Penguin2:


You must be dreaming to think Atiku will get more votes than Peter Obi in the Southwest.

You are obviously not in the Southwest.

pdp still get structure in the 36 state of Nigeria,
You saw the proof in osun,
I concluded from that osun election that obi can not get 5% in South West

Ruggedniggaone:
Everything is pointing towards Atiku victory,only atiku can win at least 2 zones comfortably and still get very reasonable votes from every states across the country,Atiku will win north west and north east and do very well in other region

Check 2011 elections results.
Buhari overwhelmingly won the north but Jonathan overwhelmingly won the elections

Validated:
As it is today, ObiDatti will ger 25% in the following states on your list:
Nasarawa - 70% christians gives Obi an advantage to pick 25%
Ondo- 90% christians gives Obi an advantage
Ekiti - 75% Christians gives Obi an advantage
Kaduna - Muslim-muslim ticket will kill APC, Southern KAD will give Obi 25%, with Atiku pulling over 50%
Oyo - Too close to call. If PDP reconciles, Obi may not hit 25% but if PDP5 supports LP as beung speculated, Obi may swing it.

Like someone said, election is still 4 months away. Around April this year, nobody in Nigeria was looking at LP, even SDP was more popular. The candidates to beat were those of APC and PDP. The contest was between Tinubu and Atiku. Now, Obi has become a frontliner.

But, op, also tell us where Tinubu or Atiku would get their 24 states. For Atiku, he coukd do that in NE and NW and also NC, but Tinubu is only sure of 25% in SW (6 states plus kwara and Kogi), making 8 states. In NW, he could get 25% in Katsina, Kano, Sokoto and Jigawa. In NE, Yobe and Bornu. That is 14 states.

As for Ariku, he may get upto 24 states, but might not get majority votes. Hence my conclusion is that as of today, there might be a rerun between Peter Obi and Atiku. That would hand the presidency to Atiku.
Tinubu and APC are out already. Only diehard followers and tribalist support APC, no sensible Nigerian does that. Money cannot save APC and Buhari has gone aloof as far as 2023 is concerned. His cult following is useless to APC now.

atiku and obi are competing for 60% of total vote, to be share between them, tinubu already have at least 40% of total vote
Tinubu will get 25% in more than 30 state. - seven from northwest, six from north east, six from north centre. six from south west and at least four state from south south.

buhariguy:
pdp still get structure in the 36 state of Nigeria,
You saw the proof in osun,
I concluded from that osun election that obi can not get 5% in South West

They voted based on personality not party.
If adeleke decamped to another party they will vote for that party.
SDP had no party structure in Ekiti state but they still voted segun oni.
Nigerians no longer vote based on party anymore. That era has passed. If APC which was formed in 2014 who had no structure in Nigeria win elections, who is now telling you that LP can't win the elections.
And mind you oyetola had a stronger structure than PDP and yet he was beaten!
In summary; things has changed, Nigerians don't vote based on party politics anymore. You could take that to the bank!

Validated:
As it is today, ObiDatti will ger 25% in the following states on your list:
Nasarawa - 70% christians gives Obi an advantage to pick 25%
Ondo- 90% christians gives Obi an advantage
Ekiti - 75% Christians gives Obi an advantage
Kaduna - Muslim-muslim ticket will kill APC, Southern KAD will give Obi 25%, with Atiku pulling over 50%
Oyo - Too close to call. If PDP reconciles, Obi may not hit 25% but if PDP5 supports LP as beung speculated, Obi may swing it.

Like someone said, election is still 4 months away. Around April this year, nobody in Nigeria was looking at LP, even SDP was more popular. The candidates to beat were those of APC and PDP. The contest was between Tinubu and Atiku. Now, Obi has become a frontliner.

But, op, also tell us where Tinubu or Atiku would get their 24 states. For Atiku, he coukd do that in NE and NW and also NC, but Tinubu is only sure of 25% in SW (6 states plus kwara and Kogi), making 8 states. In NW, he could get 25% in Katsina, Kano, Sokoto and Jigawa. In NE, Yobe and Bornu. That is 14 states.

As for Ariku, he may get upto 24 states, but might not get majority votes. Hence my conclusion is that as of today, there might be a rerun between Peter Obi and Atiku. That would hand the presidency to Atiku.
Tinubu and APC are out already. Only diehard followers and tribalist support APC, no sensible Nigerian does that. Money cannot save APC and Buhari has gone aloof as far as 2023 is concerned. His cult following is useless to APC now.

Mikano boys

There wont be any rerun. There is no State bar Anambra, Enugu, AkwaIbom and maybe Abia State, That APC wont get the required 25%.

Everything points to Tinubu Win. However, you can continue to console yourself..

JoeNL22:

They voted based on personality not party.
If adeleke decamped to another party they will vote for that party.
SDP had no party structure in Ekiti state but they still voted segun oni.
Nigerians no longer vote based on party anymore. That era has passed. If APC which was formed in 2014 who had no structure in Nigeria win elections, who is now telling you that LP can't win the elections.
And mind you oyetola had a stronger structure than PDP and yet he was beaten!
In summary; things has changed, Nigerians don't vote based on party politics anymore. You could take that to the bank!

and lasun got 2000 vote in osun,
Structure still work, if aregbesola join force with oyetola, that 30000 vote difference would have be cover by aregbesola supporters.
Oyetola would have won by 10000-20000 vote.
Although the issue of adeleke over voting is still there.

JoeNL22:

Check 2011 elections results.
Buhari overwhelmingly won the north but Jonathan overwhelmingly won the elections

buhari and cpc were not strong in the south unlike Atiku and pdp though obi will affect Atiku chance in the south South and south east but atiku will stil get very reasonable votes don't be Suprised if Atiku win some state in the south South expecially if wike and his group agree to work for him. Atiku and pdp are not only strong in the North they are also strong in every region including southwest

Ruggedniggaone:
buhari and cpc were not strong in the south unlike Atiku and pdp though obi will affect Atiku chance in the south South and south east but atiku will stil get very reasonable votes don't be Suprised if Atiku win some state in the south South expecially if wike and his group agree to work for him. Atiku and pdp are not only strong in the North they are also strong in every region including southwest

Which southerner will want to vote another Northerner after buhari's abysmal 8 years?
Atiku is wasting his time. Shishi....baba no go see for this election. At most 10% total from the (SW, SE & SS combined)

buhariguy:
and lasun got 2000 vote in osun,
Structure still work, if aregbesola join force with oyetola, that 30000 vote difference would have be cover by aregbesola supporters.
Oyetola would have won by 10000-20000 vote.
Although the issue of adeleke over voting is still there.

I did not mention lasun....am talking about why adeleke won and why segun oni was voted. Structure doesn't work again. If any politician still believes in structure is deceiving him or herself.

JoeNL22:

Which southerner will want to vote another Northerner after buhari's abysmal 8 years?
Atiku is wasting his time. Shishi....baba no go see for this election. At most 10% total from the (SW, SE & SS combined)

do you honestly believe what you wrote?can you stake on what you wrote?Atiku will win next year election because he will do well in his region and perform well and in other zones what you believe is your opinion though and I believe you are entitled to it but it doesn't change the fact that Atiku will do very well in every zones and win next year election

Ruggedniggaone:
do you honestly believe what you wrote?can you stake on what you wrote?Atiku will win next year election because he will do well in his region and perform well and in other zones what you believe is your opinion though and I believe you are entitled to it but it doesn't change the fact that Atiku will do very well in every zones and win next year election

You believe Atiku can perform well in other regions but you don't believe obi can perform well in other regions also.
Who are you deceiving.......the votes that PDP are meant to get in the south.....obi has collected it, the votes that Atiku is meant to get in the middle belt(Christians) obi has collected it. Now tell me....how does he want to win the elections without the votes of the south?. The only difference between Atiku and Tinubu is, Atiku will get bloc votes but for Tinubu there is no zone that Tinubu can get bloc votes from. Even his own region is not 99% sure....now talkless of the north which no southern has won the core north convincingly. Even 2011 elections of Jonathan. Jonathan could not still win the core north. From your assertions you think Atiku will win because PDP is strong in other regions. In 2015, PDP was even stronger. If pdp could not win when they had more states under their belt at that time in which they had a southerner candidate(Jonathan). They can't win now, even with less and to make matters worse! A northern! After Buhari's abysmal performance?....they will still vote Atiku?.....it's not possible. Things have changed. Get used to it. We saw it Osun. We saw it Ekiti and we have seen it in 2023.

JoeNL22:

I did not mention lasun....am talking about why adeleke won and why segun oni was voted. Structure doesn't work again. If any politician still believes in structure is deceiving him or herself.

segun oni has structure, adeleke has structure but lasun don't have structure.
Let me also remind you that Abe of sdp in river state has structure. Abe can also perform in river state like segun oni did in ekiti.

buhariguy:
It has be comfirm obi can't get 25% vote from 20 states .
Obi should stop wasting his time and resources.
Obi cannot get 25% of vote from states as follows.
1 sokoto
2. Kebbi
3.jigawa
4.kastina
5.kano
6.osun
7.ekiti
8. Oyo
9. Ogun
10. Kwara
11. Kogi
12. Adamawa
13.bauchi
14. Gombe
15. Zamfara
16. Yobe.
17.borno.
18. Ondo
19. Nasarawa
20. Niger
It is constitutional to get 25% in 24 states before any candidates can be declared as president of the federal republic of Nigeria.
Obi can not cross this hurdle.
I sympathise with obidient people, just take heart.
You guys have tried your best for obi.
But so sorry to announce to you guys that obi is going nowhere.
Remember to vote wisely for tinubu.
God bless obidient.

None of the 4 major contestants can get 25% of votes in 24 states right now

The constitution states that there will be a supplementary election between the top candidate and the runner up. This supplementary election may be between Atiku and Peter Obi. They are the 2 top candidates so far

JoeNL22:


You believe Atiku can perform well in other regions but you don't believe obi can perform well in other regions also.
Who are you deceiving.......the votes that PDP are meant to get in the south.....obi has collected it, the votes that Atiku is meant to get in the middle belt(Christians) obi has collected it. Now tell me....how does he want to win the elections without the votes of the south?. The only difference between Atiku and Tinubu is, Atiku will get bloc votes but for Tinubu there is no zone that Tinubu can get bloc votes from. Even his own region is not 99% sure....now talkless of the north which no southern has won the core north convincingly. Even 2011 elections of Jonathan. Jonathan could not still win the core north. From your assertions you think Atiku will win because PDP is strong in other regions. In 2015, PDP was even stronger. If pdp could not win when they had more states under their belt at that time in which they had a southerner candidate(Jonathan). They can't win now, even with less and to make matters worse! A northern! After Buhari's abysmal performance?....they will still vote Atiku?.....it's not possible. Things have changed. Get used to it. We saw it Osun. We saw it Ekiti and we have seen it in 2023.

you can't compare atiku and buhari bloc vote in the north.
Buhari was able to defeat Jonathan because of buhari bloc vote from the north and tinubu south west vote. And the breakaway governors of pdp.
This time, no apc governor are defeating to pdp or labour.
And pdp vote has already be divided between atiku, obi and kwakanso, is an easy ride for tinubu, apc already have north west and south west. 50/50 in North East and North central.
Landslide victory for tinubu

socialmediaman:


None of the 4 major contestants can get 25% of votes in 24 states right now

The constitution states that there will be a supplementary election between the top candidate and the runner up. This supplementary election may be between Atiku and Peter Obi. They are the 2 top candidates so far

how can a vote share between 2 candidates against a ruling party and the 2 candidates will still be 2 top candidates to win.
The election is a landslide victory for the ruling party because the opposition is divided into 3 candidates.
Instead of the opposition party to win each state by 60% of vote and ruling party supposed get 40% from each state.
the 60% will now be shared among 3 candidates.
So the 3 candidates can not boast of 25% each from 24 state. While the ruling party will get 40% from each state apart from south east.

agadez007:
I love how urc.hins keep increasing obi chances of wining on monthly basis
At first,they said he cant win a ward
then they said he would win only Anambra

Let’s keep our fingers crossed maybe Before the elections they will increase it to 17 states

Now they have given obi the whole south east ...in 3 months ...let's see if they would add south South by December

That's if he recovers from his sickness and campaign without falling sick again.

bender79:
Tinubu will perform teribly in the SS and SE and compete narrowly for votes in the north so tell me how he can even survive this election because I don't see him getting land slide votes anywhere including his south west

CilicMarin:


Mikano boys

There wont be any rerun. There is no State bar Anambra, Enugu, AkwaIbom and maybe Abia State, That APC wont get the required 25%.

Everything points to Tinubu Win. However, you can continue to console yourself..

When I asked my grandma wether he is going to vote for tinubu the response she gave was that tinubu is sick, Even toddler are aware of that, who wants a sick president?

[quote author=Abdu81 post=117309928]

When I asked my grandma wether he is going to vote for tinubu the response she gave was that tinubu is sick, Even toddler are aware of that, who wants a sick president?[/quoteo] is your grandma sick.
Is she strong?
Will she die very soon?
Has any youth ever die in your family or village?

buhariguy:
tell me the possibility of obi getting 25% from the above state

In Adamawa, we the Igbos has a very good voting population plus other non-northerners residents there.. Also, many of the Christian indigenes are rooting for Obi. Believe me Obi will get 25% in Adamawa.. He will get good votes in the following LGAs (Numan, Lamude, Hong, Gombi, Ganye, Demsa, Michika, Madagali, Mubi South, Mubi north, Yola north..)

Same thing will happen in Ondo, Ekiti, Kogi, Gombe.

buhariguy:
It has be comfirm obi can't get 25% vote from 20 states .
Obi should stop wasting his time and resources.
Obi cannot get 25% of vote from states as follows.
1 sokoto
2. Kebbi
3.jigawa
4.kastina
5.kano
6.osun
7.ekiti
8. Oyo
9. Ogun
10. Kwara
11. Kogi
12. Adamawa
13.bauchi
14. Gombe
15. Zamfara
16. Yobe.
17.borno.
18. Ondo
19. Nasarawa
20. Niger
It is constitutional to get 25% in 24 states before any candidates can be declared as president of the federal republic of Nigeria.
Obi can not cross this hurdle.
I sympathise with obidient people, just take heart.
You guys have tried your best for obi.
But so sorry to announce to you guys that obi is going nowhere.
Remember to vote wisely for tinubu.
God bless obidient.

Senseless analysis from Tinubu urchins.
Now let me educate you properly. Obi has 11 states of SE and SS on lockdown. Add Lagos, Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Oyo, Kaduna, Ondo, Ekiti, Nassarawa, Osun, Ogun, Adamawa and Kogi where he is sure of getting 25% and he scales through 2/3 hurdle.

Since Buhari stated he is passionate about ensuring free and fair election next year, most of you agbado urchins have been running mad.

Lol, the message has been passed that Tinubu is very suck, old and corrupt which makes him grossly unfit to rule and Nigerians have gotten it. Anyways, continue deceiving yourself, your eyes will open when your tinubu comes a distant 5th behind Obi, Atiku, Kwankwaso and Sowore in that order

ImmaculateJOE:

In Adamawa, we the Igbos has a very good voting population plus other non-northerners residents there.. Also, many of the Christian indigenes are rooting for Obi. Believe me Obi will get 25% in Adamawa.. He will get good votes in the following LGAs (Numan, Lamude, Hong, Gombi, Ganye, Demsa, Michika, Madagali, Mubi South, Mubi north, Yola north..)

Same thing will happen in Ondo, Ekiti, Kogi, Gombe.

is not possible for obi to get what he and atiku get in 2019, their vote will be share

Vote4Obi:



Senseless analysis from Tinubu urchins.
Now let me educate you properly. Obi has 11 states of SE and SS on lockdown. Add Lagos, Benue, Plateau, Taraba, Oyo, Kaduna, Ondo, Ekiti, Nassarawa, Osun, Ogun, Adamawa and Kogi where he is sure of getting 25% and he scales through 2/3 hurdle.

Since Buhari stated he is passionate about ensuring free and fair election next year, most of you agbado urchins have been running mad.

Lol, the message has been passed that Tinubu is very suck, old and corrupt which makes him grossly unfit to rule and Nigerians have gotten it. Anyways, continue deceiving yourself, your eyes will open when your tinubu comes a distant 5th behind Obi, Atiku, Kwankwaso and Sowore in that order

you're just encouraging yourself

Agbado pikin spotted. If you no dey benefit from bad government you suppose don get small senśe except something dey wrong.

buhariguy:
It has be comfirm obi can't get 25% vote from 20 states .
Obi should stop wasting his time and resources.
Obi cannot get 25% of vote from states as follows.
1 sokoto
2. Kebbi
3.jigawa
4.kastina
5.kano
6.osun
7.ekiti
8. Oyo
9. Ogun
10. Kwara
11. Kogi
12. Adamawa
13.bauchi
14. Gombe
15. Zamfara
16. Yobe.
17.borno.
18. Ondo
19. Nasarawa
20. Niger
It is constitutional to get 25% in 24 states before any candidates can be declared as president of the federal republic of Nigeria.
Obi can not cross this hurdle.
I sympathise with obidient people, just take heart.
You guys have tried your best for obi.
But so sorry to announce to you guys that obi is going nowhere.
Remember to vote wisely for tinubu.
God bless obidient.

Abdu81:
Peter Obi will beat tinubu in those states.

Please Nigerians don't be deceived this how the packaged a sick BUHARI in 2015 to destroy Nigeria

You actually believe what you wrote?

buhariguy:
tinubu will get more than 25% in South south.
Tinubu will get 25% in more than 30 state.
Atiku maybe lucky to get the 25% in 24 state

that's what you should be worried about, not obi. How is tinubu going to get 25 percent. Worry about that.