Here is why Tinubu will lose the 2023 election.

No president has ever won the presidency without winning his region. Now there is a different between a zone and a region.

Nigeria has two region :

Northern region
Southern region.

It has 6 geo-political zones.

Tinubu will win the SW his geo-political zone but he'll lose the southern region because there is no way SS and SE will back a Muslim Muslim ticket.

Buhari in 2015 had the entire northern region but he still needed the SW support to win the presidency.

The emergence of Atiku and kwankwaso means that the northern vote will be split.. Tinubu not having the full support of the southern region will cost him the presidency.. Those Tinubu supporters hoping to see northern governors working against Atiku are living in dream land.. The Northerners will never settle for vice when they can have the presidency for 8 more years.


Unless Tinubu finds a way to penetrate the SS or SE. He's heading for defeat.

I used to be skeptical about Northern support loyalty to tinubu until recently.
Those northern support who were with Buhari are very much with tinubu coupled with the fact that the can religious cards is also psychologically bringing people together in the North towards asiwaju.

jumper524:
I used to be skeptical about Northern support loyalty to tinubu until recently.
Those northern support who were with Buhari are very much with tinubu coupled with the fact that the can religious cards is also psychologically bringing people together in the North towards asiwaju.

So the whole North will vote for Tinubu even when Atiku Abubakar their son is on ballot and if Kwankwaso doesn't step down, you also believe the whole North will vote Tinubu leaving Atiku and Kwankwaso because Tinubu picked a Northern VP? Lolz



If Kwankwaso doesn't step down before the election day, what will happen is this:


Kwankwaso will win Kano, Tinubu will come second, Atiku 3rd, Obi 4th.

At the end, Tinubu will win NW with very insignificant votes, Atiku will come second, Kwankwaso 3rd, Obi 4th.


Atiku will win NE with very small margin, Tinubu will come second, Kwankwaso will come 3rd, Obi 4th.


Obi will win Northcentral, Atiku will come second, Tinubu 3rd, Kwankwaso 4th.



Obi will win Southeast with very large margin, Atiku will come 2nd, Tinubu 3rd, Kwankwaso 4th.


Obi will sin Southsouth, Atiku will come 2nd, Tinubu will come 3rd, Kwankwaso 4th.


Tinubu will win Southwest, Obi will come second, Atiku 3rd, Sowore 3rd, Kwankwaso 4th.


Now do the maths and know the likely winner if it doesn't enter runoff

jumper524:
I used to be skeptical about Northern support loyalty to tinubu until recently.
Those northern support who were with Buhari are very much with tinubu coupled with the fact that the can religious cards is also psychologically bringing people together in the North towards asiwaju.

You're a poor political analyst. Those Northern Muslims that supported Buhari would never support Bat. If anything, they would even go against him. You think they're not aware that Buhari wanted Lawan while Bat used some Northern governors to force himself on Buhari. Bat even insulted Buhari on national TV!

Northern muslim masses will definitely split their vote between Atiku and Kwankwaso while Bat gets just marginal votes. Even Obi will get votes from educated Northern Muslims too.

The handwriting is clear on the wall that Bat will lose woefully. Election rigging that would have come handy as option b is no longer available.

jumper524:
I used to be skeptical about Northern support loyalty to tinubu until recently.
Those northern support who were with Buhari are very much with tinubu coupled with the fact that the can religious cards is also psychologically bringing people together in the North towards asiwaju.

And the North will refuse to vote their Atiku because of a Tinubu?

Dreaming is free, you can enjoy it before APC induced inflation affects the price

Vote4ObiDatti:


You're a poor political analyst. Those Northern Muslims that supported Buhari would never support Bat. If anything, they would even go against him. You think they're not aware that Buhari wanted Lawan while Bat used some Northern governors to force himself on Buhari. Bat even insulted Buhari on national TV!

Northern muslim masses will definitely split their vote between Atiku and Kwankwaso while Bat gets just marginal votes. Even Obi will get votes from educated Northern Muslims too.

The handwriting is clear on the wall that Bat will lose woefully. Election rigging that would have come handy as option b is no longer available.

funny you, you lack knowledge on underground politics.
3 months before now, your political analysis might be partly true but bro things happens a and changes. I've done the survey and I can tell you the northwest is going to Tinubu no caps. If you can make neutral enquiry you'll know northerners are not politically foolish. They know kwakwaso ain't winning and they ain't wasting their votes, yes he's still highly respected but a tinubu ticket is the shortest cut for Kwankwaso to be next president of Nigeria. Even in kano he's not having a campaign movement, Atiku has far gone to the dogs cos last time I checked, he's still rejected in adamawa.
Try make your survey and test the hausa man by saying tinubu or Atiku then you'll understand.
Infact there's also a low key movement amongst the extremist born to rule northerners that Tinubu might die after two years in office then a fellow northernern would follow next.
Tinubu did his homework right in the North and just like Buhari, he's getting the North and southwest.
Atiku and Obi can split the rest.

successmatters:


And the North will refuse to vote their Atiku because of a Tinubu?

Dreaming is free, you can enjoy it before APC induced inflation affects the price

I'm sure you said more than this during the primaries. Bagudu a northern gov stepped down for jagaban ahead of your self acclaimed Buhari Lawan. Someone Buhari denied after the wrong announcement. Northern governors backed the jagaban also.
E go clear for your eye.

jumper524:
I used to be skeptical about Northern support loyalty to tinubu until recently.
Those northern support who were with Buhari are very much with tinubu coupled with the fact that the can religious cards is also psychologically bringing people together in the North towards asiwaju.

Lol because Kwankwaso and Atiku are Jews

jumper524:
I'm sure you said more than this during the primaries. Bagudu a northern gov stepped down for jagaban ahead of your self acclaimed Buhari Lawan. Someone Buhari denied after the wrong announcement. Northern governors backed the jagaban also.
E go clear for your eye.

Wetin concern almajiris with party primaries

successmatters:


And the North will refuse to vote their Atiku because of a Tinubu?

Dreaming is free, you can enjoy it before APC induced inflation affects the price

Honestly anytime I read such stupid analysis that Tinubu a Yoruba man will win the NW or even Atiku's NE I just shake my head.To think that there are even projecting Tinubu to win the NE,a region that has not tasted the presidency since 1966 over their own son is unfathomable.

The best LP and APC can only hope in this two regions is to reduce the margin of victory of PDP here and as well secure the needed 25%

Every election has its dynamics its been said previously that NC is always the decider in every election but NW will be the decider in 2023, if BAT gets 35% in the NW he is winning, anything shot of that he will come a distant 3rd.
That will be decided by kwankwaso if he decides to play the betrayal card and support tinubu weeks before the election.
For Now
Obi has SS and SE-currently no candidate can boast of any two regions aside obi, but pundits believe that the votes of these regions are not a enough, time will tell.
BAT has SW but will not win overwhelmingly, he votes will be diluted by massive population of non-indegens and a number of yoruba Christians.
NC, will be split heavily, tinubu will get 35% of kwara but will loose out in the zone.
Atiku will win in NE but not with a wide margin.
NW will decide.
The election will be too close to call
Meanwhile my one single vote goes to Obi

David160:
Here is why Tinubu will lose the 2023 election.

No president has ever won the presidency without winning his region. Now there is a different between a zone and a region.

Nigeria has two region :

Northern region
Southern region.

It has 6 geo-political zones.

Tinubu will win the SW his geo-political zone but he'll lose the southern region because there is no way SS and SE will back a Muslim Muslim ticket.

Buhari in 2015 had the entire northern region but he still needed the SW support to win the presidency.

The emergence of Atiku and kwankwaso means that the northern vote will be split.. Tinubu not having the full support of the southern region will cost him the presidency.. Those Tinubu supporters hoping to see northern governors working against Atiku are living in dream land.. The Northerners will never settle for vice when they can have the presidency for 8 more years.


Unless Tinubu finds a way to penetrate the SS or SE. He's heading for defeat.

when calling SW pls be specific about the states cuz as it stands rn it's only Lagos he has in his pocket in the SW

I pity Nigerian researchers, everything about Nigerian research finding is guesswork. They're too lame to even enter the states to sample opinions instead of relying on the rule of the thumb and dangerous speculations. I find it hard to believe Northerner with the suffering they're going through will even vote as usual. From my little study majority of moslems are rooting for Atiku while christians say Obi. Tinubu is not known to an average northerner. Only the northern elite use Tinubu as their piggy bank but do night campaigns for Atiku. The few who volunteered to talk about Tinubu said his ticket will bring trouble to Nigeria.

David160:
Here is why Tinubu will lose the 2023 election.

No president has ever won the presidency without winning his region. Now there is a different between a zone and a region.

Nigeria has two region :

Northern region
Southern region.

It has 6 geo-political zones.

Tinubu will win the SW his geo-political zone but he'll lose the southern region because there is no way SS and SE will back a Muslim Muslim ticket.

Buhari in 2015 had the entire northern region but he still needed the SW support to win the presidency.

The emergence of Atiku and kwankwaso means that the northern vote will be split.. Tinubu not having the full support of the southern region will cost him the presidency.. Those Tinubu supporters hoping to see northern governors working against Atiku are living in dream land.. The Northerners will never settle for vice when they can have the presidency for 8 more years.


Unless Tinubu finds a way to penetrate the SS or SE. He's heading for defeat.

That's true.

Let the desperate thief keep deluding himself with the boorish thinking that @ss-licking Buhari and the north and inflaming religious interest/sentiment in northerners will make him president. He can't possibly perform better in the north than Buhari did during his previous 3 unsuccessful shots at the presidency.

braveboi4life:
Every election has its dynamics its been said previously that NC is always the decider in every election but NW will be the decider in 2023, if BAT gets 35% in the NW he is winning, anything shot of that he will come a distant 3rd.
That will be decided by kwankwaso if he decides to play the betrayal card and support tinubu weeks before the election.
For Now
Obi has SS and SE-currently no candidate can boast of any two regions aside obi, but pundits believe that the votes of these regions are not a enough, time will tell.
BAT has SW but will not win overwhelmingly, he votes will be diluted by massive population of non-indegens and a number of yoruba Christians.
NC, will be split heavily, tinubu will get 35% of kwara but will loose out in the zone.
Atiku will win in NE but not with a wide margin.
NW will decide.
The election will be too close to call
Meanwhile my one single vote goes to Obi

Is funny how u pple shout yoruba Christians upandan. How do you know. Even in the SS and SE. Tinubu will get up to 20% in states dia, nobi Christians go vote am. Wen it comes to party politics and grassroot support nobody cares about religion. Most APC politicians in d SE/SS knowing dia survival in 2023 depends on Dia party winning will make sure he gets small votes from loyalists. Now check if each of dem candidates in every elective position get 20 persons to vote APC. How many votes do u think he will get, put also d loyalists and diehards who don't care about religion. I'm 100% sure that APC will get 25% in Imo, Abia and Ebonyi.

Zikojukwu:
I pity Nigerian researchers, everything about Nigerian research finding is guesswork. They're too lame to even enter the states to sample opinions instead of relying on the rule of the thumb and dangerous speculations. I find it hard to believe Northerner with the suffering they're going through will even vote as usual. From my little study majority of moslems are rooting for Atiku while christians say Obi. Tinubu is not known to an average northerner. Only the northern elite use Tinubu as their piggy bank but do night campaigns for Atiku. The few who volunteered to talk about Tinubu said his ticket will bring trouble to Nigeria.

Those ones weh dey give 20% and 25% in SS/SE. Dem be muslims?.

Everyone should get ready to see APC fake police on the election day