Moh247:


Take out PVC datas from Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, and add Lagos , Oyo and Osun

This state alone without adding KKK states would be very key in winning

Tinubu started a tribal campaign, Atiku is capitalizing on it in the north

The power dynamics is too much in this country and some of you don’t know what is going on

Buhari’s voting bloc in the North East was because he was governor of the whole Northeastern region and they liked him because of “Integrity”.

Tinubu won’t get the voting bloc automatically because of Shettima. Atiku will do much better than he did especially among the Hausas and other tribes in Yobe and Bauchi. There will be no bloc votes, only Buhari has that privilege, just like Peter Obi has now in the south which he can’t transfer to another person

By the way, Bauchi people are not Kanuris per se, there’s just a very small percentage of the population, (maybe less than 10%) that share common ancestry with Kanuris

Moh247:


Take out PVC datas from Borno, Yobe, Bauchi, and add Lagos , Oyo and Osun

This state alone without adding KKK states would be very key in winning

KKK states are not very consequential because there won't be block votes there. Even a blind man can see that.

Kwankwaso will get many votes in Kano and katsina, as well as Atiku.

Nobody is winning landslide there.
This analysis doesn't even make any sense.

We should be focusing on places where one can get Bloc votes to draw decisive conclusions.

Tinubu cannot get block votes in southwest

Moh247:




By February next year, you would understand Nigerians are more loyal to ethnicity than religion

God sent Obi to give Tinubu and South an easy win..

Hausa and Kanuri don't really care after Buhari's tenure,


.

am always surprise with the way u annelize things, it will shock u,

Yes I agree with you that Tinibu did not factor in PO. However, in my analysis, even if Tinibu had picked a pastor as running mate, northern Christian still wouldn’t vote for him. As a matter of fact, most Christian both in the north and south wouldn’t vote for Tinibu, and still lose so votes to Atiku. So in other to tighten the northern Muslim votes, he picked the MM so as to ganer thier votes. Upon that, I still feel the battle is between the PDP and APC because the both have the spread and foot soldiers to go dirty (which the will) when the need arises.PO has to charge his supporters to guard thier votes with all thier will if he wants to stand a chance.
Feb23 can’t come any sooner above all. The elections has gone tribal and religious

Osamabinladenik:
your analysis is assuming that Tinubu will get majority votes in the north.

You are in for a shocker dude

He thinks that because they love Buhari in the NE, they’ll automatically vote for Tinubu. Power is not transferred that way.

In the last election, Kano overwhelmingly voted for Buhari while Ganduje was struggling to win reelection even as a sitting governor

There's no permutation under heaven that will give Peter Obi a win. He should just forget it and cash out

Moh247:




By February next year, you would understand Nigerians are more loyal to ethnicity than religion

God sent Obi to give Tinubu and South an easy win..

Hausa and Kanuri don't really care after Buhari's tenure,


.

If Nigeria are more loyal to ethnicity how do you now expect housa and kanuri to abandon Atiku and Kwankwaso and vote Tinubu?

Ogbuefi2020:

If Nigeria are more loyal to ethnicity how do you now expect housa and kanuri to abandon Atiku and Kwankwaso and vote Tinubu?

Atiku is a Fulani from Cameroon, he is neither Hausa nor Kanuri

Tingotoe:
There's no permutation under heaven that will give Peter Obi a win. He should just forget it and cash out

You ain't God!

Moh247:


Atiku is a Fulani from Cameroon, he is neither Hausa nor Kanuri

lol..read what you type again my man....

Moh247:


Do you know Fulanis are not even majority tribe in the North yet they have ruled

For now I see Kanuris and Hausa voting massively for Shetima as long as Tinubu can guarantee fairness and equity

The North especially Hausa are ready for power rotation and a typical Hausa man is honest and just

children discussing northern/ Nigerian politics. So so sentimental and without objectivism. You are right that Fulani is not the majority tribe in the north but you don't know that the Fulani rules the north politically, traditionally and religiously. Let me educate you with evidence.
Check the entire core northern governor's, how many of them are non Fulani? Check the Emir's, the Fulani rules including kwara, a predominantly Yoruba state. I'm in gwari land in niger state, the Chief Imam in the masalaci(mosque) here is a Fulani, and that is how it's all over here. I lived in katsina since I was 13 and married there before I left there for Zaria.
Bottom line, Fulani is minority tribe in the north but they are the real power brokers in the north. That's why from shagari till today all the democratically elected presidents from the north are fulanis.
Argue with facts.

I still don't think Peter Obi is a factor yet..

Little sampling of who and who has PVC among my friends who are supporters of Peter Obi indicates non of them have PVC.

It's a huge concerns that these movements is actually trying to make it massive, so that genuine undecided voters who have PVCs can vote Peter Obi..thinking it's a popular opinion.
Those that are actually canvassing for votes for Obi seems not to have PVC..atleast, those I know.

Will this work...time will tell.

Osamabinladenik:
Fulani/Hausa.

So Hausa people will leave a Fulani man to vote for Yoruba?
Use your head na.
How can Hausa people leave the Juicy presidential seat to vote for VP?

Do you reason?

Atiku is not really a core Hausa man, he's Chamba from Adamawa state. My hausa accent is better than his.

The oloriburuku Igbo fool was even making me feel like I am no longer a Christian.

How many more Yoruba pastor do you want to break it down that they will be voting Tinubu ? I am a redeemer n Bola Ahmed Tinubu is my candidate.

For Obi Pandora to dream of my vote he must explain why his tribesmen the igbos stone Awolowo with his Christian Christian ticket n rather vote Tofa ahead of MKO who won Kano Tofa home state ?

This is extra, to fully secure my vote they should tell me how many Yorubas Obi nominated as commission in his 8 years of endemic looting in Anambra and tell me how many igbos Tinubu as in his own 8 years

Moh247:




By February next year, you would understand Nigerians are more loyal to ethnicity than religion

God sent Obi to give Tinubu and South an easy win..

Hausa and Kanuri don't really care after Buhari's tenure,


.

West1side:
The oloriburuku Igbo fool was even making me feel like I am no longer a Christian.

How many more Yoruba pastor do you want to break it down that they will be voting Tinubu ? I am a redeemer n Bola Ahmed Tinubu is my candidate.

For Obi Pandora to dream of my vote he must explain why his tribesmen the igbos stone Awolowo with his Christian Christian ticket n rather vote Tofa ahead of MKO who won Kano Tofa home state ?

The most anoying part for me is my mum used to be a Christian still attend churches, I freely read bible anytime, half of my family are christians and we don't even see any reason to discriminate yet this people want to mess up everything we achieved through peace and tolerance over their greed

Moh247:




By February next year, you would understand Nigerians are more loyal to ethnicity than religion

God sent Obi to give Tinubu and South an easy win..

Hausa and Kanuri don't really care after Buhari's tenure,


.

E go shock you

Correct

Moh247:


Do you know Fulanis are not even majority tribe in the North yet they have ruled

For now I see Kanuris and Hausa voting massively for Shetima as long as Tinubu can guarantee fairness and equity

The North especially Hausa are ready for power rotation and a typical Hausa man is honest and just

Keep consoling yourself, after all you are supporting a hopeless renewed hope93 that was flushed down the drain by same people in power!

Tinubu is unelectable. If he wins by any remote chance, he will be disqualified

So true!
Why it is ALWAYS good to “do the right & leave the rest to God!”

praxs:
Yes I agree with you that Tinibu did not factor in PO. However, in my analysis, even if Tinibu had picked a pastor as running mate, northern Christian still wouldn’t vote for him. As a matter of fact, most Christian both in the north and south wouldn’t vote for Tinibu, and still lose so votes to Atiku. So in other to tighten the northern Muslim votes, he picked the MM so as to ganer thier votes. Upon that, I still feel the battle is between the PDP and APC because the both have the spread and foot soldiers to go dirty (which the will) when the need arises.PO has to charge his supporters to guard thier votes with all thier will if he wants to stand a chance.
Feb23 can’t come any sooner above all. The elections has gone tribal and religious

Tinubu cannot massively get core northern votes when Atiku, kwankwaso are in the picture. Tinubu doesn't have the kind of popularity Buhari has in the North. Moreso, APC's poor performance will also affect him. So many Muslim Northerners will not vote APC because they are so disappointed that APC failed to fulfill almost all the promises made to them. If Tinubu doesn't do well in the North, he will not win the election because it's very clear that South South and Southeast belong to Obi.

Moh247:


Do you know Fulanis are not even majority tribe in the North yet they have ruled

For now I see Kanuris and Hausa voting massively for Shetima as long as Tinubu can guarantee fairness and equity

The North especially Hausa are ready for power rotation and a typical Hausa man is honest and just

Only you just said above that by February he’d realize that Nigerians are more loyal to tribe than religion.

Now, the same you are saying that Kanuris and Hausa will vote Tinubu.

Why such inconsistency and incoherence in thought?

Penguin2:


Only you just said above that by February he’d realize that Nigerians are more loyal to tribe than religion.

Now, the same you are saying that Kanuris and Hausa will vote Tinubu.

Why such inconsistency and incoherence in thought?

Is any Hausa man contesting?! Atiku is Bantu Fulani, Kwankwaso is Fulani from Kano, and Shetima is a Kanuri man

Why do you Ibos love mixing up tribes

Moh247:


Is any Hausa man contesting?! Atiku is Bantu Fulani, Kwankwaso is Fulani from Kano, and Shetima is a Kanuri man

Why do you Ibos love mixing up tribes

Garfield1, Kyase, Moh247 said Kwankwaso is not Hausa.

Penguin2:


Garfield1, Kyase, Moh247 said Kwankwaso is not Hausa.

Kwankwaso father is a fulani ruler.I noticed this since last year.cc fergie001, confirm....

The north only votes for or give bloc votes to pure fulanis from royal families from the northwest...shagari,ahmadu bello,yaradua,buhari arevfrom royal/aristocratic lineages.they look down on Hausa fulanis from ne,nc..atiku is not fulani but bachama/kilba.he cannot get those votes

traihit:


You keep living in delusions and figuring out stuffs in your head.....not because you can't think in broader terms but because you willfully decided not to think since you're fed by the politicians who would soon forget you as soon as they clinch onto power.

Instead of fighting because of less than 100K per month, why not fight for a future where you kids will feel safe to live and as a father you'll have the confidence of meeting your house's basic needs?

Stop the unprofitable work and stand for the truth.

Moh247 PandoraObi Seunmsg sarrki etrouble Abdul05 and others, I will like you guys to think about your future and follow this golden advice. Think of tomorrow, how your end shall be.

traihit:


You can see the handwriting on the wall already bro.....

It's either you go for it or not. FYI, I ain't Igbo and I wasn't a supporter of Obi till Tinubu, because of his desperation, redefined the candidacy system since 1999.

If he's that desperate especially when the country needs to be calmed, how much more when he clinches power?

Tinubu at the height of his governance was a technocrat, no doubt. However, can the present Tinubu be accountable to Nigeria when he gets to office? You know the answer except you're lying to yourself.


For now, Nigeria needs an accountable leader. I dare say that Buhari is more engaging that Tinubu. Tinubu will likely come out only when he's been insulted too much.

In short, Nigeria of today can't afford to have Tinubu presidency. You should be praying against it too.

Like it or hate it BAT is next Nigeria president,..
if obi win one state, na rigging..

Osamabinladenik:
The APC Muslim-Muslim ticket was specifically designed for PDP. For me, the idea of that ticket was based on the assumption that it can steal many votes from Atiku in the core Muslim northern region, it was never meant to factor a Christian southern aspirant.

This miscalculation is not surprising as APC didn't really see Peter Obi as a threat before now. They thought it was an euphoria that will soon die, obviously that isn't the case.

Is the Muslim-Muslim ticket working as expected?, No one knows for sure but from the body language of Nigerians, it seems to be backfiring. The reasons are as follows:

1. This has raised suspicion within the Christians voting Bloc in Southwest. Whether or not it's necessary but the truth remains that Tinubu will lose many votes on religious basis in Southwest because many Yoruba Christians will feel safer voting for another Christian irrespective of his tribe. This is because they are weary of supposed islamization of Nigeria.

2. Peter obi is taking full advantage of this miscalculation. It's no surprise he's getting warm reception at many Christian gatherings.
APC didn't expect that to happen because they underestimated him. He wasn't the reason for the Muslim-Muslim ticket in the first place

3. APC has automatically lost many northern Christian votes to Peter obi.

4. APC is now left with yoruba Muslims in the west then will battle with Atiku for the votes of northern Muslims. This wouldn't have been the case if they had just picked a Christian running mate because many people won't really vote for Tinubu on the basis of competence.

Conclusion: A christian running mate would have increased APC'S chances of winning the election

Some assertions may be right but APC/Tinubu predicted all eventualities before picking a Muslim running mate. Some analysis concerning 2023 election should capture the true permutation on which Presidential election can be won, INEC requisite of winning Presidential election.
The requisite is, a candidate has to win majority of votes and 25% of total votes in at least each of the 24 states across the 6 geopolitical zones of the country.
In all honesty, Peter Obi can't get 25% in more than 2 states in the North. Some states that Peter Obi supporters delusionally think he can win election are adherent supporters of PDP/Atiku and no amount of pressure or religious bigotry will change their voting pattern. Peter Obi will get fine bloc of votes but it is literally impossible for him to satisfy the criteria of winning Presidential election (first of all, he can't get majority of votes talk less of other requirements).
On the other hand, APC already has 22 states and I'm very much upbeat by the surreptitious plan of APC to win not less than 19 of those States with not majority of votes (at least 50%) and and target 25% in other States. APC has bigger chances than other parties.
Peter Obi and Kwankwaso are only making more damage to PDP, Atiku would've been projected as a man waiting for inauguration if not because of LP and NNP but the chances are vanishing.
Many things have been aspersed on Northern Muslims concerning religion but today it is obvious and plain who are traders of fanaticism in Nigeria, going from one religious house to another making the election look religious but the North don't even care about what they say or do. If North is truly fanstic as it was painted, the North would've collectively canvass for Tinubu for Muslims to retain power for longer years but we aren't interested in the bad game of religion as played in some quotas.
It is left for Yoruba Christian to vote based on religion and see what religion will bring to them.
Everyone should expect and prepare for the consequences of their choice. Nobody should come here and talk abt religion and politics again, the sun rises and we have seen plainly the agenda of everyone!

Osamabinladenik:
I still don't see why an average Hausa man will prefer to vote for a Kanuri man as vice president instead of voting a fulani man as president..

Your logic doesn't add up

I understand that you want Tinubu to win but that logic is flawed. That's even if it's true that this election is only on tribal basis

Atiku is a hong. A minority tribe.
Why are you guys calling him a fulani man?
All these southerners. Una go dey south dey analyse North politics. Trust the North,they will leave you to indulge in your foolery if it will benefit them.

Maybe you guys think North has only 3 or 4 tribes.

descarado:

Atiku is a hong. A minority tribe.
Why are you guys calling him a fulani man?
All these southerners. Una go dey south dey analyse North politics. Trust the North,they will leave you to indulge in your foolery if it will benefit them.

Maybe you guys think North has only 3 or 4 tribes.

I still do not see why notherners will vote Tinubu ahead of Atiku

SmartPolician:
Well, the Yorubas are not so obsessed with religion like the other major tribes in Nigeria.

If a Yoruba is voting for you, he or she will rarely consider your religion before making their decision. Forget what you see on Nairaland and the senseless posts of MURIC, they are very liberal.

That's why the South West is often considered the swing region of Nigeria. Voting patterns of most regions are predictable, but South West isn't.

This is why they remain the only tribe in Nigeria comfortable with inter-religious marriages. For instance, Bola Tinubu is a Muslim and married a Christian wife. This rarely happens among other ethnic groups in Nigeria.

Very big lie.
Stop hyping yourself.
Go to Northern Nigeria and see inter religious marriage happening everyday. They don't make noise like you guys.

It's no big deal. And if any other southern tribe mixed like yoruba, the same will happen.
So stop. Wonder why the hype.