lhordspy:
93.5m registered voters.
We should be expecting 50m voters turn-out.


PDP - 15.5m votes
SDP - 500k votes
APC - 24m votes
LP - 5.5m votes
NNPP - 3m votes
Others - 1.5m votes

Note: Figures are subjected to changes as kwankwaso is surely stepping down for Tinubu.

Majority votes:
APC - Ekiti, Osun,kwara, Nasarawa, Kogi, Gombe,Ondo,Yobe, Jigawa, kaduna, lagos, Ogun, kastina,Bornu, Kebbi, zamfara, Oyo, Rivers

PDP - Enugu, Ebonyi, Niger, Adamawa, Bauchi, Edo, Imo, Taraba, Akwa ibom, delta, bayelsa, sokoto

LP - FCT, Abia, Anambra, benue, Plateau, cross river

NNPP - Kano

Funny you...

Niger and Cross River are APC sure win

lhordspy:
93.5m registered voters.
We should be expecting 50m voters turn-out.


PDP - 15.5m votes
SDP - 500k votes
APC - 24m votes
LP - 5.5m votes
NNPP - 3m votes
Others - 1.5m votes

Note: Figures are subjected to changes as kwankwaso is surely stepping down for Tinubu.

Majority votes:
APC - Ekiti, Osun,kwara, Nasarawa, Kogi, Gombe,Ondo,Yobe, Jigawa, kaduna, lagos, Ogun, kastina,Bornu, Kebbi, zamfara, Oyo, Rivers

PDP - Enugu, Ebonyi, Niger, Adamawa, Bauchi, Edo, Imo, Taraba, Akwa ibom, delta, bayelsa, sokoto

LP - FCT, Abia, Anambra, benue, Plateau, cross river

NNPP - Kano

ValCon888:
Tinubu going for a Muslim-Muslim ticket that can destabilise the country shows that he's ready to sell his mother to be President.

Atiku coming out for election even when he knows a Northerner is currently on seat shows he's power hungry and has nothing to offer.

Let's say No to desperate old men.

Please Vote Obi for President.

I have gone to the east, to the west, to the south and to the east.

And I have come to one conclusion that my only hope now is to be OBIdient.

lhordspy:
93.5m registered voters.
We should be expecting 50m voters turn-out.


PDP - 15.5m votes
SDP - 500k votes
APC - 24m votes
LP - 5.5m votes
NNPP - 3m votes
Others - 1.5m votes

Note: Figures are subjected to changes as kwankwaso is surely stepping down for Tinubu.

Majority votes:
APC - Ekiti, Osun,kwara, Nasarawa, Kogi, Gombe,Ondo,Yobe, Jigawa, kaduna, lagos, Ogun, kastina,Bornu, Kebbi, zamfara, Oyo, Rivers

PDP - Enugu, Ebonyi, Niger, Adamawa, Bauchi, Edo, Imo, Taraba, Akwa ibom, delta, bayelsa, sokoto

LP - FCT, Abia, Anambra, benue, Plateau, cross river

NNPP - Kano

.This is so hilarious. For your information, PO will win both SS/SE ask people who are leaving there.Edo, Rivers, Akwaibom, Cross-river, Bayelsa are OBIdients. He will also win Delta State. Even Ifeanyi Okowa will lose his LG to Peter Obi.

What are you thinking? Over a candidate who has no plan for Nigeria.

I wish their is a better candidate in this election not Peter Obi. A man who clearly and shamelessly told Nigerians that there is nothing wrong with our constitution. To be honest, anyone who stand against a new constitution or support this present constitution is not for the people but coming as usual to please the elites.

Emotions will not let us go wrong way.

There is no way you can fix this country by not working to change this constitution.

In 2023, we don't want to president who is coming to manage the situations. We want someone who is coming to tackle the problem from foundations.

Meanwhile, I see many of you celebrating the new electoral law. Now let me ask us, if Buhari led APC government is so bad how come you all have the hope and trust that he will conduct a free and fair election that will bring in president from a minority tribe?

If APC government is that bad and many believe could prove very hard to defeat them, how come a party without any sitting governor, no structure is seeing to be the easiest means to unseat them ?

My single reason for not supporting Peter Obi is that I don't trust APC to let go power easily. And I don't trust Obi candidacy is structured enough to kick them out.

It will take more than a historic rigging plans by Labor Party to win this election.

As for PDP who I see as truly possess the right structure to unseat APC, they are shaking due to internal problems but as they "Out of problems come settlement" I see the entire Wike Atiku issue as game that was carefully orchestrated to arouse sympathy from the millions of northern voters to declare rival supports for their son.

You guys should be careful not to labour in vain sha..

I will unveil more truths in my next post. Until then check your PVC and keep it well.

It will take more than a calculated war of votes and gang ups with PVC to take away this menace called All Progressive Cancers in the body of Nigeria.

PlayMaker14:
6. In terms of demographic distribution, 7.2 million new voters or 76.5% are young people between 18-34 years while there is a slightly higher number of female (4.8 million or 50.82%) than male (4.6 million or 49.18%) voters. In terms of occupation, 3.8 million (40.8%) are students.












Dear Obidients, are you guys thinking what I am thinking right now?


I don't want to start celebrating early oh, But.....

Babyboyforeal:
Muslims will never support Christian Christian tickets they will even call it haram and stage a protest over the country

. Accepted, can you tell me what Christian body get from Osinbajo as a VP?

WantsandMore:

out of 200million population , only 93.5 million cleared for election , this screams political apathy, who has data on the distribution of the 93.5million voters across the 6 geopolitical zones? I want to check sth.

How is 93.5m of 200m political apathy? Out of the 200m some are under 18 years, some are in diaspora, some are ineligible due to their occupation/position, some were disqualified due to multiple voting etc. 93.5m is a good figure.

If Atiku does not win(though he has 88% chances) I'd rather tinubu wins.

You see that pretender and liar pandora giringori obi, hell will freeze over before that pandemic will be the president of Nigeria..Dear Igbos, if you want to rule bring us a better person not this crook in disguise.

Inec weldone you have weed out those that called Nigeria then burnt their pvc but when an Esn commander is contesting they rush to re_ register.
You have weed out those children of hate and perdition that registered inside catholic churches in Lagos , anambra and imo.
If you are one of them those bother to go to polling unit at all because of you are caught straight to underground cell no room terrorist

I know the lazy ones will not read this to the end.

socialmediaman:
Out of the 93 million eligible voters, 56 million people will vote, and the candidates will get the following:

Peter Obi - 19.5 million (mostly from PDP, APC, First Time voters)
Atiku Abubakar - 16.5 million (Traditional PDP, some APC, vote buying)
Tinubu - 15.5 million (Mostly core APC, a few PDP, vote buying)
Kwankwaso - 3.5 million (Mostly from NW)
Others - 1 million (Sowore and the rest who 'also ran' for presidency)
------------------------------------------
Total 56 million
-------------------------------------------

Its actually 64 million
If inec does anyhow before then, 48 million!

Okkkk

PlayMaker14:
6. In terms of demographic distribution, 7.2 million new voters or 76.5% are young people between 18-34 years while there is a slightly higher number of female (4.8 million or 50.82%) than male (4.6 million or 49.18%) voters. In terms of occupation, 3.8 million (40.8%) are students.












Dear Obidients, are you guys thinking what I am thinking right now?


I don't want to start celebrating early oh, But.....

Better don't celebrate yet.

This APC FG have an ace up their sleeve.

ASUU strike is over just laidat and almost all those students will be on campus during election.

Unless they registered on or close to campus or they can manage to run to their polling zones in time for the election, almost all those guys will be disenfranchised.

It's up to ASUU and the university administrations nationwide to close schools 2 weeks before the elections so students can be home to effectively decapitate APC-PDP for good.

socialmediaman:
Out of the 93 million eligible voters, 56 million people will vote, and the candidates will get the following:

Peter Obi - 19.5 million (mostly from PDP, APC, First Time voters)
Atiku Abubakar - 16.5 million (Traditional PDP, some APC, vote buying)
Tinubu - 15.5 million (Mostly core APC, a few PDP, vote buying)
Kwankwaso - 3.5 million (Mostly from NW)
Others - 1 million (Sowore and the rest who 'also ran' for presidency)
------------------------------------------
Total 56 million
-------------------------------------------

The over 100 likes must be bots.

Shey 40m Don vote for Nigeria before? Usually around 30m plus always.

Now you even give obi 19.5m voters?
Buhari self with his crazy followers of around 9m no win, how much obi with less than a million illiterates.

The best he will get is 2m votes that's even say some of you for Asian jails vote o be that

Lazyreporta:


The over 100 likes must be bots.

Shey 40m Don vote for Nigeria before? Usually around 30m plus always.

Now you even give obi 19.5m voters?
Buhari self with his crazy followers of around 9m no win, how much obi with less than a million illiterates.

The best he will get is 2m votes that's even say some of you for Asian jails vote o be that

Shey 154 million don vote for America before 2020 election?

There will be a record voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election. It will be massive, you have take prevailing events into account. Usually there's an average 40% voter turnout in previous elections, but I'm estimating 60% this time

socialmediaman:


Shey 154 million don vote for America before 2020 election?

There will be a record voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election. It will be massive, you have take prevailing events into account. Usually there's an average 40% voter turnout in previous elections, but I'm estimating 60% this time

My comments is even more on his sharing.. Even though the voters won't still exceed 40m max that's being generous..

By his maths, he's giving obi the entire 12m new voters and still take from apc and PDP,.. As far as we know for now, based on records, we have apc and PDP voters of 30m plus, however, maybe we can have an additional 3m voters added cos of the new registration..

I can stake a bet on this, obi cannot get 5m votes.. Actually, he can't get 3m

Lazyreporta:


My comments is even more on his sharing.. Even though the voters won't still exceed 40m max that's being generous..

By his maths, he's giving obi the entire 12m new voters and still take from apc and PDP,.. As far as we know for now, based on records, we have apc and PDP voters of 30m plus, however, maybe we can have an additional 3m voters added cos of the new registration..

I can stake a bet on this, obi cannot get 5m votes.. Actually, he can't get 3m

I think the record number of new voters in many states are mostly Peter Obi supporters who live all over the country but have never voted.

Take Lagos for example, APC said in 2013 that lagos population was 45% Igbos. These voters may be 80% PDP and 20% APC, and that's probably why APC has never won Lagos presidential election by more than 60% of the votes. Right now, these voters may be like 80% LP. Also take into account that most of them don't normally vote, and some of them register but never voted before, but this time around, most of them will be voting.

https://www.nairaland.com/1379688/lagos-safe-igbos-joe-igbokwe

lhordspy:
93.5m registered voters.
We should be expecting 50m voters turn-out.


PDP - 15.5m votes
SDP - 500k votes
APC - 24m votes
LP - 5.5m votes
NNPP - 3m votes
Others - 1.5m votes

Note: Figures are subjected to changes as kwankwaso is surely stepping down for Tinubu.

Majority votes:
APC - Ekiti, Osun,kwara, Nasarawa, Kogi, Gombe,Ondo,Yobe, Jigawa, kaduna, lagos, Ogun, kastina,Bornu, Kebbi, zamfara, Oyo, Rivers

PDP - Enugu, Ebonyi, Niger, Adamawa, Bauchi, Edo, Imo, Taraba, Akwa ibom, delta, bayelsa, sokoto

LP - FCT, Abia, Anambra, benue, Plateau, cross river

NNPP - Kano

PDP - 14m votes
SDP - 500k votes
APC - 8.5m votes
LP - 22.5m votes
NNPP - 3m votes
Others - 1.5m votes

Note: kwankwaso will surely NOT step down for Tinubu.

Majority votes:
APC - Ekiti, Osun,kwara, Kogi, Gombe,Ondo,Yobe, kaduna, Ogun, kastina,Bornu, Oyo,

PDP - Niger, Adamawa, Bauchi, delta, bayelsa, sokoto, Kebbi, zamfara, Jigawa

LP - FCT, Abia, Anambra, benue, Plateau, cross river, Akwa ibom, Enugu, Ebonyi, Edo, Imo, Taraba, lagos, Rivers, Nasarawa

NNPP - Kano

socialmediaman:


I think the record number of new voters in many states are mostly Peter Obi supporters who live all over the country but have never voted.

Take Lagos for example, APC said in 2013 that lagos population was 45% Igbos. These voters may be 80% PDP and 20% APC, and that's probably why APC has never won Lagos presidential election by more than 60% of the votes. Right now, these voters may be like 80% LP. Also take into account that most of them don't normally vote, and some of them register but never voted before, but this time around, most of them will be voting.

https://www.nairaland.com/1379688/lagos-safe-igbos-joe-igbokwe

If Igbos are 45% clearly, Igbos are more than Yorubas in Lagos then.. Cos there are SS people, there are northerners and moreso, there are other Africans and the rest of the world.. Infact, yorubas will obviously be like 30% max in Lagos.. So you believe that stats right? That Igbos are the largest tribe in a western state? I am sure, if at all they said 45% it's capturing other SS states as Igbos too, that's is the only logical thing.

However, if Igbos are 45% just Igbos o, then apc/acn suppose Don loss Lagos since na. Remember Igbos are always voting for PDP plus some Yorubas... Logically, PDP suppose dey win Lagos..

Whatever man you believe.. Igbos and SS combo can't not be more than the Yoruba in Lagos Sha..

Lazyreporta:



If Igbos are 45% clearly, Igbos are more than Yorubas in Lagos then.. Cos there are SS people, there are northerners and moreso, there are other Africans and the rest of the world.. Infact, yorubas will obviously be like 30% max in Lagos.. So you believe that stats right? That Igbos are the largest tribe in a western state? I am sure, if at all they said 45% it's capturing other SS states as Igbos too, that's is the only logical thing.

However, of Igbos are 45% just Igbos o, then apc/acn suppose Don loss Lagos since na. Remember Igbos are always voting for PDP plus some Yorubas... Logically, PDP suppose dey win Lagos..

Whatever man, you believe

It wasn't my stats now lol! By the way Igbos vote PDP mostly at the federal level from my observation. The state elections usually depend on the candidates presented by the parties. Look closely at the State governorship election of Lagos in 2019 and you'll see that PDP won only 21% of the votes at the state election but won 46% of the votes at the presidential election.

That also explains why Ojukwu's APGA could not win any state in the SE at the presidential elections, in fact, APGA won only Anambra at the governorship election throughout the SE

socialmediaman:
Out of the 93 million eligible voters, 56 million people will vote, and the candidates will get the following:

Peter Obi - 19.5 million (mostly from PDP, APC, First Time voters)
Atiku Abubakar - 16.5 million (Traditional PDP, some APC, vote buying)
Tinubu - 15.5 million (Mostly core APC, a few PDP, vote buying)
Kwankwaso - 3.5 million (Mostly from NW)
Others - 1 million (Sowore and the rest who 'also ran' for presidency)8
------------------------------------------
Total 56 million
-------------------------------------------

My prediction.
Labour = 11.03m, and 1/4 in 25 States.
PDP = 9.31m, and 1/4 in 24 states
APC = 9.28m, and 1/4 in 20 states
NNPP = 3.94m, and 1/4 in 4 states
Others = <0.7m

Total voter turnout should be around 37% of 96m, which is 35.8m

socialmediaman:


It wasn't my stats now lol! By the way Igbos vote PDP mostly at the federal level from my observation. The state elections usually depend on the candidates presented by the parties. Look closely at the State governorship election of Lagos in 2019 and you'll see that PDP won only 21% of the votes at the state election but won 46% of the votes at the presidential election.

That also explains why Ojukwu's APGA could not win any state in the SE at the presidential elections, in fact, APGA won only Anambra at the governorship election throughout the SE

You have a solid point, and I agree with you.

But still, Igbos alone can't be 45% except you believe that they are the majority in a western state, Lagos!

If that's even true then the Igbos should get a vp or even be the governor of Lagos state, especially when they hate tinubu, apc so much.. Don't you think so? Remember SS are most likely to vote like the Igbos too considering the noise about SS and Igbos against apc.. This is the time to prove that both combined are more than 60% of Lagos population..


Note: if na true en, PDP for Don try field an Igbo man as vp Atleast to get the sentimental votes since at least 80% of the 45% would vote for them, then with an Igbo man it will shoot to 98%.. PDP go just win na... But they no say they will fail even more cos sentiment go enter am and the host go vote the acn to prove who really is who

Lazyreporta:


You have a solid point, and I agree with you.

But still, Igbos alone can't be 45% except you believe that they are the majority in a western state, Lagos!

If that's even true then the Igbos should get a vp or even be the governor of Lagos state, especially when they hate tinubu, apc so much.. Don't you think so? Remember SS are most likely to vote like the Igbos too considering the noise about SS and Igbos against apc.. This is the time to prove that both combined are more than 60% of Lagos population..


Note: if na true en, PDP for Don try field an Igbo man as vp Atleast to get the sentimental votes since at least 80% of the 45% would vote for them, then with an Igbo man it will shoot to 98%.. PDP go just win na... But they no say they will fail even more cos sentiment go enter am and the host go vote the acn to prove who really is who

The stat may truly be exaggerated, but even it wasn't, Igbos have not been usually keen at elections, but I suspect they may have become triggered by this 2023 election, and massively turn out.

It's like what has been happening in the US for example. Until very recently, as recent as 2020, there were counties that were majority blacks always ruled by minority whites. Why? because blacks weren't voting during election, until the police brutality became a very heated issue, that's when those dynamics started changing

Also, to your last point of fielding deputy governor. Remember the example of Ojukwu and OBJ that I gave you, Igbos don't necessarily vote for you because of tribe. They didn't vote Buhari the 2 times he contested election with Igbo running mates. In fact if you're banking on tribe from igbo man you may lose election. Igbos have been accused of not being together in the past etc

Chuksaluta:


My prediction.
Labour = 11.03m, and 1/4 in 25 States.
PDP = 9.31m, and 1/4 in 24 states
APC = 9.28m, and 1/4 in 20 states
NNPP = 3.94m, and 1/4 in 4 states
Others = <0.7m

Total voter turnout should be around 37% of 96m, which is 35.8m

Good and achievable!

Average voter turnout has usually been about 40% or less but i suspect it will be about 60% this time. This election has become very important to a lot of people especially Peter Obi supporters. Also, I don't think any of the candidates will win 25% in 24 states yet, i think there will be a run-off even with my original estimates

socialmediaman:


Good and achievable!

Average voter turnout has usually been about 40% or less but i suspect it will be about 60% this time. This election has become very important to a lot of people especially Peter Obi supporters. Also, I don't think any of the candidates will win 25% in 24 states yet, i think there will be a run-off even with my original estimates

You are right on the 25% being difficult to reach.

I expect average turn out to remain steady, or drop if BVAS is used. 90% of votes from previous election used incident forms. Moreover with a death rate of 1.1%, and migration there should be a drop of voters.

Chuksaluta:


You are right on the 25% being difficult to reach.

I expect average turn out to remain steady, or drop if BVAS is used. 90% of votes from previous election used incident forms. Moreover with a death rate of 1.1%, and migration there should be a drop of voters.

I like your estimates, very pragmatic. I looked at the numbers again. The presidential election usually has the highest turnout.

In 2015, there were 67 million registered voters, voter turnout for the presidential election was 43%.
In 2011, there were 73 million registered voters, voter turnout for the presidential election was 54%
In 2007, there were 61 million registered voters, voter turnout for the presidential election was 57%
In 2003, there were 60 million registered voters, voter turnout for the presidential election was 69%

So I think 60% is achievable, but like you pointed out, if BVAS is used, this may greatly reduce, though BVAS still doesn't solve the issue of vote buying, under age voting and the rest.

lhordspy:
93.5m registered voters.
We should be expecting 50m voters turn-out.


PDP - 15.5m votes
SDP - 500k votes
APC - 24m votes
LP - 5.5m votes
NNPP - 3m votes
Others - 1.5m votes

Note: Figures are subjected to changes as kwankwaso is surely stepping down for Tinubu.

Majority votes:
APC - Ekiti, Osun,kwara, Nasarawa, Kogi, Gombe,Ondo,Yobe, Jigawa, kaduna, lagos, Ogun, kastina,Bornu, Kebbi, zamfara, Oyo, Rivers

PDP - Enugu, Ebonyi, Niger, Adamawa, Bauchi, Edo, Imo, Taraba, Akwa ibom, delta, bayelsa, sokoto

LP - FCT, Abia, Anambra, benue, Plateau, cross river

NNPP - Kano

Why are you giving Enugu,ebonyi,IMO to pdp when obi will win? Edo is labour or apc.

Chuksaluta:


My prediction.
Labour = 11.03m, and 1/4 in 25 States.
PDP = 9.31m, and 1/4 in 24 states
APC = 9.28m, and 1/4 in 20 states
NNPP = 3.94m, and 1/4 in 4 states
Others = <0.7m

Total voter turnout should be around 37% of 96m, which is 35.8m

Apc 12 mil
Lp 10 mil
Pdp 8 mil
Nnpp 2 mil

fergie001:



|INEC Nigeria|

Invariably, they are saying Nigeria population 93Million are above 18 years out of 200million people? Hmmmmm I sense under age voting from somewhere

socialmediaman:


The stat may truly be exaggerated, but even it wasn't, Igbos have not been usually keen at elections, but I suspect they may have become triggered by this 2023 election, and massively turn out.

It's like what has been happening in the US for example. Until very recently, as recent as 2020, there were counties that were majority blacks always ruled by minority whites. Why? because blacks weren't voting during election, until the police brutality became a very heated issue, that's when those dynamics started changing

Also, to your last point of fielding deputy governor. Remember the example of Ojukwu and OBJ that I gave you, Igbos don't necessarily vote for you because of tribe. They didn't vote Buhari the 2 times he contested election with Igbo running mates. In fact if you're banking on tribe from igbo man you may lose election. Igbos have been accused of not being together in the past etc

OK, let's see how it's turn out then for 2023 for both obi and Lagos state government.. Since you believe they will vote massively this time..
I will intentionally avoid the part you said they don't vote for tribe for the sake of our initial argument

45 million for Tinubu

15 million for Atiku

5 million vote for Kwakwaso

3 million vote for sowore


2000 vote for Pandora man

garfield1:


Apc 12 mil
Lp 10 mil
Pdp 8 mil
Nnpp 2 mil

It's also a possibility. Next year election will be very close. Good for our democracy.