How rural Nigerians may vote in 2023 presidential poll, by Nextier Survey

Some Nigerians in rural areas have declared that issues of insecurity, unemployment, weak economy and bad governance would largely influence their voting choices ahead of the 2023 presidential poll.

A study of results obtained from recent opinion polls conducted among registered voters in rural communities across the country shows that eight out of 10 respondents (83.16 per cent) insist on not changing their minds before the polls.

The independent survey conducted by Nextier, a policy think-tank, largely entails a face-to-face poll of registered voters in rural communities in 12 states in Nigeria.

The survey defines rural communities as local government areas without tertiary educational institutions. The researchers intentionally excluded state capitals and other urban areas, which other recent surveys had concentrated on.

The survey team conducted the polls in two states in each of the six geopolitical zones in the country, targeting one Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)-controlled state and one All Progressives Congress (APC)-controlled state, in each geopolitical region.

The APC and PDP are the major political parties with vast membership and ‘structures’ across all geopolitical zones. Nigeria has six geopolitical zones: North Central, North East, North West, South South, South East, and South West.

To ensure objectivity, the survey excluded the home states of the leading presidential and vice presidential candidates of the major parties.

In the survey results released over the weekend, Nextier said it used a sample size of 2,000 respondents. The states in the survey included Nasarawa (APC), Benue (PDP), Gombe (APC), Bauchi (PDP), Kebbi (APC), Sokoto (PDP), Cross River (APC), Edo (PDP), Imo (APC), Abia (PDP), Ogun (APC), and Oyo (PDP).

Survey respondents stated that radio, social media, and family/friends are the main channels through which they get information on the presidential candidates and make their choices.

It is instructive that with just about three months to the elections, eight out of 10 respondents “are definite that nothing will make them change their minds and vote for another candidate.”

The survey generated a margin of error of 2.2 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence interval. The survey sample population was representative of age and gender demographics in the states, as backed up by the graphics released alongside the report.
It further emphasised that all survey respondents are registered to vote in the 2023 elections.

“The poll yielded key insights into voter preferences and the key issues that could shape the 2023 presidential election.

“76.2 per cent of survey respondents stated that Nigeria is moving in the wrong direction. Survey respondents stated that insecurity, bad governance, unemployment and a weak economy are the most important issues in Nigeria today they want someone to solve,” a summary of the report explains.

Also, “among survey respondents in rural communities in 12 Nigerian states, Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu are preferred by respondents with no educational attainments or people who chose not to disclose their educational status.”

Overall, polling on voting intention shows Peter Obi leading with 40.37 per cent of the survey respondents, with Atiku Abubakar at 26.7 per cent while Bola Tinubu is at 20.47 per cent.

The regional view provides a clearer definition of survey respondents’ voting preferences. Atiku Abubakar leads in North West with 59.8 per cent and in the North East with 50.3 per cent, with Bola Tinubu as second in those regions with 25.4 per cent and 27.2 per cent, respectively.

Peter Obi leads in the North Central with 59.8 per cent, South South with 67.3 per cent and South East with 94 per cent.

The South West is the most contested region, with Bola Tinubu leading with 37.4 per cent and Peter Obi in second place with 24 per cent.

About 19.8 per cent of the surveyed voters in the region are still undecided on their preferred candidate. Also, on the ‘net favourability’ index, Atiku Abubakar is at +17.3 per cent, while Bola Tinubu follows at 4.98 per cent. Peter Obi garnered +30 per cent, while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party has the least net favourability among the four leading candidates at -8.70 per cent.

https://guardian.ng/news/how-rural-nigerians-may-vote-in-2023-presidential-poll-by-nextier-survey/

Mod, this is FP material

We must dismantle the status quo of poverty, no road, tribe, party etc.
Change is harder but when it comes, the majority benefits.

We pray and hope that this translates to real votes that count when election comes...

I would keep saying it

I don't know if Peter obi would eventually win

But anyone saying he doesn't stand a chance is far from reality

Even if you don't like Peter obi on thing no one can deny is Peter obi and obidient movement have exceeded every expectations

Peter Obi is winning this election. Him being only Christian among the top 4 is an advantage to him.

This is still not on FP after at least 3 threads have been opened since yesterday.

It is very telling.

This is very comprehensive....


Peter Obi !!!!

Peter Obi is the next president Republic of Nigeria!

ANAP is coming.

Ok

Obi is coming

Peter Obi is our next president. The deities of our land are behind him

Obi will win next year.D poll even said dat only iliterates or those with low educational achievement support tinubu.agbado urchins do u hear dat?

asuraking:
Obi will win next year.D poll even said dat only iliterates or those with low educational achievement support tinubu.agbado urchins do u hear dat?

They were being polite. They actually mean only those who are likely to sell their vote will vote Tinubu.

Peter Obi, the one and most competent candidate that Nigeria can produce in the 2023 presidential election, not the other candidate that was doing advertisement for baba blue.

Why have the Mods not pushed this news to front page. This is more than 24hrs this news break.

Well...

mrvitalis:
I would keep saying it

I don't know if Peter obi would eventually win

But anyone saying he doesn't stand a chance is far from reality

Even if you don't like Peter obi on thing no one can deny is Peter obi and obidient movement have exceeded every expectations

LOl

You know more than a sitting governor, an erudite scholar, a first class economist, a Cambridge product who categorically state that Obi knows he won't come distant third and he knows we know that too right?

February no far again

This is a proper poll, using highly scientific, mixed methods methodology with an acceptable sample size, appropriate inclusion/exclusion criteria, and reasonably reliable outcome.

The reality will hit naysayers like a thunderbolt. But if the grand game is to compromise the election and scutter the will of the people, then armageddon will descend on Nigeria. It has been a long time coming anyway.

Them must hear word.

NigeriaIsGreat:
LOl

You know more than a sitting governor, an erudite scholar, a first class economist, a Cambridge product who categorically state that Obi knows he won't come distant third and he knows we know that too right?

February no far again

You know more than an ex governor who took on the PDP at the peak of their power with a party that's 3 months old without a single elected official behind it and won ?

You know more than all rating agency ?

You might be the most intelligent person on earth but jealousy can stop you from being logical

mrvitalis:

You know more than an ex governor who took on the PDP at the peak of their power with a party that's 3 months old without a single elected official behind it and won ?

You know more than all rating agency ?

You might be the most intelligent person on earth but jealousy can stop you from being logical

Lol

Nobody jealous someone who's destined not to win

IGBO cannot rule the ZOO

Sniper go sell well in 2023 because many resident urchins can't bear the shame of the disgrace that they will get in 2023.

I hope this comes to pass

But then again, there is something we Nigerians are not talking about.

Its one thing for Peter obi to win

And another thing for him to be allowed to rule and change the country for the better.


I am sure we all saw what happened to jonathan? That would be child's play compared to what would happen if Peter obi wins. They would make his government ungovernable.


There are way too many criminals and "sudden billionaires" in this country. You think they will sit and watch Peter obi make them go broke by changing how things are done for the good of nigerians? Nahhhhhhhhh


To the SENSIBLE obidients, as you are shouting you will vote Peter obi, be getting ready to japa even if it's ghana because this Nigeria I am looking at...it is not getting better in our life time.

Front page pls

Cc: Seun, Mynd44, OAM4J

Who will win before if not Peter Obi

It has to be Peter Obi because he's loved and generally accepted by the Nigerian people

Tinubu and Atiku are no option , they got too many baggages on there head , nobody cares about them because they are too corrupt

NigeriaIsGreat:
Lol

Nobody jealous someone who's destined not to win

IGBO cannot rule the ZOO

You are talking like you can stop anything ... powerless bat feeling funky on a faceless forum

I dare you to post this thing on your Facebook account screenshot it and get 100k if you are not a coward