For me, Bola Tinubu is not in the race. He will struggle for third position with Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso and here are m reasons based on INEC historical data:

1. No presidential candidate has ever won the South since the fourth republic without Igbo and Edo backing.

2. No presidential candidate has ever won an election without winning their zones (in this case, North and South). Tinubu doesn't stand any chance to win Southern votes. He will likely come second behind Peter Obi.

For example, OBJ who is from the SW won the South, Yar'Adua from NW won the North in 2007, Jonathan from SS won the South while Buhari from NW won the North.

3. No leading Southern candidate has ever won a leading Northern candidate in the North since the fourth republic and no leading northern candidate has ever won a leading southern candidate in the south since the 4th republic.

By implication, Tinubu can never win Atiku in the whole North and Atiku can never win Peter Obi and Tinubu in the South. Since, Tinubu will likely lose the South to Peter Obi and the North to Atiku, he doesn't stand a chance to win the election.

4. Igbos have more registered voters than Yorubas. Here is the reason:

SW has 18 million voters

Lagos has 7 million voters

SE has 11 million voters

When you remove Lagos voters from SW total voters, you'll have 11 million voters each for SW and SE.

When you add the Igbos living in Lagos, Kano, Kaduna, Abuja, Katsina, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Delta, Cross Rivers, Benue, Bayelsa, Rivers State, Plateau, Niger, Sokoto and Ibadan and other parts of Nigeria, you'll understand that there are likely to be more Igbo voters than Yorubas.

5. Anambra bloc votes alone can neutralize the SW win margin

For example:

In 2015, Tinubu and Osinbanjo won the whole SW for Buhari with 500k votes

In 2015, Peter Obi's APGA (which adopted GEJ as its consensus candidate) won Anambra for GEJ with 620k votes.

By implication, if the 2015 election has happened in only Anambra, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo, and Osun, GEJ would have won Buhari with 120k votes despite Buhari winning in 5/7 of the states.

In 2019, Tinubu ad Osinbanjo won the whole SW for Buhari with 260k votes

In 2019, Peter Obi won Anambra for Atiku with 491k votes

By implication, Anambra bloc votes neutralized SW votes with over 280k votes, meaning Atiku won have won the election with that margin if the election had held in only Anambra, Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo, and Osun, even though Buhari won more states than Atiku.

VoteObi2023:


Based on this data, there is no way Tinubu can win the 2023 election.

FACT

DaddyFreeze2020:
All Christians resident in the North who are from the North have opted for Peter Obi.
Pay a visit to the major Churches in the North like COCIN, EYN, HEKAN, ECWA, Lutheran, Catholic, The Brethren etc and all Pentecostal churches. Its Peter Obi "the God sent man" they keep talking of

Stakeholders:
Some people did calculation like this before APC primary but it turns out to be the less competitive presidential primary I have witness.

I pray anyone that emerge among the contestants may it be a beneficial to me and my household. Amen

Stakeholders:
Some people did calculation like this before APC primary but it turns out to be the less competitive presidential primary I have witness.

I pray anyone that emerge among the contestants may it be a beneficial to me and my household. Amen

micellgevity:
Beer parlour political analysis.

VoteObi2023:

What makes it beer parlor analysis?

1. Has any presidential candidate won Southern votes without Igbo support?

2. Has any candidate won the general election without winning their zone (North or South)

3. Has any leading Southern candidate defeat a leading Northern candidate in the North?

4. Are SW registered voters not 11 million when you remove Lagos voters?

5. Has Anambra not been cancelling out entire SW votes since the introduction of card readers?

BATified2023:
1… buhari won twice without igbos support.
Don’t forget he called u ordinary 5% n dot in d circle n still won


So rest on that

2…the only aspirant that it’s likely he won’t win his zone is peter obi cos I have never seen any big wig support him aside inconsequential nincoompoop demarketing him by insulting everyone

Even his state governor is not supporting him


3…..it’s like u were still in d womb when abiola defeated tofa in d north,many of u are still kids who know nothing about Nigeria,election n her history

What about when Jonathan emerged president,I guess northerners didn’t contest then?

4…….what’s d rationale behind removing lagos?
Is Lagos no longer part of south

5….sorry for wasting my time on u,u are nothing but a delusional boy to believe anambra will cancel south west vote even when only oyo n osun combined will cancel all what south east have to offer

Apophenia24k:



Problem with most of you is logical reasoning.. someone brings out fact and figure and you results in your normal name calling, it's statistically impossible for Tinubu to win except Kwankwoso or Atiku step down for him. You can do the maths yourself bro

DaddyFreeze2020:
All Christians resident in the North who are from the North have opted for Peter Obi.
Pay a visit to the major Churches in the North like COCIN, EYN, HEKAN, ECWA, Lutheran, Catholic, The Brethren etc and all Pentecostal churches. Its Peter Obi "the God sent man" they keep talking of.

I wonder what makes those few BAT urchins online and even in the South West think Tinubu can win.
It obvious they don't travel around.

joyandfaith:


Brillant!! Atiku would win north while Obi would win South. The only hope for Obi is if Tinubu is disqualified and Kwankwaso shared northern votes with Atiku. If Kwankwaso withdraws from race even with Tinubu on the race, Atiku wins.

BATified2023:
1… buhari won twice without igbos support.
Don’t forget he called u ordinary 5% n dot in d circle n still won


So rest on that

2…the only aspirant that it’s likely he won’t win his zone is peter obi cos I have never seen any big wig support him aside inconsequential nincoompoop demarketing him by insulting everyone

Even his state governor is not supporting him


3…..it’s like u were still in d womb when abiola defeated tofa in d north,many of u are still kids who know nothing about Nigeria,election n her history

What about when Jonathan emerged president,I guess northerners didn’t contest then?

4…….what’s d rationale behind removing lagos?
Is Lagos no longer part of south

5….sorry for wasting my time on u,u are nothing but a delusional boy to believe anambra will cancel south west vote even when only oyo n osun combined will cancel all what south east have to offer

ganisucks:


Tinubu is not Abiola, and he doesn't have the military support to rig for him like Babangida did for Abiola. You are also an indomie generation, don't claim what you're not. I lived a stone's throw from one of the polling centres during that election. And I can tell you for a fact, it was more corrupt than the election in 99. Abiola and Tofa's men were sharing money like if it was sand.

BATified2023:
but abiola won tofa right?

duro4chang:
Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the incming president. The best man for the job. The game changer. The expected one. May God bless him with the wisdom to lead the country in the fear of God. I congratulate him in advance.

BATified2023:
I countered d so called facts n they were all fallacies

Vote4Obi:


This is one of the die-hard Tinubu supporters who has refused to allow common sense prevail. He will keep saying Tinubu will win even after Peter Obi is announced winner

Vote4Obi:


This is one of the die-hard Tinubu supporters who has refused to allow common sense prevail. He will keep saying Tinubu will win even after Peter Obi is announced winner

Superwave16320:
If Peter Obi come second in the 2023 Presidential election make I die suddenly with my entire family. I am betting on second not even first so you know how he is Just a pretender.