa will help entice the SS with the possibility of getting back into power after his tenure... & herein lies the calculations for beyond 2023...

Beyond 2023
The north is watching the disunity in the south & has at the back of its mind, the probability of a northern Christian VP. It is thinking, do we go with Atiku & retain power or honour the agreement with the SW no matter what.

If it follows the SW, it won’t get power until after 8 year, all things being equal. But retaining power won't also be a bad idea.

Now, for SE, it is thinking... PO cannot win, his mass appeal up north is not as strong as BAT's or Atiku’s.

Voting PO would be akin to voting for BAT. In that case, they, SE, would have to wait another 16 years (8 years SW, north 8 years), all things being equal, before they can get another clear shot at the coveted seat.

The other option is to go with Atiku & after probably 8 years, have a reasonable chance of occupying the seat, with the hope that the SW hasn’t produced another ‘BAT’ who can masterfully strategize & position the SW to have a strong go by then...

The Choices?
So, realistically speaking, the SE are better off voting enblock for PDP come 2023 so as to improve their own chances after Atiku’s reign. If the SE votes enblock for PO, it would lose on both sides when it comes to sharing power & they would have a hard time forming alliances in the future with the SW or north.

Or, it could go with the SW to strengthen the southern unity & wait patiently for 16 years when it would be a clear front runner for the seat, in the belief that the SW would return the favour while the north would have no qualms having just completed its tenure. This would go a long way in calming nerves & reducing the political tension.

As It Stands
The SW are in a strong position come 2023. They are the ones in the here & now.

The north has to decide if it allows the SW get to power, or plays a spoiler to retain power while placating the SE with a future opportunity in the medium term, politically speaking.

The SE has to be realistic. It cannot get power come 2023. But it can decide to take its chances with the north in the hope that after the tenure of the north, it would be in a better position for the Presidency while again battling it out with the SW, or, force the hand of the north by aligning with the SW for now, then let the north have another go, then 16 years later, virtually walk up to the presidency unopposed.

P.S:
I have refrained from attacking the personalities of the key contenders of the post or their ethnic nationalities. This write up is simply a personal analysis of some information I am privy to through research & privileged contacts. The write up is welcome to be disputed in part or its entirety, but I appeal that all personal, tribal, ethnic insults be put aside. Even the pros & cons of the personalities of the major contestants should take a backseat. This is simply a summary of the ‘assumed’ calculations for the forthcoming presidential elections & beyond.

Note: This is my own write up for NL, so no links required.

Permutate well o

If SE like, make them wait for 162 years, God knows they will never rule Nigeria. Never.
They don't have the number and sense.

You try...but politics is local...2023 is not far again...the contest is between P.D.P and A.P.C

You try

South east on their own is about to make a politcal situation that will take them 100 years back
See igbos see presidency .. suddenly igboman like national juju Dey do them started yarning gibberish call southern President .. when they know they don’t have the numbers or the politcal manipulation and numbers

They no even work for it.. just start shouting Obi up and dan..how Obi?
Is Obi now the leader of ndigbo? Or how do the internet warriors wan take make Obi President
The Obi even left the party without consulting igbos .. in the party and then wish igbos to follow him ..forgetting igbo enwe eze.. even Kanu is restricted to igbo fools and igbo almajiri..efulefus without hope on earth that believe Biafra will dash them sense ...

Igbos Must que into mainstream Nigeria politics oriy will take them another 100yeara to get sense
Obi must collapse his structure a national party..and leave his selfishness for greater good of igbos

Why scatter eastern votes to give advantage to Apc?

And the mumu igbotic humans don’t even have sense to see Ana adighi mma by uru Ndi nze .. like sense seems to automatically leave igbos ..

I tire ...

Which ever way as the make their bed .. so the lie

After all igbos as a Nigeria tribe don’t even have plans ... I mean any plan both politcally or otherwise in Nigeria
They just don’t know what they want ... reason yoruba Dey easily push them towards their Yoruba propaganda and they must follow .. and still come back to call people wey Dey influence their decision .. without igbos ever influencing anything Yoruba move or decision

Igbos should understand that medi noise don’t win election and learn how to be civil..


Power to the people
North 2023

Summary please

Op your post is flawed,and I will tell you why.

Why do you think there's been several attacks on Peter Obi from the APC and PDP controlled media?

As is stands today, none of the candidates aside Peter Obi is sure of getting block votes from any region. Atiku won't get block votes from NE or NW. Tinubu won't get block votes from SW, because historically SW don't give block votes. While Peter is sure of getting block votes from SS, SE and christians across the country. Peter Obi is your next President bro, get used to it.

#NaijaNobeLagos

Follish thread


If pep wants Igbo votes, they should have given the ticket to an Igbo preferably Obi..

Now that Obi is in lp, they should stop crying. All Igbos will waste there votes on Obi.. cry me a river

popez:
Op your post is flawed,and I will tell you why.

Why do you think there's been several attacks on Peter Obi from the APC and PDP controlled media?

As is stands today, none of the candidates aside Peter Obi is sure of getting block votes from any region. Atiku won't get block votes from NE or NW. Tinubu won't get block votes from SW, because historically SW don't give block votes. While Peter is sure of getting block votes from SS, SE and christians across the country. Peter Obi is your next President bro, get used to it.

#NaijaNobeLagos

Comrade why are u exposing our secrets ni

Leave them to hallucinate

popez:
Op your post is flawed,and I will tell you why.

Why do you think there's been several attacks on Peter Obi from the APC and PDP controlled media?

As is stands today, none of the candidates aside Peter Obi is sure of getting block votes from any region. Atiku won't get block votes from NE or NW. Tinubu won't get block votes from SW, because historically SW don't give block votes.While Peter is sure of getting block votes from SS, SE and christians across the country. Peter Obi is your next President bro, get used to it.

#NaijaNobeLagos

alaye,you are talking in the nonsense...you don’t know politics at all

A thread to malign SE, playing mind games with Ndigbo.
Igbos should pay deaf ear to these people up here, vote your brother massively, if we didn't win, we know that we have tried our best.. For 12 years NE/NW were wasting their votes on Buhari, nobody called them vote wasters, they persevered and today they are in power..

Pay no attention to them, they don't mean well for you, I'm talking APC & PDP people..

Stand with Peter Obi your blood.