| Re: Realistic Election Permutation by JoeNL22(m): 9:53pm On Oct 28, 2022 |
wonder233:
Looking at it from that angle, I must say I agree with you Atiku can't have an edge over obi in the southwest. Lagos, oyo and Osun will definitely do well for obi....does he expect the south to vote for him after 8 Years of Buhari?......for example, my big bro hates politics, he doesn't know who he will vote for between obi and Tinubu, but he said Atiku is out of it. According to him...."I won't vote Atiku.....it's the turn of the south" I can't guarantee you obi will win the southwest, but I can guarantee you Atiku won't see 10% from the SW. 1 Like |
| Re: Realistic Election Permutation by marod(m): 12:07am On Oct 29, 2022 |
Even in the worse case scenario, Tinubu still wins. Its not about the percentage, but the total number of eligible voters in each region.
Let us consider the number and assume voters' turn out in each of these regions to be 50%.
NW - 22.67m - 11.34m
SW - 18.30m - 9.15m
SS - 15.20m - 7.60m
NC - 14.10m - 7.05m
NE - 12.80m - 6.40m
SE - 11.49m - 5.75m
Tinubu Atiku Obi
40% 30% 10% NW
4.54m 3.40m 1.13m
60% 20% 15% SW
4.58m 1.83m 1.37m
10% 25% 60% SS
0.76m 1.90m 4.56m
40% 35% 15% NC
2.82m 2.47m 1.06m
30% 55% 10% NE
1.92m 3.52m 0.64m
5% 10% 80% SE
0.29m 0.58m 4.6m
15.54m 13.7m 13.36m
This is the worst that can happen to Tinubu. Atiku can also perform slight better or slightly worse than this. This is the best result Obi can get. 2 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Realistic Election Permutation by marod(m): 1:13am On Oct 29, 2022 |
wonder233:
This permutation takes into cognizance the major factors that shape our elections in Nigeria, i.e ethnicity, religion, party loyalty and voter objectivity.
It also focuses on the three main contenders who stand realistic chances of clinching the race.
Analysis:
In the southwest, a combination of tribal loyalty and party factor will give Tinubu a win. While Atiku and Obi will share the rest equally. Atiku's share will majorly come from party loyalty while Obi's own will be from both tribal (ibos and others in lagos) and objectivity (yorubas who don't share the tribal sentiment).
In the Southeast and southsouth, fierce tribal loyalty will give Obi a big win (especially in the east) while Atiku will nick Tinubu to second place on account of party loyalty votes.
In the northeast, Atiku will take top spot narrowly edging Tinubu on account of religion and region of origin. But Tinubu will put up a good showing on account of his much loved Vice and strong party structure. Obi will have very minimal votes here.
But in the northwest, Atiku and Tinubu will swap places. This is on account of APC having a better party following and an appealing muslim-muslim ticket. Atiku will also do well as tribal and religious sentiments also favour him. Obi's perfomance will be most dismal here.
In the North central, party loyalty reigns supreme in this region for some inexplainable reasons. Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger are staunch APC states. Even Benue that has had it rough in this present regime somehow still give APC sizeable votes. For the religious factors, the Christian population isn't as substantial as people think. The four aforementioned states will give Tinubu a win in the region, while Atiku will come a close second on account of party structure and religious sentiments. And Obi a substantial 3rd on account of the bit of Christian sentiments.
OVERALL SUMMARY
Tinubu Atiku Obi
50% 25% 25% SW
8% 12% 80% SE
10% 15% 75% SS
42% 46% 12% NE
47% 45% 8% NW
40% 35% 25% NC
Verdict
The election is close to call, the actual number of voters that turn up will determine what these percentages will amount to in real numbers.
Tinubu seems to have a slight advantage as the areas he has good projections also historically post impressive turn outs. But whether they will be sufficiently motivated to for him is another thing altogether.
For Peter Obi, if Nigerians were more objective and less swayed by tribe, religion and party affiliations, he would have stood the best chances. But unfortunately, party loyalty is a big thing among a majority poor, uneducated population.
While for Atiku, he stands a realistic chance of upending Tinubu if he can manage to get tribe and religion to overtake party structure and loyalty in regions Tinubu looks set to take that he considers his backyard. And he has realized this and is going full throttle in that quest.
Inteesting times ahead. With this prediction, let us assume each zone has 50% voters' turnout. NW - 22.67m - 11.34m SW - 18.30m - 9.15m SS - 15.20m - 7.60m NC - 14.10m - 7.05m NE - 12.80m - 6.40m SE - 11.49m - 5.75m Tinubu Atiku Obi 50% 25% 25% SW 4.58m 2.29m 2.29m 8% 12% 80% SE 0.46m 0.69m 4.6m 10% 15% 75% SS 0.76m 1.14m 5.7m 42% 46% 12% NE 2.69m 2.94m 0.77m 47% 45% 8% NW 5.33m 5.10m 0.91m 40% 35% 25% NC 2.82m 2.47m 1.76m 16.64m 14.63m 16.03m 2 Likes 1 Share |
| Re: Realistic Election Permutation by wonder233: 11:16am On Oct 29, 2022 |
Thanks for doing the math indepth. marod:
With this prediction, let us assume each zone has 50% voters' turnout.
NW - 22.67m - 11.34m
SW - 18.30m - 9.15m
SS - 15.20m - 7.60m
NC - 14.10m - 7.05m
NE - 12.80m - 6.40m
SE - 11.49m - 5.75m
Tinubu Atiku Obi
50% 25% 25% SW
4.58m 2.29m 2.29m
8% 12% 80% SE
0.46m 0.69m 4.6m
10% 15% 75% SS
0.76m 1.14m 5.7m
42% 46% 12% NE
2.69m 2.94m 0.77m
47% 45% 8% NW
5.33m 5.10m 0.91m
40% 35% 25% NC
2.82m 2.47m 1.76m
16.64m 14.63m 16.03m
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| Re: Realistic Election Permutation by wonder233: 11:17am On Oct 29, 2022 |
I agree with you marod:
Even in the worse case scenario, Tinubu still wins. Its not about the percentage, but the total number of eligible voters in each region.
Let us consider the number and assume voters' turn out in each of these regions to be 50%.
NW - 22.67m - 11.34m
SW - 18.30m - 9.15m
SS - 15.20m - 7.60m
NC - 14.10m - 7.05m
NE - 12.80m - 6.40m
SE - 11.49m - 5.75m
Tinubu Atiku Obi
40% 30% 10% NW
4.54m 3.40m 1.13m
60% 20% 15% SW
4.58m 1.83m 1.37m
10% 25% 60% SS
0.76m 1.90m 4.56m
40% 35% 15% NC
2.82m 2.47m 1.06m
30% 55% 10% NE
1.92m 3.52m 0.64m
5% 10% 80% SE
0.29m 0.58m 4.6m
15.54m 13.7m 13.36m
This is the worst that can happen to Tinubu. Atiku can also perform slight better or slightly worse than this. This is the best result Obi can get. |
| Re: Realistic Election Permutation by wonder233: 11:20am On Oct 29, 2022 |
Lagos will do very well for Obi... But Oyo and Osun, I very much doubt. These states have a high rural population compared to Lagos. And for the rural populace, it is either tribe, religion or party affiliation unfortunately JoeNL22:
Atiku can't have an edge over obi in the southwest.
Lagos, oyo and Osun will definitely do well for obi....does he expect the south to vote for him after 8 Years of Buhari?......for example, my big bro hates politics, he doesn't know who he will vote for between obi and Tinubu, but he said Atiku is out of it. According to him...."I won't vote Atiku.....it's the turn of the south"
I can't guarantee you obi will win the southwest, but I can guarantee you Atiku won't see 10% from the SW. |
| Re: Realistic Election Permutation by JoeNL22(m): 11:31am On Oct 29, 2022 |
wonder233:
Lagos will do very well for Obi... But Oyo and Osun, I very much doubt. These states have a high rural population compared to Lagos. And for the rural populace, it is either tribe, religion or party affiliation unfortunately Rural areas also know what's going on through other forms of media. I am sure obi will spread in the rural areas |
