JoeNL22:

Exactly......na wetin I dey tell all these urchins......Tinubu can't win the core north, dey don't give southerners bloc votes.....No southerner has gotten 51% from the core north since 2003. Till now Tinubu hasn't released funds for campaign in the north. He knows they will chop his money. Na y baba they fear, they will collect his money....shout Tinubu....but in their meetings and cabals, its Atiku, some is even obi. Some Northerners are even saying they have not told them who to vote. Till now baba never start him campaign! He dey observe.....

Exactly, let's all work for the better of peter obi.

Bar some minor adjustments,like the percentage given to Tinubu in the South West which is much lower than he'll get and the percentage given to PDP in the South South which is smaller than they'll get,your analysis is close to what will eventually happen.

wonder233:
This permutation takes into cognizance the major factors that shape our elections in Nigeria, i.e ethnicity, religion, party loyalty and voter objectivity.
It also focuses on the three main contenders who stand realistic chances of clinching the race.

Analysis:
In the southwest, a combination of tribal loyalty and party factor will give Tinubu a win. While Atiku and Obi will share the rest equally. Atiku's share will majorly come from party loyalty while Obi's own will be from both tribal (ibos and others in lagos) and objectivity (yorubas who don't share the tribal sentiment).

In the Southeast and southsouth, fierce tribal loyalty will give Obi a big win (especially in the east) while Atiku will nick Tinubu to second place on account of party loyalty votes.

In the northeast, Atiku will take top spot narrowly edging Tinubu on account of religion and region of origin. But Tinubu will put up a good showing on account of his much loved Vice and strong party structure. Obi will have very minimal votes here.
But in the northwest, Atiku and Tinubu will swap places. This is on account of APC having a better party following and an appealing muslim-muslim ticket. Atiku will also do well as tribal and religious sentiments also favour him. Obi's perfomance will be most dismal here.

In the North central, party loyalty reigns supreme in this region for some inexplainable reasons. Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger are staunch APC states. Even Benue that has had it rough in this present regime somehow still give APC sizeable votes. For the religious factors, the Christian population isn't as substantial as people think. The four aforementioned states will give Tinubu a win in the region, while Atiku will come a close second on account of party structure and religious sentiments. And Obi a substantial 3rd on account of the bit of Christian sentiments.


OVERALL SUMMARY

Tinubu Atiku Obi
50% 25% 25% SW
8% 12% 80% SE
10% 15% 75% SS
42% 46% 12% NE
47% 45% 8% NW
40% 35% 25% NC

Verdict
The election is close to call, the actual number of voters that turn up will determine what these percentages will amount to in real numbers.
Tinubu seems to have a slight advantage as the areas he has good projections also historically post impressive turn outs. But whether they will be sufficiently motivated to for him is another thing altogether.
For Peter Obi, if Nigerians were more objective and less swayed by tribe, religion and party affiliations, he would have stood the best chances. But unfortunately, party loyalty is a big thing among a majority poor, uneducated population.
While for Atiku, he stands a realistic chance of upending Tinubu if he can manage to get tribe and religion to overtake party structure and loyalty in regions Tinubu looks set to take that he considers his backyard. And he has realized this and is going full throttle in that quest.
Inteesting times ahead.

3 reputable poll organizations have released result of their poll giving Obi victory in all the polls.

How did you arrive at your own result?

Imagine saying Tinubu will win Atiku in Northwest. If care is not taken, Tinubu will come third in Northwest behind Atiku and Kwankwaso.

I wonder if you people live in a hole.

wonder233:
You got the religious stats of Benue correctly. However, politically, Benue seem to have an almost Stockholm syndrome like mentality for APC and PDP, whether it is the mass iliteracy and extreme poverty in the state that is the cause, I don't know.
You also got the religious stat for Plateau correct, but it is not such a populated state, so in terms of raw numbers, that 75% might not be so much as to cancel the other shortfalls.
For Nasarawa, bro, you got it totally wrong. Nasarawa is at least 60% Muslim, don't let anyone deceive you. I think what people misconstrue as "huge Christian population" in some of these northern states is merely the fact that, these states have a recognizable portion of Christians compared to other contiguous states. Not that the Christians are so much that they form the majority. A case in point is Kaduna. Most people in the south erroneously think Kaduna is like 50-50 or 60-40 for Muslims a d Christians, but that is a fantasy, Kaduna is like 80-20 to the Muslims, no cap.
As for Kogi, Kwara, Niger, these states are low key almost more islamically fanatical than the Sokotos and Kanos.. I doubt Obi will see much from there

If I haven't lived in Nasarawa and Kaduna states, I would've believed the stats you gave. Like Nasarawa like Adamawa, many people do not know the two states have more christian populations than Muslims but unfortunately lack the power to change much politically.
As fir Kaduna, it's laughable that you think Christians form only 20% of the population. The Christians in Kaduna South are more than 20%, when you add the christian population in places like Zaria, Sabon Gari, Giwa, Kudan, Lere, Mskarfi you have something approaching 40%. Do you know the Catholic Church in Kaduna has three dioceses and 2 I think for the Anglicans? Think about that.
With how much they have suffered in the hands of El-Rufai and the APC Muslim-Muslim ticket, the people are ready.

Sia Atiku for president

A more realistic permutation
That the talakawa are not enthusiastic about atiku in the north is to Tinubus advantage. This could be as a result of, among other factors, that the northern political chiefs all acede that power should return to the south.

The west are With Atiku who want vote for APC and their Try and error

Yes. A Senatorial zone is roughly one-third of a state. The senatorial zone having the majority of southern kaduna Christians is always certain to produce a Christian senator.

kcnwaigbo:

So 20% control a Senatorial zone? Oga abeg fear God small

Chiefwhip01:
Exactly, let's all work for the better of peter obi.

God bless you

Bro, I also lived in Kaduna. If muslims used dioceses and have defined denominations like Anglican, Catholics, etc, then, given their population, there would have been at least 4 Muslim dioceses to every 1 Christian dioceses. The muslims are at least quadruple the Christians in Kaduna, it is not 60-40 at all, it is way way more than that.
Kaduna is almost the opposite of Plateau where the Christians far outnumber the muslims. It is a state like Taraba you have a 60-40 arrangement in favour of the Christians.
For neutrals who may not really be familiar with the north, you get an idea how they stack up with the politics. Religious divisiveness is highest there, so, who controls the numbers has the upper hand. The other takes deputy or nothing at all if your numbers are not so much. No matter the gragra of the hausa-fulani, they can't control a state they don't have majority population. They control Kaduna because they have a far superior population.

Okpeke22:

If I haven't lived in Nasarawa and Kaduna states, I would've believed the stats you gave. Like Nasarawa like Adamawa, many people do not know the two states have more christian populations than Muslims but unfortunately lack the power to change much politically.
As fir Kaduna, it's laughable that you think Christians form only 20% of the population. The Christians in Kaduna South are more than 20%, when you add the christian population in places like Zaria, Sabon Gari, Giwa, Kudan, Lere, Mskarfi you have something approaching 40%. Do you know the Catholic Church in Kaduna has three dioceses and 2 I think for the Anglicans? Think about that.
With how much they have suffered in the hands of El-Rufai and the APC Muslim-Muslim ticket, the people are ready.

Prinota:
The west are With Atiku who want vote for APC and their Try and error

Error.....which west are you talking about?

Na obi or Tinubu.....Atiku should not expect 25% from the southwest. Who would vote Atiku after 8 yrs of Buhari?

BATified2023:
according to op if tinubu can manage to win Kano through ganduje love,katsina through buhari n kaduna through el rufai n lagos he will neutralize whatever obi won both in south south n south east cos atiku will have little influence there

If tinubu wins just 3 south west states combined he will cancel whatever atiku or obi have to offer outside their region

If tinubu should add kogi,kwara,plateau n few other states he will emerge winner

U should realise I didn’t talk much about atiku,I know u are an obi supporter so I believe u should know better

50% votes of only Kano can cancel that of 3 states in d south east

U can see I didn’t also talk about other core north

Hope u know shetima is from borno?

Tinubu will win all south west states including OYO state.

FreeStuffsNG:

Nice effort! The reality is that Asiwaju will win and the gap over his opponents will be huuuge!
NE is going for Asiwaju due to Sen. Shettima.

How?
So you are saying they(NE) rather pick a VP over a president?. You must be Joking!......

garfield1:


Was abiola hausa

BEST QUESTION ever!

Amateurs are saying Hausas don't vote for other tribes........

HOW did OBJ win TWO terms

HOW did GEJ win

I am from the North, it's all about the Candidate.

Asiwaju has BEEN aligning(UNITY) with Northerners for decades SINCE he decided to vie for Presidential elections.

While other Southerner JUST started befriending NORTHERNERS because of the election........it's insincere!

Asiwaju has the FACTUAL PERFORMANCE record to show WHILE the other Southerner is just using the "Our Son", "I am a Christian " Sentiments to campaign.

Nigeria TODAY critically needs PERFORMANCE and UNITY to succeed NOT "Mr Humility" Nonsense!

JoeNL22:

Obviously you do not know the peculiarity of each zone. Zones like NE, NC and SS are not significantly homogenious. Borno is different from Adamawa as much as Taraba is different from Yobe in tribal make up so it makes sense to know why a Kanuri man sees the choice of being a V.P is not a choice between his VP chance and a Fulani from Adamawa becoming President.


Only Adamawa APC will face the pressure but they have the experience to handle the pressure if you consider that currently the state has PDP governor yet 2 out of its 3 senators are from APC despite the election for Presidency and NA holding same day. HE Atiku participated in that same election yet it produced 2 APC senators.

It's kind of confusing trying to give Obi an edge over Atiku in the SW.

Tinubu is surely winning some SW States, if not all.

And of course, Obi may do well in Lagos, but the rest of the states, I doubt it.

So, I can say, SW is more of Tinubu, Atiku, and then Obi.

FreeStuffsNG:
Obviously you do not know the peculiarity of each zone. Zones like NE, NC and SS are not significantly homogenious. Borno is different from Adamawa as much as Taraba is different from Yobe in tribal make up so it makes sense to know why a Kanuri man sees the choice of being a V.P is not a choice between his VP chance and a Fulani from Adamawa becoming President.


Only Adamawa APC will face the pressure but they have the experience to handle the pressure if you consider that currently the state has PDP governor yet 2 out of its 3 senators are from APC despite the election for Presidency and NA holding same day. HE Atiku participated in that same election yet it produced 2 APC senators.

So in other words!.........You are saying the NE will pick a VP over a president because he comes from what?......a minority tribe?....because the Kanuri hasn't produced a VP?

Bro......your assertions are wrong.....if that's how we vote. The north will never vote Yar'adua over Buhari in 2007 or Buhari Over Atiku in 2019.

The northwest should have been the stronghold of APC, but no!, u went to pick from your opposition zone. Because you want to what?......weak Atiku?. The shittema pick will be the downfall of Tinubu. In chess, we call the shittema pick "Exposing your Queen" and when you expose your queen in chess, its game over for you.

Someone says Shettima is loved in the north east. Bros, nobody likes him. Secondly, he is Kanuri, people don't like them

Tinubu will win all SW states

PDP will get more than those percentage

garfield1 have you done an analysis of NW and NC states? Tag me if you have done

Ttalk:
The projection is realistic enough. It is the Obidients that I pity most, many of them would not even vote if there is file scarcity like we are experiencing presently

Keep tell yourself that illogically assertion.......when you see the results rolling in! Don't be disappointed. I promise, it won't shock you. But it will shock me sha.....

Okpeke22:
Realistic permutation and you dismiss the christian population in the North Central as not being substantial enough as most people think. How much do you know of the zone, I doubt you know much
Now let me break it down for you as someone who has stayed in many of the states there for considerable number of years.
Benue State is 99% Christian and about 90% of them are OBIdient for president though APC may likely win the gubernatorial election.
Plateau State is about 75% Christian and majority, say 90% are OBIdient.
Nasarawa State is about 50-55% Christian and majority are OBIdient, I know so many Muslims there too who are OBIdient.
Kogi, Kwara and Niger States have same demography with Muslims dominating Niger States and I know many in those states are OBIdient.
Abuja is locked down for him.

So Obi will win the North Central.

In the South West, Obi will get more than the 25% you gave him because his popularity is growing there. Tinubu will win of course but Obi will get very massive votes there. The margin of victory may not even be as huge as you think.

In the North East, Obi is taking Taraba State, will get substantial votes in Adamawa, Bauchi and Gombe. Not too sure about Yobe and Borno.

Where Obi isn't expected to perform well is in the North West but look out for surprises particularly in Kaduna, Kebbi.

Don't mind 10k urchins, obi is their only fear and rightly so.

Okpeke22:
Realistic permutation and you dismiss the christian population in the North Central as not being substantial enough as most people think. How much do you know of the zone, I doubt you know much
Now let me break it down for you as someone who has stayed in many of the states there for considerable number of years.
Benue State is 99% Christian and about 90% of them are OBIdient for president though APC may likely win the gubernatorial election.
Plateau State is about 75% Christian and majority, say 90% are OBIdient.
Nasarawa State is about 50-55% Christian and majority are OBIdient, I know so many Muslims there too who are OBIdient.
Kogi, Kwara and Niger States have same demography with Muslims dominating Niger States and I know many in those states are OBIdient.
Abuja is locked down for him.

So Obi will win the North Central.

In the South West, Obi will get more than the 25% you gave him because his popularity is growing there. Tinubu will win of course but Obi will get very massive votes there. The margin of victory may not even be as huge as you think.

In the North East, Obi is taking Taraba State, will get substantial votes in Adamawa, Bauchi and Gombe. Not too sure about Yobe and Borno.

Where Obi isn't expected to perform well is in the North West but look out for surprises particularly in Kaduna, Kebbi.

Oga watch nasarawa tomorrow for obi's campaign.

successmatters:


Please allow these people operate on their false premise, after 8 years of killing people in the middle belt, they will all walk up and vote for another 8 years of killings.

Okay o.

Don't mind them jare.......I wonder who would want to vote APC & PDP after how many years of suffering & hardship

wonder233:
Unfortunately, people are not. Nigerians are not wiser. Tribal, religious and party affiliations are still the bane of our country. In the core north, in the deep southwest, people still tell people who to vote for, and they comply. It is the harsh reality. That is why politicians like the status quo of illiteracy, hunger, tribal and religious gaslighting. This is the reality

The people of SE, SS, SW and NC are too exposed to be influenced by politicians irrespective of the political parties involved . They know their left and right when it comes to voting for a right candidate during election.

This is the more reasons why some unpopular/unknown political parties are controlling some positions at the National Assembly apart from PDP and APC, even though some of them defected to bigger parties after election. What this means is that these 4 regions have an independent mind of their own.

But this not applicable in the NE and NW where they are heavily influenced by Tribal and religious affiliations. Even PDP was controlling Kastina state and other NE and NW ststes till 2015. The then PDP governors couldn't deliver their states, it was a total swap of goverment. The National chairman of then PDP Adamu Muazu couldn't deliver his Bauchi state too.

Stop hoping and be hiding your candidate in structure because in the SE, SS, SW and MB/NC no candidate would be saved by structure but personality during this presidential election. Then in NE and NW, tribal and religious affiliations have a lot of role to play

Many southerners are voting all parties at different levels during General elections..

Some of us are voting..
PDP at house assembly level
APC at Reps level
SDP at Senate level
APGA at Governorship level
Labour Party at presidential level..

You should understand 1 thing!, 2023 will be different especially in the SOUTH. But the CORE North will likely remain the same.

BafanaBafana:
Someone says Shettima is loved in the north east. Bros, nobody likes him. Secondly, he is Kanuri, people don't like them

Don't mind them bro......I wonder which individual will vote a boko haram sympathiser into power!

Atiku is winning Kaduna. I do not know the margins though. Peter Obi will come second due to his hold on the Southern parts. Atiku will also win Sokoto. Kwankwaso will win Kano and Jigawa.

I agree with you. You're spot on. The South will likely witness more changes, while the north will largely remain the same.

JoeNL22:


The people of SE, SS, SW and NC are too exposed to be influenced by politicians irrespective of the political parties involved . They know their left and right when it comes to voting for a right candidate during election.

This is the more reasons why some unpopular/unknown political parties are controlling some positions at the National Assembly apart from PDP and APC, even though some of them defected to bigger parties after election. What this means is that these 4 regions have an independent mind of their own.

But this not applicable in the NE and NW where they are heavily influenced by Tribal and religious affiliations. Even PDP was controlling Kastina state and other NE and NW ststes till 2015. The then PDP governors couldn't deliver their states, it was a total swap of goverment. The National chairman of then PDP Adamu Muazu couldn't deliver his Bauchi state too.

Stop hoping and be hiding your candidate in structure because in the SE, SS, SW and MB/NC no candidate would be saved by structure but personality during this presidential election. Then in NE and NW, tribal and religious affiliations have a lot of role to play

Many southerners are voting all parties at different levels during General elections..

Some of us are voting..
PDP at house assembly level
APC at Reps level
SDP at Senate level
APGA at Governorship level
Labour Party at presidential level..

You should understand 1 thing!, 2023 will be different especially in the SOUTH. But the CORE North will likely remain the same.

Many boko haram sympathizers are in the core north. Deep down, the average core northerner doesn't really disagree with the ideals of boko haram.

JoeNL22:

Don't mind them bro......I wonder which individual will vote a boko haram sympathiser into power!

Many people will. Tribe and religion are more important to Nigerians than suffering and hardship.

JoeNL22:

Don't mind them jare.......I wonder who would want to vote APC & PDP after how many years of suffering & hardship

Looking at it from that angle, I must say I agree with you

Donnie20:
It's kind of confusing trying to give Obi an edge over Atiku in the SW.

Tinubu is surely winning some SW States, if not all.

And of course, Obi may do well in Lagos, but the rest of the states, I doubt it.

So, I can say, SW is more of Tinubu, Atiku, and then Obi.

wonder233:
Many boko haram sympathizers are in the core north. Deep down, the average core northerner doesn't really disagree with the ideals of boko haram.

And the annoying thing is that the north will forever vote their own. In marketing we call it "herd mentality" It's crazy though......That's why I keep telling Tinubu's urchins that Atiku is their enemy not obi.

wonder233:
Many people will. Tribe and religion are more important to Nigerians than suffering and hardship.

The narrative will likely change......because people see what happens everyday. Truly the internet has made the world a global village