Let's take away Kwankwaso , i think i see him more like a spoiler or maybe with time he will definitely drop for one of the candidate. Atiku or tinubu maybe.

On Atiku's chances
i think it has been greatly reduced by the infighting in PDP. Especially as it involves the southern bigwig politicians. And also we all know south-east and south-south are naturally PDP voters during the presidential elections. But this time with the OBI emergence and influence in that angle. It will take a miracle for Atiku to win the election because he cant do that with only the Northern blocks which is not even sure for him.. Especially the North-west, and some North-east too. We all remember he lost to Pres. Buhari even at his polling unit in the last election.

On Peter Obi's chances
i think he is a force to reckon with too. But i dont see him getting there yet, maybe many years to come but not now. He lacks the political structure and connections. Nigeria politics have gone past or let me say his bigger than the social media buzz and attention he is pulling right now.
Quite sure, south-south and south-east including some part of North-central will turn out for him maybe massively..

But the thing is to win an election you must have 25% in atleast 25 states, which i dont see Peter obi having especially when you are substracting states from North-east and North-west which i will coldly and brutally say Peter obi is still relatively unknown and unheard of.

And also to win election you need majority of the votes, south-east and south-south are traditionally low voters due to the popoulation and non-challant altitude of the voters. A votes from bornu, yobe, Lagos, kano, kastina only can cancel the entire vote from the two region(i stand to be corrected though). So i think even though he manages to scale some state, he will definitely not be having the majority vote on his side due to the block votes from the Northern region. Except something m*d happens where we have the Northern votes pieces, shared and scathered among kwankwaso, tinubu and atiku. With each having just a small fraction of the votes.
This will surely favours peter alot.

But also Peter comes from a region that has been politically marginalised and sidelined for too long, it might affect his chances, because the region are not influential on a national poltical stage. And with the aggresssive behaviour of some of his supporters especially those from the eastern sides due to unexperience(i think) when dealing with political matters, they might disgust and scare the undecided voters away from Peter obi. Not just the undecided voters, but also other voters who they might have just try winning gently and by preaching to them of their ideology.


Lastly on Tinubu's chances
I think Tinubu is the luckiest politician presently, reason why you see him not acting desperate or not appearing for interviews and been in the media much like that. Man as been planning all his life for this moment, over the years he has made friends, allies ,build a political dynasty with several wings and lot of politically successful 'boys' in virtually every nooks and crannies of the country. They are the ones now returning the favour, mobilising for him except ofcourse the likes of osinbajo and others aggrieved one way or the other. But i think they will surely fall inline.

i think with states like shettima bornu, Yobe, Elrufai kaduna, Buhari Kastina, and also Lagos with over 7million+ votes in the bags for him already...even taken out the lagos igbos voters, he is sure of getting atleast 4million votes in Lagos from the 7m+(debatable tho).
And also, if we are to include the Buharis factor, if things play out according to plan, you might notice he made buhari the chairman of his campaign council, the buhari block votes is his target with that moves.

Also southwest, even irrespective of the uproar in muslim-muslim ticket, southwest dont discriminate or marginalise that much. It is omoluabi first before anything... Reason why taking out oyetola of osun out of the context, there is no muslim south-west governor presently. The osun muslim voted him out too, they rate competency above any other thing in the south-west. So hopefully for tinubu, he might count on that facts too. But if it doesnt work, then Tinubu is in hot soup, because with the north preently not sure for anyone and can swing anyway, tinubu need south-west vote than anything. So he needs to get there and convince the voters especially christians about his inclusive plan he have for them.

South-south and south-east, tinubu will fight for his life here, well all he needs is just 25% here. He shouldnt expect much not even in the APC controp state. I think those states are for OBI not even Atiku except we see some OKowa's factors and maybe PDP resolves their issue with the southern-governors, then we can start having a situation of a vote-sharing between obi and atiku in that region too.

The only thing in Tinubu way to presidency is the muslim-muslim thing, but only applied to the North-central where we have lot of serious christians who dont joke with religion. The plus for him is the infighting in PDP, and the fact that obi and Atiku will be sharing lot of PDP traditional votes.

Chizzyjforce:
Stop disecting what you don't know.

mbaboy:
The election is between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar

lhordspy:
Dissecting the three leading presidential candidates and chances of being victorious in the next year general election



I was in a thread yesterday and we were discussing about the chances of the three top presidential candidates winning next year general election.

I will just copy my opinion here so we can deliberate on it.

Please concrete analysis and opinions only. No tribalistic comments or insults are allowed. Thank you.





Let's take away Kwankwaso , i think i see him more like a spoiler or maybe with time he will definitely drop for one of the candidate. Atiku or tinubu maybe.

On Atiku's chances
i think it has been greatly reduced by the infighting in PDP. Especially as it involves the southern bigwig politicians. And also we all know south-east and south-south are naturally PDP voters during the presidential elections. But this time with the OBI emergence and influence in that angle. It will take a miracle for Atiku to win the election because he cant do that with only the Northern blocks which is not even sure for him.. Especially the North-west, and some North-east too. We all remember he lost to Pres. Buhari even at his polling unit in the last election.

On Peter Obi's chances
i think he is a force to reckon with too. But i dont see him getting there yet, maybe many years to come but not now. He lacks the political structure and connections. Nigeria politics have gone past or let me say his bigger than the social media buzz and attention he is pulling right now.
Quite sure, south-south and south-east including some part of North-central will turn out for him maybe massively..

But the thing is to win an election you must have 25% in atleast 25 states, which i dont see Peter obi having especially when you are substracting states from North-east and North-west which i will coldly and brutally say Peter obi is still relatively unknown and unheard of.

And also to win election you need majority of the votes, south-east and south-south are traditionally low voters due to the popoulation and non-challant altitude of the voters. A votes from bornu, yobe, Lagos, kano, kastina only can cancel the entire vote from the two region(i stand to be corrected though). So i think even though he manages to scale some state, he will definitely not be having the majority vote on his side due to the block votes from the Northern region. Except something m*d happens where we have the Northern votes pieces, shared and scathered among kwankwaso, tinubu and atiku. With each having just a small fraction of the votes.
This will surely favours peter alot.

But also Peter comes from a region that has been politically marginalised and sidelined for too long, it might affect his chances, because the region are not influential on a national poltical stage. And with the aggresssive behaviour of some of his supporters especially those from the eastern sides due to unexperience(i think) when dealing with political matters, they might disgust and scare the undecided voters away from Peter obi. Not just the undecided voters, but also other voters who they might have just try winning gently and by preaching to them of their ideology.


Lastly on Tinubu's chances
I think Tinubu is the luckiest politician presently, reason why you see him not acting desperate or not appearing for interviews and been in the media much like that. Man as been planning all his life for this moment, over the years he has made friends, allies ,build a political dynasty with several wings and lot of politically successful 'boys' in virtually every nooks and crannies of the country. They are the ones now returning the favour, mobilising for him except ofcourse the likes of osinbajo and others aggrieved one way or the other. But i think they will surely fall inline.

i think with states like shettima bornu, Yobe, Elrufai kaduna, Buhari Kastina, and also Lagos with over 7million+ votes in the bags for him already...even taken out the lagos igbos voters, he is sure of getting atleast 4million votes in Lagos from the 7m+(debatable tho).
And also, if we are to include the Buharis factor, if things play out according to plan, you might notice he made buhari the chairman of his campaign council, the buhari block votes is his target with that moves.

Also southwest, even irrespective of the uproar in muslim-muslim ticket, southwest dont discriminate or marginalise that much. It is omoluabi first before anything... Reason why taking out oyetola of osun out of the context, there is no muslim south-west governor presently. The osun muslim voted him out too, they rate competency above any other thing in the south-west. So hopefully for tinubu, he might count on that facts too. But if it doesnt work, then Tinubu is in hot soup, because with the north preently not sure for anyone and can swing anyway, tinubu need south-west vote than anything. So he needs to get there and convince the voters especially christians about his inclusive plan he have for them.

South-south and south-east, tinubu will fight for his life here, well all he needs is just 25% here. He shouldnt expect much not even in the APC controp state. I think those states are for OBI not even Atiku except we see some OKowa's factors and maybe PDP resolves their issue with the southern-governors, then we can start having a situation of a vote-sharing between obi and atiku in that region too.

The only thing in Tinubu way to presidency is the muslim-muslim thing, but only applied to the North-central where we have lot of serious christians who dont joke with religion. The plus for him is the infighting in PDP, and the fact that obi and Atiku will be sharing lot of PDP traditional votes.



cc Mynd44 cc. Seun. cc. Nlfpmod
cc. N3tral cc. TCtrills

kcnwaigbo:
How can Tinubu be luckiest with only the SW as stronghold? Stop smoking weed

trutharena:
In spite of all the propaganda against Tinubu, he is a very focused and determined leader, and every day he thinks about how to make Nigeria great again.