After 2023,, All these political calculations that pay so much attention to the Northerners (especially the Northern Muslims) would drastically change.

True words...your analysis are correct if not for south west buhari won't have win

He's totally not right.
The North hold an Ace to win any election in Nigeria because of the following reasons
1. They have more number of voters than the south
2. The North is united unlike the south, hardly you will hear north west, north central or north east. You will only hear it went they are distribute our national resources
3. The south is not united, South west will never want to support, The Igbo, while will the south south support the South East
4. It will be very easy for the north who is united to get the presidential candidate, and give either the south west, south east or south south vice presidential slot.
5. The southerner doesn't vote like the Northerner.

Oghene1st:
I always tell people that if the South is United, the core North will be a slave to the South forever. If you check the voting pattern, Plateau and Taraba always lean towards Southern Candidates. Also likely is Benue, Kogi and Kwara because these ones don't consider themselves Northerners.

Once the South is United for a candidate, the above mentioned northern states will tilt towards Southern Candidate come 2023.

But since the South is divided, the South East and South South (Christian dominated parts in the South) have upper hand in wooing Christian dominated Northern state of Taraba, Plateau and Benue for Obi by religious campaign while Kogi and Kwara will definitely go for Tinubu. Then, Obi, Tinubu and Atiku can share the votes in core North. Obi should use Christian base campaign in the core North so that Christian voters in Adamawa, Nasarawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Yobe, Kaduna, etc can vote Obi while Tinubu uses Muslim/Muslim ticket to steal those Muslims in Muslim dominated states in North like Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Niger, etc.

The truth is, I am one of those southerners that don't see the north as threat to us. History is there. We are talking about civilian admin, not military. Buhari couldn't have won without South West in 2015 and 2019.

South should start seeing themselves as kingmakers in this country, because we are.

As it stands, Atiku is the 3rd force.

How can Atiku Who is already the main opposition, come down to be the Third Force??

On point

mrvitalis:

Lol that's with manual accreditation that they manipulate ...check Northern votes 80% are manual accreditation ..while south is less than 20% ...now no more manual accreditation ...so don't expect miracle vote from the north

PLS GO AND LEARN THE MEANING AND FORMULER FOR SIMPLE MAJORITY

Starcrest1:
This analysis is on point. But let me add something, You could see how northerners voted Buhari always even though he changes party like water, parties without structure. This is for the structure people.

Secondly this time around, three people that will share the northern votes are Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso, so I wonder how they will be banking on the bulk votes there. Obi is winning this unless two people steps down from the three I mentioned above.

If you look at it very well, you will noticed that Atiku stronghold is South South and Southeast which Peter Obi is the leading aspirant in the zone. To me if Atiku and Obi did not come together it is a straight win for Tinubu. Talk about religious factor almost all the zone that Buhari clear in previous election are dominated by Muslims meaning they can still retain some support base. If it continues like that PDP and Obi might share what PDP used to get in that Zone.

Starcrest1:
This analysis is on point. But let me add something, You could see how northerners voted Buhari always even though he changes party like water, parties without structure. This is for the structure people.

Secondly this time around, three people that will share the northern votes are Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso, so I wonder how they will be banking on the bulk votes there. Obi is winning this unless two people steps down from the three I mentioned above.

The only way Obi can beat kwakwaso to 3rd position is if the Christians decide to give him bulk of their votes may not take him beyond 3rd though

Starcrest1:
This analysis is on point. But let me add something, You could see how northerners voted Buhari always even though he changes party like water, parties without structure. This is for the structure people.

Secondly this time around, three people that will share the northern votes are Tinubu, Atiku and Kwankwaso, so I wonder how they will be banking on the bulk votes there. Obi is winning this unless two people steps down from the three I mentioned above.

If 3 people are sharing Northern votes does it mean only Obi owns Southern vote?

Oghene1st:
I always tell people that if the South is United, the core North will be a slave to the South forever. If you check the voting pattern, Plateau and Taraba always lean towards Southern Candidates. Also likely is Benue, Kogi and Kwara because these ones don't consider themselves Northerners.

Once the South is United for a candidate, the above mentioned northern states will tilt towards Southern Candidate come 2023.

But since the South is divided, the South East and South South (Christian dominated parts in the South) have upper hand in wooing Christian dominated Northern state of Taraba, Plateau and Benue for Obi by religious campaign while Kogi and Kwara will definitely go for Tinubu. Then, Obi, Tinubu and Atiku can share the votes in core North. Obi should use Christian base campaign in the core North so that Christian voters in Adamawa, Nasarawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Yobe, Kaduna, etc can vote Obi while Tinubu uses Muslim/Muslim ticket to steal those Muslims in Muslim dominated states in North like Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Niger, etc.

The truth is, I am one of those southerners that don't see the north as threat to us. History is there. We are talking about civilian admin, not military. Buhari couldn't have won without South West in 2015 and 2019.

South should start seeing themselves as kingmakers in this country, because we are.

As it stands, Atiku is the 3rd force.

You are not correct. North Carries the bulk of votes in Nigeria and would need only one region in the south to win. If Atiku for instance, wins NE and NW, he will need only SS or SE to win.

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

You must be high on akamu.

You forget to tell them that Lagos State is almost 60% of the votes in the entire South West.

I'm in Lagos.
Come and convince me to vote for Tinubu.

You are still saying the same Nonsense he wants to correct .

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

You don't know what u are saying

APCnaPDP:


You are not correct. North Carries the bulk of votes in Nigeria and would need only one region in the south to win. If Atiku for instance, wins NE and NW, he will need only SS or SE to win.

yes, that is true.

And that is the same for the South too.

If the entire south vote for a single candidate, he would only need to win a single northern region to win.

Buhari always won the NW with a landslide and yet he never became president.

Winning the NW and NE does not guarantee presidency.

And also, the reason why the north is United is because the South is not United.

The south is the economic powerhouse.
A United south will quickly get the middle belt falling in line.

Everybody likes to join the progressive team.

SpatialKing:
You are right

oga the op is using elections conducted during obasanjo as yardstick.
That one na election dem dey do then?
Look at the clear picture from inec server. You'll see states with the highest number of registered voters. The op even had the guts to call northerners riffraffs.
Ba wahala.

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]
You are intelligent. please let's become friends in real life. Please.
It's a myth that the north are significantly more than us. Even that term north is mischievous. There are actually many diverse tribes in those region, probably more than we have in the south here. What have been making the difference and making it look like they decide who becomes president is that they take electioneering activities like a religious duty. They stand up and show up at elections. I hypothesise that more than 90% of people that can vote show up, while just about 40% show up here in the south.
From some indices now, I am having strong grounds to think that Christians might even be in the majority in this country.
Further more, the 20+ million number of voters in the northwest also comprises significant people of igbo ethnicity. Igbos that live outside of southeast are more really than igbos that live in the southeast
Southerners, people of central Nigeria and Christian's generally should become really aware politically and get responsible politically. We should start taking elections as what it is really, a matter of prestige and survival.
It still pains me really, when I at this age, speak with some fellow southerners and I hear them say they are not so much interested in politics that what matters to them is their business. I say to them though that politics is more importantly than business, power more important than money. It's when u have peace and security that u can engage in business.

A president that wins the entire south and wins the North Central will win the election.

Even if the opposition wins the NW and NE together.

4 will always win against 2, no matter the combination.

CSTRR:

yes, that is true.

And that is the same for the South too.

If the entire south vote for a single candidate, he would only need to win a single northern region to win.

Buhari always won the NW with a landslide and yet he never became president.

Winning the NW and NE does not guarantee presidency.

And also, the reason why the north is United is because the South is not United.

The south is the economic powerhouse.
A United south will quickly get the middle belt falling in line.

Everybody likes to join the progressive team.

electoral results during obasanjo no be election.
Check the stats of newly registered voters, the North ain't playing.

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

So you mean to say that they whole Northern States will give a candidate 24 States needed to win…no one will win either all they northern states and loss all the Southern States will win in an Election…you need 2/3 of the 36 States to win in an election

There's massive rigging and underage voting in the north while in the south you have voters apathy. You will be surprised by the number of votes south will produce in the coming elections. North only has more land mass not population

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

I read your comment with an open mind until I got to your last paragraph.

That the votes Atiku got from the entire South East were just about tantamount to what Kano state produced, hitherto making the SE region inconsequential, going by your submission.

I am from Cross River state but let me relay a certain advise an elder from Plateau state once gave to me: Should you travel to anywhere within the four cardinal points of Nigeria and don't find an Igbo man within a 100 yards of your residential abode owning a small kiosk or doing a roadside business, pack up your bags and leave that location immediately.

What some of you fail to understand is that the voting strength of the South East is widely spread across the lengths and breadth of the entire country. Igbos are sojourners. So what you consider to be the voting strength of the South West is quite honestly an influx of other tribes, mostly the Igbos. If the Igbos were to conglomerate in their region during elections as is the case during festive celebrations, I promise you, this nonsense you put up there about the South West being the voting strength of the entire Southern region would make you appear unintelligible.

It's largely nauseating the way some of you Nigerians always tend to undermine the relevance of another tribe just to sound politically correct.

jumper524:
electoral results during obasanjo no be election.
Check the stats of newly registered voters, the North ain't playing.

Go and check the votes Jonathan got in the South in 2011.

That is the true test of the south.

Apathy is the problem. People don't care to use their PVC in the south.

And recently, the PVC rush is in the south more, according to INEC.

So the south will vote a lot this time.

Prepare to be surprised.

leksite120:
Your calculation is one-sided.
The same way North need just a region in South to win is the same way southern votes cannot secure a win without at least two regions from the North.

See it like this, if someone has the whole South votes and another person has the whole north votes, the northern person would win. Infact if someone has the whole South without having NW and NE support, he'll still not win.

Forget south, SW is the only vote power in south. The whole votes SE gave Atiku which is like 90% vote in the last election is just something a state like Kano can cover for one party, so imagine that.

If you understand the demography of the country, u will realise that Kano isn't made up of only hausas as the country is now.
The term north is misleading, we have northwest which is different from northeast. And we have north central.

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]
Nice analysis..but you forgot some few points.
1. Middle belt is going to favour Asiwaju..Kwara and Kogi are already in the kitty...Nasarawa and Niger are also most likely I can only give Benue and Plateau state to both Atiku and Obi. Benue most likely will go to PDP because of Ortom's influence.
2. Even if Buhari has not performed well in security; his core followers will still preffer him to an Atiku. Infact A dead Buhari has a political value in the North.
3. Atiku is a fulani..core Hausa's might opt for Asiwaju since he is a Muslim.
4. Like it or not, the south West will ensure a massive vote for their own (Regardless of what happened in Osun) people will vote for candidates majorly and not party.
5. Tinubu's V.P candidate is a strong man in the north and will attract many votes for Asiwaju in that space (Especially North east).
6. Truth be told, a Muslim Norther will surely find it difficult to vote for an Ibo christian because of tolerance issues. They prefer a Yoruba Christian..Yorubas are liberal and far more accommodating.

Having said all that; Obi's movement is strong and ravaging. A lot of damages could be done to both APC and PDP if they play the right politics and move away from using the Churches as a political tool. Using the churches will further reinforce the fact that Obi is playing religious card and that his government may not favour muslims. We still have some few liberals in the north tho who do not care about religion. A good political strategy could win the election for Peter Obi; But I think Asiwaju is in the lead right now.

What is all this nonsense, jaundiced analysis.... useless demographics that have produced leaders of misfortune from elections that have had no positive impact on the nation in 23 years, just elections for elections sake, musical chairs with the same sordid characters dancing around from party to party.

We better wake up and start putting people there who can solve problems and bring ithis country out of the rut it is stuck in or there will be no one to vote in the future.

[quote author=Omicron007 post=115258506][/quote]
I think you did not make a verifiable research.
As at 2019 Atiku won Buhari in the Northern States landslide but the results was later rigged. Atiku was unable to win the election because of the change as regarding the CJN office and that is what APC has done again by allocating the CJN to the South West.

Mind you come rain come shine am for PETER OBI no matter the result

CSTRR:

yes, that is true.

And that is the same for the South too.

If the entire south vote for a single candidate, he would only need to win a single northern region to win.

Buhari always won the NW with a landslide and yet he never became president.

Winning the NW and NE does not guarantee presidency.

And also, the reason why the north is United is because the South is not United.

The south is the economic powerhouse.
A United south will quickly get the middle belt falling in line.

Everybody likes to join the progressive team.

If any candidate wins NE and NW, such candidate is very close to becoming president. As it stands, from what I have heard and read, Obi and Atiku will share SE/SS votes and Tinubu will win SW and will do well in NE and NW. Atiku will win NE and NW.

APCnaPDP:


If any candidate wins NE and NW, such candidate is very close to becoming president. As it stands, from what I have heard and read, Obi and Atiku will share SE/SS votes and Tinubu will win SW and will do well in NE and NW. Atiku will win NE and NW.

Go and tell that to Buhari that won all the k' states and NE and still lost three times.

4 will win against 2 anyday.

Buddha3:


I read your comment with an open mind until I got to your last paragraph.

That the votes Atiku got from the entire South East were just about tantamount to what Kano state produced, hitherto making the SE region inconsequential, going by your submission.

I am from Cross River state but let me relay a certain advise an elder from Plateau state once gave to me: Should you travel to anywhere within the four cardinal points of Nigeria and don't find an Igbo man within a 100 yards of your residential abode owning a small kiosk or doing a roadside business, pack up your bags and leave that location immediately.

What some of you fail to understand is that the voting strength of the South East is widely spread across the lengths and breadth of the entire country. Igbos are sojourners. So what you consider to be the voting strength of the South West is quite honestly an influx of other tribes, mostly the Igbos. If the Igbos were to conglomerate in their region during elections as is the case during festive celebrations, I promise you, this nonsense you put up there about the South West being the voting strength of the entire Southern region would make you appear unintelligible.

It's largely nauseating the way some of you Nigerians always tend to undermine the relevance of another tribe just to sound politically correct.

Don't Abuse any one. We shall put to test all political opinions by 2023.

Omicron, the whole north need one region of the south to win election while the south need two region with block vote to win. Put ur analysis straight and stop confusing people