Due to fear we tend to overestimate the northern vote
Take a good look at the election result between gej and buhari in 2011, and 2016 you will spot a thing from it
In 2011 election the North massively voted for buhari and lost, in 2016 the south and north voted for buhari together and this time he won

Goodluck won the 2011 election because the middle belt voted for him, where we get it wrong is calling and tagging the middle belt north central which they find insulting any candidate who can win the heart of the middle belt between the south and the North has automatically won the election, the battle ground between the South and the North has always been there, the north is even more afraid of the southern vote than we are afraid of theirs so they employ all manner's of voting
Power

I see obi wining with clear victory come 2023

Tell them

It is important for the southerns to understand that the north canot win a presidential election with out the south and verse vace.

Thebadpolitican:
Due to fear we tend to overestimate the northern vote
Take a good look at the election result between gej and buhari in 2011, and 2016 you will spot a thing from it
In 2011 election the North massively voted for buhari and lost, in 2016 the south and north voted for buhari together and this time he won

Goodluck won the 2011 election because the middle belt voted for him, where we get it wrong is calling and tagging the middle belt north central which they find insulting any candidate who can win the heart of the middle belt between the south and the North has automatically won the election, the battle ground between the South and the North has always been there, the north is even more afraid of the southern vote than we are afraid of theirs so they employ all manner's of voting
Power

I see obi wining with clear victory come 2023

It was 2015 not 2016.

And you forgot something very important. The entire SS, SE, NC and SW voted massively for Jonathan in 2011 that's why he won.

By 2015, the SW alined with the NE, and NW and even though the SS, SE and NC voted Jonathan massively again, he lost.

Jonathan won 4 geopolitical zones in 2011 and Buhari won 2. By 2015 he and Buhari won 3 each but because the north had more registered voters he lost.

There are 6 geopolitical zones in Nigeria, for now Peter Obi is only controlling just one which is the SE and this happens to be the least populated zone. The SS is divided between him and Atiku so he would most likely not catch all the SS votes.

The NC would most likely rally to him because he's a Christian and they've been persecuted by bandits, fulanis...etc.

This leaves us with the SW, NE and NW. The SW would vote for Tinubu without question, although Peter Obi would catch a reasonable number of votes from Lagos, but would loose the remaining SW states.

The NE and NW, this would be the deciding factor cos they have the highest number of registered voters. Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu would struggle for votes here.

The reality here is that if Peter Obi wants to win, he must make a deal with the SS, if he has the SE, SS and NC in his pocket, he has clearly won.

But I'm beginning to feel discouraged at his campaign strategy, the Osun election is just weeks away and he hasn't gone there to campaign for the LP candidate, he did the same thing during the Ekiti elections. We know that LP cannot win the Governorship election in Osun, but putting up a good fight would make Nigerians believe that they're ready for the presidential election next year. If he doesn't liase with other LP aspiring candidates, how does he expect to mobilize grassroot support next year?

This is what gives me worry...you can't be a one man mopol and expect to win an election.

Nazgul:

It was 2015 not 2016.

And you forgot something very important. The entire SS, SE, NC and SW voted massively for Jonathan in 2011 that's why he won.

By 2015, the SW alined with the NE, and NW and even though the SS, SE and NC voted Jonathan massively again, he lost.

Jonathan won 4 geopolitical zones in 2011 and Buhari won 2. By 2015 he and Buhari won 3 each but because the north had more registered voters he lost.

There are 6 geopolitical zones in Nigeria, for now Peter Obi is only controlling just one which is the SE and this happens to be the least populated zone. The SS is divided between him and Atiku so he would most likely not catch all the SS votes.

The NC would most likely rally to him because he's a Christian and they've been persecuted by bandits, fulanis...etc.

This leaves us with the SW, NE and NW. The SW would vote for Tinubu without question, although Peter Obi would catch a reasonable number of votes from Lagos, but would loose the remaining SW states.

The NE and NW, this would be the deciding factor cos they have the highest number of registered voters. Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu would struggle for votes here.

The reality here is that if Peter Obi wants to win, he must make a deal with the SS, if he has the SE, SS and NC in his pocket, he has clearly won.

But I'm beginning to feel discouraged at his campaign strategy, the Osun election is just weeks away and he hasn't gone there to campaign for the LP candidate, he did the same thing during the Ekiti elections. We know that LP cannot win the Governorship election in Osun, but putting up a good fight would make Nigerians believe that they're ready for the presidential election next year. If he doesn't liase with other LP aspiring candidates, how does he expect to mobilize grassroot support next year?

This is what gives me worry...you can't be a one man mopol and expect to win an election.

Oga don't say what you don't know.. How will you say that north central (middle belt) voted massively for Jonathan?


Check the statistics/results again... Howmany middle belt states did jonathan won in 2015?

Don't forget that Niger state, kwara, Kogi, Benue are among the middle belt you said they massively voted for Jonathan.

Jonathan only won Plateau and nasarawa while buhari won the rest.... Don't just come here and be dropping rubbish analysis.

The only regions jonathan won in 2015 is South east and south south.

Middle belt is the key for both Northern/Southern Candidates.

Bendeco02:


Oga don't say what you don't know.. How will you say that north central (middle belt) voted massively for Jonathan?


Check the statistics/results again... Howmany middle belt states did jonathan won in 2015?

Don't forget that Niger state, kwara, Kogi, Benue, adamawa are among the middle belt you said they massively vote for Jonathan.

Jonathan only won Plateau, nasarawa and taraba while buhari won the rest.... Don't just come here and be dropping rubbish analysis.

The only regions jonathan won in 2015 is South east and south south.

Middle belt is the key for both Northern/Southern Candidates.

I meant the Christian section of the NC, the Muslim section of the NC would always align to a fellow Muslim.

Nazgul:

I meant the Christian section of the NC, the Muslim section of the NC would always align to a fellow Muslim.

Read your second paragraph, you included north central as one of the region that massively voted for Jonathan.

Why including them when majority of their vote goes for buhari?

Just say south east and south south voted massively for Jonathan and don't include North Central.

Bendeco02:


Oga don't say what you don't know.. How will you say that north central (middle belt) voted massively for Jonathan?


Check the statistics/results again... Howmany middle belt states did jonathan won in 2015?

Don't forget that Niger state, kwara, Kogi, Benue, adamawa are among the middle belt you said they massively vote for Jonathan.

Jonathan only won Plateau, nasarawa and taraba while buhari won the rest.... Don't just come here and be dropping rubbish analysis.

The only regions jonathan won in 2015 is South east and south south.

Middle belt is the key for both Northern/Southern Candidates.

adamawa and taraba ain’t no middle belt

Nazgul:

It was 2015 not 2016.

And you forgot something very important. The entire SS, SE, NC and SW voted massively for Jonathan in 2011 that's why he won.

By 2015, the SW alined with the NE, and NW and even though the SS, SE and NC voted Jonathan massively again, he lost.

Jonathan won 4 geopolitical zones in 2011 and Buhari won 2. By 2015 he and Buhari won 3 each but because the north had more registered voters he lost.

There are 6 geopolitical zones in Nigeria, for now Peter Obi is only controlling just one which is the SE and this happens to be the least populated zone. The SS is divided between him and Atiku so he would most likely not catch all the SS votes.

The NC would most likely rally to him because he's a Christian and they've been persecuted by bandits, fulanis...etc.

This leaves us with the SW, NE and NW. The SW would vote for Tinubu without question, although Peter Obi would catch a reasonable number of votes from Lagos, but would loose the remaining SW states.

The NE and NW, this would be the deciding factor cos they have the highest number of registered voters. Atiku, Kwankwaso and Tinubu would struggle for votes here.

The reality here is that if Peter Obi wants to win, he must make a deal with the SS, if he has the SE, SS and NC in his pocket, he has clearly won.

But I'm beginning to feel discouraged at his campaign strategy, the Osun election is just weeks away and he hasn't gone there to campaign for the LP candidate, he did the same thing during the Ekiti elections. We know that LP cannot win the Governorship election in Osun, but putting up a good fight would make Nigerians believe that they're ready for the presidential election next year. If he doesn't liase with other LP aspiring candidates, how does he expect to mobilize grassroot support next year?

This is what gives me worry...you can't be a one man mopol and expect to win an election.

Who won the NC in 2015?

Buhari or GEJ??

I will comment on the OP later.

I also believe and i have been saying it here that the upper North votes is not as crucial as people make it seem. There are 3 factors that favour them, two of which would likely not be operational in the next elections

nugamania:
adamawa and taraba ain’t no middle belt

Yeah, that's true

Remove those states, buhari still won major votes in north central.

Bendeco02:


Oga don't say what you don't know.. How will you say that north central (middle belt) voted massively for Jonathan?


Check the statistics/results again... Howmany middle belt states did jonathan won in 2015?

Don't forget that Niger state, kwara, Kogi, Benue, adamawa are among the middle belt you said they massively vote for Jonathan.

Jonathan only won Plateau, nasarawa and taraba while buhari won the rest.... Don't just come here and be dropping rubbish analysis.

The only regions jonathan won in 2015 is South east and south south.

Middle belt is the key for both Northern/Southern Candidates.

Ok...you have even corrected him.

Buhari actually won the NC in 2015

Factos...
Obi is winning with a landslide